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2.1 What Are Cognitive Biases, and How Can They Affect
Research?
Your Road Map to Success: Section 2.1
Learning Outcome 2.1: Analyze four types of bias and their
effects on research.
Why is this important?
Mastering this outcome will help you recognize some of the
more common biases that can affect your
research. Biased research can lead to information that is
inaccurate and missing vital pieces of evidence.
If we fail to consider all evidence available to us, our decisions
and conclusions may be flawed.
How does this relate to your success in this course?
This section’s learning outcome will help you understand how
certain biases can interfere with your
research. This in turn will help you reduce such biases, leading
to research that is informed, is balanced,
and contributes to the scholarly conversation. Hector, for
instance, chose the legal drinking age as his
topic for a research essay in his criminal justice course. He has

long believed that the legal minimum age
for purchase and public possession of alcohol in the United
States is unfair. He often argues that if an
individual can enlist in the armed forces and vote at age 18,
then that person should also be able to
purchase alcohol. Moreover, he has traveled to several European
countries where the legal drinking age
ranges from 16 to 18, and he says, “They don’t seem to have a
problem.” He proceeds to gather sources
that support his stance while disregarding other sources and
evidence that identify problems with
lowering the drinking age. During a class discussion, several
classmates point out this gap in his research.
They raise questions and concerns that he can’t address because
his research is one sided.
A cognitive bias is a way of perceiving information that
prevents us from making rational and objective
judgments and decisions. Cognitive biases can affect everything
from the way a group behaves to how we
remember past events and feelings. We are all subject to them,
because as our minds try to process information
quickly, we rely on mental shortcuts. Known as heuristics, these
mental shortcuts do help us process information
quickly and efficiently but can also lead to errors in judgment
that can in turn result in irrational choices.
Research has shown that we all engage in cognitive bias from
time to time. Social scientists Daniel Kahneman
and Amos Tversky published several notable studies on
cognitive biases beginning in the 1970s. Much of what
we understand about these biases comes from their experiments,
which helped identify and classify various
errors in judgment and faulty logic. While there are many
identified cognitive biases, some of which are up for
debate, we will discuss four: the framing effect, confirmation

bias, anchoring bias, and publication bias.
Framing Effect
The framing effect reveals how variations in wording and
phrasing can affect how we consider a problem and
make a decision. Changing a single word can influence how
people respond to a problem or remember an event.
In a classic example, memory researchers Elizabeth Loftus and
John Palmer (1974) had students watch a video
of a car accident. Depending on the verb used to describe the
accident, students over- and underestimated the
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
Suwaree Tangbovornpichet/iStock/Getty Images Plus
speed and severity of the crash. When researchers used the
verbs “bumped” and “contacted,” students estimated
slower speeds. In contrast, when researchers used the verb
“crashed” to describe the accident, students estimated
the accident occurred at higher speeds and in some cases
remembered seeing broken glass when there was none.
You can see how the framing effect might change the way an
eyewitness recalls the details of a crime.
Framing an issue in a negative light by focusing on possible
risks can also affect decisions and judgments. For
instance, you might not want to risk a bet if you have a 1 in 3
chance of losing. On the other hand, if you had a

66% chance of winning, you might be much more willing to
take the bet, even though the odds are the same. The
importance of how a problem is framed was explored by
Kahneman and Tversky in 1981. Using a series of
questions, they were able to determine various ways decision
making is influenced by the way a problem is
presented. In the reframing scenario presented in Table 2.1, for
example, Kahneman and Tversky (1981)
presented study participants with the same decision-making
problem framed in two ways to determine whether
the choices participants made would vary as a result.
Table 2.1: Reframing scenario
Framing A Framing B
Scenario Imagine that you have decided to see a play and
paid the admission price of $10 per ticket. As
you enter the theater, you discover that you
have lost the ticket. Would you pay $10 for
another ticket?
Imagine that you have decided to see a play
where admission is $10 per ticket. As you enter
the theater, you discover that you have lost a
$10 bill. Would you still pay $10 for a ticket
for the play?
Results Yes: 46% No: 54%
Most participants were unwilling to pay an
additional $10 to see the play.
Yes: 88% No: 12%
Most participants were willing to pay an

Analysis Both scenarios involve the same cost, paying double
the usual price to see the play, but most
participants were only willing to do so when the $10 loss was
disconnected from the ticket price.
This example illustrates how our mental calculations can fail to
assess situations objectively.
Issues can also be framed in a manner that oversimplifies
complicated topics. One example is the Nixon
administration’s framing of America’s drug problem as the
“War on Drugs” in 1971. The use of the term “war”
increased funding of law enforcement, courts, and prisons to
“combat” criminal behavior and reduced funding of
prevention and treatment programs. Framing the issue as a
public health concern, on the other hand, would have
led to a different focus and approach. For more on the long-term
effects of the War on Drugs, visit
https://www.britannica.com/topic/war-on-drugs
(https://www.britannica.com/topic/war-on-drugs) .
In the same way, how you frame your research question can
influence how you think about your topic as well as what
information you seek out and accept. Let’s consider Sasha’s
research project for her Issues in Education course. The mother
of two boys ages 5 and 7, Sasha is concerned about the amount
of time her sons spend on screens. They love video games and
often sneak away with her smartphone to watch others playing
video games on YouTube. Also, when her sons’ schools shifted
to virtual classes during the COVID-19 pandemic, she felt that
their learning suffered. Perhaps not surprisingly, she develops
the
following research question: How can we prevent virtual school
and technology from hurting children’s education?

