2008 05 white presentation at 39th konstanz seminar konstanz 7 may 2008 [mode de compatibilité]
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1) The search for efficiency in real economies, financial markets, and monetary policy led to greater productivity but also rising imbalances as efficiencies encouraged overreach. 2) While inflation was reduced during the "Great Moderation", credit growth and asset prices like housing rose rapidly, creating imbalances between sectors. 3) The current financial turmoil has deep roots in these imbalances and has serious implications for the financial system and broader economy.
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A financial crisis occurs when one or more financial markets or intermediaries cease functioning or function only erratically and inefficiently.
Crisis actual erturk 54
The document discusses lessons from the global financial crisis for heterodox economists. It argues that two key lessons are the crucial role that asset price bubbles play in fueling credit growth in a profit-led macroeconomic system, and the importance of understanding global imbalances from the perspective of capital flows rather than just trade balances. Looking at imbalances through the lens of capital accounts shows how excess savings in some countries recycled through the US financial system, fueling asset bubbles and credit expansion. This perspective helps explain the crisis in a way mainstream theories cannot.
Risk confronting the international banking systems
The document summarizes some of the key risks facing the international banking system. It discusses how sovereign debt crises are destabilizing markets and economic growth is sluggish in developed nations. Banks face challenges including high credit risks in Europe, regulatory changes, and demanding customers. The main risks identified include default risk if borrowers fail to repay, financial risk from capital structure and debt levels, and business risk from uncertainty in markets and income.
Recent development
This document provides a summary of recent developments in global financial markets following the sub-prime mortgage crisis. It discusses how turmoil originated from problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market but was exacerbated by a liquidity crisis in the European inter-bank market. While central banks provided liquidity to stabilize markets, the document argues the current financial system's overreliance on complex, opaque instruments like CDOs and lack of transparency regarding risk has increased uncertainty and amplified volatility. Long-term regulatory reforms are needed to improve transparency and prevent excessive risk-taking.
A maze-sixth edition
The document discusses the globalization of finance and its risks and challenges. It notes that while financial globalization has benefits like increased capital flows and more efficient allocation of resources, it also contributed to the global financial crisis. Countries with less integrated financial systems were less affected by the crisis. The document argues that truly global financial regulation would be difficult given that fiscal policy authority lies with independent governments, not global bodies, and coordinated regulation could impose the wrong models globally. Overall, the document provides an overview of financial globalization and examines its pros and cons based on the recent financial crisis experience.
The Advisory_March2016
- The document discusses the increased market volatility seen so far in 2016 due to concerns over China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and uncertainty around the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
- It argues that investors should focus on long-term goals and plans rather than trying to predict short-term market movements, which are driven by factors like high-frequency trading and central bank actions.
- While short-term volatility may remain high, fundamental factors like company earnings growth and credit quality will still determine long-term investment returns; investors should stick to strategies focused on identifying attractive long-term value.
Financial Crisis – The complexity hypothesis
Within financial systems, the biggest risk factors are illiquidity, insolvency from high leverage, concentration of market share in too-big-to-fail institutions, and policy shocks. These risk factors are exacerbated by feedback loops and herding behavior, where actions by some market participants influence others in ways that create imbalances. For example, in the 1990s, US policy aimed to expand homeownership led to risky subprime lending and securitization of those loans, inflating a housing bubble. When housing prices stopped rising, many homeowners owed more than their homes were worth.
Persistency_Comments_Summary
The document contains summaries of macroeconomic commentary from 11 letters to investors between 2005-2008. Key points include:
1) Unprecedented debt levels in Western economies could greatly exacerbate economic downturns. Slow growth or debt reduction could hurt asset returns while inflation may help commodities.
2) A potential deflationary scenario could emerge if a bear market in inflated assets like housing triggers deleveraging, rising risk premiums, and falling wealth/spending. However, the Fed chairman at the time was seen as able to prevent this.
3) Sustainable growth requires a shift away from consumption and debt towards domestic demand and productive capacity in Asia. The current model relies on unsustainable credit growth
Brent woyat q2 2014 pimg commentary jul2014
1. The portfolio manager discusses the market performance in Q2 2014, with the Canadian equity markets outperforming other global regions.
2. He explains that central bank monetary policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have been a key driver for the stock market rally over the past few years by keeping interest rates low.
3. The portfolio manager reiterates his advice to investors to stick to their customized plans and not be deterred by short-term market fluctuations, as the plans are designed to navigate periods of volatility.
