Brazilian Shipping Industry:
Opportunities for O&G Supply


                       Dr. Roberto Giannini

   Sao Paulo & Singapore – July 2nd, 2012
Where are we?


                       Paris    Good
                               Morning




                                         Singapore



     São Paulo    Good
                 Evening
Presentation Contents
Brazilian Economy Overview
stereotyped images of Brazil
      Brazil: Facts and Figures




         When you hearbeauties…
         OrBrazilian Team about Brazil
            our natural
          you probably imagine…
                                      Football
     Beach


                Beautiful woman
                                     Carnival

     Samba
               The Carnival Parade
Another way to see BrazilFigures
     Brazil: Facts and

These images are correct
      But we are much more than that
      Agriculture                    Life science
          We are a Country of Innovation
                  Military jets Knowledge
     Defense industry

                     satellites

   Connectivity
            Sophisticated products
          Air crafts                  Huge industry
                                     Sustainability
Fifth larger Country in the world
(about the size of continental US – except Alaska)

     8.514 million km2 of continuous area
   (around 50% of the South America area)

  Population around 195 million inhabitants
(About 50% of the South America population)

        Strongly diversified economy
 (Mineral, agriculture, Industry and Services)

        Sixth larger GDP in the World
      (near 65% of South America GDP)
Brazil: Facts andof Brazil
              Federative Republic Figures

National flag                                        Coat of Arms




                              Brazil is a Federation of 26 States

                              Government: Presidential republic
                4.400 km
                              Capital City: Brasília
                  4.600 km




                              literacy: 86,4%

                              Unemployment rate: 4,7%

                              Inflation rate: 4,5%

                              Local currency: Real (BRL)
Selected facts Facts and Figures
      Brazil: & figures
               Competitive and dynamic industry which
                   ranks among the world’s top

                   Leader in clean and renewable energy, such
                   as hydropower, biofuels, and wind farms

                   Largest consumer market in Latin America
                   (195 mi inhabitants)
                   3rd largest market in the world for cell phones
                   and cosmetics
                   3th main aircraft manufacturer and exporter

                    5th largest market for personal computers

                   5th main automobile manufacturer

                   4th largest consumer of automobiles
Population
Brazil is an ethnical miscellaneous country, made through migration and
miscegenation




European         Indian          Asian           African         Mixed
  47,3%          0,3%            2,1%             7,6%           43,1%
                                                            Source: IBGE Census, 2010
Population
• Brazil counts 195 million inhabitants. Near 80% live in cities
• Most of local population spread along the Atlantic Ocean coast

                                  Some important metropolitan areas:
                                                        Manaus (2,1 million)

                                                        Fortaleza (3,6 million)

                                                        Recife (3,7 million)

                                                        Brasília (2,7 million)

                                                        Belo Horizonte (5,0 million)

     Population Density                                 Rio de Janeiro (12 million)

     22,4 Inhabitants/km   2                            São Paulo (20 million)

                                                        Porto Alegre (4,0 million)
                                                                       Source: IBGE Census, 2010
Population
     Age distribution                              Life expectance at birth

           10,8%   > 60 years
                                                        73,7 years
                                                            Man:   70 years
          65,1 %                     15-59 years            Women: 77,5 years


          24,1%         < 14 years




                                             Economically active population

                                                     101,1 million
                                                             53% women
                                                             47% men




                                                           Source: IBGE Census, 2010 and IBGE/PNAD, 2009
Climate
      Brazil: Facts and Figures
Due to the large size and varied topography, the climate of Brazil has a wide range of
weather conditions. Even within the dominant tropical zone.
From the all-year hot Amazon Rainforest in the North till the winter snowfall in the
Southern highlands and the humid tropical coast in Rio de Janeiro.




                                     Equatorial rainforest
                                        Tropical savanna
                                               Semi-arid
                                                Coastal
                                       Humid subtropical
                                                                          Source: IBGE Atlas, 2012
Religion
       Brazil: Facts and Figures
                              73.6%




2.0%
 7.4%
        1.6%
                    15.4%


Roman Catholic   Protestant    Spiritualist

None             Other
                                              Source: IBGE Census, 2010
Social class distribution Figures
       Brazil: Facts and
100
90                                                                      Class A/B
80
70
60                                                                      Class C

50
40
30                                                                      Class D

20
10
 0                                                                      Class E
        2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
                                     Middle class
                                       Poverty
      Poverty reduction and social inclusion reinforce domestic market growth
                                      expansion
                                      reduction
                                                                         Source: FGV, 2012
Job Creation

                  3,000

                  2,500
New jobs (1000)




                  2,000

                  1,500

                   1,000

                     500

                          0
                              1995 1996
                                          1997 1998
                                                      1999 2000
                                                                2001 2002
                                                                          2003 2004
                                                                                    2005 2006
                                                                                              2007 2008
                                                                                                        2009 2010
                                                                                                                  2011


            Net job creation                                    2.079.188
                in 2011
Total energy supply
                       Diesel fuel
                         19.1%
                                                           Electricity
                                                            18.1%
        Other
        13.6%

                                                                 Sugar cane
                                                                  bagasse
   Kerosene                                                        11.9%
     1.6%

    Fuel oil
     2.0%                                                        Gasoline
                                                                  9.1%
                             Ethanol
    Lixivium                           Wood      Natural gas
                              4.7%
     2.1%        LPG                   7.2%         7.2%
                3.4%



