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                                                     A joint publication of Chatham House and CIGI




From London to L’Aquila
Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8

Paola Subacchi and Eric Helleiner
International Economics   | June 2009 | IE/CIGI BP 2009/01




        Summary points

             From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 leaders at the beginning of
             April 2009 was a success – and a hard act to follow. The discussion was framed
             around crisis resolution and the strengthening of the international financial architecture.
             Beyond any concrete achievement, the success of the London Summit is that it
             morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, rather than remaining a
             one-off event.
             Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency of the G8 has a hard task, being caught
             between the success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. But there
             is also scope for building a meaningful bridge between London and the G8 meeting
             in L’Aquila in July 2009, and continuing and strengthening the economic governance
             reform process.
             There is an urgent need to continue to push for progress on a number of key
             items that were not adequately addressed at the London Summit and where
             progress can be made in L’Aquila – fostering clarity for the G20 agenda for the
             next meeting in Pittsburgh in September 2009.
             With regard, in particular, to the reform of the International Monetary Fund, the
             Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate a dialogue on reform of the
             European representation, taking advantage of having all the key players gathered
             together in L’Aquila.




www.cigionline.org                                                                    www.chathamhouse.org.uk
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8
page 2




         Introduction: the unfinished agenda                                                        Policy coordination in a time of crisis
         From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20                                       Trying to reach agreement on coordinated fiscal measures
         leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success. Its                                  to boost demand in the main economies was one of the
         main achievement – and real novelty – was to address                                       stickiest points in London and risked derailing the
         and discuss the reform of the international financial                                      meeting. In the end the view of ‘sharing the burden
         architecture within the context of the current financial                                   together’ to resolve the crisis prevailed, as did the recogni-
         crisis. Following talks that had begun at the first G20 lead-                              tion that the global crisis required global solutions with
         ers’ summit in Washington in November 2008, the focus                                      the participation of all countries and with due considera-
         became both more specific and wider in London. Here                                        tion of the impact of actions on developing countries.
         the discussion was framed around two key areas: crisis                                        The question of a coordinated policy response at a
         resolution and the strengthening of the international                                      time of crisis – which does not necessarily mean a coor-
         financial and monetary architecture. The outcome was a                                     dinated fiscal stimulus – remains on the agenda and
         number of reforms to the content and governance of                                         should be picked up for discussion in L’Aquila. What
         international financial regulation, designed to head off                                   emerged in London, and should provide a thread for
         future crises. The G20 leaders addressed the immediate                                     discussion among the G8, was the awareness that policy
         crisis in other important ways, most notably through                                       coordination is necessary since the impact of the crisis
         their commitment to empower the International                                              is too large for countries to deal with on an individual
         Monetary Fund (IMF) as a crisis resolution institution by                                  basis. It is also necessary to implement reforms of
         increasing the resources available to it.                                                  financial markets and institutions as well as to mitigate
             The achievements of the G20 London Summit make it a                                    the impact of bailout plans and stimulus packages on
         difficult act to follow. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency                                neighbouring economies and trading partners. Even if
         of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the                                        these measures fall within the remit of domestic
         success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8.                                  economic policy, they can have an adverse impact on
         However, there are a number of areas where the G20                                         other countries, triggering protectionist responses and
         leaders fell short in addressing both the need for imme-                                   retaliation.1 Recent experience shows that even small
         diate crisis resolution and future crisis prevention, as well                              countries, such as Iceland, can be the source of signifi-
         as the broader issue of the governance of economic inter-                                  cant spillovers. However, mechanisms to ensure that
         national institutions. As a result, the Italian Presidency                                 national policies are undertaken with external as well
         has the opportunity to build on key gains from the                                         as domestic consequences in mind remain inadequate.2
         London Summit, and to make progress on key items that                                         To signal their support for policy coordination, the
         were not adequately addressed there, creating a mean-                                      G20 leaders in London endorsed ‘candid, even-handed,
         ingful bridge between London and L’Aquila.                                                 and independent IMF surveillance’. But the details


             The G20’s unfinished agenda
                  The Summit failed to define a coordinated plan to identify and clear out toxic assets from the banking sector.
                  Details are still to be worked out concerning the implementation of macroprudential regulation.
                  There was no concrete and substantive reform of international institutions, most notably the IMF.
                  No new deadline was set to complete the Doha round of trade talks. No strong legal measures (as opposed to
                  non-binding pledges) were taken to ensure countries do not introduce further protectionist trade policies.



         1    There are signs of tensions, for instance, between Canada and the US following the ‘Buy American’ clause in the US fiscal stimulus bill. Not only do protectionist meas-
              ures risk damaging trading relations and sparking tit-for-tat responses but they are difficult to implement in internationally integrated supply chains. Requiring companies
              to change their sourcing arrangements to host country creates extra costs and assumes the extra production capacity is in place there, when it may not be.
         2    Barry Eichengreen, ‘Out of the Box Thoughts about the International Financial Architecture’, IMF Working Paper, May 2009, pp. 1–26.




         www.chathamhouse.org.uk                                                                                                                             www.cigionline.org
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8




                                                                                                                                                                page 3
concerning macroeconomic policy coordination, partic-                                take a number of immediate specific actions ranging from
ularly vis-à-vis global imbalances, were not spelled out.                            the imposition of withholding taxes to forced reporting of
Further indications on this matter emerged at the IMF                                transactions with non-cooperative jurisdictions. The G20
Spring Meetings in April where there were calls to                                   leaders also signalled that tax havens would soon face
improve the surveillance process. The G8 Summit could                                pressure to comply with international prudential and
demonstrate political will by developing some concrete                               supervisory standards as well. Countries on the tax haven
proposals for the reform of the IMF’s surveillance role.                             ‘grey list’ such as Luxembourg are currently working hard
    In their London Summit communiqué, the G20 leaders                               to establish free exchanges of tax information to enable
reiterated the commitment made in Washington to trade                                them to be removed from the list by the next G20 meeting
and investment openness: ‘We will minimize any negative                              in September.4 There have been suggestions that a new
impact on trade and investment of our domestic policy                                amnesty on tax havens may be on the agenda at L’Aquila
actions including fiscal policy and action in support of the                         – with the aim of regularizing billions of dollars currently
financial sector’. Given the trend for countries to resort to                        held in overseas havens by encouraging individuals to
protectionist measures since the financial crisis worsened                           come forward and declare their funds.
in November – 55 of the 77 trade measures enacted around                                In addition, the London Summit strengthened inter-
the world were trade-restrictive – the challenge for the G20                         national regulations relating to bond rating agencies,
was to substantiate this statement with some concrete                                compensation issues involving significant financial
measures, such as ensuring the availability of $250 billion                          institutions, derivatives and hedge funds. It is crucial
over the next two years to support trade finance. The                                that the political momentum behind these goals be
leaders reiterated their commitment to a quick and                                   maintained and that national and regional initiatives
successful conclusion to the Doha round of trade negotia-                            continue to work towards them. For these reasons, at
tions, which, according to their communiqué, ‘could boost                            the July Summit G8 leaders should re-emphasize the
the global economy by at least $150 billion per annum’.                              importance of their implementation.
However, no new deadline was set to complete the Doha                                   Even more ambitiously, the G20 leaders tasked the IMF
round, which has been in discussion for eight years.                                 and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) with the job of
                                                                                     producing guidelines for national authorities ‘to assess
Strengthening international financial                                                whether a financial institution, market, or an instrument is
regulation …                                                                         systemically important’ in order that regulation and super-
At the Washington Summit, the G20 leaders had focused                                vision be extended to these entities. They went out of their
primarily on the forward-looking task of reforming inter-                            way to insist that ‘these guidelines should focus on what
national financial regulation in the light of lessons learned                        institutions do rather than their legal form’.5 The guidelines
from the crisis. This issue remained a prominent item on                             raise the question of whether systematically important insti-
the agenda at the London Summit, and the leaders went                                tutions should be subject to higher standards or restricted
beyond the commitments outlined in their ‘Washington                                 from certain high-risk activities, as some have suggested.
Action Plan’ in a number of ways. Tax havens that did not
                3
                                                                                     The G20 leaders dodged this question at the London
meet international standards on tax information                                      Summit, but it will soon have to be faced more squarely.
exchange were now warned that the G20 stood ready to                                 The G8 summit could help accelerate this discussion.


