1. The document discusses the transformation and transition of smallholder farmers as economies develop and GDP per capita increases. 2. It recognizes that most smallholder farmers today will not be full-time farmers in 20-50 years due to the relative decline of agriculture, but that the transition may be slow in sub-Saharan Africa from 2010-2020. 3. Smallholder farmers are categorized into different groups depending on their situation and policies need to be tailored to support different groups as their roles change, such as helping marginal farmers remain part-time or semi-subsistence farmers.

1. 1
Transformation,
transitions &
future of
smallholders
recognising
differences

2. Transition
Increasing GDP/cap
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
S
h
a
r
e
T
o
t
a
l
V
a
l
u
e
Share
Labour in
Agri.
Agri Share
GDP
VA Agri
Worker
Value
Agri GDP

3. Transformation & Transition
Relative decline of agriculture with economic growth

4. Most SF today
will not be full-time
SF in
20/30/50 years

5. Attention!
Not mass exit
Not end of small-scale
farming
Labour transition
may be slow:
SS Africa, 2010--
2020
5

6. Rural Choices
Jobs
Farm
RNFE
City
Transition
Brutal
Gentle

8. Benign Rural Transitions
(FT
Comm)
Farming
Part-time
Farming RNFE
Rural-
Urban
Links
Migration

9. SF
DIFFER
3 schema

10. OECD DAC Rural Worlds
RW1: LSCF
RW2: SF, may
hire
RW3: SF survival, food
first
RW4: Landless
RW5: Chronic Poor

11. Dorward et al: SOAS/Wye
Step Up: Potential FT
commercial SF
Step Out: diversified
RNFE
Hang In: Marginal
SF

12. Latin America [RIMISP]

13. Latin America: 12 Cs
3%
9%
20%
43%
25%
Commercial Farms
Class A family farms
Class B family farms
Class C family farms
Rural landless

14. Is it that different in (Eastern) Africa?
SF surveys, 1996/2001
14
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Kenya Ethiopia Rwanda Mozambique Zambia
Hectares
1st Quartile 2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

15. Policy implications
15

16. ARD Policy by Cat & Effect
Policy Context Household Assets
Rural Investment
Climate
Peace
Stable Macro-Economy
Low/No Urban Bias
Basic Institutions
Rural Public Goods Roads, Power Human Capital: Education,
Health, Water, Research & Ext.
Correct Rural
Market Failures
↓ TransacHons Costs
↓ Monopoly Power
Esp.: Finance, Inputs
Transfer Capital Grants & Subsidies
Social Protection Jobs
Income Support

17. Who needs what?
A: Step Up B: Step Up C: Step Out Chronic Poor:
Hang In
Rural Investment
Climate
Rural Public
Goods
Correct Market
Failures
Private Sector Approach ?? ??
Institutions, Collectives or State?
Transfer
Capital X X ?? ??
Social
Protection X ??

18. What happens to marginal
SF [C]?
• Part-time/Weekend/Hobby farms
• Entrust/Lend/Rent/Sell to
neighbours
Do not (all)
leave land
• Support Staple Crops
• From 3/6 to 6/9/12 months food supply
Agricultural
Policy?
18

19. Key References
• Timmer, C. Peter, 2009, A World without Agriculture.
The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspective,
Washington DC: AEI Press Publisher for the American
Enterprise Institute
• Wiggins, Steve, John Farrington, Giles Henley, Natasha
Grist & Anna Locke, 2013, Agricultural development
policy: a contemporary agenda, Background Paper for
GIZ, London: Overseas Development Institute: pp 18–22
• Wiggins, Steve, 2011, Island nation or global citizen?
Solving the food crisis by helping small scale farmers,
Policy Report, Melbourne: World Vision Australia