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Project Report On 
PROFITABILITY OF BANKS IN INDIA 
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the 
degree of 
BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS 
By 
Akanksha Garg(Roll No. 2531) 
Archit Aggarwal (Roll No. 2524) 
Pulkit Vig (Roll No. 2557) 
Shivani Baghel (Roll No.2534) 
Siddhant Kapur (Roll No. 2533) 
Tanuj Mendiratta (Roll No.2569) 
Supervisor : Mr. Abhishek Kumar 
Assistant Professor 
(University Of Delhi)
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DECLARATION 
I hereby declare that the project work entitled “Profitability of Banks” submitted to 
the University of Delhi, is a record of an original work done by us under the 
guidance of Mr. Abhishek Kumar, Ram Lal Anand College(E) , and this project 
work has not been partially or fully copied from any other project (diploma and 
degree course). Also due credit has been provided to all sources from which the 
data has been taken. 
Akanksha Garg(Roll No. 2531) 
Archit Aggarwal (Roll No. 2524) Supervisor : 
Pulkit Vig (Roll No. 2557) Abhishek Kumar 
Shivani Baghel (Roll No.2534) (Assistant Professor) 
Siddhant Kapur (Roll No. 2533) (University Of Delhi) 
Tanuj Mendiratta (Roll No.2569
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 
This is to acknowledge the efforts of one and all to make this project success. Thanks to 
everyone for their patience, hard work and sincerity, we are able to complete this project 
effectively. 
We are equally grateful to our mentor Mr. Abhishek Kumar for his consistent guidance, 
encouragement and support during the development of this work. 
We also want to thank Ms. Aastha, Coordinator, BA(H) Business Economics for extending her 
support. We are also grateful to our Institution and our faculty members without whom this 
project would have been a distant reality. 
Also, We would like to express our eternal gratitude to our parents for their everlasting love and 
support. 
Thanking you 
AKANKSHA GARG(Roll No. 2531) 
ARCHIT AGGARWAL(Roll No. 2524) 
PULKIT VIG(Roll No. 2557) 
SHIVANI BAGHEL(Roll No.2534) 
SIDDHANT KAPUR(Roll No. 2533) 
TANUJ MENDIRATTA (Roll No.2569)
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INDEX 
TOPIC PAGE NO. 
Introduction 5 
Literature Review 15 
Database And Methodology 18 
Regression Analysis 23 
Conclusion 38 
Bibliography 39
1.INTRODUCTION 
A Bank is a financial institution and a financial intermediary that accepts deposits and channels 
those deposits into lending activities, either directly by loaning or indirectly through capital 
markets. A bank links together customers that have capital deficits and customers with capital 
surpluses. Due to their influential status within the financial system and upon 
national economies, banks are highly regulated in most countries. They play a very crucial role 
in shaping a country's economical and social background and hence act as an active agent in 
determining their growth perspectives. 
In this paper , we aim to analyze what determines the profitability of banks in India.. A dataset of 
five years, from fiscal year 2008 to 2013 has been taken into consideration to analyze the various 
aspects of bank profitability. 77 banks operational in India have been analyzed and interpreted on 
various parameters like Net Spread, Cash Deposit Ratio, Cash and Reserves etc. The study has 
been conducted with the help of various statistical and econometric tools of regression. 
Banking in India originated in the last decades of the 18th century. The first banks were The 
General Bank of India, which started in 1786, and Bank of Hindustan, which started in 1770; 
both are now defunct. The oldest bank in existence in India is the State Bank of India, which 
originated in the Bank of Calcutta in June 1806, which almost immediately became the Bank of 
Bengal. This was one of the three presidency banks, the other two being the Bank of 
Bombay and the Bank of Madras, all three of which were established under charters from the 
British East India Company. For many years the Presidency banks acted as quasi-central banks, 
as did their successors. The three banks merged in 1921 to form the Imperial Bank of India, 
which, upon India's independence, became the State Bank of India in 1955. 