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It is important to frame your research
question in a way that doesn’t result in
biased research. Though you most likely
have opinions about certain topics, be
aware of any cognitive biases while you
conduct research.
Confirmation Bias in the News
Critical-Thinking Questions
1. How do you experience confirmation bias in your life,
either from other people or yourself?
2. What is the difference between data supporting a theory
and data being consistent with a theory?
In framing her research in this way, Sasha will seek information
on the dangers of virtual education and technology. Her Internet
search terms, for example, will reflect this focus, as will her
results. Her instructor points out that her question is phrased in
a
way that will lead to one-sided research and encourages her to
develop a question that approaches the topic from a neutral
standpoint. She encourages Sasha to consider the importance of
remaining open-minded and curious and using research as a
form of inquiry, as described in the ACRL
framework. Sasha realizes that her research should look at the

impacts of technology, including the benefits,
drawbacks, and anything in between. She becomes excited to
learn what technology has to offer students,
because it’s certainly not going away. As you can see,
reframing her research question will lead Sasha to less
biased research.
Confirmation Bias
Most of us are familiar with the saying
“You believe what you want to believe.”
We all have the freedom to choose what
to believe, of course, but when we hold
on to a belief even when substantial
evidence shows our belief is wrong, we
can do harm. Confirmation bias can lead
you to search for and overvalue
information that supports a belief while
ignoring and undervaluing information
that contradicts the belief. The tendency
toward confirmation bias can be greater
when the belief is attached to a strong
emotion or a desire to be right.
Raymond Nickerson (1998), a
psychologist and author, reveals the
difference between research that is
unbiased and research that is swayed by
confirmation bias. Free from the influence
of confirmation bias, “one seeks evidence
on all sides of a question, evaluates it as
objectively as one can, and draws the
conclusion that the evidence . . . seems to
dictate” (Nickerson, 1998, p. 175). In
contrast, under the influence of
confirmation bias, “one selectively

gathers, or gives undue weight to,
evidence that supports one’s position
while neglecting to gather, or discounting, evidence that would
tell against it” (Nickerson, 1998, p. 175).
Whereas framing a research question in a biased manner can
result in research that is only focused on a certain
view of the topic, confirmation bias can lead researchers to
question the validity of otherwise credible evidence
or ignore it entirely. In the criminal justice field, for instance,
confirmation bias can lead to the arrest and
Confirmation
Bias in the
News
From Title:
TEDTalks: Alex Edmans—What To Trust In A "Post...
(https://fod.infobase.com/PortalPlaylists.aspx?
wID=100753&xtid=209596)
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=209596
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Clean_fotos/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Think about your first car-shopping

experience. Did the price stickers on
conviction of innocent individuals. The National Registry of
Exonerations, a project funded in 2012 by the
University of California, Irvine, the University of Michigan
Law School, and Michigan State University College
of Law, lists 2,265 wrongful convictions that were eventually
overturned between 1989 and 2018. Although it
can’t be said that all wrongful convictions were the direct result
of confirmation bias, this error in judgment has
been shown to influence many criminal cases, affecting how
investigators, prosecutors, judges, and jurors
perceive evidence from the crime scene all the way to the
courtroom (National Registry of Exonerations, 2018).
In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011) points out
that part of the problem is “our excessive
confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent
inability to acknowledge the full extent of our
ignorance” (p. 14). It can be comforting to come across
information that confirms our beliefs. Likewise, it can
cause some discomfort to learn that we might be wrong.
However, it’s crucial for us to consider the broadest
possible range of evidence and our knowledge gaps before
rushing to a conclusion.
Let’s return to Hector’s research on lowering the legal drinking
age. Despite other class members pointing out
that his research is one sided, he’s sure that evidence will
support his claim that lowering the age makes sense.
While conducting background research, however, he comes
across several articles from the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration that estimate the number of
lives a minimum drinking age of 21 saves each year. The studies
are based on data gathered from the 1970s,

when several states lowered the drinking age, and the 1980s,
when they raised it once more. Initially, Hector
decides that this information is irrelevant. That was so long ago,
he thinks to himself, and young people are
different now. After learning about confirmation bias, however,
he realizes he hasn’t given the evidence fair
consideration. He must take a step back and focus less on being
right and more on learning everything he can
about the effects of lowering the legal drinking age.
Anchoring Bias
Anchoring bias is a bias that results from placing greater
emphasis on information we first encounter and
thereafter considering new information in relation to that mental
“anchor.” Researchers have noted the effects of
this bias, particularly when it comes to numerical values. One
well-known study by Tversky and Kahneman
(1974) showed how assigning participants an arbitrary number
would influence how well they answered an
unrelated question. First, participants were assigned a random
number from 1 to 100. They were then asked to
estimate the percentage of African countries that belong to the
United Nations. Depending on the number they
were assigned, their estimates were higher or lower even though
the assigned number had nothing to do with the
percentage of African countries that belong to the United
Nations. Instead of making a rational estimate, their
minds seemed to cling to an arbitrary anchor unrelated to the
topic in question (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).
This sort of bias is often at work when we make a purchase.
Visit
a used car lot, and you’ll likely see windshields advertising
unbeatable sale prices in big and colorful numbers. That initial
price acts as a mental anchor. Any price negotiated below that