3    In Washington the G20 leaders agreed on a work plan – ‘the Washington Action Plan’ – to implement five agreed principles for reform. G20, Washington
     Action Plan: ‘Action plan to implement principles for reform’, 15 November 2008, http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/washington-follow-
     up/washington-action-plan1/.
4    To be removed from the OECD’s grey list, a country must have set up information-exchange agreements with at least 12 countries. Luxembourg has completed
     its fourth agreement, with France, in June (after the US, the Netherlands and Bahrain).
5    G20, Communiqué from the London Summit: ‘Global plan for recovery and reform’, Annex ‘Declaration on Strengthening the Financial System’,
     http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-communique/, 2 April 2009, p. 3.




www.cigionline.org                                                                                                        www.chathamhouse.org.uk
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8
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             Another important achievement in London was the                                   financial crisis, the FSF had played the lead role in coor-
         endorsement of detailed proposals to integrate ‘macropru-                             dinating the international regulatory response. The
         dential’ concerns into international financial regulation.                            London Summit renamed it the Financial Stability Board
         Historically, international prudential regulation has                                 and widened its mandate. It was assigned the job of
         focused at the micro-level of the soundness of specific                               collaborating with the IMF in conducting early-warning
         institutions and markets rather than larger factors that                              exercises as well as setting guidelines and supporting the
         might contribute to a system-wide build-up of excessive                               creation of supervisory colleges for large cross-border
         risks. The Washington Action Plan had already broken                                  firms. It was also tasked with undertaking ‘joint strategic
         new ground by asking officials in the Financial Stability                             reviews of the policy development work of the interna-
         Forum and other bodies to develop recommendations to                                  tional standard setting bodies to ensure their work is
         address the ‘pro-cyclicality’ of existing rules and practices.                        timely, coordinated, focused on priorities, and
         The G20 leaders in London then backed a number of                                     addressing gaps’.6 Membership of the body also now
         specific proposals relating to bank regulation and                                    came with the responsibility of implementing twelve key
         accounting practices that emerged on this macropruden-                                existing international standards and codes, and under-
         tial agenda, and set the end of 2009 as the deadline for their                        going periodic peer reviews. The membership of the FSB
         implementation.                                                                       was also widened beyond the G7 countries, Australia,
             These new detailed proposals are welcome, but impor-                              Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Singapore and Switzerland
         tant questions remain about their implementation that                                 to include all G20 countries as well as Spain and the
         the G20 leaders did not address. The most important                                   European Commission.7 It is not yet clear how many
         concerns the division of home and host country respon-                                representatives the new members will be assigned. Before
         sibilities vis-à-vis the regulation of banks. Although                                the expansion, there were two classes of members: the G7
         existing practice emphasizes home country control, the                                countries each had three representatives (finance
         new macroprudential regulations strengthen the case for                               ministry, central bank, and supervisory authority), while
         host countries to take more of the lead because credit                                the other five were only allowed one representative each.
         cycles vary across countries. Indeed, some argue that the                             The FSF simply announced at the time of the London
         case for host country control has been boosted more                                   Summit that the number of seats would ‘reflect the size of
         generally by the experience of financial rescues during                               the national economy, financial market activity and
         the financial crisis, where host countries have ended up                              national financial stability arrangements’.8
         assuming the burden. Whatever the costs and benefits of                                   An even more important issue that requires attention is
         home vs. host country control, the push for macropru-                                 the accountability of the FSB to all the other countries
         dential regulation has guaranteed that this jurisdictional                            which are not members. This issue is likely to become
         issue requires much more attention from policy-makers.                                increasingly politicized given the FSB’s new prominence
                                                                                               as one of the central pillars of global financial governance.
         … and its governance                                                                  One small way in which this was addressed at the London
         The London Summit broke new ground in reforming not                                   Summit was through the requirement that the FSB, along
         just the content of international financial regulation but                            with the IMF, report to the International Monetary and
         also its governance. Since the beginning of the global                                Financial Committee of the IMF on their early warning



         6    Ibid, p. 1.
         7    The body also includes international financial institutions, international regulatory and supervisory groupings, committees of central bank experts, and the
              European Central Bank.
         8    FSF, ‘Financial Stability Forum Re-established as the Financial Stability Board’, Financial Stability Forum Press release 14/2009, 2 April 2009, p. 1,
              http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/press/pr_090402b.pdf.
         9    G20, ‘Declaration on Strengthening’, p. 1.




         www.chathamhouse.org.uk                                                                                                                      www.cigionline.org
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8