Total energy supply                           228.658.522,6 toe
   World: 12.267 x 106 toe
                                                                            Source: BEN, 2012
Energy consumption per sector

                90,000


                80,000


                70,000


                60,000
1000 toe/year




                50,000


                40,000


                30,000


                20,000


                10,000


                    0
                         Industry   Transportation   Energy generation   Houses   Agriculture   Commerce   Public Sector




                                                                                                                     Source: BEN, 2012
Electricity supply
 Brazil has the clearest energy matrix in the world due to the large scale use of
 biomass replacing fossil fuels (sugar cane bagasse and biodiesel) and
 hydropower plants to produce electricity.
                                                 15%


               Fossil         11%           Hydropower (81,7%) 467.000 GWh
           Non-renewable
                                            Biomass (6,5%)          37.411 GWh

                                            Wind (0,8%)              5.408 GWh
    80%

                              89%
                                             Total electricity supply (2011)


    20%                                            571.302 GWh
             Renewable
   World                      Brazil
                                                                         Source: BEN, 2012
Infrastructure investments
               180
                                                                                160.0
               160                                                      146.5
               140                                              131.3
                                                                                52.1          Private
                                                        120.8           44.9
               120
                                                 99.2           44.0
R$ (Billion)




               100                                      48.9
                                          84.6
                                   79.5
               80           67.2                 36.9
                     59.9                 35.8
               60                  37.5
                            33.4                                        101.6   107.9
                     26.8                                       87.3
               40                                       71.9
                                                 62.3                                         Public
               20                  42     48.8
                     33.1   33.8
                0
                     2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008    2009    2010    2011



                                                                                        Source: BACEN, 2012
Exchange rate (R$/US$)
3.5

  3

2.5

  2

 1.5

      1

 0.5

      0
          19941995
                  19961997
                             1998 1999
                                         2000 2001
                                                     2002 2003
                                                                 2004 2005
                                                                           2006 2007
                                                                                     2008 2009
                                                                                               2010 2011            *
                                                                                                              2012
 Actual exchange                                     1,95 ≤ R$/US$ ≥ 2,05
       rate                                                                                       * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
GDP evolution
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
 1500
 1000
  500
       0
           1995 1996
                       1997 1998
                                   1999 2000
                                               2001 2002
                                                         2003 2004
             GDP (Local currency - R$)                             2005 2006
                                                                             2007 2008
                                                                                       2009 2010
             GDP (US$)                                                                           2011 2012*



                             2012 GDP                                 R$ 4,33 Trillion
                                   (Predicted)                      US$ 2,32 Trillion
                                                                                              * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
Countries by nominal GDP
                      16

                      14

                      12
 GDP (US$ Trillion)




                      10

                       8

                       6

                       4

                       2

                       0




                                        8 Countries represent 60% of
                           US$ 70 Tri         the World GDP
 World GDP
                                                            Source: World Bank, 2012
GDP Annual grow
8




7




6




5




4




3                                                                                 10 years average:          4,0 %
2




1




0
                                                                                                                                            *
    1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009     2010     2011     2012



                                                                                                                    * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
GDP Composition
67.0%                                  5.5%



                                                    Industrial GDP:
                                                    R$ 972,2 Billion

                                      27.5%

        Agriculture   Industry   services           53.0%




                                   14.8%
                                                                              21.0%
                                                    11.2%
                                     Mining                 Manufacturing
                                     Construction           Eletricity and public services
Industrial sectors
                      Food and Beverage                                                                   17.3
     Refining, nuclear energy and biofuels                                             13.4
                      Chemical products                                         10.8
                            Automobiles                                   8.7
                        Basic metallurgy                                  8.5
                        Heavy machinery                          6.0
                     Cellulose and paper                   3.7
                                  Rubber                   3.7
                       Mechanic industry                   3.7
                   Non-metallic minerals                  3.5
                        Printing industry                3.1
                        Eletric apparatus          2.3
                    Electronic apparatus           2.2
                                                                       As percent of industrial GDP
                                 Textiles          2.2
         Other transportation equipments       2.0
                                  Leather     1.8
                                Furniture     1.7
                                 Clothes      1.7
                                   Wood      1.4
                         Other industries           2.4                                       Source: IBGE, 2012
Industrial facilities distribution




                         The industrial areas are
                         concentrated in the Southeast
                         Region, specially in
                               São Paulo

                               Rio de Janeiro

                                                Source: IBGE, 2012
Foreign Trade (US$ Billion)
300


250


200


150

                                                                                                              *

100


 50


  0
       1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

 -50

                                  Exports (US$)       Imports (US$)
                                                                                  * Predicted Source: SRF/Alice, 2012
Trade basket



               Imports



Exports




                 Source: SRF/Alice
Predicted trade balance 2012



                      Imports
                  US$ 241,8 billion




      Exports
   US$ 258,4 billion
Foreign Trade 2012 (predictions )

      Exports          Imports
       US$           US$
     258,4 Bi*     241,8 Bi*
                                 Brazil still a closed
                 GDP             economy based on
               Us$                domestic market
            2.340 Bi*




       Trade flow/GDP
            21,4 %                            * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
Trade flow/GDP
30.0




25.0




20.0




15.0




10.0




 5.0




 0.0
       1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010     2011     2012*

                                                                                                                   * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
Political strength
    Brazil is a peaceful and politically safe country:
  No border conflict with neighbourhood Countries