Banking occupies one of the most important positions in the modern economic world. It is 
necessary for trade and industry. Hence it is one of the great agencies of commerce. Although 
banking in one form or another has been in existence from very early times, modern banking is 
of recent origin. It is one of the results of the Industrial Revolution and the child of economic 
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necessity. Its presence is very helpful to the economic activity and industrial progress of a 
country. 
Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1991-92, the banking sector in India has seen 
numerous developments and policy changes. The more important reforms initiated in the 
banking sector includes adoption of prudential norms in terms of capital adequacy, assets 
classification and provisioning, deregulation of interest rates, lowering of Statutory Liquidity 
Ratio (SLR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), opening of the sector to private participation, 
permission to foreign banks to expand their operations through subsidiaries, the introduction of 
Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and liberalization of FDI norms. The main thrust of the 
banking sector reforms has been the creation of efficient and stable financial institutions and 
development of the banking industry. The reforms have been undertaken gradually with mutual 
consent and wider debate amongst the participants and in a sequential pattern that is reinforcing 
to the overall economy. 
Banking sectors reforms have changed the face of INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY. The 
reforms have led to the increase in resource productivity, increasing level of deposits, credits and 
profitability and decrease in non-performing assets. However, the profitability, which is an 
important criteria to measure the performance of banks in addition to productivity, financial and 
operational efficiency, has come under pressure because of changing environment of banking. 
An efficient management of banking operations aimed at ensuring growth in profits and 
efficiency requires up-to-date knowledge of all those factors on which the banks profit depends. 
History 
Merchants in Calcutta established the Union Bank in 1839, but it failed in 1840 as a consequence 
of the economic crisis of 1848-49. The Allahabad Bank, established in 1865 and still functioning 
today, is the oldest Joint Stock bank in India.(Joint Stock Bank: A company that issues stock 
and requires shareholders to be held liable for the company's debt) It was not the first though. 
That honor belongs to the Bank of Upper India, which was established in 1863, and which 
survived until 1913, when it failed, with some of its assets and liabilities being transferred to 
the Alliance Bank of Simla. 
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Foreign banks too started to app, particularly in Calcutta, in the 1860s. The Comptoir d'Escompte 
de Paris opened a branch in Calcutta in 1860, and another in Bombay in 1862; branches 
in Madras and Pondicherry, then a French colony, followed. HSBC established itself 
in Bengal in 1869. Calcutta was the most active trading port in India, mainly due to the trade of 
the British Empire, and so became a banking center. 
The first entirely Indian joint stock bank was the Oudh Commercial Bank, established in 1881 
in Faizabad. It failed in 1958. The next was the Punjab National Bank, established in Lahore in 
1895, which has survived to the present and is now one of the largest banks in India. 
Around the turn of the 20th Century, the Indian economy was passing through a relative period 
of stability. Around five decades had elapsed since the Indian Mutiny, and the social, industrial 
and other infrastructure had improved. Indians had established small banks, most of which 
served particular ethnic and religious communities. 
The presidency banks dominated banking in India but there were also some exchange banks and 
a number of Indian joint stock banks. All these banks operated in different segments of the 
economy. The exchange banks, mostly owned by Europeans, concentrated on financing foreign 
trade. Indian joint stock banks were generally under capitalized and lacked the experience and 
maturity to compete with the presidency and exchange banks. This segmentation let Lord Curzon 
to observe, "In respect of banking it seems we are behind the times. We are like some old 
fashioned sailing ship, divided by solid wooden bulkheads into separate and cumbersome 
compartments." 
The period between 1906 and 1911, saw the establishment of banks inspired by 
the Swadeshi movement. The Swadeshi movement inspired local businessmen and political 
figures to found banks of and for the Indian community. A number of banks established then 
have survived to the present such as Bank of India, Corporation Bank, Indian Bank, Bank of 
Baroda, Canara Bank and Central Bank of India. 