anchor will lead you to believe you’re getting a better deal (or
at
least that’s what the salesperson is hoping for). But the
advertised sale price might be an overvaluation to compensate
for a negotiated lower price. This sort of price anchoring can be
seen in real estate, the stock market, and retail sales.
Mental anchors are not always numerical. Anchoring bias can
also lead to diagnostic errors in medicine. This can happen
when
a health care provider relies too much on the first symptom
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
windshields determine how you
researched prices of similar cars at other
lots? When situations like this occur, you
may have experienced anchoring bias.
reported by a patient. That symptom can act as an anchor, such
that all other symptoms reported afterward are only considered
in
relation to it. This first impression based on initial information
can also lead to confirmation bias. The result can be that
important information is ignored. Consider Dylan, who first
visited his primary care physician because of stomach pain. The
stomach pain often led to dizziness and
confusion. After these episodes, he usually felt exhausted. His
physician decided it must be a stomach issue and

prescribed antacids and dietary changes. The problem persisted.
Only after a particularly strong episode resulted
in a seizure did the physician suspect that Dylan might be
suffering from a form of epilepsy. Because stomach
pain acted as an anchor, other symptoms such as his dizziness
and confusion were disregarded as unrelated or
exaggerated.
When learning about a new topic, it’s important to avoid
placing too much emphasis on the first piece of
information you encounter. Instead, seek a variety of resources
that address your research question from different
perspectives, using different study designs or types of statistics.
This broad research will prevent you from
becoming anchored to a single—and potentially misleading—
voice.
Publication Bias
Publication bias can happen when studies published and shared
in a field or on a specific topic are very different
from studies not selected for publication. When embarking on a
new study, researchers begin by developing a
hypothesis. The hypothesis, or educated guess, will predict the
results of the study. A study with positive results
is one that supports the hypothesis. However, many studies
yield negative or inconclusive results. Publication
bias is the tendency for journals and other publications to favor
studies with positive and conclusive results.
Researchers may also be less likely to submit negative studies
for publication because they don’t expect their
research to be published. Publication bias can also occur when a
study is sponsored by an organization with a
conflict of interest. For example, if a pharmaceutical company
sponsors a study on the effectiveness of its new
drug and the study shows negative or mixed results, the

company may try to prevent publication of the study.
Publication bias does not invalidate published studies. However,
publishing only positive results can increase the
influence of those findings because unshared negative studies
remain unknown in the field. The sharing of
negative or inconclusive results is essential to present a
complete picture of the state of knowledge in the field
(Song et al., 2013).
Imagine that an herbal supplement is popularly believed to ease
anxiety symptoms. One study involving a small
group of participants shows significant improvement in feelings
of anxiety with few side effects. Two other
studies, however, show no change in the participants’
symptoms. A fourth study shows a small percentage of
participants with worsening symptoms, fewer with improved
symptoms, and the majority with no change. If only
the study with positive outcomes is published, the information
on the effectiveness of the supplement will be
skewed, misleading consumers about how much they can expect
this herb to help them. Again, this is not to say
that the positive study is invalid; rather, it doesn’t reveal the
full picture. For more on how publication bias can
impact medical trials specifically, see this TEDx Talk by Sile
Lane, scientist and activist:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RXrGLolgEc
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RXrGLolgEc) .
Looking back at the ACRL threshold concept of scholarship as
conversation, we can see how publication bias
limits the conversation when only some researchers are taking
part and others are left out. While publication bias
may not be something you can reduce or control as a student
researcher, it helps to be aware of how it can impact
the information available to you when learning about a topic.

You can also advocate for open access to all studies
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
regardless of the results. The following organizations are
dedicated to promoting greater transparency in research
and publication.
Center for Open Science (https://www.cos.io/
(https://www.cos.io/) )
All Trials (https://www.alltrials.net/ (https://www.alltrials.net/)
)
Section 2.1 Knowledge Check Quiz
1. __________ is the tendency to value evidence that supports a
belief while discrediting evidence
that contradicts the same belief.
A. Preferential treatment
B. Confirmation bias
C. The framing effect
2. Placing too much emphasis on the first piece of information
encountered is the result of
__________.
A. anchoring bias
B. primary source preference

C. confirmation bias
3. A research question reads, “Why are vaccines harmful?” This
question is likely to __________.
A. prompt the researcher to consider the broadest possible range
of evidence
B. result in biased research
C. advance the ACRL threshold concept of scholarship as
conversation
4. Studies with negative or inconclusive results are published
more often than studies with positive
results.
A. True
B. False
Answers
1 (B), 2 (A), 3 (B), 4 (B)
https://www.cos.io/
https://www.alltrials.net/
MINI-CASE ● ● ● ● ●
254 Part Two Risk
bre13901_ch09_228-256 254 10/15/18 07:12 PM
The two wells are intended to develop a previously discovered
oil field. Unfortunately
there is still a 20% chance of a dry hole in each case. A dry hole
means zero cash flows and a
complete loss of the $10 million investment.

