The document discusses 10 common "mind traps" that real estate agents should be aware of. These include cumulative error where mistaken beliefs build upon each other, survivorship bias where attention is paid to exceptional negative events, the woozle effect where unsupported claims are repeatedly cited, and the streetlight effect where information is only sought from easily available sources. Other traps include belief bias where logic is judged based on agreement with conclusions, pluralistic ignorance where group norms are followed despite private disagreement, and causal reductionism where complex causes are reduced to single explanations.
2. Mind Trap 10:
Cumulative Error
New mistaken beliefs get built on old mistaken beliefs.
One wrong idea can snowball into a delusional
worldview.
In our networked world, this is an especially
dangerous mind trap. Be alert to cumulative error!
3. Mind Trap 9:
Survivorship Bias
Things and facts that are interesting enough
(often in a negative way) survive the filters of
the human world and grab our attention.
We come to see news - which is usually an
exception to the world's rules - as the rule.
Look for stuff that everyone else is ignoring!
4. Mind Trap 8:
Woozle Effect
A claim appears in an article without supporting
evidence. This article gets cited by other articles.
And those other articles get cited by yet other
articles.
Cumulatively, this creates the false impression
of source reliability where none exists.
5. Mind Trap 7:
Streetlight Effect
We often pick up information from where it’s
most easily available.
In our time, most so-called 'research' relies on
sources that appear on Page 1 of Google
search results - whether or not they are true.
This can skew all information surrounding a
topic.
6. Mind Trap 6:
Belief Bias
Ideas or arguments that should get swept
aside for being silly or worse can seem
perfectly logical if we like their conclusions.
Because we instinctively judge an
argument’s strength by how strongly we
support the conclusion. Not, as it should be,
by how strongly it supports the conclusion.
7. Mind Trap 5:
Pluralistic Ignorance
A group can often go along sheep-like with a
norm, even though every group member secretly
dislikes that norm.
This happens because of information deficit:
each group member mistakenly believes that
the others understand and like that norm.
8. Mind Trap 4:
Simpson's Paradox
A trend can appear in groups of data but
magically disappear when these groups are
combined.
This counterintuitive effect can easily be
exploited by limiting a dataset so that it shows
exactly what one wants it to show.
So, beware of even the strongest correlations!
9. Mind Trap 3:
Causal Reductionism
Virtually nothing that occurs is traceable to just
one reason. Usually, anything that happens is the
result of many causes working together.
But the human mind cannot wrestle with such
complexity, so we tend to look for single causes,
reducing the knottiness of causality to a deceptive
simplicity that can be catastrophically incorrect.
10. Mind Trap 2:
Concept Creep
As an issue becomes rarer, groups to
whom that issue matters respond by
expanding their definition of that issue.
This creates the illusion that the issue is
getting worse, when it's actually
improving.
11. Mind Trap 1:
Emotive Conjugation
Synonyms are a double-sided sword. Without the
dictionary meaning changing much, they can
create positive or negative impressions. As the
great Bertrand Russell noted, someone who is
obstinate (neutral) can be described as headstrong
(positive) or pig-headed (negative). Much bias in
analyses and media reporting occurs this way!