The document outlines an introduction to a course on transportation and the environment, noting that transportation plays a large role in problems like air pollution, energy use, and climate change. It discusses major themes that will be covered like emerging technologies and policy solutions to address these challenges. The course will examine topics like vehicle efficiency, alternative fuels, mobility trends, and how to transform the transportation system.

1. Lecture 1:
Introduction
Prof. Dan Sperling
September 27, 2012
Fall Quarter 2012
Energy and Environmental Aspects of Transportation
Civil and Environmental Engineering (ECI) 163
Environmental Science and Policy (ESP) 163

2. Big Themes
1. Key overarching issues
• Are we running out of oil?
• Are oil companies evil and conspiring to keep oil prices high?
• Who really killed the electric car and is blocking the switch to alternative
fuels?
• Is climate change real and what should we do?
• Is air pollution a severe problem?
• Is technology the solution to energy, air pollution, and climate problems?
• Do benefits of cars outweigh costs?
1. Key policy design issues
• If can’t measure it, you can’t manage it (methodological and data issues)
• Role of causality—esp for AQ and climate change
• Who should be made responsible for solving a problem—keeping in mind
jurisdictional challenges (who’s in charge and can do something about it)
• Market based approaches vs regulatory and voluntary instruments
1. Systems challenges: how to coordinate responses to different parts
of a system (eg, switching to electric cars)? Before automakers sell
EVs, they need to be sure that electricity companies will build
recharging stations, while electricity companies want EVs to be
sold in large numbers before they invest in electricity charging, and
policymakers need to create incentives for both car and energy
companies to make their risky investments. All these policies and
investments must happen concurrently. A similar story is true for
other fuels and vehicles.

3. Outline
• Introduction
• Motivation for course on transportation and
environment
• Overview of course topics
I. Problems and Challenges
– Air quality
– Energy
– Climate change
II. Technologies, Strategies, and
Solutions
– Vehicles
– Fuels
– Mobility
– Freight

4. Introduction
• Who are we?
– Instructor:
Prof. Dan Sperling
Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering
Professor, Environmental Science and Policy
Director, Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis)
Board member, California Air Resources Board
– Teaching assistants:
Sydney Vergis , Kevin Fang, Brigitte Driller
Transportation gGraduate students, UC-Davis

5. Introduction
• Logistics
– Lecture:
• Tuesdays and Thursdays, 1:40 - 3:00pm
• Location: 179 Chemistry
– Smartsite:
• All course
materials,
readings, etc.
smartsite.ucdavis.edu

6. Introduction
• Logistics
– Email:
• Prof. Sperling: dsperling@ucdavis.edu
• Sydney Vergis savergis@ucdavis.edu
• Brigitte Driller bkdriller@ucdavis.edu
• Kevin Fang kfang@ucdavis.edu
– Office hours:
• Prof. Sperling: T 3:15-5:30, By appt. 2027 Academic Surge
• Sydney Vergis: Tues 9-11AM 2143 Wickson
• Brigitte Driller: Wed 10:30-12:30 2143 Wickson
• Kevin Fang Thur 12:10-1:30 2143 Wickson

7. Introduction
• Course details
– Grading components:
• 3 papers (13% each): 3 pages each, on assigned topics
• 4 quizzes (8% each)
• Final exam (29%): Dec 10
– Course readings
• See course schedule for readings for each class
• Readings are posted at course website
– Assignments
• Due midnight of posted due date
• To be uploaded at course website
• Late assignments assessed 5% penalty per day late.

8. Course Motivation
PROBLEMS
• Air Quality
– Local air quality
– Health impacts of pollution
• Energy
– Oil prices, costs of travel and goods transport
– Oil imports, security, geopolitics
• Climate Change
– Environmental, economic impacts
– Currently active policy area (e.g. California’s AB 32, low carbon fuel
standard)
SOLUTIONS: technology, behavior, and policy
• Vehicles
• Fuels
• Mobility
• Freight

9. This Course is Relatively Simple!
9
September 25, 2008

10. Vehicle Ownership is Soaring—Resulting in
Increased Fuel Use, Pollution, and GHG
Emissions
3.0
Number of Motor Vehicles (Billions)
2.5
2.0
Cycles & Scooters
1.5 Trucks & Buses
Cars
1.0
0.5
0.0
60
70
80
0
30
50
90
10
20
0
19
19
19
20
19
19
20
20
20
Source: Sperling and Gordon, 2009

11. The Problem?!

12. Transportation Plays Large Role in Climate
Change and Oil Security (and AQ)
Transportation accounts for ¼ of CO2
California 38% Transportation accounts
emissions in world
for 2/3 of oil used in US
and ½ in world
U.S. 28%
Worldwide 23% Transportation accounts
for ~1/2 of urban air
E.U. 21% pollution
0%
Direct share* transport15% emissions 25%
5% 10% CO2 20% 30% 35% 40%
EIA, 2006

13. Air Quality
• Our automobile emissions (e.g., CO, HC, NOx, Pb)
are far lower than in 1970.
• Yet local air quality problems still persist….