Ignore taxes and make further assumptions as necessary.
a. What is the correct real discount rate for cash flows from
developed wells?
b. The oil company executive proposes to add 20 percentage
points to the real discount
rate to offset the risk of a dry hole. Calculate the NPV of each
well with this adjusted
discount rate.
c. What do you say the NPVs of the two wells are?
d. Is there any single fudge factor that could be added to the
discount rate for developed wells
that would yield the correct NPV for both wells? Explain.
● ● ● ● ●
FINANCE ON
THE WEB
You can download data for the following questions from
finance.yahoo.com.
1. Look at the companies listed in Table 8.2. Calculate monthly
rates of return for two succes-
sive five-year periods. Calculate betas for each subperiod using
the Excel SLOPE function.
How stable was each company’s beta? Suppose that you had
used these betas to estimate
expected rates of return from the CAPM. Would your estimates
have changed significantly
from period to period?

2. Identify a sample of food companies. For example, you could
try Campbell Soup (CPB),
General Mills (GIS), Kellogg (K), Mondelez International
(MDLZ), and Tyson Foods (TSN).
a. Estimate beta and R2 for each company, using five years of
monthly returns and Excel
functions SLOPE and RSQ.
b. Average the returns for each month to give the return on an
equally weighted portfolio of
the stocks. Then calculate the industry beta using these
portfolio returns. How does the
R2 of this portfolio compare with the average R2 of the
individual stocks?
c. Use the CAPM to calculate an average cost of equity
(requity) for the food industry. Use
current interest rates—take a look at the end of Section 9-2—
and a reasonable estimate
of the market risk premium.
The Jones Family Incorporated
The Scene: It is early evening in the summer of 2018, in an
ordinary family room in Manhat-
tan. Modern furniture, with old copies of The Wall Street
Journal and the Financial Times scat-
tered around. Autographed photos of Jerome Powell and George
Soros are prominently displayed.
A picture window reveals a distant view of lights on the Hudson
River. John Jones sits at a com-
puter terminal, glumly sipping a glass of chardonnay and
putting on a carry trade in Japanese yen
over the Internet. His wife Marsha enters.
Marsha: Hi, honey. Glad to be home. Lousy day on the trading

floor, though. Dullsville. No vol-
ume. But I did manage to hedge next year’s production from our
copper mine. I couldn’t get a
good quote on the right package of futures contracts, so I
arranged a commodity swap.
John doesn’t reply.
Final PDF to printer
Chapter 9 Risk and the Cost of Capital 255
bre13901_ch09_228-256 255 10/15/18 07:12 PM
Marsha: John, what’s wrong? Have you been selling yen again?
That’s been a losing trade for
weeks.
John: Well, yes. I shouldn’t have gone to Goldman Sachs’s
foreign exchange brunch. But I’ve
got to get out of the house somehow. I’m cooped up here all day
calculating covariances and
efficient risk-return trade-offs while you’re out trading
commodity futures. You get all the
glamour and excitement.
Marsha: Don’t worry, dear, it will be over soon. We only
recalculate our most efficient common
stock portfolio once a quarter. Then you can go back to
leveraged leases.
John: You trade, and I do all the worrying. Now there’s a rumor
that our leasing company is going
to get a hostile takeover bid. I knew the debt ratio was too low,

and you forgot to put on the
poison pill. And now you’ve made a negative-NPV investment!
Marsha: What investment?
John: That wildcat oil well. Another well in that old Sourdough
field. It’s going to cost $5 million!
Is there any oil down there?
Marsha: That Sourdough field has been good to us, John. Where
do you think we got the capital for
your yen trades? I bet we’ll find oil. Our geologists say there’s
only a 30% chance of a dry hole.
John: Even if we hit oil, I bet we’ll only get 75 barrels of crude
oil per day.
Marsha: That’s 75 barrels day in, day out. There are 365 days in
a year, dear.
John and Marsha’s teenage son Johnny bursts into the room.
Johnny: Hi, Dad! Hi, Mom! Guess what? I’ve made the junior
varsity derivatives team! That
means I can go on the field trip to the Chicago Board Options
Exchange. (Pauses.) What’s
wrong?
John: Your mother has made another negative-NPV investment.
A wildcat oil well, way up on the
North Slope of Alaska.
Johnny: That’s OK, Dad. Mom told me about it. I was going to
do an NPV calculation yesterday,
but I had to finish calculating the junk-bond default
probabilities for my corporate finance

homework. (Grabs a financial calculator from his backpack.)
Let’s see: 75 barrels a day times
365 days per year times $100 per barrel when delivered in Los
Angeles . . . that’s $2.7 million
per year.
John: That’s $2.7 million next year, assuming that we find any
oil at all. The production will
start declining by 5% every year. And we still have to pay $20
per barrel in pipeline and tanker
charges to ship the oil from the North Slope to Los Angeles.
We’ve got some serious operating
leverage here.
Marsha: On the other hand, our energy consultants project
increasing oil prices. If they increase
with inflation, price per barrel should increase by roughly 2.5%
per year. The wells ought to be
able to keep pumping for at least 15 years.
Johnny: I’ll calculate NPV after I finish with the default
probabilities. The interest rate is 6%.
Is it OK if I work with the beta of .8 and our usual figure of 7%
for the market risk premium?
Marsha: I guess so, Johnny. But I am concerned about the fixed
shipping costs.
John: (Takes a deep breath and stands up.) Anyway, how about
a nice family dinner? I’ve reserved
our usual table at the Four Seasons.
Everyone exits.
Announcer: Is the wildcat well really negative-NPV? Will John
and Marsha have to fight a hostile