The fervor of Swadeshi movement lead to establishing of many private banks in Dakshina 
Kannada and Udupi district which were unified earlier and known by the name South Canara ( 
South Kanara ) district. Four nationalized banks started in this district and also a leading private 
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sector bank. Hence undivided Dakshina Kannada district is known as "Cradle of Indian 
Banking". 
During the First World War (1914–1918) through the end of the Second World War (1939– 
1945), and two years thereafter until the independence of India were challenging for Indian 
banking. The years of the First World War were turbulent, and it took its toll with banks simply 
collapsing despite the Indian economy gaining indirect boost due to war-related economic 
activities. At least 94 banks in India failed between 1913 and 1918 as indicated in the following 
table: 
YEARS NUMBERS OF 
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BANK THAT 
FAILED 
AUTHORISED 
CAPITAL (Rs. Lacs) 
PAID-UP CAPITAL 
(Rs. Lacs) 
1913 12 274 35 
1914 42 710 109 
1915 11 56 5 
1916 13 231 4 
1917 9 76 25 
1918 7 209 1
Post-Independence 
The partition of India in 1947 adversely impacted the economies of Punjab and West Bengal, 
paralyzing banking activities for months. India's independence marked the end of a regime of 
the Laissez-faire for the Indian banking. The Government of India initiated measures to play an 
active role in the economic life of the nation, and the Industrial Policy Resolution adopted by the 
government in 1948 envisaged a mixed economy. This resulted into greater involvement of the 
state in different segments of the economy including banking and finance. The major steps to 
regulate banking included 
 'The Reserve Bank of India, India's central banking authority, was established in April 
1935, but was nationalized on January 1, 1949 under the terms of the Reserve Bank of 
India (Transfer to Public Ownership) Act, 1948 (RBI, 2005b).[1] 
 In 1949, the Banking Regulation Act was enacted which empowered the Reserve Bank of 
India (RBI) "to regulate, control, and inspect the banks in India". 
 The Banking Regulation Act also provided that no new bank or branch of an existing 
bank could be opened without a license from the RBI, and no two banks could have 
common directors. 
Nationalization 
Despite the provisions, control and regulations of Reserve Bank of India, banks in India except 
the State Bank of India or SBI, continued to be owned and operated by private persons. By the 
1960s, the Indian banking industry had become an important tool to facilitate the development of 
the Indian economy. At the same time, it had emerged as a large employer, and a debate had 
ensued about the nationalization of the banking industry. Indira Gandhi, then Prime Minister of 
India, expressed the intention of the Government of India in the annual conference of the All 
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India Congress Meeting in a paper entitled "Stray thoughts on Bank Nationalisation." [2] The 
meeting received the paper with enthusiasm. 
Thereafter, her move was swift and sudden. The Government of India issued an ordinance 
('Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Ordinance, 1969')) 
and nationalised the 14 largest commercial banks with effect from the midnight of July 19, 1969. 
These banks contained 85 percent of bank deposits in the country.[2]Jayaprakash Narayan, a 
national leader of India, described the step as a "masterstroke of political sagacity." Within two 
weeks of the issue of the ordinance, the Parliament passed the Banking Companies (Acquisition 
and Transfer of Undertaking) Bill, and it received the presidential approval on 9 August 1969. 
A second dose of nationalization of 6 more commercial banks followed in 1980. The stated 
reason for the nationalization was to give the government more control of credit delivery. With 
the second dose of nationalization, the Government of India controlled around 91% of the 
banking business of India. Later on, in the year 1993, the government merged New Bank of 
India with Punjab National Bank. It was the only merger between nationalized banks and 
resulted in the reduction of the number of nationalised banks from 20 to 19. After this, until the 
1990s, the nationalised banks grew at a pace of around 4%, closer to the average growth rate of 
the Indian economy. 
