فريق وزارة البنى التحتية والنقل ادارة نظم المعلومات الجغرافية - تحليل إدارة المخاطر- الدراسة تعتمد على معلومات التقصّي المقدمة من وزارة الصحة ولاية الخرطوم الإدارة العامة للطب الوقائي ،اداره الوبائيات.

1. RISK MANAGEMENT
ANALYSES FOR
Coronavirus PANDEMIC
2019 (COVID-19)
TRANSMITION
Arkweet Block 65 Ebaid Khatim St. P.O. Box 10179 Khartoum - Sudan
Tel: +249 183523454 | Fax: +249 183476267

2. INTRODUCTION
 The disaster we worried about most was a
nuclear war.
 Today the greatest risk of global catastrophe
doesn’t look like this...
Instead , it looks like this

3. INTRODUCTION
 If anything kills over 10 million
people, it’s most likely to highly
infectious virus rather than a war.
 Not missiles, but microbes…

4. INFLUENZA VIRUS FIGURES AND FACTS -USA
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
35,500,000
68%
16,500,000
31%
490,600
1%
34,200
0%524,800
1%
2012-2013
35,500,000
68%
16,500,000
31%
490,600
1%
34,200
0%524,800
1%
2018-2019
21,000,000
67%
10,000,000
32%
290,000
1%
37,000
0%
327,000
1%
2010-2011
29,000,000
67%
14,000,000
32%
500,000
1%
38,000
0%538,000
1%
2016-2017

6. INFLUENZA VS COVID-19
INFLUENZA COVID-19
Virus Type influenza A and B viruses. SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Symptoms occur faster and can have
greater variation.
severe illness or death.
Vaccines reduce the risk up to 40% -
60%.
not yet.
Ages at risk All ages. Basically elders.
Fatality rate 0.20% 3%

7. What Do We Know About Coronaviruses?
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses -
some cause illness in people, and others only
infect animals.
Some coronaviruses infect animals then
spread to people, and then spread person to
person such as:
• Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
• Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
• Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Common coronaviruses include some that
cause mild upper-respiratory illnesses, like the
common cold Coronaviruses have a crown-like
appearance under the microscope

8. What is COVID-19?
Coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 is a
respiratory illness that can spread from person
to person.
The virus that causes COVID-19 is a new
coronavirus first identified during an
investigation into an outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei
Province, China.
Initial case-patients reported visiting a large
seafood and live animal market in Wuhan.

9. Science of the COVID-19
 Made of 4 proteins and strand of RNA
(molecule which can store genetic
information).
 One protein is the spike, which gives the
crown-like appearance.
 Two proteins sit in the membrane between
the spikes to provide structural integrity.
 In the membrane, the forth protein is scaffold
around the genetic material

10. Virus Transmission in Natural Environmental
Conditions
 Respiratory viruses are
spread from person to person
via various modes of
transmission, including direct
and indirect contact, droplet
spray, and aerosol.

11. Virus Transmission
VIRUS TRANSMISSION
SOCIAL CONTACT
TYPE B
OUTDOORS CONTACT
Type C (BUSY AREA)

12. Modes of person-to-person transmission of
respiratory viruses
Contact
transmission
In both modes of contract transmission (direct and indirect), contaminated hands
play an important role in carrying virus to mucous membranes.
Direct
transmission
Virus is transferred by contact from an infected person to another person without a
contaminated intermediate object (fomite).
Indirect
transmission
Virus is transferred by contact with a contaminated intermediate object (fomite).
Droplet spray
transmission
Virus transmits through the air by droplet sprays (such as those produced by
coughing or sneezing); a key feature is deposition of droplets by impaction on
exposed mucous membranes.
Aerosol
transmission
Virus transmits through the air by aerosols in the inspirable size range or smaller;
aerosol particles are small enough to be inhaled into the oronasopharynx and
distally into the trachea and lung.
Adapted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); URL: http://www.cdc.gov/influenzatransmissionworkshop2010/

13. Virus Survival in Natural Environmental
Condition
 Virus transmission is affected by a number of
factors, including:
• Environmental determinants (UV, Temp, RH/AH, …etc.),
• Airflow and ventilation vs close air conditioning areas,
• Contaminated surfaces,
• Host behavior,
• Host defense mechanisms, and
• Virus infectivity.
 These parameters has varying influences on the
transmission rate of virus .