                                                                                                                                                                 page 5
exercises concerning ‘the build up of macroeconomic and                                  billion under the new scheme. A few weeks later Poland
financial risks and the actions needed to address them’.                          9
                                                                                         filed an application for a precautionary credit line of
Provisions were also made for non-member countries                                       $20.5 billion and Colombia for $10.4 billion.
to be included in the FSB’s ad hoc working groups. In                                       In London it was also agreed to make the IMF’s lending
addition, it was announced that the new body ‘will step                                  and conditionality framework more flexible, so that, as
up its regional outreach activities to broaden the circle                                the communiqué stated, the IMF can address ‘effectively
of countries engaged in work to promote international                                    the underlying causes of countries’ balance of payments
financial stability’. In L’Aquila, the G8 leaders could
                           10
                                                                                         financing needs’. Rather than on specific actions that need
highlight their support for the development of further                                   to be adopted, the focus will be on the underlying objec-
mechanisms that enable non-FSB countries, particularly                                   tives of a country’s structural reform agenda, based on
low-income ones, to have their voices heard in interna-                                  key actions agreed with the country at the outset of the
tional financial regulatory discussions.                                                 loan programme that will serve as benchmarks. The new
                                                                                         framework will apply to all IMF loan programmes,
The resources and governance of the                                                      including those with low-income countries.
Bretton Woods institutions                                                                  In line with one of the two objectives for the reform of
The FSF/FSB was not the only international financial                                     the Bretton Woods institutions that were set at the
institution to see its role strengthened or expanded by                                  Washington Summit, the G20 leaders agreed in London ‘to
the London Summit. Even more dramatic was the                                            increase the resources available to the IMF’ and addressed
strengthening of the IMF’s lending facilities in order to                                the issue in a way that provided much more detail and new
provide aid to countries in need of financial assistance.                                initiatives. The agreement is quite innovative as it
This move was an important step towards the review of                                    combines various proposals – New Arrangements to
the adequacy of the resources of the IMF, the World                                      Borrow (NAB), special drawing rights (SDRs), gold sales,
Bank Group and other multilateral development banks                                      market borrowing for IMF. In their London Summit
that the Washington Summit indicated as an objective                                     communiqué, the G20 leaders agreed ‘to treble resources
for the G20 meeting in London.                                                           available to the IMF to $750 billion, to support a new SDR
     In London the G20 leaders welcomed the IMF’s deci-                                  allocation of $250 billion, to support at least $100 billion of
sion to create a ‘flexible credit line’ to grant rapid upfront                           additional lending by the MDBs [multilateral development
financing in large amounts for ‘strongly performing                                      banks], to ensure $250 billion of support for trade finance,
economies that needed insurance to protect them from                                     and to use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold
crisis fallout’.     11
                          This is particularly useful for crisis                         sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries’.
prevention purposes as it provides the flexibility to draw                               The SDR issue is particularly surprising and impressive,
on the credit line at any time. Access is restricted to coun-                            given the recent history of failed efforts to boost it, and has
tries that meet strict qualifying criteria. However, once a                              been positively picked up by China.
credit line has been approved, disbursements are not                                        Actual        numbers,     however,         remain        somewhat
phased, nor are they conditional on compliance with                                      ambiguous, in particular the breakdown of the financial
policy targets, as is normally the case for IMF loans. On                   12
                                                                                         resources allocated to the IMF. According to the London
the eve of the London Summit, Mexico stated that it                                      Summit communiqué, the increase in the resources avail-
intended to apply for a precautionary credit line of $47                                 able can be achieved ‘through immediate financing from


10    FSF, ‘Financial Stability Forum Re-established as the Financial Stability Board’ , 2 April 2009, p. 1,
11    More Needed to Revive Global Economy, Says IMF’ IMF press release, 16 April 2009,
      http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/new041609a.htm.
12    This is an important point for developing countries relative to the established G7 position – and a sign that the Washington Consensus might be over, as
      Gordon Brown said in the post-London Summit press conference.




www.cigionline.org                                                                                                             www.chathamhouse.org.uk
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8
page 6




         members of $250 billion, subsequently incorporated into                               and developing countries, including the poorest, must have
         an expanded and more flexible New Arrangements to                                     greater voice and representation’, but announced few
         Borrow, increased by up to $500 billion, and to consider                              details about how this would be done. To be sure, they
         market borrowing if necessary’.                                                       addressed the long-standing issue of leadership selection
              Some countries or regions, such as Japan and the                                 with the commitment that heads of international financial
         European Union, have committed resources directly to the                              institutions should be appointed ‘through an open, trans-
         IMF. In the specific case of Japan, $100 billion had already                          parent, and merit-based selection process’. However, this
         been made available at the time of the Washington Summit.                             still leaves quite unaddressed the much bigger issues of
         Some countries have committed smaller amounts – both                                  revising quotas, realigning the Executive Board and
         Canada and Switzerland $10 billion, and both Norway and                               reforming voting procedures. Legitimacy and accounta-
         Brazil $4.5 billion. Others made less firm commitments.                               bility to its members are critical for the IMF to fulfil its
         China, for instance, was said to be willing to buy $50 billion                        mandate effectively. Enlarging the emerging-market repre-
         in bonds issued by the IMF. Beijing’s willingness to consider                         sentation is fundamental in terms of reflecting structural
         contributing to the IMF liquidity is a significant follow-up                          changes in the international economic order.
         from the London Summit – thanks to a thorough prepara-                                   The G20 leaders stressed governance reform as a
         tion in the weeks before the meeting. Back in November,                               medium-term goal and made a commitment to accelerate
         China had made it clear that supporting its domestic                                  reform of country representation to early 2011. At the
         economy was its most pressing policy priority and it had                              IMF Spring Meetings, the International Monetary and
         responded to mounting international pressure to                                       Financial Committee urged a prompt start to the four-
         contribute funds to the IMF’s liquidity by stating unequivo-                          teenth general review of IMF quotas to ensure completion
         cally its unwillingness to comply with such a request.                                by January 2011, stressing that NAB ‘is not a substitute for
              However, the amount of funds so far raised is only                               a quota increase’.14 On the same occasion, the ministers in
         half the total that the G20 leaders indicated as necessary                            the 15-member African Consultative Group stressed the
         to provide appropriate assistance to countries in finan-                              need to accelerate reforms of governance to amplify
         cial need. Even though the US has now confirmed its                                   Africa’s voice within the IMF.
         offer of $100 billion, it is not clear where the rest will
                                      13
                                                                                                  An overhaul of the Executive Board with a view to
         come from as no other country has so far signalled the                                improving the representation of developing countries
         intention of providing significant funding.                                           implies reassessing the European representation so as
                                                                                               to reflect the economic weight not just of Germany,
         Governance and representation                                                         France and the UK but of the EU as a whole. This might
         In terms of the second of the two objectives that were set up                         eventually lead to the collapsing of the three European
         at the Washington Summit – the governance of the inter-                               seats – Germany, France and the UK – into a single EU
         national financial institutions – not much was achieved in                            seat.15 If the EU were to combine into a single
         London besides the broad agreement, confirmed in the                                  constituency with a reduced combined quota of votes,
         final communiqué, ‘to reform and modernise the interna-                               that would also release a very significant quota for
         tional financial institutions to ensure they can assist                               realignment, as well as giving the Europeans much
         members and shareholders effectively in the new chal-                                 more concentrated weight. An EU constituency would
         lenges they face’. The G20 leaders insisted that ‘emerging                            have a veto, giving it real voting power.16


