Blue Sky Brief - Rationale - Guangzhou Commuter Vehicle

Blue Sky Brief ENG3094D 07/12/2014

Luke Johnson Automotive Design Technology UoB No. 12007353

Commuter Vehicle
Megacity China 2035
Rationale

By Luke Johnson


In an ever changing world, how can you think about what it will be like to live in the coming years
and decades? The way to approach the subject is to analyse the past development, look at the
future certainties and develop ideas based around these issues. Certain authors predict that there
are a set of four certainties for the coming decades. They are; Imbalanced population growth, key
resource constraints, universal data access and Asian wealth shift.
Authors particularly agree that significant issues are likely to affect China. Indeed in 2035, the
population of China will have peaked at 1.45 billion which will be an increase of 0.05 billion from
2014 where the population is around 1.4 billion. This value in itself will not fill you with dread as it
looks small compared to a population increase of half a billion from 1985‐2014 and they have
managed to cope with the rapid increase in population from then until now haven’t they?
Well actually no not really, by looking at population figures alone you don’t get information such as
population spread and wealth distribution or how the cities infrastructure is developing to cope with
the increased demand.
“In several Asian cities, urbanisation is happening at a rate much faster than transportation can cope
with” (Jones, 2010)
Below is a map of the population distribution of China in 2014.
(Population Density of China, 2014)
It would appear that China follows the pattern that you find all over the world, that the wealthiest
parts of the country are also have the densest population.


A particularly densely populated area currently is Guangzhou and the surrounding area (that you can
see above) which is to the south of the country and has Hong Kong situated close by. The reason for
this is that it is a mixture of an economic, transport hub mixed with a strong cultural identity.
Guangzhou is currently one of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta which has a combined population
of approximately 57 million people.
Below is a graphic to show the ever growing population of the Pearl River Delta and growth
predictions to the year 2020.

(Pearl River Delta Population, 2014)
Chinas National Development and Reform Commission say that the area will be a "centre of
advanced manufacturing and modern service industries," and as a "centre for international shipping,
logistics, trade, conferences and exhibitions and tourism." by 2020. (China‐trade‐research.hktdc.com,
2014)
Therefore the whole region is likely to look more like a single Mega City rather than 9 individual
cities in close proximity to one another.
As cities grow and become busier the strain on the public transport systems and the roadways grows
also. Some cities are creating road systems for a future scenario such as Naypyidaw in Burma where
11 lane highways have been built to cope with the possible overcrowding in coming decades.



(11 lane highway, Burma, 2014)
This is a good option for cities that have the room to develop these systems but the majority of cities
that have been developing for decades and centuries don’t have this luxury. London for instance is a
city that has developed over many centuries, and the roads in the centre are heavily congested.

(Central London Traffic, 2014)
This is due to the roads not being able to be widened and the traffic increasing year on year. In 2003
the congestion charge was introduced as a measure to reduce the amount of traffic jams inside inner
London. The introduction of the charge did work to free up traffic flow in the city but it also resulted
in a greater number of people commuting to work by bus along with London Underground and
Overground services as you can see below.



(Growth in London Overground demand, 2014)
This shows that the need for people to get into and out of the city is still present even with the
congestion reducing measures in place. The people who need to get into and out of the inner city
the most are tourists, shoppers and especially the people commuting to and from work.
Oxford English dictionary online says that commuting is to: “Travel some distance between one’s
home and place of work on a regular basis” (Oxford Dictionaries, 2014)
The first use of the word ‘commuter’ was in the 1840s America where people could travel from
outside of town to their place of work by train. The word derives from the term for someone who is
a "holder of a commutation ticket," (Online Etymology Dictionary, 2014)
The story of commuting might be said to have started in Europe with the advent of the industrial
revolution and the separation of the home and the workplace by some distance. Before the
industrial revolution in the 18th
century not many people actually commuted. This was due to
primitive transportation links and the villages and towns in which they lived already provided them
with trades. Walking was the most common way of transporting oneself from the house to the place
of work. For longer distances livestock or horse and carriages were used to travel across the land.
“Because the efficiency of the land transport system of this era was poor, the overwhelming
majority of trade was local in scope. Economies based on autonomy and basic subsistence could not
generate much trade. Cities were located to take advantage of the defensible or commercial
advantage of a location. From the perspective of regional economic organization, the provision of
cities in perishable agricultural commodities was limited to a radius of about 50 kilometers, at most.
The size of cities also remained unchanged in time. Since people can walk about 5 km per hour and
that they are not willing to spend more than one hour per day walking, the daily space of interaction
would be constrained by a 2.5 km radius, or about 20 square kilometers. Thus, most rural areas
centered around a village and cities rarely exceeded a 5 km diameter. The largest cities prior to the
industrial revolution, such as Rome, Beijing, Constantinople, or Venice never surpassed an area of 20