  Consolidated leadership in South America

  No ethnical conflicts

  No active terrorist groups

  Low-risk country

  Consolidated democracy

                                                    She can run for a second
  Stable political system
                                                          term in 2014
Future prospective
Why invest in Brazil
  Strong and fast growing domestic market
     o large labor pool
     o Stable economic growth with social and environmental sustainability
  Solid macroeconomic fundamentals
     o Declining net public debt
     o Open capital markets
     o Floating exchange rate
     o Free capital flow, Limited barriers to FDI
     o Well-built, solid, and well regulated bank system
  Opening up markets and reinforcing foreign trade
  Vast natural resources
  Cultural and natural wealth, vast and diverse population
  Clean energy matrix. Renewable, abundant and clean energy
  Democratic institutions and political stability
Brazilian O&G Industry
S. America O&G status
                                            Reserves             Production
                         Country
                                            (109 bbl)           (103 bbl/day)

                         Argentina               2,5                     651

                          Brazil               14,2                   2.137

                         Colombia                1,9                     801

                         Ecuador                 6,2                     495

                           Peru                  1,2                     157

                    Trinidad and Tobago          0,8                     146

                        Venezuela             211,2                   2.471

                      Other Countries            1,4                     131




                                         6% Regional reserves
                                        30% Regional production
                                        70% Regional investment


                                             Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2011
Brazilian oil potential
                                 31 sedimentary
                                     basins



                                   Origin - 60% Cenozoic
                                          - 25% Mesozoic
                                          - 15% Paleozoic



                                   6.430.000 km2


                      4.880.000 km2                       1.550.000 km2
                         on shore                            off shore
                           Sources: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011; IBGE Geographical Bulletin, 2012
Contracted areas for E&P
                          After 10 rounds (bids), last one took place in 2010



                    Fields under concession 765
                                                       301 off shore
                                                       464 on shore

                                       Exploratory phase                  345
                                       Development phase                    82
                                       Operational Fields                 321




                    Total contracted area              526.555 km2
                                                       232.661 km2 off shore
                                                       293.984 km2 on shore




                    Producing wells                    8955
                                                          824 off shore
                                                        8.131 on shore


                                                 Source: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011
Main producing areas
 In spite of E&P activities in throughout the Country, the main reserves and production are concentrated on three offshore basins


                                                                                                             Production
                                                                                     Basin
                                                                                                               (bbl/d)
                                                                                    Campos                     1.756.277
                                                  Spirit Santo
                                                     Basin
                                                                                  Spirit Santo                   68.079

                                                                                     Santos                      49.009
                                                Campos
                                                 Basin                            Reconceive                     43.545

                                                                                     Sergei                      41.324

                                                                                     Slimes                      35.697

             Santos Basin                                                            Other                       46.428


  Almost 90% of oil reserves and production are located in Rio de Janeiro, Espírito
   Santo and São Paulo states shore. The most important industrial area in Brazil.
  Campos and Espírito Santo Basins produce in the post-salt layer since 1976, major
   fields are expected to be close to the production peak, but still have new discoveries
   and fields to be bidden.
  Santos Basin produces small quantities in the post-salt layer since 1979, but recently
   major reserves were find (specially for gas)
                                                                                    Sources: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011; Roberto Giannini, 2012
Oil production evolution
                            2.50



                            2.00
 Oil Production (106 bpd)




                             1.50



                             1.00



                             0.50



                              0.00
                                      2001       2002   2003   2004   2005    2006    2007   2008   2009     2010           2011
                            Produção on shore
                            Produção off shore
                            Produção total


                                                   Average 2011 production:          2,1 Mbpd

                                                                                                           Source: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011
Oil production share
                                        2.9%                                                ONGC


                                              2.3%
                                                         Frade
                                                         Japão
                                              2.4%

                                      Other   4.2%                                                            Other


         88.3%




Petrobras lead Brazilian oil market. The company is, and will be for a long
time, the major player in Brazil. There’s no oil business (technology, service or
equipment supply) without their agreement.

                                                       Sources: ANP Monthly Statistical Bulletin, 2011/2012; Companies
The pre-salt province
                  In 2006 Petrobras finds oil on Campos Basin on the pre-salt layer. In 2008 the “pre-salt province” was mapped.



                                                                                Total pre-salt province area
                                                                                       (As defined in the regulation)

                                                                                           149.000km2
                                                               Spirit Santo
                                                                  Basin




                                                                                 Previously contracted area

                                                        Campos Basin
                                                                                            41.772 km2
                                                                                              Petrobras               35.739 km2
                                                                                              Other (IOC’s and local ) 6.033 km2




                                                                                          Available area
                                                                                         (will be bided until 2014)

   Santos Basin                                                                           107.228 km2

 Expected recoverable
                                                                              80 ~ 100 x109 bbl
       reserves                                                                                            Sources: Roberto Giannini, 2011
Oil on pre-salt layer
                FPSO      Well



                 Water    Seafloor



 Post-salt oil deposits   Sedimentary rocks layer



             Salt layer
                          Primitive seafloor


 Pre-salt oil deposits



                          Primitive Sedimentary
      Magmatic rocks      rocks layer
Pre-salt oil drilling challenge


                  Ocean deep:       2.200~3.300 m




                  Post-salt layer: 1.000~2.500 m

                                                            Well deep:
                  Salt layer :      1.500~2.400 m     3.000~6.400 m
                  Pre-salt layer:    500~1.500 m