         13    'US Congress Vote Marks Big Step for IMF Reform, Funding', IMF Survey online, 18 June 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW061809A.htm.
         14    ‘Communiqué of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund’, IMF Press Release No.
               09/139, 25 April 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/np/cm/2009/042509.htm.
         15    New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders, Chatham House and Atlantic Council Report, London, April 2009.
         16    Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, ‘A Single EU Seat in the IMF?’, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 42, No. 2 (2004), pp. 229–48.




         www.chathamhouse.org.uk                                                                                                                    www.cigionline.org
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8




                                                                                                                                       page 7
  With all the key players gathered together, including               concretely achieve. The agenda was undoubtedly ambi-
the US which, de facto, holds a veto under the current                tious, stretching from short-term stabilization of
IMF voting procedure, the Italian Presidency should seize             financial markets and lifting the real economy out of
this opportunity to initiate the dialogue and assess the              recession to the reform of the international financial and
concrete steps that are needed to move towards consoli-               monetary architecture. In the run-up to the Summit,
dated representation of European countries on the IMF                 however, diplomatic efforts intensified to enable agree-
executive board. Discussing the EU representation within              ment to be reached on some key issues. As a result, the
the IMF is politically difficult, but it cannot be avoided for        G20 leaders delivered on some bare essentials and set up
much longer. Europe should show leadership and be the                 a number of building blocks for future talks.
‘first mover’, rather than be eventually forced to confront              As discussed above, the London Summit’s main accom-
the question of IMF governance. In this respect it would              plishments relate to future crisis prevention, especially in
be easier for the Italians to raise the issue, given that Italy       terms of strengthening international financial regulation,
does not have a seat on the IMF’s board. What is at stake             the FSB and the IMF. Over and above this, the Summit did
is Europe’s relevance at the international level – espe-              much to restore confidence as the G20 leaders showed
cially critical in view of the increasingly intense US–China          some commitment to international policy coordination
dialogue. Europe’s ‘big four’ therefore have a responsi-              and multilateralism. Some of these points were turned
bility as well as the interest to bring up such a dialogue            into concrete action. As noted, the pledge to enhance the
and move it forward. In this respect, the L’Aquila Summit             IMF’s lending facilities through bilateral borrowing in
provides the best opportunity to bridge the policy gap                order to aid countries in need of financial assistance has
between the G20 and the G8, and to give some teeth – and              already provided assistance to Mexico, Poland and
relevance – to the latter.                                            Colombia. Similarly, on the regulatory framework some
                                                                      important new proposals emerged, particularly regarding
Conclusion: towards L’Aquila                                          hedge funds, compensation schemes and tax havens.
The London Summit was preceded by a combination of                    Some of these questions, however, though resonating well
high expectations and scepticism as to what it could                  with public opinion, are not critical in crisis resolution.


  Recommendations
        The Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate the dialogue on the reconfiguration of the number of seats and
        votes in the IMF to better reflect the economic and political realities of the 21st century. This should involve discussing
        and assessing a number of options for reform of the European representation, including an overhaul of the Executive
        Board and collapsing the European seats – Germany, France and the UK – into a single EU seat.
        G8 leaders should make clear their support for the development of further mechanisms that enable non-FSB countries,
        particularly low-income ones, to have their voices heard in international financial regulatory discussions.
        The G8 should spell out and reach agreement on how to implement coordinated macroeconomic policy responses
        particularly vis-à-vis global imbalances. In addition, the impact of bailout plans and stimulus packages on neighbouring
        economies and trading partners should be monitored and mitigated.
        The G8 Summit should demonstrate political will by developing some concrete proposals for the reform of the IMF’s
        surveillance role.
        The G8 should maintain the political momentum behind London Summit measures on strengthening international
        regulations relating to bond rating agencies, compensation issues involving significant financial institutions, derivatives,
        tax havens and hedge funds, and re-emphasize the importance of their implementation.
        The G8 summit should address the question of what action is still necessary for the financial sector to clean banks’
        balance sheets. It should also help accelerate the discussion on whether systematically important institutions should be
        subject to higher standards or restricted from certain high-risk activities.




www.cigionline.org                                                                                     www.chathamhouse.org.uk
From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8
page 8




         Immediate action still required for the financial sector       Chatham House has been the home of the Royal
         entails cleaning banks’ balance sheets.                        Institute of International Affairs for over eight decades.
           Relative to the G20’s Washington meeting, the London         Our mission is to be a world-leading source of
         Summit undoubtedly achieved a considerable amount.             independent analysis, informed debate and influential
         But beyond any concrete achievement, its success is that it    ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure
         morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda,         world for all.
         rather than remaining a one-off event.
           Because of the complexity of the agenda and the intri-       The Centre for International Governance Innovation
         cacies of dealing with so many players around the table,       (CIGI) is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that
         several issues were rolled over to the next meeting – or       addresses international governance challenges.
         were simply left out. Some will be on the agenda of the        Conducting an active agenda of research, events, and
         next G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in September. Others can        publications, CIGI’s interdisciplinary work includes
         be picked up at the forthcoming G8 Summit. Even though         collaboration with policy, business and academic
         the G8 agenda is much broader and includes a wider             communities around the world.
         variety of issues – such as development, security, Africa or
         climate change – there is an urgent need to continue to        Paola Subacchi is Research Director, International
         push for progress on the London Summit issues, particu-        Economics at Chatham House.
         larly since it seems that many G20 members have gone off
         and ‘done their own thing’ since April. Moreover, some         Eric Helleiner is CIGI Chair in International
         matters may well benefit from discussion in the more           Governance and Professor, Balsillie School of
         ‘intimate’ G8 setting.                                         International Affairs, University of Waterloo, Canada.
           It is now up to the Italian Presidency of the G8 to put
         some of these issues on the agenda for the L’Aquila            The paper has greatly benefited from comments from Andrew Baker,

         Summit. Particularly relevant is the question of the
                                                                        Gregory Chin, Andrew F. Cooper, Paolo Guerrieri, Robin Niblett,


         European representation in the IMF. The London
                                                                        Fabrizio Pagani, Stefano Pagliari, Lauren Phillips, Barbara Ridpath, Jim
                                                                        Rollo, Susan Schadler and Andrew Schrumm, and from participants to

         Summit was unable – and unwilling – to address the             the seminars ‘Dal G8 al G20: ripensare la global governance’, Rome,

         question of the governance of the IMF, leaving the reform
                                                                        21 May 2009, and ‘Global Governance for Global Markets: Moving


         of quotas and voting rights to 2011. However, this dead-
                                                                        Beyond the G8’, Berlin, 17 June 2009. The authors thank Ruth Davis
                                                                        for research assistance and Margaret May for editorial supervision.