square kilometers. Large cities above 100,000 were very rare and those who exceed such a
population did so because they were at the nexus of maritime and land trade networks” (Rodrigue,
2014)
During the Industrial Revolution mill towns were created, which were mainly terraced houses built
specifically for the workers of the nearby mills. This meant the workers still were within walking
distance of their workplace.
“The worsted trade began in Bradford in the mid‐18th century but did not develop rapidly until the
advent of steam power. The result was an urban population explosion: between 1780 and 1850 it
rose from 8,500 to about 104,000. The living conditions of the workforce were abysmal, and life
expectancy for both men and women was little over 20 years…
...Salt's new village eventually had over 800 dwellings in wide streets with a large dining hall and
kitchens, baths and washhouses, almshouse for retired workers, hospital and dispensary,
educational institute and church, ample recreational land and allotments, in order to improve the
diet of the workers. He had a genuine philanthropic concern for his workers and succeeded in
providing them with a healthy and secure environment (not unconscious, of course, of the economic
benefits that this bestowed).”
(UNESCO, 2001)
However, the development of the railways meant that it was then possible to get between growing
towns and cities with relative ease if you could afford the journey. This was made possible by George
Stephenson when he not only developed the locomotive possible of transporting passengers but
when he also developed the Liverpool to Manchester train line. The link between the two cities
which were northern industrial power houses of the time meant that there was a possibility of
greater freedom of movement.
The cities grew, as did the population. Suburbs were developed on the outskirts of towns and cities
where people could escape the overcrowding and increasing pollution. The development of the car
was the next massive change in the way people travelled. It gave individuals the option to travel
where they wanted, when they wanted.
Whilst there was certainly an evolution in methods of transport from home to work in the UK, China
would also appear to have found its solutions.
A particularly fascinating vehicle is the rickshaw. Although the rickshaw might not necessarily be an
example of a traditional commuter vehicle, it is particularly fascinating as a piece of design as it is
light, easily manoeuvrable and very few mechanical elements. The rickshaw is the iconic eastern
mode of transport but it could be argued that its origins are found in the earlier mode of transport
called a litter. This was known as a sedan chair in the west and used by aristocrats. However in China
the litter was known as a Jiao and it was used up to the 19th
century.



(Sedan Chair Illustration, 2013)
This was the way to travel if you were rich and important. It was a human powered form of transport
believed to have been invented in Japan in the 1860’s and being the rickshaw runner was seen as
the most degrading of jobs to pursue.
“ …this is probably the most famous type of transportation in China from the early 1900's . A cart on
wheels pulled by a man. At the turn of the century, this was a very popular mode of travel for
wealthy merchants….”
(Chinese‐traditions‐and‐culture.com, 2014)

(Chinese Rickshaw, 2014)
The runners were eventually replaced by other means of drive, bicycle and motor driven along with
the rise in popularity of trains and cars.
“…The only time you will see it in China today is as a tourist attraction in the bigger cities. There is
usually one for hire at the Star Ferry in Hong Kong.”
(Chinese‐traditions‐and‐culture.com, 2014)


Nowadays there is an ever growing demand for cars in urban China. In the second quarter of 2014
China bought 9.7 million cars, that’s more than the USA, Japan, Germany combined.

(Oica.net, 2014)

Is it likely that commuting will be undertaken in 2035 and in China and mega cities like Guangzhou?
There is no certainty of this but it maybe it may not be commuting as we currently recognise it to be.
If commuting is likely to continue to be required as far into the future as 2035, and that cities like
Guangzhou are likely to need effective vehicles, then it is worth considering what kind of commuter
vehicle may have evolved by this period.
“As we look ahead, the potential for us to not have to commute on a daily basis is increasing…
remote working and telepresence will enable more of us to avoid unproductive travel” (Jones, 2010)
It could be argued that this statement is erroneous as it seems not to take into consideration that
people may still wish to go to a separate workplace and that vehicles may be radically different in
the coming years due to currently developing technologies and indeed that travelling may not need
to be unproductive. The following predictive timeline created by IEEE Spectrum shows that by the
year 2032 half of all new cars will be autonomous.



