The document discusses six forces that drive emerging technology: evolutionary technologies, rhymes of history, disruptive technologies, science fiction, increasing returns, and red queens. It analyzes how technologies like laserdiscs, DVDs, and streaming media fit within these categories. The document predicts that streaming media will replace many current visual media delivery methods and that in the future, entire walls may display multiple streaming contents without computers or wires. It concludes with a quote about change being the only constant.

1. Obsolete and Emerging Technologies Pamela Ferguson student # A00103878 [email_address] August 21, 2011

3. http://youtu.be/PWAHV377sGo Decision Makers

4. http://youtu.be/iIqOOSggTk8 End Users

5. Dr. David Thornburg ~ Dr. David Thornburg, Pamela Ferguson, Norma Thornburg Six prominent forces that drive emerging technology: Evolutionary Technologies Rhymes of History Disruptive Technologies Science Fiction Increasing Returns Red Queens

6. Evolutionary Technologies -- "progression of growth of a previous one" ~ Dr. David Thornburg ryerson.ca While the laserdisc was a round platter similar to audio records, it's digital content was not an evolution of either 45's or record albums. DVD's are both an evolution of and a reason for the obsolescence of laserdisc. However, streaming media might be considered an evolution of radio and television.

7. Rhymes of History -- "fresh emergence of the impact felt many years before from another technology" ~ Dr. David Thornburg fbh.ycdsb.ca bokertov.typepad.com Our desire to constantly improve the delivery of our entertainment is a Rhyme of History . Even though the delivery methods may vary from satellite to streaming, these new emergences continually lead us closer to Kevin Kelly’s (2007) one media platform .

8. Connect all nine dots with four straight lines . . .you may not lift your pen off of the paper. Disruptive Technologies -- "wild cards – seem to appear out of nowhere . . .brand new way of thinking about a technological task" ~ Dr. David Thornburg While laserdiscs were not an evolution of records, neither were they a wild card . The video tapes and DVD's that quickly replaced laserdiscs also were not disruptive technologies. Streaming media seemed both an evolution and rhyme of history, and therefore is not a disruptive technology.

9. Science Fiction -- "emerges from science-based science fiction" ~ Dr. David Thornburg kollewin.com Various laser devices have long been a mainstay of science fiction. Baum's Wizard of Oz may not be considered science fiction, but I clearly remember the Wizards talking head which foreshadows video streaming.

10. Increasing Returns -- " two competing . . .one becomes the chosen one the other falls off the screen" ~ Dr. David Thornburg Laserdiscs never grabbed the market enough to become chosen. VHS which was the result of increasing returns is one technology that replaced the laserdiscs. However, I believe that streaming video will eventually replace many of the current delivery methods of visual media .

11. Red Queens -- "two technologies suddenly move ahead of a bunch of competitors because of their competition" ~ Dr. David Thornburg well.com Laserdiscs never seemed to move ahead. Streaming video content is a system of delivering content. While there are not current competitors of the system, there are competitors within the industry such as Netflix, Amazon, and iTunes.

12. The future of emerging technology in education. . . I believe streaming media will last for quite some time, but the computer will no longer be needed to receive the content. I imagine entire walls without wires or televisions where multiple contents are displayed. jasonarend.com

13. In conclusion . . . "The only constant is change" ~ Heraclitus Iron Man -- Iron Range -- Chisholm , MN

14. References See WIKI Link -- References

15. Support Documentation Interview questions -- See WIKI Appendix Consent forms for Interviewees -- See WIKI Appendix Summary or transcript of your interviews -- See WIKI Link