         line is too far away for what is increasingly regarded as an
         urgent issue. The Italian Presidency has an opportunity        Chatham House

         to send a strong signal and initiate the dialogue on
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         reform of the European quota within the IMF, and should
                                                                        www.chathamhouse.org.uk

         promote the idea of a single EU constituency. Most of all,     Registered charity no: 208223

         it should seize the opportunity to link major economic         Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an
         discussions between the G8 leaders and key partners            independent body which promotes the rigorous study of

         among developing countries, indicating that action is
                                                                        international questions and does not express opinions of its own.
                                                                        The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of

         needed in the short term and ensuring clarity for the G20
                                                                        the authors.

         agenda for Pittsburgh in September.                            © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2009

                                                                        This material is offered free of charge for personal and
                                                                        non-commercial use, provided the source is acknowledged.
           This paper is part of a joint research project between       For commercial or any other use, prior written permission must be
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         www.chathamhouse.org.uk                                                                                            www.cigionline.org

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G20 - From London To Laquila

  • 1. briefing paper A joint publication of Chatham House and CIGI From London to L’Aquila Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 Paola Subacchi and Eric Helleiner International Economics | June 2009 | IE/CIGI BP 2009/01 Summary points From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success – and a hard act to follow. The discussion was framed around crisis resolution and the strengthening of the international financial architecture. Beyond any concrete achievement, the success of the London Summit is that it morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, rather than remaining a one-off event. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. But there is also scope for building a meaningful bridge between London and the G8 meeting in L’Aquila in July 2009, and continuing and strengthening the economic governance reform process. There is an urgent need to continue to push for progress on a number of key items that were not adequately addressed at the London Summit and where progress can be made in L’Aquila – fostering clarity for the G20 agenda for the next meeting in Pittsburgh in September 2009. With regard, in particular, to the reform of the International Monetary Fund, the Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate a dialogue on reform of the European representation, taking advantage of having all the key players gathered together in L’Aquila. www.cigionline.org www.chathamhouse.org.uk
  • 2. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 2 Introduction: the unfinished agenda Policy coordination in a time of crisis From many perspectives, the London Summit of the G20 Trying to reach agreement on coordinated fiscal measures leaders at the beginning of April 2009 was a success. Its to boost demand in the main economies was one of the main achievement – and real novelty – was to address stickiest points in London and risked derailing the and discuss the reform of the international financial meeting. In the end the view of ‘sharing the burden architecture within the context of the current financial together’ to resolve the crisis prevailed, as did the recogni- crisis. Following talks that had begun at the first G20 lead- tion that the global crisis required global solutions with ers’ summit in Washington in November 2008, the focus the participation of all countries and with due considera- became both more specific and wider in London. Here tion of the impact of actions on developing countries. the discussion was framed around two key areas: crisis The question of a coordinated policy response at a resolution and the strengthening of the international time of crisis – which does not necessarily mean a coor- financial and monetary architecture. The outcome was a dinated fiscal stimulus – remains on the agenda and number of reforms to the content and governance of should be picked up for discussion in L’Aquila. What international financial regulation, designed to head off emerged in London, and should provide a thread for future crises. The G20 leaders addressed the immediate discussion among the G8, was the awareness that policy crisis in other important ways, most notably through coordination is necessary since the impact of the crisis their commitment to empower the International is too large for countries to deal with on an individual Monetary Fund (IMF) as a crisis resolution institution by basis. It is also necessary to implement reforms of increasing the resources available to it. financial markets and institutions as well as to mitigate The achievements of the G20 London Summit make it a the impact of bailout plans and stimulus packages on difficult act to follow. Undoubtedly the Italian Presidency neighbouring economies and trading partners. Even if of the G8 has a hard task, being caught between the these measures fall within the remit of domestic success of London and the decreasing relevance of the G8. economic policy, they can have an adverse impact on However, there are a number of areas where the G20 other countries, triggering protectionist responses and leaders fell short in addressing both the need for imme- retaliation.1 Recent experience shows that even small diate crisis resolution and future crisis prevention, as well countries, such as Iceland, can be the source of signifi- as the broader issue of the governance of economic inter- cant spillovers. However, mechanisms to ensure that national institutions. As a result, the Italian Presidency national policies are undertaken with external as well has the opportunity to build on key gains from the as domestic consequences in mind remain inadequate.2 London Summit, and to make progress on key items that To signal their support for policy coordination, the were not adequately addressed there, creating a mean- G20 leaders in London endorsed ‘candid, even-handed, ingful bridge between London and L’Aquila. and independent IMF surveillance’. But the details The G20’s unfinished agenda The Summit failed to define a coordinated plan to identify and clear out toxic assets from the banking sector. Details are still to be worked out concerning the implementation of macroprudential regulation. There was no concrete and substantive reform of international institutions, most notably the IMF. No new deadline was set to complete the Doha round of trade talks. No strong legal measures (as opposed to non-binding pledges) were taken to ensure countries do not introduce further protectionist trade policies. 1 There are signs of tensions, for instance, between Canada and the US following the ‘Buy American’ clause in the US fiscal stimulus bill. Not only do protectionist meas- ures risk damaging trading relations and sparking tit-for-tat responses but they are difficult to implement in internationally integrated supply chains. Requiring companies to change their sourcing arrangements to host country creates extra costs and assumes the extra production capacity is in place there, when it may not be. 2 Barry Eichengreen, ‘Out of the Box Thoughts about the International Financial Architecture’, IMF Working Paper, May 2009, pp. 1–26. www.chathamhouse.org.uk www.cigionline.org