(Spectrum, 2014)
It does not have to be, especially with the development of systems such as autonomous driving with
vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure communication. A travelling office is a real possibility.
If you don’t have to pay full attention to the road and your surroundings you have time to get on
with work. Being able to work in your vehicle means that companies will adopt a more flexible
schedule which will reduce the stress on the roads. There would also be the opportunity to use the
vehicles for relieving stress on commuters too by having the interior as a relaxing environment.
Following the research I have developed a design for a commuter vehicle that will suit the future
conditions of the Pearl River Delta Megacity region. By the year 2035 I believe that there will be a
requirement for a new class of commuter vehicle. It will take over from the taxis of today and make
a huge dent on personal cars of city workers. It will need to blend automation, vehicle to vehicle and
vehicle to infrastructure communication, shared usage and mass travel all together. I envisage that it
will be used by the ever growing middle class commuter within the city along with the ever present
tourists in the mega city.
“By replacing the human driver with an electrical operating system, cars are able to drive at high
speed at short distances behind one another.” (Schilperoord, 2006)
Vehicle safety is always a priority when it comes to modern vehicle design. By automating the driving
process you can eliminate human error and reduce reaction times for such things as braking and
accelerating. This in turn makes the process safer, the traffic run smoother and reduces the chances
of blocked roads.
There will most likely still be many cars on the roads that don’t have full automation so certain
safety aspects will still be require, crumple zones, airbags, seatbelts etc. But the automated vehicles
could have their own lanes on the larger roads. Similar to how bus lanes and carpool lanes exist at
the moment. The following extract shows that the major car manufacturers of today are seriously
thinking about the development of the driving experience.


“Certainly, car sharing is an option,” says Ralf Herrtwich, a leader in Mercedes’s autonomous car
project, in Stuttgart. “Get the vehicle at your command, drop it at your convenience, no parking.”
(Spectrum.ieee.org, 2014)
The car sharing aspect lead me onto further developing the idea that you can buy your own carriage
or you can use a standard issue version much like a the choice between owning your own car or
using a taxi service in the present day.
The materials that will be used to construct the vehicle will be lightweight and the need for crash
protection will be lower as the chances of crashing would have been reduced. I imagine that by the
year 2035 the majority of structural components of the vehicles will be a variety of inexpensive yet
super strong polymers such as carbon fibre based sheeting.
I came to this conclusion by looking backwards at the development in the materials used in vehicle
production. The original vehicles such as litters, carts and carriages were constructed from wood.
Then as the vehicles developed at the car was created, the body was constructed from beaten sheet
steel over wooden or iron frames. As technology moved forward so did the way the vehicle body
was constructed. The car chassis became part of the car bodywork when the monocoque chassis was
created. Now the development has moved on further and the top car manufacturers such as Audi
and Jaguar are now using monocoque chassis made from aluminium to provide the same strength as
the steel equivalent but at a reduced weight. This in turn gives the consumers better fuel
consumption.
“Aluminium is a relatively recent addition to the world of metals. Audi have embraced this high‐tech,
lightweight material with its incredible mechanical properties, and made it a major feature of their
brand‐testament to their commitment to developing and using advanced engineering and
materials... The A8 model offers a substantial weight reduction compared with similar cars. The
space frame” weighs only 215kg, almost half the weight of an equivalent frame in steel” (Lefteri,
2006)
Further developments in materials in car manufacturing has led to the use of carbon fibre reinforced
plastics becoming more popular. As you can see, the trend in the industry has always been to find a
safer, lighter weight and stronger material for the body and chassis construction.
Recently a company called Local Motors has used the latest 3D printing technology to create a car
chassis and body in full for an electric car. This innovative thinking could lead to a future scenario
where cars are fully manufactured from Direct Digital Manufacturing also known as 3D printing. This
can reduce tooling costs and the numbers of components needed.



(Local Motors, 3D Printed Car, Exploded View, 2014)
The aesthetics will blend cutting edge styling with nods to the transport type’s historic cultural roots.
Sweeping aerodynamically designed profiles are beneficial for the fuel economy of the vehicle which
extends the range in which it can travel. There are historical references to the classic rickshaws with
pole like attachments at the front of the vehicle, the high seating position and the traditional red and
gold colouring.


The vehicle will fully embrace the need for social connectivity of the users. As the user enters the
vehicle they will be logged into their own social stream. This can be used by the tourists to find
attractions and events in the area as well as letting them interact with friends around the world.