201010 Investment Outlook 4 Q10
The document provides a quarterly investment outlook and discusses recent volatility in financial markets. It notes that sentiment has been swinging between irrational optimism and excessive pessimism. While most equity markets have rebounded in recent months, bond prices have also risen due to deflation fears. The document discusses the debate around whether the threats are inflation or deflation and argues that subdued growth does not necessarily mean deflation will take hold. It outlines some areas where investment opportunities still exist, such as global equity income funds and Japanese equities, and concludes by emphasizing the need for diversification given the current environment of low predictability.
2013 10-20 Possibles scenarios of crisis MiF-15' v12
This document summarizes the risks facing the modern global economic system. It outlines several macroeconomic risks such as uneven global growth and emerging market vulnerabilities. It also discusses risks from changes in monetary policy like the tapering of quantitative easing. Several negative internal factors are mentioned like the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the property bubble in China. However, some positive internal factors may help like improved risk management and regulation. The document examines the potential effects of these risks, like reversals of capital flows to emerging markets and rising emerging market risk premiums. Charts show trends in government and private debt levels that could exacerbate problems. The conclusion discusses the possibility of high yield bond defaults and liquidity crises without reforms and coordination between institutions.
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Trends in cross border and wholesale funding, and regulatory impact
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Summer 2023 Class Presentation on Financial Crises _ Causes and Consequences....
Summer 2023 Class Presentation on Financial Crises _ Causes and Consequences....
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2008 05 white presentation at 39th konstanz seminar konstanz 7 may 2008 [mode de compatibilité]
- 1. How the search for efficiency led to the current financial turmoil William R White Head, Monetary and Economic Department Bank for International Settlements, Basel Presentation* at the 39th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Policy Konstanz, 7 May 2008 * Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily the views of the BIS 1
- 2. Overview The search for efficiency The “Great Moderation” But financial imbalances have built up “Headwinds” in history Current financial turbulence Conclusion
- 3. The search for efficiency In the real economy In financial markets In the conduct of monetary policy
- 4. Efficiency in the real economy Deregulation in industrial economies Productivity and IT Transition economies and globalisation A disinflationary bias?
- 5. Efficiency in financial markets Deregulation and technology Risk decomposition and risk management New products and new players Cheaper and better services
- 6. Efficiency in financial markets
- 7. Efficiency in the conduct of monetary policy More focus on near-term price stability More reliance on market processes More attention to communication
- 8. The “Great Moderation” Lower and less volatile inflation Higher and less volatile growth More resilience to shocks
- 9. But financial imbalances have built up 1, 2, 3, …? Efficiencies on the real side keep inflation down More efficient central banks conclude all is well More efficient financial markets overreach and imbalances build up
- 10. But financial imbalances have built up Credit growth Asset prices Sectoral imbalances Headwinds in history
- 11. Credit growth Low real interest rates and the Wicksellian natural rate Rapid credit growth globally The particular case of China
- 12. Credit growth
- 13. Credit growth
- 14. Credit growth
- 15. Asset prices: bond rates and corporate spreads
- 16. Asset prices: sovereign spreads
- 18. Asset prices: real estate
- 19. Asset prices: implied volatility
- 20. Sectoral imbalances Over extended consumer and household balance sheets Large external imbalances
- 23. Headwinds in history Net private savings Credit cycles and financial stress “Boom-bust” cycles in historical perspective
- 26. Boom-bust cycles in historical perspective Why history still matters Historical examples And all without inflation
- 27. Current financial turbulence: subprime as “catalyst” Implications of the securitisation revolution for participants Implications for the financial system as a whole Implications for the broader economy
- 28. Implications for participants; households Easier and cheaper access to mortgage credit More options, especially variable rates Intertemporal smoothing BUT Choice requires more judgement More exposure to market swings
- 29. Implications for participants; originators and banks Greater risk diversification Normally more sources of liquidity BUT Less need for “due diligence” Difficulties in valuing complex products Failure to price liquidity adequately
- 30. Implications for participants; originators and banks
- 31. Implications for the financial system as a whole Risk transferred to those who can manage it OR To the most gullible and the most greedy? Everyone becomes suspect And the demand for liquidity soars
- 32. Implications for the financial system as a whole
- 33. Implications for the financial system as a whole
- 34. Implications for the broader economy Will current turmoil result in credit rationing? How vulnerable is the global economy? Is the global housing sector of particular concern? And what about the dollar?
- 35. Conclusion Current financial turbulence has deep roots The boy who cried wolf! How a “better” financial system can still be improved Implications for monetary and regulatory policy