                   By the way…

                          Linear distance to the coast:   150~330 km
Pre-salt production potential




                       Source: ANP - Boletim da Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural, Janeiro de 2012
Pre-salt production potential




                       Source: ANP - Boletim da Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural, Janeiro de 2012
Pre-salt well cost evolution
                          First Well drilled
                      Took 1 year to be completed
                         Cost US$ 240 million



                           Learning curve


                          Last well drilled
                      Took 60 days to be completed
                          Cost US$ 66 million
Petrobras Strategic Plan
Petrobras strategic plan




                           Source: Petrobras CFO conference @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
Petrobras strategic plan




                           Source: Petrobras CFO conference @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
Petrobras strategic plan


         Actual Refining Capacity:      2.1 Mbpd
                                        13 Refineries

         Planned revamps:               0,4 Mbpd

         New refineries:                1,5 Mbpd


   Projected capacity (2014):            4,0 Mbpd
                                     Considering only Petrobras units in Brazil




                                            Source: Petrobras CFO presentation @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
Petrobras strategic plan




                           Source: Petrobras CFO presentation @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
The million dollar question:



   How can we take advantage
  of this scenario and convert it
   into business opportunities?
Field operator’s main challenges




             Technology development
Services provider’s challenge

                                               Seismic and reservoir
                                                 characterization


  Production Management                                                                  Field development and
       and logistics                                                                           delimitation




                                         Services integration

                                                                                               Drilling and exploration
 Information systems and
       databases




                     Production optimization                           Well completation and
                          and oil flow                                      well services
Brazilian Shipping Industry
Industry summary

        47 operating yards
  11 facilities under construction




             386 Contracts
             6,9 million DWT order book
             59.000 employees
Operating Brazilian shipyards
Main operating yards
    Yard        Steel Process (t/y)   Area (m2)   Dry Dock   Slipway   Dock
    Eisa             52.000           150.000        0         2        3
 BrasFELS            50.000           410.000        1         3        2
   Mauá              36.000           334.000        1         1        4
  STX OSV            15.000           120.000        1         1        1
  Aliança            10.000            61.000        0         1        2
    UTC               N.a.            112.000        0         0        2
Wilson, Sons         10.000           22.000         1         1        1
  Navship            15.000           175.000        0         1        2
Rio Grande           30.000           100.000        1         1        1
   Quip                N.a.            70.000        0         0        1
Atlântico Sul        160.000           15.000        0         2        2
    Sum              378.000          1.569.000      5         13       21
   Other             184.000          1.257.000     13         8        21
Grand Total          562.000          2.826.000     18         21       42
Oil & Gas demand
Demand assured for the next 10 years (2011–2020)
due to the world’s largest E&P investment program:

                         • Production Platforms
                   50

                         • Drill Rigs
                   50

                         • Offshore supply vessels
                   500

                         • Oil tankers
                   130
Contracted platforms & FPSO

      Unit                Status                  Brazil        International
  P55 Semi-Sub         Construction          Hull + Top sides      None
  P56 Semi-Sub          Concluded            Hull + Top sides      None
   P57 FPSO             Concluded            Hull + Top sides       Hull
   P58 FPSO            Construction          Hull + Top sides       Hull
   P62 FPSO            Construction          Hull + Top sides       Hull
   P63 FPSO            Construction             Top sides           Hull
     FPSO              Construction             Top sides           Hull
     FPSO              Construction             Top sides           Hull
   FPSO Twins    8 units under contruction   Hull + Top sides      None
     FPSO            4 units under bid       Hull + Top sides      None
Offshore Drilling Platforms
                      Sete Brazil, a joint venture of Petrobras, some
                      local pension funds and Brazilian banks, was
                      announced as the winner of the bid to build in
                      local yards 21 drilling rigs.


- Seven drilling ships are in construction at Atlantico Sul Shipyard
- Two jack ups drilling rigs are finishing construction at Consorcio Rio
  Paraguaçu
- 12 drilling rigs build in international yards by Brazilian operators will
  start operations in 2012 and 2013.
Merchant Marine Fund (FMM)
Brazilian Merchant Marine Fund is a clearly defined and well-regulated
legal system for the financing of shipbuilding, in place for over 50 years.

               3,000

               2,500
(R$ Million)




               2,000

               1,500

                1,000
                  500
                       0
                           2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010
                                                                                                 2011
The FMM annual disbursements on loans for ship construction covers
up to 90% of total investment.
Local Content achievement
Brazilian industry associations developed the data base of equipments, products
and materials needed by shipyard, based on real case purchases for a Platform
Supply Vessel, a tanker and a FPSO platform. The data base is shared with the
supply chain to increase local production.




                                    Local
           Type                      (%)              Imported (%)

       • Tanker                     • 70,8                 • 29,2
       • OSV                        • 61,0                 • 39,0
       • FPSO                       • 64,2                 • 35,8
Local Content
Ships Work Groups

    A     • Structural steel, steel plates, sections of steel and steel shapes

    B     • Machinery, motors, compressors and pumps

    C     • Piping and valves

    D     • Electric systems, wiring, cables and control panels

    E     • Hull accessories

    F     • Finishing materials

    G     • Paint and corrosion protection
Local Content
Platform and Drill Rigs Workgroups count 11 equipments family and 111 sub-
groups, summing 534 critical items


Electric Package reached 100% of local content for some items:
             Electric cables
             Control Panels
             Auxiliary motors for energy generation