takeover? Will Johnny’s derivatives team use Black–Scholes or
the binomial method? Find out
in the next episode of The Jones Family Incorporated.
256 Part Two Risk
bre13901_ch09_228-256 256 10/15/18 07:12 PM
You may not aspire to the Jones family’s way of life, but you
will learn about all their activities,
from futures contracts to binomial option pricing, later in this
book. Meanwhile, you may wish to
replicate Johnny’s NPV analysis.
QUESTIONS
1. Calculate the NPV of the wildcat oil well, taking account of
the probability of a dry hole, the
shipping costs, the decline in production, and the forecasted
increase in oil prices. How long
does production have to continue for the well to be a positive-
NPV investment? Ignore taxes
and other possible complications.
2. Now consider operating leverage. How should the shipping
costs be valued, assuming that
output is known and the costs are fixed? How would your
answer change if the shipping costs
were proportional to output? Assume that unexpected
fluctuations in output are zero-beta
and diversifiable. (Hint: The Jones’s oil company has an
excellent credit rating. Its long-term

borrowing rate is only 7%.)
Sheet1Annual
Production75*3652737526006.2524705.9423470.6422297.1121
182.2520123.1419116.9818161.1317253.0816390.4215570.9147
92.3614052.7413350.1Barrel
price102.5105.0625107.6891110.3813113.1408115.9693118.868
6121.8403124.8863128.0085131.2087134.4889137.8511141.297
4144.8298100*1.025Charges20.521.012521.5378122.0762622.6
281623.1938723.7737224.3680624.9772625.6016926.2417326.8
977827.5702228.2594828.9659620*1.025Net
Price8284.0586.1512588.3050390.5126692.7754795.0948697.4
722399.90904102.4068104.9669107.5911110.2809113.0379115.
863922447502185825.3212844720725762018171196519419136
07186337518144611766832172045316752911631314158849215
4679410.8960570.80291880.7194610.6446790.5776690.517625
0.4638210.415610.3724110.3337010.2990160.2679350.2400850
.215130.19276920114251755040.2153133513361451165834101
7232887571.7774438.1675725589594.3514442.2448869.239165
4.5341732.6298173.913739214Rate6%+0.8(7%)=11.60%Probab
ility of These Outflows.70%PV OF
PROBABLE13739214*70%9617450Initial Investment-
5000000NPV4617450
Week 3 - Discussion Forum 2
· Read How Confirmation Bias Works (Links to an external
site.).
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-confirmation-bias-
2795024
· Read Section 2.1 of the textbook.

· WatchWhy You Think You're Right - Even If You're Wrong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4RLfVxTGH4&feature=yo
utu.be
· Describe a situation in which you or someone you know has
demonstrated confirmation bias.
· Discuss two steps based on the assigned reading and video that
could minimize the effect of bias in the situation you described.
· Explain why it is it important for scholars to be aware of
confirmation bias during the research process. Include how this
awareness is important to you as you seek information for your
own research.
Your initial post should be a minimum of 150 words.
Review your classmates’ posts and respond to at least two of
your peers. Each peer response should be a minimum of 50
words.
In your peer responses,
· Provide an alternative step to minimize bias that your peer
could consider in relation to the situation shared.
· Address their thoughts about why it is important to be aware
of confirmation bias during the research process.

Post 1
Class,
Describe a situation in which you or someone you know has
demonstrated confirmation bias.
This situation may not be the most interesting. Still, I would say
that a case that I have demonstrated confirmation bias would be
arguing over which type of phone is better (Andriod or iPhone).
I have always been a fan of Android phones, which stems from
my experience of only owning an Android. When arguing this
topic, it's so easy to pick a side just because you haven't ever
experienced the other option!
Discuss two steps based on the assigned reading and video that
could minimize the effect of bias in the situation you described.
The first step that I could use to minimize the effect of bias
would be to utilize my new knowledge of the impact of bias and
try to steer my decisions from being so. I need to try and remain
open-minded and understand that I have never tried the other
phone brand, so I do not know if I would like it or not. The
second step I would utilize would be from the video about
having a scout mindset. I think incorporating this mindset's
characteristics will help me have the best response instead of
jumping to conclusions. Just like in the video, Julia Galef
mentions that it is not about making one side win and another
lose; it is about just looking at everything as honestly as
possible, even if we do not like it (TED, 2016).
Explain why it is important for scholars to be aware of
confirmation bias during the research process. Include how this
awareness is important to you as you seek information for your
own research.
Scholars must be aware of confirmation bias during their
research because it can cause them not to have factual and
accurate research. This kind of research would affect all of their
work and others who may interact with it. If I am researching

and many of my articles are biased, it would cause my
information to be invalid and opinionated. This is why the
awareness of the scholars and myself is vital while researching.
Post 2
Hello class,
Confirmation bias affects everyone of us in some way or
another, and it happens nearly everyday. I chose to write about
confirmation bias in regards to news sources and media outlets.
We live in the most technologically advanced time in history,
and almost every one of us consumes some form of media on a
daily basis. After reading and watching the discussion
materials, I realized that myself and most people I know tend to
have a favorite source, or... a bias, as to where we obtain our
news.
After having explored further into what a confirmation bias
fully entails, and realizing how many things in day to day life
they affect, I felt the first step in minimizing the impact of a
confirmation bias was to simply acknowledge one is present.
Acknowledging that a bias is present is important because it
allows us to transition back into an objective mind set when
evaluating or consuming media. Objectivity is very important
for a person to master. Our favorite media outlets are our
favorite for a reason, because they tend to align with ideas or
concepts that we either agree with or, value in some regard.
That does not necessarily mean that is wrong, but by identifying