Liberalization 
In the early 1990s, the then Narasimha Rao government embarked on a policy of liberalization, 
licensing a small number of private banks. These came to be known as New Generation tech-savvy 
banks, and included Global Trust Bank (the first of such new generation banks to be set 
up), which later amalgamated with Oriental Bank of Commerce, UTI Bank (since renamed Axis 
Bank), ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. This move, along with the rapid growth in the economy of 
India, revitalized the banking sector in India, which has seen rapid growth with strong 
contribution from all the three sectors of banks, namely, government banks, private banks and 
foreign banks. 
The next stage for the Indian banking has been set up with the proposed relaxation in the norms 
for Foreign Direct Investment, where all Foreign Investors in banks may be given voting rights 
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which could exceed the present cap of 10%,at present it has gone up to 74% with some 
restrictions. The new policy shook the Banking sector in India completely. Bankers, till this time, 
were used to the 4-6-4 method (Borrow at 4%;Lend at 6%;Go home at 4) of functioning. The 
new wave ushered in a modern outlook and tech-savvy methods of working for traditional banks. 
All this led to the retail boom in India. People not just demanded more from their banks but also 
received more. 
Current Scenario 
By 2013 , banking in India was generally fairly mature in terms of supply, product range and 
reach-even though reach in rural India still remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign 
banks. In terms of quality of assets and capital adequacy, Indian banks are considered to have 
clean, strong and transparent balance sheets relative to other banks in comparable economies in 
its region. The Reserve Bank of India is an autonomous body, with minimal pressure from the 
government. The stated policy of the Bank on the Indian Rupee is to manage volatility but 
without any fixed exchange rate-and this has mostly been true. 
With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some time-especially in 
its services sector-the demand for banking services, especially retail banking, mortgages and 
investment services are expected to be strong. One may also expect M&As, takeovers, and asset 
sales. 
In March 2006, the Reserve Bank of India allowed Warburg Pincus to increase its stake in Kotak 
Mahindra Bank (a private sector bank) to 10%. This is the first time an investor has been allowed 
to hold more than 5% in a private sector bank since the RBI announced norms in 2005 that any 
stake exceeding 5% in the private sector banks would need to be vetted by them. 
In recent years critics have charged that the non-government owned banks are too aggressive in 
their loan recovery efforts in connexion with housing, vehicle and personal loans. There are press 
reports that the banks' loan recovery efforts have driven defaulting borrowers to suicide. 
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Adoption Of Banking Technology 
The IT revolution had a great impact in the Indian banking system. The use of computers had led 
to introduction of online banking in India. The use of the modern innovation and computerisation 
of the banking sector of India has increased many fold after the economic liberalisation of 1991 
as the country's banking sector has been exposed to the world's market. The Indian banks were 
finding it difficult to compete with the international banks in terms of the customer service 
without the use of the information technology and computers. 
Number of branches of scheduled banks of India as of March 2005 
The RBI in 1984 formed Committee on Mechanisation in the Banking Industry (1984) whose 
chairman was Dr C Rangarajan, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India. The major 
recommendations of this committee was introducing MICR Technology in all the banks in the 
metropolis in India.This provided use of standardized cheque forms and encoders. 
In 1988, the RBI set up Committee on Computerisation in Banks (1988) headed by Dr. C.R. 
Rangarajan which emphasized that settlement operation must be computerized in the clearing 
houses of RBI in Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Jaipur, Patna and Thiruvananthapuram.It further 
stated that there should be National Clearing of inter-city cheques at 
Kolkata,Mumbai,Delhi,Chennai and MICR should be made Operational.It also focused on 
computerisation of branches and increasing connectivity among branches through computers. It 
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also suggested modalities for implementing on-line banking. The committee submitted its reports 
in 1989 and computerisation began form 1993 with the settlement between IBA and bank 
employees' association. 
In 1994, Committee on Technology Issues relating to Payments System, Cheque Clearing and 
Securities Settlement in the Banking Industry (1994) was set up with chairman Shri WS Saraf, 
Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India. It emphasized on Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) 
system, with the BANKNET communications network as its carrier. It also said that MICR 
clearing should be set up in all branches of all banks with more than 100 branches. 