14. Petroleum Dependence
• Every U.S. President since the 1970s has sought
to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.
• Yet we are increasingly dependent on imports….
20,000
60%
Petroleum use in the U.S.
(thousand barrels/day)
imported
15,000
Domestic production
10,000
30%
imported
5,000
Imported petroleum
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1999 2004
Year

15. The Climate Change Challenge
Some scientists now
say 350 ppm is
necessary to avoid
catastrophic climate
750 ppm change
550
)l a bo g2
l (
450
350 ppm
o s no nolli B
To stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration, need to decarbonize the
energy system at several times the historical rate of 0.3%/y. Even if
t i
electric sector is completely decarbonized by 2100, stabilization at 550
(450) ppm => 3 (5) fold reduction in carbon emissions from direct fuel use
vs. IS92a.

16. Transforming Transportation
• Transforming vehicles
• Transforming fuels
• Transforming mobility

17. Vehicle Efficiency
• Efficiency of automobiles improves every year.
• Yet our fuel economy is just beginning to
improve….
40 45
Efficiency 42
35
Fuel economy (mpg)
Vehicle efficiency
39
(ton-mpg)
30
36
Fuel Economy
25
33
20
30
15 27
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Model year

18. Alternative Fuels
• Transportation is 96% fueled by petroleum.
• Yet there are many available alternative fuel
technologies with lower environmental impacts…
GM’s Volt (Plug-in Hybrid) Nissan Leaf (Battery Electric)
Volkswagen Jetta (Diesel) Honda FCX Clarity
(hydrogen fuel cell)

19. Growth in Travel, Mobility
• We have experienced exponential growth in travel.
• Can we continue to do so at the same rate?
Passenger travel by mode (per day per capita, France)
102 100,000
All modes
101 Buses + cars
10,000
Meter/day-cap
Rail
Km/day-cap
100 1,000
2-Wheelers
Horses
10-1 TGV 100
Air
Railways
Waterways
10-2 10
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Source: Grubler, IIASA, 2002

20. Transportation and Land Use
• SOV Cars dominate in US passenger transport system
(and increasingly elsewhere)
• Government policies support highways and suburban
development
Pisarski, 2007

21. Major Policy Trends
U.S. policy precedents for transportation and the environment:
• California vehicle emission standards
Air • Clean Air Acts (automobile emission regulations)
Quality • Fuel requirements (lead, sulfur, oxygenates)
• Diesel truck emission standards
• Calif. zero-emission vehicle mandate
Energy • Energy Policy Conservation Act (automobile fuel economy)
• Energy Tax Act (ethanol subsidy), biofuel mandates
• California vehicle
Climate CO2 standard
Change
• Low carbon
fuel standards
• California land
use/VMT
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

22. Externalities
• What are they?
– Impacts (costs or benefits) not directly involved in an
economic decision
• Why do we care?
– Sometimes the free market system does not fully account for
all economic costs and benefits to society
– This can result in socially sub-optimal results
• Transportation examples: air pollution, petroleum
dependence, congestion, climate change
Money
Consumer Firm
Goods
Consumption Production
External impacts on others not
involved in economic decision

23. Dealing with Externalities
• For example, if a factory is manufacturing
a product that pollutes a river…
– Direct economic approach – Downstream residents could get
together, pay polluter to stop polluting
– Command and control approach – Government could ban (or
restrict) river pollution, enforce with heavily armed river boat
patrols (or with environmental protection agencies)
– “Pigouvian” tax – Government could tax polluters in
accordance with the social costs they generate
– Marketable permits – Government could issue “pollution
permits,” allow the polluters to trade them to achieve
pollution reduction at lowest cost
– “Socialist” approach – If pollution is industrial, the industry
could be nationalized, run in a socially profitable way

24. Evolution of Transportation Monoculture
1859  First U.S. oil well discovered
First internal combustion engine car built 1885
by Karl Benz
1908  Model T (with ICE) debuts
U.S. transit ridership reaches highest  1926
peacetime levels
1930  Car ownership reaches 200 for every 1000
Americans
Suburban building boom begins following  1947
World War II
1956  U.S. Interstate Highway System launched
Arab oil embargo constricts supply  1973
1979  Iran-Iraq war doubles oil prices
First hybrid-electric cars sold in U.S.  2000
2003  Car ownership reaches 1.15 vehicles per
American driver
Motor vehicle population worldwide  2005
exceeds 1 billion
24
2008  Crude hits $140 a barrel
September 25, 2008

25. Conclusions
• Trends point toward more travel and more
energy-intensive modes of travel
• These transportation trends have consequences
– Air quality impacts
– Petroleum dependence
– Climate change impacts
• These externalities are problems, but solvable
problems that can be addressed with
technology and policy solutions
 These trends – and the strategies to reverse
them – are why courses like this are so
important!