  • 3. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 3 concerning macroeconomic policy coordination, partic- take a number of immediate specific actions ranging from ularly vis-à-vis global imbalances, were not spelled out. the imposition of withholding taxes to forced reporting of Further indications on this matter emerged at the IMF transactions with non-cooperative jurisdictions. The G20 Spring Meetings in April where there were calls to leaders also signalled that tax havens would soon face improve the surveillance process. The G8 Summit could pressure to comply with international prudential and demonstrate political will by developing some concrete supervisory standards as well. Countries on the tax haven proposals for the reform of the IMF’s surveillance role. ‘grey list’ such as Luxembourg are currently working hard In their London Summit communiqué, the G20 leaders to establish free exchanges of tax information to enable reiterated the commitment made in Washington to trade them to be removed from the list by the next G20 meeting and investment openness: ‘We will minimize any negative in September.4 There have been suggestions that a new impact on trade and investment of our domestic policy amnesty on tax havens may be on the agenda at L’Aquila actions including fiscal policy and action in support of the – with the aim of regularizing billions of dollars currently financial sector’. Given the trend for countries to resort to held in overseas havens by encouraging individuals to protectionist measures since the financial crisis worsened come forward and declare their funds. in November – 55 of the 77 trade measures enacted around In addition, the London Summit strengthened inter- the world were trade-restrictive – the challenge for the G20 national regulations relating to bond rating agencies, was to substantiate this statement with some concrete compensation issues involving significant financial measures, such as ensuring the availability of $250 billion institutions, derivatives and hedge funds. It is crucial over the next two years to support trade finance. The that the political momentum behind these goals be leaders reiterated their commitment to a quick and maintained and that national and regional initiatives successful conclusion to the Doha round of trade negotia- continue to work towards them. For these reasons, at tions, which, according to their communiqué, ‘could boost the July Summit G8 leaders should re-emphasize the the global economy by at least $150 billion per annum’. importance of their implementation. However, no new deadline was set to complete the Doha Even more ambitiously, the G20 leaders tasked the IMF round, which has been in discussion for eight years. and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) with the job of producing guidelines for national authorities ‘to assess Strengthening international financial whether a financial institution, market, or an instrument is regulation … systemically important’ in order that regulation and super- At the Washington Summit, the G20 leaders had focused vision be extended to these entities. They went out of their primarily on the forward-looking task of reforming inter- way to insist that ‘these guidelines should focus on what national financial regulation in the light of lessons learned institutions do rather than their legal form’.5 The guidelines from the crisis. This issue remained a prominent item on raise the question of whether systematically important insti- the agenda at the London Summit, and the leaders went tutions should be subject to higher standards or restricted beyond the commitments outlined in their ‘Washington from certain high-risk activities, as some have suggested. Action Plan’ in a number of ways. Tax havens that did not 3 The G20 leaders dodged this question at the London meet international standards on tax information Summit, but it will soon have to be faced more squarely. exchange were now warned that the G20 stood ready to The G8 summit could help accelerate this discussion. 3 In Washington the G20 leaders agreed on a work plan – ‘the Washington Action Plan’ – to implement five agreed principles for reform. G20, Washington Action Plan: ‘Action plan to implement principles for reform’, 15 November 2008, http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/washington-follow- up/washington-action-plan1/. 4 To be removed from the OECD’s grey list, a country must have set up information-exchange agreements with at least 12 countries. Luxembourg has completed its fourth agreement, with France, in June (after the US, the Netherlands and Bahrain). 5 G20, Communiqué from the London Summit: ‘Global plan for recovery and reform’, Annex ‘Declaration on Strengthening the Financial System’, http://www.londonsummit.gov.uk/en/summit-aims/summit-communique/, 2 April 2009, p. 3. www.cigionline.org www.chathamhouse.org.uk
  • 4. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 4 Another important achievement in London was the financial crisis, the FSF had played the lead role in coor- endorsement of detailed proposals to integrate ‘macropru- dinating the international regulatory response. The dential’ concerns into international financial regulation. London Summit renamed it the Financial Stability Board Historically, international prudential regulation has and widened its mandate. It was assigned the job of focused at the micro-level of the soundness of specific collaborating with the IMF in conducting early-warning institutions and markets rather than larger factors that exercises as well as setting guidelines and supporting the might contribute to a system-wide build-up of excessive creation of supervisory colleges for large cross-border risks. The Washington Action Plan had already broken firms. It was also tasked with undertaking ‘joint strategic new ground by asking officials in the Financial Stability reviews of the policy development work of the interna- Forum and other bodies to develop recommendations to tional standard setting bodies to ensure their work is address the ‘pro-cyclicality’ of existing rules and practices. timely, coordinated, focused on priorities, and The G20 leaders in London then backed a number of addressing gaps’.6 Membership of the body also now specific proposals relating to bank regulation and came with the responsibility of implementing twelve key accounting practices that emerged on this macropruden- existing international standards and codes, and under- tial agenda, and set the end of 2009 as the deadline for their going periodic peer reviews. The membership of the FSB implementation. was also widened beyond the G7 countries, Australia, These new detailed proposals are welcome, but impor- Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Singapore and Switzerland tant questions remain about their implementation that to include all G20 countries as well as Spain and the the G20 leaders did not address. The most important European Commission.7 It is not yet clear how many concerns the division of home and host country respon- representatives the new members will be assigned. Before sibilities vis-à-vis the regulation of banks. Although the expansion, there were two classes of members: the G7 existing practice emphasizes home country control, the countries each had three representatives (finance new macroprudential regulations strengthen the case for ministry, central bank, and supervisory authority), while host countries to take more of the lead because credit the other five were only allowed one representative each. cycles vary across countries. Indeed, some argue that the The FSF simply announced at the time of the London case for host country control has been boosted more Summit that the number of seats would ‘reflect the size of generally by the experience of financial rescues during the national economy, financial market activity and the financial crisis, where host countries have ended up national financial stability arrangements’.8 assuming the burden. Whatever the costs and benefits of An even more important issue that requires attention is home vs. host country control, the push for macropru- the accountability of the FSB to all the other countries dential regulation has guaranteed that this jurisdictional which are not members. This issue is likely to become issue requires much more attention from policy-makers. increasingly politicized given the FSB’s new prominence as one of the central pillars of global financial governance. … and its governance One small way in which this was addressed at the London The London Summit broke new ground in reforming not Summit was through the requirement that the FSB, along just the content of international financial regulation but with the IMF, report to the International Monetary and also its governance. Since the beginning of the global Financial Committee of the IMF on their early warning 6 Ibid, p. 1. 7 The body also includes international financial institutions, international regulatory and supervisory groupings, committees of central bank experts, and the European Central Bank. 8 FSF, ‘Financial Stability Forum Re-established as the Financial Stability Board’, Financial Stability Forum Press release 14/2009, 2 April 2009, p. 1, http://www.financialstabilityboard.org/press/pr_090402b.pdf. 9 G20, ‘Declaration on Strengthening’, p. 1. www.chathamhouse.org.uk www.cigionline.org
