The document summarizes a presentation given to the NATO Military Committee at HQ SACT regarding the Multiple Futures Project. The presentation introduced the intellectual framework for developing multiple possible futures, identified key drivers that could shape futures, and provided examples of possible futures landscapes and their implications. It outlined the project timeline, including developing narratives and implications in Phase 2 and deriving security and military implications in Phase 3, culminating in a final report and seminar in 2009.

1. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Session 1 – Introductory Drivers Brief

3. “ We need to be clear about the security environment we are going to be living in. And we need to be equally clear – and honest – about the limits to what can sensibly be achieved by our Alliance.” - NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer – 15 Mar 08

5. The Intellectual Framework, Explained Phase 1: May – Jul 08 NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Phase 2: Aug 08 – Feb 09 Phase 3: Jan – Feb 09 Writing & Reporting

8. Blank Slide – For 2 nd notes page on “Drivers Refined through events” slide

9. Environment Globalisation Governance Resources Technology Urbanisation Demographics Extremism Net/Comms

11. Session One – Introductory Drivers Brief NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Morphology Tables – An Introduction

12. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality

13. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality

14. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality

15. Morphology Tables – An Introduction NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 Driver Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option N Globalisation Accelerates Remains constant Slows Reverses Governance Nationalism increases Non State Actors, Corporations dominant Non-State Actors challenge (weak) nations World governance achieved Energy & Resources Global resource surplus High volatility to meet demand, prices high Supply equal to demand Demand exceeds supply Urbanisation City growth increases Cities grow at same rate as populations City growth slows City populations decline Demographics Old Europe Young neighbours: no migration Massive European immigration by young neighbours European population decline Young European population bulge Terrorism Attacks increase Attacks more unconventional Attacks decline CBRN attack Technology Rate of advance accelerates Rate of advance stable Rate of advance weak Advances stop Environment Global Warming Desertification and fresh water scarcity Ecosystems & Habitats in decline Environmental quality improves Networks & Communications Networks improve global connectivity Networks hampered by cyber -vulnerabilities Actors exploit superior network capabilities against NATO Networks increase human inequality

16. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 1 – Introductory Drivers Brief BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

17. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 2 – Moving from Drivers to Futures NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT

19. MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

20. Phase One Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

21. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

22. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

23. Reading the Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

28. MC Futures Landscape NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

29. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 2 – Futures-Building Brief NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT

30. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 3 – The Road to SACT Seminar NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT

34. Roadmap 2009 Supporting Military-Strategic Dialogue Developing Core Body of Work NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 SACT Visit to MC FCRT Intro for D&G March 2008 Final Report on Multiple Futures March 2009 SACT Seminar October 2008 MC-VISIT ~Today~ MC-Visit Report Presentation Feb 2009 Summary Conf Mar 2009 Event 1 27 May 2008 Event 2 2 June 2008 Event 4 24 July 2008 Event 3 2 July 2008 Event 5 Sep 2008 Event 6 Sep 2008 Event 7 Sep 2008 Event 9 Nov 2008 Event 8 Sep 2008 Core Team OS 1 1-2 May 2008 Core Team OS 2 29-30 Jul 2008 Core Team OS 3 Nov 2008 Core Team OS 4 Jan 2009 SMPC, COTC Nov/Dec 2008 COTC WG 10-11 June 2008 COMPLETED EVENTS Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

35. Discussion Period NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08

36. Supreme Allied Commander Transformation THE MULTIPLE FUTURES PROJECT NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 2008 Session 3 – The Road to SACT Seminar NATO Military Committee Visit to HQ SACT Norfolk, VA USA 17 July 08 BGEN José Demaría, ESP F Deputy Assistant Chief of Staff Strategic Concepts, Policy & Interoperability Sub-Division NATO HQ SACT