the potential for emotion and bias to influence us, we can move
back into the grey area of objectivity to evaluate media. I feel
that the second thing that is important to minimize the impact of
a bias is to expand beyond our favorite resources. Taking in
perspective from other or even opposing sources is a good way
for people to find objectivity. Sources that challenge our held
beliefs allow us to evaluate and criticize our perspective. It is
not necessarily about changing our beliefs, but rather
considering things we may not have previously.
In a scholarly setting it is important for researchers to remain
objective because typically the purpose of research is to provide
facts, and unbiased commentary or evaluations. After now
realizing how confirmation biases can be difficult to detect, it is
important for me to remain objective because I value integrity
in my research. I like to try and remain as unbiased and
objective as possible, as I value facts and stats above most
things. It is also important for my research to be aware of how
biases may be affecting other writers, or their data evaluations.
Being able to identify biases from other writers will help to
allow me to pick out the hard facts and data from biased
sources.
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
2.1 What Are Cognitive Biases, and How Can They Affect
Research?
Your Road Map to Success: Section 2.1

Learning Outcome 2.1: Analyze four types of bias and their
effects on research.
Why is this important?
Mastering this outcome will help you recognize some of the
more common biases that can affect your
research. Biased research can lead to information that is
inaccurate and missing vital pieces of evidence.
If we fail to consider all evidence available to us, our decisions
and conclusions may be flawed.
How does this relate to your success in this course?
This section’s learning outcome will help you understand how
certain biases can interfere with your
research. This in turn will help you reduce such biases, leading
to research that is informed, is balanced,
and contributes to the scholarly conversation. Hector, for
instance, chose the legal drinking age as his
topic for a research essay in his criminal justice course. He has
long believed that the legal minimum age
for purchase and public possession of alcohol in the United
States is unfair. He often argues that if an
individual can enlist in the armed forces and vote at age 18,
then that person should also be able to
purchase alcohol. Moreover, he has traveled to several European
countries where the legal drinking age
ranges from 16 to 18, and he says, “They don’t seem to have a
problem.” He proceeds to gather sources
that support his stance while disregarding other sources and
evidence that identify problems with
lowering the drinking age. During a class discussion, several
classmates point out this gap in his research.
They raise questions and concerns that he can’t address because
his research is one sided.

A cognitive bias is a way of perceiving information that
prevents us from making rational and objective
judgments and decisions. Cognitive biases can affect everything
from the way a group behaves to how we
remember past events and feelings. We are all subject to them,
because as our minds try to process information
quickly, we rely on mental shortcuts. Known as heuristics, these
mental shortcuts do help us process information
quickly and efficiently but can also lead to errors in judgment
that can in turn result in irrational choices.
Research has shown that we all engage in cognitive bias from
time to time. Social scientists Daniel Kahneman
and Amos Tversky published several notable studies on
cognitive biases beginning in the 1970s. Much of what
we understand about these biases comes from their experiments,
which helped identify and classify various
errors in judgment and faulty logic. While there are many
identified cognitive biases, some of which are up for
debate, we will discuss four: the framing effect, confirmation
bias, anchoring bias, and publication bias.
Framing Effect
The framing effect reveals how variations in wording and
phrasing can affect how we consider a problem and
make a decision. Changing a single word can influence how
people respond to a problem or remember an event.
In a classic example, memory researchers Elizabeth Loftus and
John Palmer (1974) had students watch a video
of a car accident. Depending on the verb used to describe the
accident, students over- and underestimated the

11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
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speed and severity of the crash. When researchers used the
verbs “bumped” and “contacted,” students estimated
slower speeds. In contrast, when researchers used the verb
“crashed” to describe the accident, students estimated
the accident occurred at higher speeds and in some cases
remembered seeing broken glass when there was none.
You can see how the framing effect might change the way an
eyewitness recalls the details of a crime.
Framing an issue in a negative light by focusing on possible
risks can also affect decisions and judgments. For
instance, you might not want to risk a bet if you have a 1 in 3
chance of losing. On the other hand, if you had a
66% chance of winning, you might be much more willing to
take the bet, even though the odds are the same. The
importance of how a problem is framed was explored by
Kahneman and Tversky in 1981. Using a series of
questions, they were able to determine various ways decision
making is influenced by the way a problem is
presented. In the reframing scenario presented in Table 2.1, for
example, Kahneman and Tversky (1981)
presented study participants with the same decision-making
problem framed in two ways to determine whether
the choices participants made would vary as a result.
Table 2.1: Reframing scenario
Framing A Framing B