Actually on this group, the most critical items for suppliers are:
             Propulsion Motors above 650 HP
             Cargo and ballast pumps
             Navigation, communication and safety equipments
Conclusions
 Brazilian modern shipbuilding industry is active since the
  60’s, experienced downfalls from the middle of the 80’s until the
  end of the 90’s. Since 2003 became a government priority
 A consistent regulatory and legislation arrangement is in place
 Demand is clearly visible for at least the next 10 years, based on
  the offshore demand of high valued drill rigs, oil production
  platforms, OSV and tankers
 Labor relations are recognized as an example by the International
  Labor Organization
 Challenges are identified and the industry works closely with the
  government departments to develop sustainable solutions
 However, the local industry has a huge technology gap, when
  compared to the world leaders
Doing business in
Doing business in Brazil - Focus

   Find a local partner and focus on hiring local content

   Companies want to see technology… show them ready-to-
    use technology

   Keep your attention on Health, Safety and Environment

   In general, companies are well capitalized and have access
    to government funds to invest. But… You can be creative
    and show ways do fund globally…

   Many non-Petrobras companies teams and directors are ex-
    Petrobras employees. You will see Petrobras way to do
    business everywhere…
Doing business in Brazil - Tips
    Brazil is a democratic, low-risk and stable country, both in
     political and economic fields.

    Europeans         are     well      respected      for    their
     tradition, culture, respectability and low-profile approach to
     business.

    Brazilians are not used to do business with people and
     companies they don’t know. Be low-key and invest time to
     work with your local counterpart.

    Relationships and face-to-face contacts are very important

    Portuguese is the language spoken in Brazil (all other Latin
     American countries speaks Spanish)
Doing business in Brazil - Tips
    Brazil is not corrupt. Don’t make that assumption! If you try
     “shortcuts”, you’ll have problems…

    In other hand… We are very bureaucratic... Learn the
     System and be patient...

    Taxation laws and fiscal issues are complex and change
     frequently

    Labor laws and social costs are burdensome and favor the
     employee

    The business culture is sophisticated and westernized

    Laws and contracts are respected and enforced
Final message




      When you plan an overseas investment




              Take a look at Brazil
Dr. Roberto Giannini
     + 55 11 9266-4273
 roberto_giannini@uol.com.br


