1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Downmove
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Breakdown
The QE Index continued its decline for the second consecutive day
and fell around 88 points (-0.79%) to close at 11,049.69. The index
breached the supports of the 21-day moving average and 11,060.0 in
a single swoop for the first time since December. Traders may now
watch out for the test of key support near the 11,000.0 level. Any dip
below this level may trigger a sell-off, which may pull the index toward
10,867.57. Both the momentum indicators are moving down.
The QERI Index failed to move above the 21-day moving average
and penetrated below the important support of 3,199.21. We believe
bears may continue their domination over the bulls, until the index
trades below the 3,199.21 level and drag it further to test 3,150.0.
Meanwhile, with the RSI and the MACD lines pointing down, the
index’s preferred direction seems to be on the downside, thus
supporting our bearish outlook for the index.
IQCD moved below the supports of QR178.30 and the 21-day
moving average. Moreover, the yesterday’s decline came on the back
of large volumes. The stock is steadily moving down over the past few
days after failing to make any further progress above QR183.0. With
the RSI moving down further from the mid-line, and the MACD
growing more bearish, it appears IQCD is likely to continue its
downmove toward QR174.60, which if breached, may test QR173.0.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Breakdown
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Breakdown
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Breakdown
QEWS dipped below the supports of the 21-day moving average and
QR180.0 in a single trading session with increased volumes.
Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern
indicating a likely correction from the current level. The prognosis of
this time frame implies a further downside, with the RSI continuing to
move lower, and the MACD moving down further from the signal line.
We believe the stock may continue its decline and test QR177.20.
BRES penetrated below the supports of QR30.85 and the 55-day
moving average and caved in under selling pressure. It now seems
that BRES may drift further to test QR30.10. Any sustained weakness
below this level may indicate a continued weakness toward QR29.70.
Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bearish signals
indicating the weakness to persist. However, a close above the 55day moving average may provide some relief.
ORDS failed to move above the descending trendline and declined
below the supports of QR149.0 and the 21-day moving average
yesterday. We believe until the stock trades below this descending
trendline, the upmove seems to be in jeopardy. Although the stock is
trading close to its immediate support of QR145.90, it seems unlikely
that the stock may cling onto it targeting the QR142.70 level. Further,
both the RSI and the MACD lines look weak and indicate a downside.
Page 1 of 2

2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
11,049.69
DOWN
UP
11,000.00
10,867.57
11,100.00
11,170.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
3,184.46
DOWN
UP
3,150.00
3,136.00
3,199.21
3,240.37
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
34.95
UP
UP
34.15
33.50
35.50
36.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
71.00
DOWN
DOWN
70.90
70.20
71.80
72.80
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
64.50
UP
UP
63.30
62.21
64.80
66.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
75.40
UP
UP
75.00
74.00
76.00
77.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
67.10
DOWN
UP
67.00
66.50
68.00
69.40
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
78.40
UP
UP
78.00
76.80
80.00
81.50
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
30.50
DOWN
DOWN
29.95
29.15
31.00
31.45
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
49.00
DOWN
DOWN
48.40
47.50
50.30
51.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
148.80
UP
UP
145.90
142.70
150.00
151.50
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
175.30
DOWN
UP
174.60
173.00
178.30
180.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)*
179.10
DOWN
UP
177.20
175.00
180.00
182.50
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
79.50
UP
UP
78.00
77.00
80.00
81.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
46.75
DOWN
UP
46.00
44.20
47.70
49.00
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
30.55
DOWN
DOWN
30.10
29.70
30.85
31.20
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
22.49
DOWN
DOWN
22.38
22.00
22.84
23.10
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)*
146.20
DOWN
UP
145.90
144.00
149.00
150.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
11.22
DOWN
UP
11.19
11.00
11.44
11.60
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
20.74
DOWN
DOWN
20.74
20.50
21.07
21.32
Milaha (QNNS QD)
89.30
DOWN
FLAT
88.00
87.00
90.00
91.30
Banks and Financial Services
Banks and
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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