Second Bounce of the Ball - SANZ UNDESD

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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the SANZ UNDESD Future Dialogues. 17 November 2008

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  • 22 million Xbox 360s sold as at Sept 2009 – put on market in May 2005 Use as a phone 22 million members of Stardoll The Coming of Age in Second Life .
  • The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living
  • Bose I – Dr Robert Winston – Walking with Apes Same thing happened about 100,000 years ago - Homo sapiens In the South - have developed a mind capable of imagination - a creature capable of understanding and anticipating possibilities, with the gift of abstract thought. - Neanderthals In the North - have physical power but did not survive
  • November 12, 2008 - 11:52AM How fast is the new supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory? If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. That makes the $US100 million computer, nicknamed "Jaguar" by scientists, the fastest in the world for unclassified scientific research. At more than 1 quadrillion mathematical calculations per second, it is about 55,000 times faster than your typical PC. Only one other supercomputer is faster, and it's devoted to classified research on nuclear weapons at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Global climate change, space matter that can't be seen, and alternative energy - everything from improved gasoline combustion to fusion - are some of the subjects Jaguar will be used to research. In June, Jaguar, a Cray system, was rated fifth-fastest in the world by researchers who track the 500 top supercomputers. The Oak Ridge lab, a Department of Energy facility, announced Monday that it had upgraded Jaguar since then, and achieved its four-year goal of 1 quadrillion calculations per second - or 1 "petaflop" - six months ahead of schedule. Jaguar recently achieved sustained performance of more than 1.3 petaflops while churning out calculations on superconductivity and has hit a peak speed of 1.64 petaflops, the lab said. It is still undergoing final trials but should be ready for research by January. Thomas Zacharia, Oak Ridge's associate director for computing, anticipates a waiting list of proposals and near full-time operation when the computer begins work. All users must share their results with the broader scientific community.
  • Over 1 million industrial robots are working today
  • The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
  • Sustainable Future methodology, Version 2, Page 17
  • Second Bounce of the Ball - SANZ UNDESD

    1. 1. The Second Bounce of the Ball . sustainablefuture.info
    2. 3. An avatar is a computer user's representation of himself/herself or alter ego. Virtual reality (VR) is a technology which allows a user to interact with a computer-simulated environment, be it a real or imagined one.
    3. 4. Strategic Knowledge Data Information
    4. 5. Large Numbers a thousand 10 3 in a pinch a million 10 6 in a cup a billion 10 9 in a bathtub a trillion 10 12 in a classroom a quadrillion 10 15 in a 100 floor office block
    5. 6. 2008 10 billion years 0 4.45b 5.55b Habilis – the archetypal jack-of-all-trades, inquisitive scavengers prepared to try almost anything to survive. They were tough, active, gregarious and noisy, always on the move and always alert to the possibility of a … meal. B oisei – specialised in only one niche, lived within a strict social structure and were led by a dominant male whose strength and power held the group together. Two million years ago, evolution tells us… Strategic Knowledge
    6. 7. Information
    7. 8. The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory Computer can crunch a ‘quadrillion’ calculations per second If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. Data
    8. 9. Man & Machine? Man is expected to create a machine with the equivalent of a human brain by 2029… Data
    9. 10. Futures Studies <ul><li>P robable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction </li></ul><ul><li>P ossible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative) </li></ul><ul><li>P referred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary) </li></ul><ul><li>P resent trends: indicators, broad macro-changes </li></ul><ul><li>P anoramic views: systems thinking, integral futures, and ‘big picture’ attempts </li></ul><ul><li>Q uestioning: the necessary questioning and critiquing of all of the above, all of the time. </li></ul>
    10. 11. Project 2058 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
    11. 12. Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009) Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009) Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009) Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009) Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009) Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009) Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009) Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009) Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand measures up against international commitments (August 2007) A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for sustainable development (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development Strategy: Learning from international experience (October 2008) Part 2: Scenarios Part 1: Research Part 3: Strategy
    12. 13. <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Demographics </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Land, Food & Water </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Production </li></ul><ul><li>Values & Beliefs </li></ul><ul><li>Justice & Freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Ecosystems & Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Security & Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Governance & Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Economics </li></ul><ul><li>Information & Ideas </li></ul>Wild Cards Change Agents Response to Change Agents
    13. 14. Wild Card 2 <ul><li>Terrorism & War </li></ul><ul><li>Crime </li></ul><ul><li>War </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear War </li></ul>Wild Card 3 <ul><li>Health & Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Antibiotic R. </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemic </li></ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul>Wild Card 1 <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Info </li></ul><ul><li>Nano </li></ul><ul><li>Bio </li></ul><ul><li>Given the </li></ul><ul><li>increase in population </li></ul><ul><li>increase in consumption per capita </li></ul><ul><li>climate change & </li></ul><ul><li>the existence of wildcards </li></ul>What are the implications for New Zealand?
    14. 15. <ul><li>Crime is now global </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>
    15. 16. Our Methodology Fail Fail Fail     New Zealand does not manage its strengths and weaknesses and…     New Zealand does manage its strengths and weaknesses and.. … the World does not manage its opportunities and threats … the World does manage its opportunities and threats Scenario Matrix
    16. 17. Watch for Weak Signals <ul><li>Responses for Powerful counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Responses for Small counties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ignore </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt (monitor closely what is happening) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific Alliance?) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Try to shape (lead by example) </li></ul></ul>
    17. 18. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible
    18. 19. Sustainablefuture.info Thank You

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