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Chris Skinner
www.thefinanser.com
the future of global
      banking
SEPA
                                  €50m

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Banking-Globalised-Skinner-
Chronicles/dp/047051034X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1214062513&sr=8-1
MiFID
                                 <50

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Investing-Europes-Markets-
after/dp/0470510382/ref=pd_sim_b_6
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/02/the-new-eu-regulator-and-liquidity-risk.html
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/03/robobank-no-human-hands-needed.html
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/03/jibun-bank-the-mobile-only-bank.html
β€œAsia has around 600,000 villages and maybe 600 to 700 million
unbanked people there. If you want to get to that mass,
technology is the only thing that works.

β€œToday, in a bank like ICICI Bank, you have less than 15% of
transactions taking place within a branch. Five years back, 95% of
the transactions took place within a branch. So you have an idea
of what happens when the technology touches the unusual.

β€œIf I look at cost per transaction, it is about a tenth of a western
bank. That is entirely because we could leapfrog a generation of
technology.”
K V Kamath, CEO, October 2006
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/04/africas-mobile-revolution.html
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/04/creating-a-bank-that-rocks.html
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2008/07/bbva-the-
first.html
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/06/a-spanish-first-social-banking.html
β€œWe can move into a new country with credit cards with an
investment of $1-$2 million, mainly on marketing, because we
don’t have to build all that infrastructure. We can move into a
country with full service banking for under $10 million, which is a
fraction of our competitors. We just open a building and sell,
because everything is delivered through the network.”
Ken Harvey, CTSO

  http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2008/12/-hsbc-banking-on-the-network.html
the future
Β©Chris Skinner   +44 790 586 2270   chris.skinner@fsclub.co.uk
the critical point
The times, they are changing
  1959       1969     1979




                       2009

  1989      1999
$800,000
                         1999
   Meetings                               Mailing
    40 UK                              10,000 people
   8 Ireland                           Twice weekly
     6 CEE
                                         $300,000
    $150,000

                                         Brochures
    Newsletter
                                         10,000+
1,000 people daily
                                       Annual update
    Text only           Website
    $100,000         Non-interactive     $150,000
                      Custom-build
                        $100,000

           33
$160,000
                         2009
   Meetings                               Mailing
    40 UK                              10,000 people
   8 Ireland                           Twice weekly
     6 CEE
                                           Free
    $150,000

                                         Brochures
    Newsletter
                                         10,000+
1,000 people daily
                                       Annual update
   Multimedia           Website
                     Non-interactive       Gone
      $149
                      Custom-build
                        $10,000

             34
1975
2000
2010
European Order Book Volumes
                                       Value of Equity trading, March 2009
                              Exchange / MTF             Order Book Trades   Order Book Turnover (EUR m)

     1       London Stock Exchange                         17,279,867                123,650.0

     2       Euronext                                      15,365,479                116,839.0

     3       Deutsche Borse                                 8,118,311                 95,835.8

     4       Spanish Exchange (BME)                         2,832,093                 60,682.8

     5       Chi-X Europe                                  10,554,888                57,168.5

     6       Borsa Italiana                                 6,227,802                 45,937.2

     7       SWX Europe                                     2,875,388                 45,495.4

     8       NASDAQ OMX Nordic                              4,802,676                 43,150.6

     9       Turquoise                                      3,309,508                 22,567.8

    10       Oslo Bors                                      1,240,279                 11,397.7

    11       BATS Europe                                    1,760,985                 8,277.7

    12       SIX Swiss Exchange                              462,090                  2,802.3

    13       Wiener Borse                                    440,927                  2,781.6

    14       Warsaw Stock Exchange                          1,200,689                 2,545.6

    15       Athens Exchange                                 669,246                  2,228.3

Figures sourced from FESE
In a Best Price Routing world
                                                 Potential Market Share Changes Under Best Price Routing

                                     20%
                                     18%
    Potential market share change%




                                     16%
                                     14%
                                     12%
                                     10%
                                      8%
                                      6%
                                      4%
                                      2%
                                      0%
                                     -2%      M TFs               Eurone xt                     LSE        Deutsche Borse
                                     -4%
                                     -6%
                                     -8%

                                                                 Nov-08       Dec-08   Jan-09    Feb-09

  Under best price routing, research shows that there would be a significant shift in liquidity and market
  share to the new MTFs, while the incumbent exchanges would lose market share.