14. VIRUS SPREAD PARAMETERS (OUTDOOR SYSTEM)
Risk Parameters
Climate Virus Existence
Rain
Overall
Fitness
Temperature
Sunshine
Hours (UV)
Human Behavior Population
Humidity
Status
Wind
Direction
Hygiene Land Cover
Speed
SuspiciousConfirm Recovered Death
Land Use
Roads
Nomad
Routs
Building types
(Nomads, rural, urban)
Railway Airports
Social
contacts
Hot Spots
HospitalsBus Station Bakeries
Gas
stations
Sougues/
Markets
Age Gander
Cross
Boundary

15. Sensitivity Analysis:
Climate
Temperature
Rain
Humidity
Wind
Sunshine hours
Land use
Land cover
Population
Human Behavior
Hygiene
Hot spots
METHODOLOGY

16. LAND USE AND HOTSPOTS LAYERS
1. ATMs
2. Bakeries
3. Banks
4. Fuel stations
5. Administrative
(locality states)
6. Health center
7. Markets Khartoum
state
8. Population
9. Railways
10. Roads
11. Airports
12. Towns
13. Train Stations
14. Hospitals
15. Bus stations

17. POPULATION DENSITY

18. CAPTION KHARTOUM BUSY AREA
Legend
^_ Town
!( Isolation Centers
!@ Bakery
ATM
Banks
®q Airport
Sd_Bus_Stations
!¸ Petrol_Station_Khartoum
®v Health_Centers_Khartoum
Rivers
Railway
Road

19. WIND SPEED

20. HUMIDITY LAYER

21. HUMIDITY LAYER

22. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE

23. MAXNIM TEMPERATURE

24. Temperature

25. V. HIGH
M. HIGH
HIGH
Extreme R
MODERATE
LOW
VERY LOW
Lower RExtreme RHigher R
0 13 24 50
50
80
100
Temp =19c
RH =75%
19
75
Temp. C
RH %
V. HIGH/
EXTREME R

26. Construction of Basic Reproduction Number
(R0) Model

27. Cloudy and Clear Sky Turbid UV Index and Dose Forecast
Forecasts of UV Index and erythemal effective UV dose

30. THE MATTER
OF FACT -
AUSTRALIA

31. KHARTOUM RISK MAP

32. KHARTOUM RISK MAP

33. READINESS
Readiness
Tools/ PPEsInfrastructures DSS System
Non medical
interventions
Human Resources

34. Distribution of population above 55 years
• Health Center

35. EXPECTED NUMBERS OF CASES THAT REQUIRES INTENSIVE CARE

36. EXAMPLE FOR SUSPISION CASES WITH NEAR FACILITIES

37. EXAMPLE FOR SUSPISION CASES
WITH NEAR FACILITIES
‫المخابز‬ ATM
Banks

38. HEALTH CENTER AND HOSPITAL
Legend
!( Isolation Centers
®v Health_Centers_Khartoum

39. Adjacent Countries cases

40. Week One
Week Three Week Four Week Seven
ANOTHER
SEVEN WEEKS
HOME ISOLATION

41. GENERAL ACTIONS
 To detail strategic plans to mitigate impacts.
 Outdoors working hours from 9:00 am to 5:00 pm.
 Indoor with 30% manpower (Scheduling).
 All indoor premises to be naturally ventilated and exposed to sun light.
 Personnel with chronic diseases to committee home and self isolation.
 All above 55 years old to committee home and self isolation.
 To drain busy areas.

42. SPECIFIC ACTIONS
Decision Support System (DSS) task force by integration of vital
stakeholders.