Committee for proposing Legislation On Electronic Funds Transfer and other Electronic 
Payments (1995) emphasized on EFT system. Electronic banking refers to DOING BANKING 
by using technologies like computers, internet and networking, MICR,EFT so as to increase 
efficiency, quick service, productivity and transparency in the transaction. 
Number of ATMs of different Scheduled Commercial Banks Of India as on end March 2005 
Apart from the above mentioned innovations the banks have been selling the third party products 
like Mutual Funds, insurances to its clients. Total numbers of ATMs installed in India by various 
banks as on end March 2005 is 17,642. The New Private Sector Banks in India is having the 
largest numbers of ATMs which is fol off site ATM is highest for the SBI and its subsidiaries 
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and then it is followed by New Private Banks, Nationalised banks and Foreign banks. While on 
site is highest for the Nationalised banks of India. 
BANK GROUP NUMBER OF 
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BRANCHES 
ON SITE 
ATM 
OFF SITE 
ATM 
TOTAL 
ATM 
NATIONALISED BANKS 33627 3205 1567 4772 
STATE BANK OF INDIA 13661 1548 3672 5220 
OLD PRIVATE SECTOR 
BANKS 
4511 800 441 1241 
NEW PRIVATE SECTOR 
BANKS 
1685 1883 3729 
5612 
FOREIGN BANKS 242 218 579 797 
Since the initiation of economic reforms, the banking sector in India has seen numerous 
developments and policy changes. The more important reforms initiated in the banking sector 
includes adoption of prudential norms in terms of capital adequacy, assets classification and 
provisioning, deregulation of interest rates, lowering of SLR and CRR, opening of the sector to 
private participation, permission to foreign banks to expand their operations through subsidiaries, 
the introduction of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and liberalization of FDI norms. The 
main thrust of the banking sector reforms has been the creation of efficient and stable financial 
institutions and development of the banking industry. The reforms have been undertaken 
gradually with mutual consent and wider debate amongst the participants and in a sequential 
pattern that is reinforcing to the overall economy. 
In the project of ours we are concentrating on the parameters such as Spread, Non Interest 
Income, Credit/Deposit Ratio, NPA as a percentage to Net Advances, BPE(Business per 
Employee), PPE(Profit per Employee), Cash and Reserve, Operating Expense and Return on 
Assets.
2.LITERATURE REVIEW 
A lot of research work has so far taken place concerning the views about the role of financial and 
banking development in economic growth [McKinnon (1973); Shaw (1973); Rajan and Zingales 
(1998); Levine (2004); Singh (2005)].Similarly some studies have been undertaken for 
measuring the productivity and operational efficiency of banks in India. More recent among 
them includes- Cheema and Agarwal (2002), Ketkar, Noulas and Agarwal (2003), Singh (2003). 
Insofar as our information is concerned, however, very scanty work has been done with the 
objective of identifying the determinants of profitability of banks in India. The recent studies of 
Chandan and Rajput (2002) and Saggar (2005) have examined the factors determining 
profitability of banks in India. Therefore, the onus of conducting more research studies lies on 
the researchers so as to identify the determinants of profitability of banks. It is in this context that 
the present study titled-‘.Indian Banking Industry’: A Multivariate Analysis. has been performed. 
Some of these studies have been mentioned : 
McKinnon (1973) 
McKinnon’s (1973) complementary hypothesis predicts that money and investment are 
complementary due to a self-financed investment, and that a real deposit rate is the key 
determinant of capital formation for financially constrained developing economies. 
Shaw (1973): 
The paper attempts to demonstrate the problematic nature of `market liberalisation' by 
concentrating in an area where renewed interest has resurfaced, this being financial markets. 
More precisely, the focus of this contribution will be on the setting of financial prices by central 
banks, especially in developing countries, a fairly common practice in the 1950s and 1960. The 
paper ascribed the poor performance of investment and growth in developing countries to 
interest rate ceilings, high reserve requirements and quantitative restrictions in the credit 
allocation mechanism. These restrictions were sources of `financial repression', the main 
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symptoms of which were low savings, credit rationing and low investment. They propounded 
instead the thesis which has come to be known as `financial liberalisation', which can be 
succinctly summarised as amounting to ‘freeing’ financial markets from any intervention and 
letting the market determine the allocation of credit. 