Source: Equiduct Orange LFA
Do                         Don’t
    Build customer confidence
                                         Anger the customer
             Cut costs
                                      Cut for the sake of cutting
 Focus upon operational efficiency
                                     Ignore new business models
Reduce branch overheads / branches
                                           Stop innovating
     Invest in mobility services
Further                    Reading
Blog Index (from April 2009)
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/the-week/

A Directory of Social Finance
http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/04/a-directory-of-social-finance.html

The Future of Banking: in a Globalised World
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Banking-Globalised-Skinner-
Chronicles/dp/047051034X/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_b

The Financial Services Club Library (members only)
www.thefinanser.com

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Global Banking Innovations

  • 2. the future of global banking
  • 3.
  • 4. SEPA €50m http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Banking-Globalised-Skinner- Chronicles/dp/047051034X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1214062513&sr=8-1
  • 5.
  • 6. MiFID <50 http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Investing-Europes-Markets- after/dp/0470510382/ref=pd_sim_b_6
  • 7.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 13.
  • 14. β€œAsia has around 600,000 villages and maybe 600 to 700 million unbanked people there. If you want to get to that mass, technology is the only thing that works. β€œToday, in a bank like ICICI Bank, you have less than 15% of transactions taking place within a branch. Five years back, 95% of the transactions took place within a branch. So you have an idea of what happens when the technology touches the unusual. β€œIf I look at cost per transaction, it is about a tenth of a western bank. That is entirely because we could leapfrog a generation of technology.” K V Kamath, CEO, October 2006
  • 15.
  • 17.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 23. β€œWe can move into a new country with credit cards with an investment of $1-$2 million, mainly on marketing, because we don’t have to build all that infrastructure. We can move into a country with full service banking for under $10 million, which is a fraction of our competitors. We just open a building and sell, because everything is delivered through the network.” Ken Harvey, CTSO http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2008/12/-hsbc-banking-on-the-network.html
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Β©Chris Skinner +44 790 586 2270 chris.skinner@fsclub.co.uk
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 32. The times, they are changing 1959 1969 1979 2009 1989 1999
  • 33. $800,000 1999 Meetings Mailing 40 UK 10,000 people 8 Ireland Twice weekly 6 CEE $300,000 $150,000 Brochures Newsletter 10,000+ 1,000 people daily Annual update Text only Website $100,000 Non-interactive $150,000 Custom-build $100,000 33
  • 34. $160,000 2009 Meetings Mailing 40 UK 10,000 people 8 Ireland Twice weekly 6 CEE Free $150,000 Brochures Newsletter 10,000+ 1,000 people daily Annual update Multimedia Website Non-interactive Gone $149 Custom-build $10,000 34
  • 35. 1975
  • 36. 2000
  • 37. 2010
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. European Order Book Volumes Value of Equity trading, March 2009 Exchange / MTF Order Book Trades Order Book Turnover (EUR m) 1 London Stock Exchange 17,279,867 123,650.0 2 Euronext 15,365,479 116,839.0 3 Deutsche Borse 8,118,311 95,835.8 4 Spanish Exchange (BME) 2,832,093 60,682.8 5 Chi-X Europe 10,554,888 57,168.5 6 Borsa Italiana 6,227,802 45,937.2 7 SWX Europe 2,875,388 45,495.4 8 NASDAQ OMX Nordic 4,802,676 43,150.6 9 Turquoise 3,309,508 22,567.8 10 Oslo Bors 1,240,279 11,397.7 11 BATS Europe 1,760,985 8,277.7 12 SIX Swiss Exchange 462,090 2,802.3 13 Wiener Borse 440,927 2,781.6 14 Warsaw Stock Exchange 1,200,689 2,545.6 15 Athens Exchange 669,246 2,228.3 Figures sourced from FESE
  • 43. In a Best Price Routing world Potential Market Share Changes Under Best Price Routing 20% 18% Potential market share change% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% M TFs Eurone xt LSE Deutsche Borse -4% -6% -8% Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Under best price routing, research shows that there would be a significant shift in liquidity and market share to the new MTFs, while the incumbent exchanges would lose market share. Source: Equiduct Orange LFA
  • 44. Do Don’t Build customer confidence Anger the customer Cut costs Cut for the sake of cutting Focus upon operational efficiency Ignore new business models Reduce branch overheads / branches Stop innovating Invest in mobility services
  • 45. Further Reading Blog Index (from April 2009) http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/the-week/ A Directory of Social Finance http://thefinanser.co.uk/fsclub/2009/04/a-directory-of-social-finance.html The Future of Banking: in a Globalised World http://www.amazon.co.uk/Future-Banking-Globalised-Skinner- Chronicles/dp/047051034X/ref=pd_bxgy_b_img_b The Financial Services Club Library (members only)