  • 5. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 5 exercises concerning ‘the build up of macroeconomic and billion under the new scheme. A few weeks later Poland financial risks and the actions needed to address them’. 9 filed an application for a precautionary credit line of Provisions were also made for non-member countries $20.5 billion and Colombia for $10.4 billion. to be included in the FSB’s ad hoc working groups. In In London it was also agreed to make the IMF’s lending addition, it was announced that the new body ‘will step and conditionality framework more flexible, so that, as up its regional outreach activities to broaden the circle the communiqué stated, the IMF can address ‘effectively of countries engaged in work to promote international the underlying causes of countries’ balance of payments financial stability’. In L’Aquila, the G8 leaders could 10 financing needs’. Rather than on specific actions that need highlight their support for the development of further to be adopted, the focus will be on the underlying objec- mechanisms that enable non-FSB countries, particularly tives of a country’s structural reform agenda, based on low-income ones, to have their voices heard in interna- key actions agreed with the country at the outset of the tional financial regulatory discussions. loan programme that will serve as benchmarks. The new framework will apply to all IMF loan programmes, The resources and governance of the including those with low-income countries. Bretton Woods institutions In line with one of the two objectives for the reform of The FSF/FSB was not the only international financial the Bretton Woods institutions that were set at the institution to see its role strengthened or expanded by Washington Summit, the G20 leaders agreed in London ‘to the London Summit. Even more dramatic was the increase the resources available to the IMF’ and addressed strengthening of the IMF’s lending facilities in order to the issue in a way that provided much more detail and new provide aid to countries in need of financial assistance. initiatives. The agreement is quite innovative as it This move was an important step towards the review of combines various proposals – New Arrangements to the adequacy of the resources of the IMF, the World Borrow (NAB), special drawing rights (SDRs), gold sales, Bank Group and other multilateral development banks market borrowing for IMF. In their London Summit that the Washington Summit indicated as an objective communiqué, the G20 leaders agreed ‘to treble resources for the G20 meeting in London. available to the IMF to $750 billion, to support a new SDR In London the G20 leaders welcomed the IMF’s deci- allocation of $250 billion, to support at least $100 billion of sion to create a ‘flexible credit line’ to grant rapid upfront additional lending by the MDBs [multilateral development financing in large amounts for ‘strongly performing banks], to ensure $250 billion of support for trade finance, economies that needed insurance to protect them from and to use the additional resources from agreed IMF gold crisis fallout’. 11 This is particularly useful for crisis sales for concessional finance for the poorest countries’. prevention purposes as it provides the flexibility to draw The SDR issue is particularly surprising and impressive, on the credit line at any time. Access is restricted to coun- given the recent history of failed efforts to boost it, and has tries that meet strict qualifying criteria. However, once a been positively picked up by China. credit line has been approved, disbursements are not Actual numbers, however, remain somewhat phased, nor are they conditional on compliance with ambiguous, in particular the breakdown of the financial policy targets, as is normally the case for IMF loans. On 12 resources allocated to the IMF. According to the London the eve of the London Summit, Mexico stated that it Summit communiqué, the increase in the resources avail- intended to apply for a precautionary credit line of $47 able can be achieved ‘through immediate financing from 10 FSF, ‘Financial Stability Forum Re-established as the Financial Stability Board’ , 2 April 2009, p. 1, 11 More Needed to Revive Global Economy, Says IMF’ IMF press release, 16 April 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/new041609a.htm. 12 This is an important point for developing countries relative to the established G7 position – and a sign that the Washington Consensus might be over, as Gordon Brown said in the post-London Summit press conference. www.cigionline.org www.chathamhouse.org.uk
  • 6. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 6 members of $250 billion, subsequently incorporated into and developing countries, including the poorest, must have an expanded and more flexible New Arrangements to greater voice and representation’, but announced few Borrow, increased by up to $500 billion, and to consider details about how this would be done. To be sure, they market borrowing if necessary’. addressed the long-standing issue of leadership selection Some countries or regions, such as Japan and the with the commitment that heads of international financial European Union, have committed resources directly to the institutions should be appointed ‘through an open, trans- IMF. In the specific case of Japan, $100 billion had already parent, and merit-based selection process’. However, this been made available at the time of the Washington Summit. still leaves quite unaddressed the much bigger issues of Some countries have committed smaller amounts – both revising quotas, realigning the Executive Board and Canada and Switzerland $10 billion, and both Norway and reforming voting procedures. Legitimacy and accounta- Brazil $4.5 billion. Others made less firm commitments. bility to its members are critical for the IMF to fulfil its China, for instance, was said to be willing to buy $50 billion mandate effectively. Enlarging the emerging-market repre- in bonds issued by the IMF. Beijing’s willingness to consider sentation is fundamental in terms of reflecting structural contributing to the IMF liquidity is a significant follow-up changes in the international economic order. from the London Summit – thanks to a thorough prepara- The G20 leaders stressed governance reform as a tion in the weeks before the meeting. Back in November, medium-term goal and made a commitment to accelerate China had made it clear that supporting its domestic reform of country representation to early 2011. At the economy was its most pressing policy priority and it had IMF Spring Meetings, the International Monetary and responded to mounting international pressure to Financial Committee urged a prompt start to the four- contribute funds to the IMF’s liquidity by stating unequivo- teenth general review of IMF quotas to ensure completion cally its unwillingness to comply with such a request. by January 2011, stressing that NAB ‘is not a substitute for However, the amount of funds so far raised is only a quota increase’.14 On the same occasion, the ministers in half the total that the G20 leaders indicated as necessary the 15-member African Consultative Group stressed the to provide appropriate assistance to countries in finan- need to accelerate reforms of governance to amplify cial need. Even though the US has now confirmed its Africa’s voice within the IMF. offer of $100 billion, it is not clear where the rest will 13 An overhaul of the Executive Board with a view to come from as no other country has so far signalled the improving the representation of developing countries intention of providing significant funding. implies reassessing the European representation so as to reflect the economic weight not just of Germany, Governance and representation France and the UK but of the EU as a whole. This might In terms of the second of the two objectives that were set up eventually lead to the collapsing of the three European at the Washington Summit – the governance of the inter- seats – Germany, France and the UK – into a single EU national financial institutions – not much was achieved in seat.15 If the EU were to combine into a single London besides the broad agreement, confirmed in the constituency with a reduced combined quota of votes, final communiqué, ‘to reform and modernise the interna- that would also release a very significant quota for tional financial institutions to ensure they can assist realignment, as well as giving the Europeans much members and shareholders effectively in the new chal- more concentrated weight. An EU constituency would lenges they face’. The G20 leaders insisted that ‘emerging have a veto, giving it real voting power.16 13 'US Congress Vote Marks Big Step for IMF Reform, Funding', IMF Survey online, 18 June 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/NEW061809A.htm. 14 ‘Communiqué of the International Monetary and Financial Committee of the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund’, IMF Press Release No. 09/139, 25 April 2009, http://www.imf.org/external/np/cm/2009/042509.htm. 15 New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders, Chatham House and Atlantic Council Report, London, April 2009. 16 Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, ‘A Single EU Seat in the IMF?’, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 42, No. 2 (2004), pp. 229–48. www.chathamhouse.org.uk www.cigionline.org
