1. Influenza Pandemic
Workshopp
Ken Simpson
The VR Group Pty Ltd
September 2006
http://www.blog.vrg.net.au
http://www blog vrg net au
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2. Agenda
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3. Briefing on Pandemic Influenza
• What is it?
• p
How does it spread?
• Likely impacts
• Challenges
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4. Some definitions
• Influenza
– Influenza (the flu) is a very infectious illness caused by a virus. It is much more
serious than a common cold and can leave you ill for up to 10 days.
– Symptoms of the flu include: a high fever, headache, muscle aches and pains,
fatigue, cough
fatigue cough, sore throat or a runny nose. It may take up to three days to feel
throat, nose
symptoms after you catch the flu (the incubation period).
– Anyone can get the flu – being fit, active and healthy does not protect you from
getting this virus.
• Avian Influenza
– Avian influenza refers to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily
affect birds.
– On rare occasions, these bird viruses can infect other species, including pigs and
humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect humans.
– We are not planning for Avian Influenza
• H5N1
– Is a specific influenza subtype
– Avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt
into
i t a strain that is contagious among h
t i th t i t i humans
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5. Pandemic Influenza
• … i what we are planning f
is h t l i for
• Pandemic is an Epidemic
occurring simultaneously in
g y
multiple countries
• Pandemic requires 3
conditions
– A new virus emerges which has
not previously infected humans
therefore nobody has antibodies
to fight it (Avian H5N1 strain)
– The virus makes humans
seriously ill
y
– The virus is capable of efficient
human to human transmission
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6. Pandemics are not new
• They are (rare but) recurring events
• There were 3 in the 20th Century
– 1918, Spanish Flu
• E ti t d 40 50 million d d
Estimated 40-50 illi dead
– 1957, Asian Influenza
• Estimated 2 million deaths
– 1968, Hong Kong Flu
• Estimated 1 million deaths
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7. Pandemic and Business Continuity
• B i
Business C ti it i concerned with IMPACT
Continuity is d ith
not LIKELIHOOD
• Pandemic influenza will leverage existing BC
capabilities
– Incident Management
– Mission Critical Activities
– Minimum operating requirements
• Specific threat, may not match previous planning
– Gl b l i
Global impact
t
– Longer-term
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8. More definitions
• WHO Phases
– Adapted by Dept of Health for Australia
• Vaccine
• Anti-virals
Anti virals
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9. More definitions
• WHO Phases
• Vaccine
– Not currently available
– Not expected until approx 6
p pp
months after the outbreak
• Anti-Virals
– Medication that may reduce the impact of the
symptoms
– Seen in some quarters as having potential for use to
prevent illness (prophylaxis)
– Are in very short supply
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10. Spreading the virus
• Droplet
D l
– occurs when large (greater than or equal to five micrometre diameter)
droplets are generated, propelled a distance of up to one metre and
deposited on the mouth, nose or eyes of another person.
– requires close contact as th d l t d not remain suspended i th
i l t t the droplets do t i d d in the
air and generally only travel short distances (usually a metre or less).
• Contact
– occu s
occurs when s
e skin to s
skin co tact results in the physical t a s e o micro-
contact esu ts t e p ys ca transfer of c o
organisms.
– can also occur when a virus contaminates a person’s hand and then that
person touches his or her mouth, nose or eyes.
– Indirect transmission occurs when the virus is transferred to a person’s
eyes,
eyes mouth or nose after coming into contact with a contaminated
object or surface.
– Influenza A and B viruses have been shown to survive on hard, non-
porous surfaces for 24–48 hours, on cloth, paper and tissue for less than
8–12 hours and on hands for 5 minutes.
• Airborne
– When smaller (less than five micrometres diameter) droplets or dust
particles containing the infectious agent are produced (e.g. from the
evaporation of water from larger droplets) which remain suspended in
the air, are dispersed by air currents, and may be inhaled by a person
who is some distance from the source patient.
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11. Basic mitigation strategies
• P
Personal P t ti
l Protective
Equipment (PPE)
–M k
Masks
– Gloves
– Protective eyewear
• Hand Hygiene
– Washing
• Social Distancing
– Alcohol-gel
– Isolation
• Cough/Sneeze – Quarantine
etiquette
– Avoiding crowds
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12. Comparison to SARS
• 1918 Spanish Flu • SARS
– 6 months to spread – Within weeks had
around the world spread to 8 countries
– Travelled around the
world th
ld three ti
times i
in – Possible that modern
two years influenza pandemic
• In an era when a plane
could spread around
ld d d
couldn’t fly across the
Atlantic the world in 30-60
days
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13. Spreading the virus – 747 style
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14. Likely impacts
• Primarily a people impact
• Not a single incident
– Pandemic “waves” (approx 8-
12 weeks in duration)
– Can expect 3 waves, pe aps
Ca e pect a es, perhaps
over 2 year period
• Disrupt global supply chains
• Can be expected to have a
significant economic impact
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15. Random thoughts
• WHO Phases do not always translate well
to Corporate p
p planning
g
• Need to monitor for Trigger events
• Th most valuable asset t th b i
The t l bl t to the business
will be a staff member who has had
influenza and recovered
• De-escalation from WHO 6 is as important
to manage as the escalation
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16. Standard Business Continuity
Phases
• P
Prevention
ti
– Things we do to reduce the likelihood or impact
• P
Preparedness
d
– Being prepared to execute the Response/Recovery
phases
• Response
– To various trigger points
– Also includes business resumption activities
• Recovery
– Will include the de-escalation between “waves”
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17. Challenges for us
• Support essential business
processes/service delivery
• Support for remote working
• Increased focus on Service Desk
process
– Increase in number of staff working
in unfamiliar jobs with unfamiliar
systems
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18. Action Plan
• Model impact on business
• Determine Trigger Points
gg
• Action Plans
– People issues
– Operational issues
– Consider reactions by
government
• Borders
• Schools
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19. Impact Modelling
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
5% 12% 15% 25% 40% 50% 55% 50% 40% 30% 25% 10%
Absenteeism Remote Access
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20. Impact Modelling
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Min Staffing Absenteeism
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21. Trigger Points
• WHO upgrade to Phase 4
d t Ph
• WHO upgrade to Phase 5 in any country
pg y y
• Australian DOHA declaration of Phase 6
AUS
• First case in our company
• S
Schools closed
• Borders closed
• De-escalation from AUS 6c
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22. Identification of critical Process/
Services
• Wh t are they?
What th ?
• What are the essential
components of the
t f th
service?
–PPeople
l
– Process
– Technology
• Are there any critical
suppliers that this
service relies on?
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23. Any Questions?
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