     Yvan Bernardin
     + 55 11 9938-2388
 bernardin@barnardin.com.br

2012 07-03 - cmr singapore

  • 1.
    Brazilian Shipping Industry: Opportunitiesfor O&G Supply Dr. Roberto Giannini Sao Paulo & Singapore – July 2nd, 2012
  • 2.
    Where are we? Paris Good Morning Singapore São Paulo Good Evening
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
    stereotyped images ofBrazil Brazil: Facts and Figures When you hearbeauties… OrBrazilian Team about Brazil our natural you probably imagine… Football Beach Beautiful woman Carnival Samba The Carnival Parade
  • 6.
    Another way tosee BrazilFigures Brazil: Facts and These images are correct But we are much more than that Agriculture Life science We are a Country of Innovation Military jets Knowledge Defense industry satellites Connectivity Sophisticated products Air crafts Huge industry Sustainability
  • 7.
    Fifth larger Countryin the world (about the size of continental US – except Alaska) 8.514 million km2 of continuous area (around 50% of the South America area) Population around 195 million inhabitants (About 50% of the South America population) Strongly diversified economy (Mineral, agriculture, Industry and Services) Sixth larger GDP in the World (near 65% of South America GDP)
  • 8.
    Brazil: Facts andofBrazil Federative Republic Figures National flag Coat of Arms Brazil is a Federation of 26 States Government: Presidential republic 4.400 km Capital City: Brasília 4.600 km literacy: 86,4% Unemployment rate: 4,7% Inflation rate: 4,5% Local currency: Real (BRL)
  • 9.
    Selected facts Factsand Figures Brazil: & figures Competitive and dynamic industry which ranks among the world’s top Leader in clean and renewable energy, such as hydropower, biofuels, and wind farms Largest consumer market in Latin America (195 mi inhabitants) 3rd largest market in the world for cell phones and cosmetics 3th main aircraft manufacturer and exporter 5th largest market for personal computers 5th main automobile manufacturer 4th largest consumer of automobiles
  • 10.
    Population Brazil is anethnical miscellaneous country, made through migration and miscegenation European Indian Asian African Mixed 47,3% 0,3% 2,1% 7,6% 43,1% Source: IBGE Census, 2010
  • 11.
    Population • Brazil counts195 million inhabitants. Near 80% live in cities • Most of local population spread along the Atlantic Ocean coast Some important metropolitan areas: Manaus (2,1 million) Fortaleza (3,6 million) Recife (3,7 million) Brasília (2,7 million) Belo Horizonte (5,0 million) Population Density Rio de Janeiro (12 million) 22,4 Inhabitants/km 2 São Paulo (20 million) Porto Alegre (4,0 million) Source: IBGE Census, 2010
  • 12.
    Population Age distribution Life expectance at birth 10,8% > 60 years 73,7 years Man: 70 years 65,1 % 15-59 years Women: 77,5 years 24,1% < 14 years Economically active population 101,1 million 53% women 47% men Source: IBGE Census, 2010 and IBGE/PNAD, 2009
  • 13.
    Climate Brazil: Facts and Figures Due to the large size and varied topography, the climate of Brazil has a wide range of weather conditions. Even within the dominant tropical zone. From the all-year hot Amazon Rainforest in the North till the winter snowfall in the Southern highlands and the humid tropical coast in Rio de Janeiro. Equatorial rainforest Tropical savanna Semi-arid Coastal Humid subtropical Source: IBGE Atlas, 2012
  • 14.
    Religion Brazil: Facts and Figures 73.6% 2.0% 7.4% 1.6% 15.4% Roman Catholic Protestant Spiritualist None Other Source: IBGE Census, 2010
  • 15.
    Social class distributionFigures Brazil: Facts and 100 90 Class A/B 80 70 60 Class C 50 40 30 Class D 20 10 0 Class E 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Middle class Poverty Poverty reduction and social inclusion reinforce domestic market growth expansion reduction Source: FGV, 2012
  • 16.
    Job Creation 3,000 2,500 New jobs (1000) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Net job creation 2.079.188 in 2011
  • 17.
    Total energy supply Diesel fuel 19.1% Electricity 18.1% Other 13.6% Sugar cane bagasse Kerosene 11.9% 1.6% Fuel oil 2.0% Gasoline 9.1% Ethanol Lixivium Wood Natural gas 4.7% 2.1% LPG 7.2% 7.2% 3.4% Total energy supply 228.658.522,6 toe World: 12.267 x 106 toe Source: BEN, 2012
  • 18.
    Energy consumption persector 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 1000 toe/year 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Industry Transportation Energy generation Houses Agriculture Commerce Public Sector Source: BEN, 2012
  • 19.
    Electricity supply Brazilhas the clearest energy matrix in the world due to the large scale use of biomass replacing fossil fuels (sugar cane bagasse and biodiesel) and hydropower plants to produce electricity. 15% Fossil 11% Hydropower (81,7%) 467.000 GWh Non-renewable Biomass (6,5%) 37.411 GWh Wind (0,8%) 5.408 GWh 80% 89% Total electricity supply (2011) 20% 571.302 GWh Renewable World Brazil Source: BEN, 2012
  • 20.
    Infrastructure investments 180 160.0 160 146.5 140 131.3 52.1 Private 120.8 44.9 120 99.2 44.0 R$ (Billion) 100 48.9 84.6 79.5 80 67.2 36.9 59.9 35.8 60 37.5 33.4 101.6 107.9 26.8 87.3 40 71.9 62.3 Public 20 42 48.8 33.1 33.8 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 21.
    Exchange rate (R$/US$) 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 19941995 19961997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 * 2012 Actual exchange 1,95 ≤ R$/US$ ≥ 2,05 rate * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 22.
    GDP evolution 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 GDP (Local currency - R$) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP (US$) 2011 2012* 2012 GDP R$ 4,33 Trillion (Predicted) US$ 2,32 Trillion * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 23.
    Countries by nominalGDP 16 14 12 GDP (US$ Trillion) 10 8 6 4 2 0 8 Countries represent 60% of US$ 70 Tri the World GDP World GDP Source: World Bank, 2012
  • 24.
    GDP Annual grow 8 7 6 5 4 3 10 years average: 4,0 % 2 1 0 * 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 25.
    GDP Composition 67.0% 5.5% Industrial GDP: R$ 972,2 Billion 27.5% Agriculture Industry services 53.0% 14.8% 21.0% 11.2% Mining Manufacturing Construction Eletricity and public services
  • 26.