  • 7. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 7 With all the key players gathered together, including concretely achieve. The agenda was undoubtedly ambi- the US which, de facto, holds a veto under the current tious, stretching from short-term stabilization of IMF voting procedure, the Italian Presidency should seize financial markets and lifting the real economy out of this opportunity to initiate the dialogue and assess the recession to the reform of the international financial and concrete steps that are needed to move towards consoli- monetary architecture. In the run-up to the Summit, dated representation of European countries on the IMF however, diplomatic efforts intensified to enable agree- executive board. Discussing the EU representation within ment to be reached on some key issues. As a result, the the IMF is politically difficult, but it cannot be avoided for G20 leaders delivered on some bare essentials and set up much longer. Europe should show leadership and be the a number of building blocks for future talks. ‘first mover’, rather than be eventually forced to confront As discussed above, the London Summit’s main accom- the question of IMF governance. In this respect it would plishments relate to future crisis prevention, especially in be easier for the Italians to raise the issue, given that Italy terms of strengthening international financial regulation, does not have a seat on the IMF’s board. What is at stake the FSB and the IMF. Over and above this, the Summit did is Europe’s relevance at the international level – espe- much to restore confidence as the G20 leaders showed cially critical in view of the increasingly intense US–China some commitment to international policy coordination dialogue. Europe’s ‘big four’ therefore have a responsi- and multilateralism. Some of these points were turned bility as well as the interest to bring up such a dialogue into concrete action. As noted, the pledge to enhance the and move it forward. In this respect, the L’Aquila Summit IMF’s lending facilities through bilateral borrowing in provides the best opportunity to bridge the policy gap order to aid countries in need of financial assistance has between the G20 and the G8, and to give some teeth – and already provided assistance to Mexico, Poland and relevance – to the latter. Colombia. Similarly, on the regulatory framework some important new proposals emerged, particularly regarding Conclusion: towards L’Aquila hedge funds, compensation schemes and tax havens. The London Summit was preceded by a combination of Some of these questions, however, though resonating well high expectations and scepticism as to what it could with public opinion, are not critical in crisis resolution. Recommendations The Italian Presidency should use its G8 chair to initiate the dialogue on the reconfiguration of the number of seats and votes in the IMF to better reflect the economic and political realities of the 21st century. This should involve discussing and assessing a number of options for reform of the European representation, including an overhaul of the Executive Board and collapsing the European seats – Germany, France and the UK – into a single EU seat. G8 leaders should make clear their support for the development of further mechanisms that enable non-FSB countries, particularly low-income ones, to have their voices heard in international financial regulatory discussions. The G8 should spell out and reach agreement on how to implement coordinated macroeconomic policy responses particularly vis-à-vis global imbalances. In addition, the impact of bailout plans and stimulus packages on neighbouring economies and trading partners should be monitored and mitigated. The G8 Summit should demonstrate political will by developing some concrete proposals for the reform of the IMF’s surveillance role. The G8 should maintain the political momentum behind London Summit measures on strengthening international regulations relating to bond rating agencies, compensation issues involving significant financial institutions, derivatives, tax havens and hedge funds, and re-emphasize the importance of their implementation. The G8 summit should address the question of what action is still necessary for the financial sector to clean banks’ balance sheets. It should also help accelerate the discussion on whether systematically important institutions should be subject to higher standards or restricted from certain high-risk activities. www.cigionline.org www.chathamhouse.org.uk
  • 8. From London to L’Aquila: Building a Bridge between the G20 and the G8 page 8 Immediate action still required for the financial sector Chatham House has been the home of the Royal entails cleaning banks’ balance sheets. Institute of International Affairs for over eight decades. Relative to the G20’s Washington meeting, the London Our mission is to be a world-leading source of Summit undoubtedly achieved a considerable amount. independent analysis, informed debate and influential But beyond any concrete achievement, its success is that it ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure morphed into an ongoing process with a rolling agenda, world for all. rather than remaining a one-off event. Because of the complexity of the agenda and the intri- The Centre for International Governance Innovation cacies of dealing with so many players around the table, (CIGI) is an independent, nonpartisan think tank that several issues were rolled over to the next meeting – or addresses international governance challenges. were simply left out. Some will be on the agenda of the Conducting an active agenda of research, events, and next G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in September. Others can publications, CIGI’s interdisciplinary work includes be picked up at the forthcoming G8 Summit. Even though collaboration with policy, business and academic the G8 agenda is much broader and includes a wider communities around the world. variety of issues – such as development, security, Africa or climate change – there is an urgent need to continue to Paola Subacchi is Research Director, International push for progress on the London Summit issues, particu- Economics at Chatham House. larly since it seems that many G20 members have gone off and ‘done their own thing’ since April. Moreover, some Eric Helleiner is CIGI Chair in International matters may well benefit from discussion in the more Governance and Professor, Balsillie School of ‘intimate’ G8 setting. International Affairs, University of Waterloo, Canada. It is now up to the Italian Presidency of the G8 to put some of these issues on the agenda for the L’Aquila The paper has greatly benefited from comments from Andrew Baker, Summit. Particularly relevant is the question of the Gregory Chin, Andrew F. Cooper, Paolo Guerrieri, Robin Niblett, European representation in the IMF. The London Fabrizio Pagani, Stefano Pagliari, Lauren Phillips, Barbara Ridpath, Jim Rollo, Susan Schadler and Andrew Schrumm, and from participants to Summit was unable – and unwilling – to address the the seminars ‘Dal G8 al G20: ripensare la global governance’, Rome, question of the governance of the IMF, leaving the reform 21 May 2009, and ‘Global Governance for Global Markets: Moving of quotas and voting rights to 2011. However, this dead- Beyond the G8’, Berlin, 17 June 2009. The authors thank Ruth Davis for research assistance and Margaret May for editorial supervision. line is too far away for what is increasingly regarded as an urgent issue. The Italian Presidency has an opportunity Chatham House to send a strong signal and initiate the dialogue on 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE reform of the European quota within the IMF, and should www.chathamhouse.org.uk promote the idea of a single EU constituency. Most of all, Registered charity no: 208223 it should seize the opportunity to link major economic Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs) is an discussions between the G8 leaders and key partners independent body which promotes the rigorous study of among developing countries, indicating that action is international questions and does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of needed in the short term and ensuring clarity for the G20 the authors. agenda for Pittsburgh in September. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2009 This material is offered free of charge for personal and non-commercial use, provided the source is acknowledged. This paper is part of a joint research project between For commercial or any other use, prior written permission must be obtained from the Royal Institute of International Affairs. In no Chatham House, CIGI and the Istituto Affari case may this material be altered, sold or rented. Internazionali (IAI) in Rome, Italy. Designed and typeset by SoapBox, www.soapboxcommunications.co.uk Printed on paper from sustainably managed sources. www.chathamhouse.org.uk www.cigionline.org