Scenario Imagine that you have decided to see a play and
paid the admission price of $10 per ticket. As
you enter the theater, you discover that you
have lost the ticket. Would you pay $10 for
another ticket?
Imagine that you have decided to see a play
where admission is $10 per ticket. As you enter
the theater, you discover that you have lost a
$10 bill. Would you still pay $10 for a ticket
for the play?
Results Yes: 46% No: 54%
Most participants were unwilling to pay an
Yes: 88% No: 12%
Most participants were willing to pay an
Analysis Both scenarios involve the same cost, paying double
the usual price to see the play, but most
participants were only willing to do so when the $10 loss was
disconnected from the ticket price.
This example illustrates how our mental calculations can fail to
assess situations objectively.
Issues can also be framed in a manner that oversimplifies
complicated topics. One example is the Nixon
administration’s framing of America’s drug problem as the
“War on Drugs” in 1971. The use of the term “war”
increased funding of law enforcement, courts, and prisons to
“combat” criminal behavior and reduced funding of
prevention and treatment programs. Framing the issue as a
public health concern, on the other hand, would have

led to a different focus and approach. For more on the long-term
effects of the War on Drugs, visit
(https://www.britannica.com/topic/war-on-drugs) .
In the same way, how you frame your research question can
influence how you think about your topic as well as what
information you seek out and accept. Let’s consider Sasha’s
research project for her Issues in Education course. The mother
of two boys ages 5 and 7, Sasha is concerned about the amount
of time her sons spend on screens. They love video games and
often sneak away with her smartphone to watch others playing
video games on YouTube. Also, when her sons’ schools shifted
to virtual classes during the COVID-19 pandemic, she felt that
their learning suffered. Perhaps not surprisingly, she develops
the
following research question: How can we prevent virtual school
and technology from hurting children’s education?
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
It is important to frame your research
question in a way that doesn’t result in
biased research. Though you most likely
have opinions about certain topics, be
aware of any cognitive biases while you
conduct research.
Confirmation Bias in the News

Critical-Thinking Questions
1. How do you experience confirmation bias in your life,
either from other people or yourself?
2. What is the difference between data supporting a theory
and data being consistent with a theory?
In framing her research in this way, Sasha will seek information
on the dangers of virtual education and technology. Her Internet
search terms, for example, will reflect this focus, as will her
results. Her instructor points out that her question is phrased in
a
way that will lead to one-sided research and encourages her to
develop a question that approaches the topic from a neutral
standpoint. She encourages Sasha to consider the importance of
remaining open-minded and curious and using research as a
form of inquiry, as described in the ACRL
framework. Sasha realizes that her research should look at the
impacts of technology, including the benefits,
drawbacks, and anything in between. She becomes excited to
learn what technology has to offer students,
because it’s certainly not going away. As you can see,
reframing her research question will lead Sasha to less
biased research.
Confirmation Bias
Most of us are familiar with the saying
“You believe what you want to believe.”
We all have the freedom to choose what
to believe, of course, but when we hold
on to a belief even when substantial
evidence shows our belief is wrong, we

can do harm. Confirmation bias can lead
you to search for and overvalue
information that supports a belief while
ignoring and undervaluing information
that contradicts the belief. The tendency
toward confirmation bias can be greater
when the belief is attached to a strong
emotion or a desire to be right.
Raymond Nickerson (1998), a
psychologist and author, reveals the
difference between research that is
unbiased and research that is swayed by
confirmation bias. Free from the influence
of confirmation bias, “one seeks evidence
on all sides of a question, evaluates it as
objectively as one can, and draws the
conclusion that the evidence . . . seems to
dictate” (Nickerson, 1998, p. 175). In
contrast, under the influence of
confirmation bias, “one selectively
gathers, or gives undue weight to,
evidence that supports one’s position
while neglecting to gather, or discounting, evidence that would
tell against it” (Nickerson, 1998, p. 175).
Whereas framing a research question in a biased manner can
result in research that is only focused on a certain
view of the topic, confirmation bias can lead researchers to
question the validity of otherwise credible evidence
or ignore it entirely. In the criminal justice field, for instance,
confirmation bias can lead to the arrest and
Confirmation
Bias in the
News

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11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
Clean_fotos/iStock/Getty Images Plus
Think about your first car-shopping
experience. Did the price stickers on
conviction of innocent individuals. The National Registry of
Exonerations, a project funded in 2012 by the
University of California, Irvine, the University of Michigan
Law School, and Michigan State University College
of Law, lists 2,265 wrongful convictions that were eventually
overturned between 1989 and 2018. Although it
can’t be said that all wrongful convictions were the direct result
of confirmation bias, this error in judgment has
been shown to influence many criminal cases, affecting how
investigators, prosecutors, judges, and jurors
perceive evidence from the crime scene all the way to the
courtroom (National Registry of Exonerations, 2018).

In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman (2011) points out
that part of the problem is “our excessive
confidence in what we believe we know, and our apparent
inability to acknowledge the full extent of our
ignorance” (p. 14). It can be comforting to come across
information that confirms our beliefs. Likewise, it can
cause some discomfort to learn that we might be wrong.
However, it’s crucial for us to consider the broadest
possible range of evidence and our knowledge gaps before
rushing to a conclusion.
Let’s return to Hector’s research on lowering the legal drinking
age. Despite other class members pointing out
that his research is one sided, he’s sure that evidence will
support his claim that lowering the age makes sense.
While conducting background research, however, he comes
across several articles from the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration that estimate the number of
lives a minimum drinking age of 21 saves each year. The studies
are based on data gathered from the 1970s,
when several states lowered the drinking age, and the 1980s,
when they raised it once more. Initially, Hector
decides that this information is irrelevant. That was so long ago,
he thinks to himself, and young people are
different now. After learning about confirmation bias, however,
he realizes he hasn’t given the evidence fair
consideration. He must take a step back and focus less on being
right and more on learning everything he can
about the effects of lowering the legal drinking age.
Anchoring Bias
Anchoring bias is a bias that results from placing greater
emphasis on information we first encounter and
thereafter considering new information in relation to that mental