    Industrial sectors Food and Beverage 17.3 Refining, nuclear energy and biofuels 13.4 Chemical products 10.8 Automobiles 8.7 Basic metallurgy 8.5 Heavy machinery 6.0 Cellulose and paper 3.7 Rubber 3.7 Mechanic industry 3.7 Non-metallic minerals 3.5 Printing industry 3.1 Eletric apparatus 2.3 Electronic apparatus 2.2 As percent of industrial GDP Textiles 2.2 Other transportation equipments 2.0 Leather 1.8 Furniture 1.7 Clothes 1.7 Wood 1.4 Other industries 2.4 Source: IBGE, 2012
  • 27.
    Industrial facilities distribution The industrial areas are concentrated in the Southeast Region, specially in São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Source: IBGE, 2012
  • 28.
    Foreign Trade (US$Billion) 300 250 200 150 * 100 50 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -50 Exports (US$) Imports (US$) * Predicted Source: SRF/Alice, 2012
  • 29.
    Trade basket Imports Exports Source: SRF/Alice
  • 30.
    Predicted trade balance2012 Imports US$ 241,8 billion Exports US$ 258,4 billion
  • 31.
    Foreign Trade 2012(predictions ) Exports Imports US$ US$ 258,4 Bi* 241,8 Bi* Brazil still a closed GDP economy based on Us$ domestic market 2.340 Bi* Trade flow/GDP 21,4 % * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 32.
    Trade flow/GDP 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* * Predicted Source: BACEN, 2012
  • 33.
    Political strength Brazil is a peaceful and politically safe country: No border conflict with neighbourhood Countries Consolidated leadership in South America No ethnical conflicts No active terrorist groups Low-risk country Consolidated democracy She can run for a second Stable political system term in 2014
  • 34.
  • 35.
    Why invest inBrazil  Strong and fast growing domestic market o large labor pool o Stable economic growth with social and environmental sustainability  Solid macroeconomic fundamentals o Declining net public debt o Open capital markets o Floating exchange rate o Free capital flow, Limited barriers to FDI o Well-built, solid, and well regulated bank system  Opening up markets and reinforcing foreign trade  Vast natural resources  Cultural and natural wealth, vast and diverse population  Clean energy matrix. Renewable, abundant and clean energy  Democratic institutions and political stability
  • 36.
  • 37.
    S. America O&Gstatus Reserves Production Country (109 bbl) (103 bbl/day) Argentina 2,5 651 Brazil 14,2 2.137 Colombia 1,9 801 Ecuador 6,2 495 Peru 1,2 157 Trinidad and Tobago 0,8 146 Venezuela 211,2 2.471 Other Countries 1,4 131 6% Regional reserves 30% Regional production 70% Regional investment Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2011
  • 38.
    Brazilian oil potential 31 sedimentary basins Origin - 60% Cenozoic - 25% Mesozoic - 15% Paleozoic 6.430.000 km2 4.880.000 km2 1.550.000 km2 on shore off shore Sources: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011; IBGE Geographical Bulletin, 2012
  • 39.
    Contracted areas forE&P After 10 rounds (bids), last one took place in 2010 Fields under concession 765 301 off shore 464 on shore Exploratory phase 345 Development phase 82 Operational Fields 321 Total contracted area 526.555 km2 232.661 km2 off shore 293.984 km2 on shore Producing wells 8955 824 off shore 8.131 on shore Source: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011
  • 40.
    Main producing areas In spite of E&P activities in throughout the Country, the main reserves and production are concentrated on three offshore basins Production Basin (bbl/d) Campos 1.756.277 Spirit Santo Basin Spirit Santo 68.079 Santos 49.009 Campos Basin Reconceive 43.545 Sergei 41.324 Slimes 35.697 Santos Basin Other 46.428  Almost 90% of oil reserves and production are located in Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo and São Paulo states shore. The most important industrial area in Brazil.  Campos and Espírito Santo Basins produce in the post-salt layer since 1976, major fields are expected to be close to the production peak, but still have new discoveries and fields to be bidden.  Santos Basin produces small quantities in the post-salt layer since 1979, but recently major reserves were find (specially for gas) Sources: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011; Roberto Giannini, 2012
  • 41.
    Oil production evolution 2.50 2.00 Oil Production (106 bpd) 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Produção on shore Produção off shore Produção total Average 2011 production: 2,1 Mbpd Source: ANP Statistical Yearbook, 2011
  • 42.
    Oil production share 2.9% ONGC 2.3% Frade Japão 2.4% Other 4.2% Other 88.3% Petrobras lead Brazilian oil market. The company is, and will be for a long time, the major player in Brazil. There’s no oil business (technology, service or equipment supply) without their agreement. Sources: ANP Monthly Statistical Bulletin, 2011/2012; Companies
  • 43.
    The pre-salt province In 2006 Petrobras finds oil on Campos Basin on the pre-salt layer. In 2008 the “pre-salt province” was mapped. Total pre-salt province area (As defined in the regulation) 149.000km2 Spirit Santo Basin Previously contracted area Campos Basin 41.772 km2 Petrobras 35.739 km2 Other (IOC’s and local ) 6.033 km2 Available area (will be bided until 2014) Santos Basin 107.228 km2 Expected recoverable 80 ~ 100 x109 bbl reserves Sources: Roberto Giannini, 2011
  • 44.
    Oil on pre-saltlayer FPSO Well Water Seafloor Post-salt oil deposits Sedimentary rocks layer Salt layer Primitive seafloor Pre-salt oil deposits Primitive Sedimentary Magmatic rocks rocks layer
  • 45.
    Pre-salt oil drillingchallenge Ocean deep: 2.200~3.300 m Post-salt layer: 1.000~2.500 m Well deep: Salt layer : 1.500~2.400 m 3.000~6.400 m Pre-salt layer: 500~1.500 m By the way… Linear distance to the coast: 150~330 km
  • 46.
    Pre-salt production potential Source: ANP - Boletim da Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural, Janeiro de 2012
  • 47.
    Pre-salt production potential Source: ANP - Boletim da Produção de Petróleo e Gás Natural, Janeiro de 2012
  • 48.
    Pre-salt well costevolution First Well drilled Took 1 year to be completed Cost US$ 240 million Learning curve Last well drilled Took 60 days to be completed Cost US$ 66 million
  • 49.
  • 50.
    Petrobras strategic plan Source: Petrobras CFO conference @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
  • 51.
    Petrobras strategic plan Source: Petrobras CFO conference @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
  • 52.
    Petrobras strategic plan Actual Refining Capacity: 2.1 Mbpd 13 Refineries Planned revamps: 0,4 Mbpd New refineries: 1,5 Mbpd Projected capacity (2014): 4,0 Mbpd Considering only Petrobras units in Brazil Source: Petrobras CFO presentation @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