The major use for the vehicle however will be for commuting. The users can buy their own carriage
unit or choose to lease one. The drive units will be like the ‘runners’ of traditional rickshaws and will
contain all the mechanical workings, the vehicle to vehicle technologies and the power cell units.
The way the vehicle is powered will be a huge improvement over current procedures. Currently the
majority of fully electric vehicles are charged from main grid power and have stay at the power
source. This is a threefold problem, you cannot use the vehicle now it is charging and it is still using
the scarce and expensive fossil fuels to provide the energy that will be damaging the environment.
The fossil fuel supply will be an increasing problem in the coming decades.
“There are an estimated 1.3 trillion barrels of proven oil reserve left in the world's major fields,
which at present rates of consumption will be sufficient to last 40 years. By 2040, production levels
may be down to 15 million barrels per day – around 20% of what we currently consume.”
(Imeche.org, 2014)
In Guangzhou 2035 the fuel cells will be placed on long charge in solar charging stations and then
fully charged will be transferred into the drive unit. This way is beneficial as the drive unit does not
need any down time to recharge. A fully charged fuel cell is always ready when its current charge is
nearing depletion.



A luxury, autonomous vehicle that can be your office that is connected to the world through
superfast wireless internet or the tour guide carriage for visitors to the city, the Jiao is the ideal
commuter vehicle for the busy megacity Guangzhou in the year 2035.


References

Jones, T. (2010). Future Agenda: The World in 2020. 2nd ed. Oxford: Infinite Ideas, pp.181, 228,.
Population Density of China, (2014). [image] Available at: http://jb‐
hdnp.org/Sarver/Maps/WC/wc19_popdensitychinam.jpg [Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
Pearl River Delta Population. (2014). [image] Available at:
http://www.timeout.com.hk/media/content/cropped/139/PRD‐city‐graphs‐population‐x‐year.jpg
[Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
China‐trade‐research.hktdc.com, (2014). Guangdong: Market Profile | HKTDC. [online] Available at:
http://china‐trade‐research.hktdc.com/business‐news/article/Fast‐Facts/Guangdong‐Market‐
Profile/ff/en/1/1X000000/1X06BUOU.htm [Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
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http://lordalton.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/008.jpg [Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
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central‐london‐road‐traffic‐only.png [Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
Growth in London Overground demand. (2014). [image] Available at:
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Oxford Dictionaries, (2014). In: 1st ed. [online] Available at:
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/commute [Accessed 18 Nov. 2014].
Online Etymology Dictionary, (2014). In: Online Etymology Dictionary, 1st ed. [online] Available at:
http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=commuter&allowed_in_frame=0 [Accessed 7 Dec.
2014].
Rodrigue, D. (2014). Historical Geography of Transportation: The Emergence of Mechanized Systems.
[online] People.hofstra.edu. Available at:
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2014].
UNESCO. (2001). Saltaire ‐ UNESCO World Heritage Centre. [online] Whc.unesco.org. Available at:
http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1028 [Accessed 1 Dec. 2014].
Chinese‐traditions‐and‐culture.com, (2014). Modes of Transportation in China. [online] Available at:
http://www.chinese‐traditions‐and‐culture.com/transportation_in_China.html [Accessed 17 Nov.
2014].
Chinese Rickshaw. (2014). [image] Available at:
http://www.kidsco.co.uk/Oriental%20Images/Rickshaw.gif [Accessed 17 Nov. 2014].
Sedan Chair Illustration. (2014). [image] Available at: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/‐KhdQ0‐bfC‐
8/UmLU0qiNEsI/AAAAAAAAEHY/aGW9mEbwrds/s1600/sedan‐chair.jpg [Accessed 7 Dec. 2014].


Oica.net, (2014). Production Statistics | OICA. [online] Available at:
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cars/driverless‐cars‐optional‐by‐2024‐mandatory‐by‐2044 [Accessed 7 Dec. 2014].
Schilperoord, P. (2006). Future tech. London: Black Dog, p.21.
Spectrum.ieee.org, (2014). Driverless Cars: Optional by 2024, Mandatory by 2044 ‐ IEEE Spectrum.
[online] Available at: http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportation/advanced‐cars/driverless‐cars‐
optional‐by‐2024‐mandatory‐by‐2044 [Accessed 1 Dec. 2014].
Lefteri, C. (2006). Materials for inspirational design. Mies, Switzerland: RotoVision, p.131.
Local Motors, 3D Printed Car, Exploded View. (2014). [image] Available at:
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2014/07/03/local‐motors‐3d‐printed‐car‐could‐lead‐american‐
manufacturing‐revolution/ [Accessed 7 Dec. 2014].
Imeche.org, (2014). When will oil run out? | Institution of Mechanical Engineers. [online] Available
at: http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/energy/energy‐supply/fossil‐energy/when‐will‐
oil‐run‐out [Accessed 7 Dec. 2014].

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