“anchor.” Researchers have noted the effects of
this bias, particularly when it comes to numerical values. One
well-known study by Tversky and Kahneman
(1974) showed how assigning participants an arbitrary number
would influence how well they answered an
unrelated question. First, participants were assigned a random
number from 1 to 100. They were then asked to
estimate the percentage of African countries that belong to the
United Nations. Depending on the number they
were assigned, their estimates were higher or lower even though
the assigned number had nothing to do with the
percentage of African countries that belong to the United
Nations. Instead of making a rational estimate, their
minds seemed to cling to an arbitrary anchor unrelated to the
topic in question (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).
This sort of bias is often at work when we make a purchase.
Visit
a used car lot, and you’ll likely see windshields advertising
unbeatable sale prices in big and colorful numbers. That initial
price acts as a mental anchor. Any price negotiated below that
anchor will lead you to believe you’re getting a better deal (or
at
least that’s what the salesperson is hoping for). But the
advertised sale price might be an overvaluation to compensate
for a negotiated lower price. This sort of price anchoring can be
seen in real estate, the stock market, and retail sales.
Mental anchors are not always numerical. Anchoring bias can
also lead to diagnostic errors in medicine. This can happen
when
a health care provider relies too much on the first symptom
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print

windshields determine how you
researched prices of similar cars at other
lots? When situations like this occur, you
may have experienced anchoring bias.
reported by a patient. That symptom can act as an anchor, such
that all other symptoms reported afterward are only considered
in
relation to it. This first impression based on initial information
can also lead to confirmation bias. The result can be that
important information is ignored. Consider Dylan, who first
visited his primary care physician because of stomach pain. The
stomach pain often led to dizziness and
confusion. After these episodes, he usually felt exhausted. His
physician decided it must be a stomach issue and
prescribed antacids and dietary changes. The problem persisted.
Only after a particularly strong episode resulted
in a seizure did the physician suspect that Dylan might be
suffering from a form of epilepsy. Because stomach
pain acted as an anchor, other symptoms such as his dizziness
and confusion were disregarded as unrelated or
exaggerated.
When learning about a new topic, it’s important to avoi d
placing too much emphasis on the first piece of
information you encounter. Instead, seek a variety of resources
that address your research question from different
perspectives, using different study designs or types of statistics.
This broad research will prevent you from
becoming anchored to a single—and potentially misleading—

voice.
Publication Bias
Publication bias can happen when studies published and shared
in a field or on a specific topic are very different
from studies not selected for publication. When embarking on a
new study, researchers begin by developing a
hypothesis. The hypothesis, or educated guess, will predict the
results of the study. A study with positive results
is one that supports the hypothesis. However, many studies
yield negative or inconclusive results. Publication
bias is the tendency for journals and other publications to favor
studies with positive and conclusive results.
Researchers may also be less likely to submit negative studies
for publication because they don’t expect their
research to be published. Publication bias can also occur when a
study is sponsored by an organization with a
conflict of interest. For example, if a pharmaceutical company
sponsors a study on the effectiveness of its new
drug and the study shows negative or mixed results, the
company may try to prevent publication of the study.
Publication bias does not invalidate published studies. However,
publishing only positive results can increase the
influence of those findings because unshared negative studies
remain unknown in the field. The sharing of
negative or inconclusive results is essential to present a
complete picture of the state of knowledge in the field
(Song et al., 2013).
Imagine that an herbal supplement is popularly believed to ease
anxiety symptoms. One study involving a small
group of participants shows significant improvement in feelings
of anxiety with few side effects. Two other
studies, however, show no change in the participants’

symptoms. A fourth study shows a small percentage of
participants with worsening symptoms, fewer with improved
symptoms, and the majority with no change. If only
the study with positive outcomes is published, the information
on the effectiveness of the supplement will be
skewed, misleading consumers about how much they can expect
this herb to help them. Again, this is not to say
that the positive study is invalid; rather, it doesn’t reveal the
full picture. For more on how publication bias can
impact medical trials specifically, see this TEDx Talk by Sile
Lane, scientist and activist:
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RXrGLolgEc) .
Looking back at the ACRL threshold concept of scholarship as
conversation, we can see how publication bias
limits the conversation when only some researchers are taking
part and others are left out. While publication bias
may not be something you can reduce or control as a student
researcher, it helps to be aware of how it can impact
the information available to you when learning about a topic.
You can also advocate for open access to all studies
11/4/21, 8:44 AM Print
regardless of the results. The following organizations are
dedicated to promoting greater transparency in research
and publication.

Center for Open Science (https://www.cos.io/
(https://www.cos.io/) )
All Trials (https://www.alltrials.net/ (https://www.alltrials.net/)
)
Section 2.1 Knowledge Check Quiz
1. __________ is the tendency to value evidence that supports a
belief while discrediting evidence
that contradicts the same belief.
A. Preferential treatment
B. Confirmation bias
C. The framing effect
2. Placing too much emphasis on the first piece of information
encountered is the result of
__________.
A. anchoring bias
B. primary source preference
C. confirmation bias
3. A research question reads, “Why are vaccines harmful?” This
question is likely to __________.
A. prompt the researcher to consider the broadest possible range
of evidence
B. result in biased research
C. advance the ACRL threshold concept of scholarship as
conversation
4. Studies with negative or inconclusive results are published
more often than studies with positive
results.
A. True

B. False
Answers
1 (B), 2 (A), 3 (B), 4 (B)
https://www.cos.io/
https://www.alltrials.net/

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