  • 53.
    Petrobras strategic plan Source: Petrobras CFO presentation @ BTG CEO Conference 2011
  • 54.
    The million dollarquestion: How can we take advantage of this scenario and convert it into business opportunities?
  • 55.
    Field operator’s mainchallenges Technology development
  • 56.
    Services provider’s challenge Seismic and reservoir characterization Production Management Field development and and logistics delimitation Services integration Drilling and exploration Information systems and databases Production optimization Well completation and and oil flow well services
  • 57.
  • 58.
    Industry summary 47 operating yards 11 facilities under construction 386 Contracts 6,9 million DWT order book 59.000 employees
  • 59.
  • 60.
    Main operating yards Yard Steel Process (t/y) Area (m2) Dry Dock Slipway Dock Eisa 52.000 150.000 0 2 3 BrasFELS 50.000 410.000 1 3 2 Mauá 36.000 334.000 1 1 4 STX OSV 15.000 120.000 1 1 1 Aliança 10.000 61.000 0 1 2 UTC N.a. 112.000 0 0 2 Wilson, Sons 10.000 22.000 1 1 1 Navship 15.000 175.000 0 1 2 Rio Grande 30.000 100.000 1 1 1 Quip N.a. 70.000 0 0 1 Atlântico Sul 160.000 15.000 0 2 2 Sum 378.000 1.569.000 5 13 21 Other 184.000 1.257.000 13 8 21 Grand Total 562.000 2.826.000 18 21 42
  • 61.
    Oil & Gasdemand Demand assured for the next 10 years (2011–2020) due to the world’s largest E&P investment program: • Production Platforms 50 • Drill Rigs 50 • Offshore supply vessels 500 • Oil tankers 130
  • 62.
    Contracted platforms &FPSO Unit Status Brazil International P55 Semi-Sub Construction Hull + Top sides None P56 Semi-Sub Concluded Hull + Top sides None P57 FPSO Concluded Hull + Top sides Hull P58 FPSO Construction Hull + Top sides Hull P62 FPSO Construction Hull + Top sides Hull P63 FPSO Construction Top sides Hull FPSO Construction Top sides Hull FPSO Construction Top sides Hull FPSO Twins 8 units under contruction Hull + Top sides None FPSO 4 units under bid Hull + Top sides None
  • 63.
    Offshore Drilling Platforms Sete Brazil, a joint venture of Petrobras, some local pension funds and Brazilian banks, was announced as the winner of the bid to build in local yards 21 drilling rigs. - Seven drilling ships are in construction at Atlantico Sul Shipyard - Two jack ups drilling rigs are finishing construction at Consorcio Rio Paraguaçu - 12 drilling rigs build in international yards by Brazilian operators will start operations in 2012 and 2013.
  • 64.
    Merchant Marine Fund(FMM) Brazilian Merchant Marine Fund is a clearly defined and well-regulated legal system for the financing of shipbuilding, in place for over 50 years. 3,000 2,500 (R$ Million) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The FMM annual disbursements on loans for ship construction covers up to 90% of total investment.
  • 65.
    Local Content achievement Brazilianindustry associations developed the data base of equipments, products and materials needed by shipyard, based on real case purchases for a Platform Supply Vessel, a tanker and a FPSO platform. The data base is shared with the supply chain to increase local production. Local Type (%) Imported (%) • Tanker • 70,8 • 29,2 • OSV • 61,0 • 39,0 • FPSO • 64,2 • 35,8
  • 66.
    Local Content Ships WorkGroups A • Structural steel, steel plates, sections of steel and steel shapes B • Machinery, motors, compressors and pumps C • Piping and valves D • Electric systems, wiring, cables and control panels E • Hull accessories F • Finishing materials G • Paint and corrosion protection
  • 67.
    Local Content Platform andDrill Rigs Workgroups count 11 equipments family and 111 sub- groups, summing 534 critical items Electric Package reached 100% of local content for some items: Electric cables Control Panels Auxiliary motors for energy generation Actually on this group, the most critical items for suppliers are:  Propulsion Motors above 650 HP  Cargo and ballast pumps  Navigation, communication and safety equipments
  • 68.
    Conclusions  Brazilian modernshipbuilding industry is active since the 60’s, experienced downfalls from the middle of the 80’s until the end of the 90’s. Since 2003 became a government priority  A consistent regulatory and legislation arrangement is in place  Demand is clearly visible for at least the next 10 years, based on the offshore demand of high valued drill rigs, oil production platforms, OSV and tankers  Labor relations are recognized as an example by the International Labor Organization  Challenges are identified and the industry works closely with the government departments to develop sustainable solutions  However, the local industry has a huge technology gap, when compared to the world leaders
  • 69.
  • 70.
    Doing business inBrazil - Focus  Find a local partner and focus on hiring local content  Companies want to see technology… show them ready-to- use technology  Keep your attention on Health, Safety and Environment  In general, companies are well capitalized and have access to government funds to invest. But… You can be creative and show ways do fund globally…  Many non-Petrobras companies teams and directors are ex- Petrobras employees. You will see Petrobras way to do business everywhere…
  • 71.
    Doing business inBrazil - Tips  Brazil is a democratic, low-risk and stable country, both in political and economic fields.  Europeans are well respected for their tradition, culture, respectability and low-profile approach to business.  Brazilians are not used to do business with people and companies they don’t know. Be low-key and invest time to work with your local counterpart.  Relationships and face-to-face contacts are very important  Portuguese is the language spoken in Brazil (all other Latin American countries speaks Spanish)
  • 72.
    Doing business inBrazil - Tips  Brazil is not corrupt. Don’t make that assumption! If you try “shortcuts”, you’ll have problems…  In other hand… We are very bureaucratic... Learn the System and be patient...  Taxation laws and fiscal issues are complex and change frequently  Labor laws and social costs are burdensome and favor the employee  The business culture is sophisticated and westernized  Laws and contracts are respected and enforced
  • 73.
    Final message When you plan an overseas investment Take a look at Brazil
  • 74.
    Dr. Roberto Giannini  + 55 11 9266-4273  roberto_giannini@uol.com.br Yvan Bernardin  + 55 11 9938-2388  bernardin@barnardin.com.br