Rajan and Zingales (1998): 
The paper examines whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing 
one rationale for such a relationship: that financial development reduces the costs of external 
finance to firms. Specifically, the authors ask whether industrial sectors that are relatively more 
in need of external finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more-developed 
financial markets. They find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. The 
authors show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse 
causality. Copyright 1998 by American Economic Association. 
Ketkar, Noulas and Agarwal (2003): 
The paper seeks to determine the impact of various market and regulatory initiatives on 
efficiency improvements and profitability of Indian banks since the implementation of financial 
sector reforms following the recommendations of the Narasimham Committee in1992 and 1997. 
The reform process has shifted the focus of public sector dominated banking system from social 
banking to a more efficient and profit oriented industry. While the reform process has resulted in 
the private sector replacing the government as the source of resources for public sector banks 
(PSBs), the infusion of private equity capital has led to shareholders challenges to bureaucratic 
decision making. PSBs also face increasing competition not only from private and foreign 
banks but also from growing non- banking financial intermediaries like mutual funds and other 
capital market entities. The competitive pressures to improve efficiency in the banking sector 
has resulted in a switch from traditional paper based banking to electronic banking, use 
information technology and shift of emphasis from brick and mortar banking to use of ATMs. 
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Levine (2004): 
This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections 
between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample 
qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both 
financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not 
driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial 
systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism 
through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many 
areas needing additional research. 
H. Semih Yildirim & George C. Philippatos (2007) 
Efficiency of Banks: Recent Evidence from the Transition Economies of Europe, 1993–2000. 
This study examines the cost and profit efficiency of banking sectors in twelve transition 
economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 1993–2000, using the stochastic 
frontier approach (SFA) and the distribution- free approach (DFA). The managerial inefficiencies 
in CEE banking markets were found to be significant, with average cost efficiency level for 12 
countries of 72% and 77% by the DFA and the SFA, respectively. The alternative 
profit efficiency levels are found to be significantly lower relative to cost efficiency. According 
to the SFA, approximately one-third of banks' profit are lost to inefficiency, and almost one-half 
according to the DFA. The results of the second-stage regression analyses suggest that higher 
efficiency levels are associated with large and well-capitalized banks . The degree of competition 
has a positive influence on cost efficiency and a negative one on profit efficiency, while market 
concentration is negatively linked to efficiency. Finally, foreign banks are found to be more cost 
efficient but less profit efficient relative to domestically owned private banks and state-owned 
banks. 
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3. DATABASE AND METHODOLOGY 
The Indian financial system comprises an impressive network of Nationalized Banks, 
Commercial Banks CBs), Co-operative banks (CPB), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) 
and Non-banking Finance Companies (NBFCs). The commercial banks comprise public sector, 
private sector and foreign sector banks. Though the number of foreign and private banks 
operating in India has increased from 21 and 23 in 1991 to 33 and 30, respectively in 2004, the 
public sector banks dominate the banking industry in terms of branch expansion, market share in 
deposits and lending etc. Accordingly, the scope of the present study is limited to Nationalized , 
Foreign , Public and Private Sector Banks operating in India. We have considered the data for 77 
banks currently operating in India : Nationalized, Public sector, private sector and foreign banks. 
The dataset covers a period of fiver years, 2008-2013. 
The variables considered for the present study include Spread (S), Non-Interest Income (NII), 
Credit Deposit Ratio, Cash and Reserve, Business per employee, Office, Operating Expenses, 
Profit Per Employee and Returns on Equity. 
The data relating to these variables have been collected from the Reserve Bank of India. Bulletin 
and Internet ( www.rbi.org.in) 
The variables used are explained as: 
Cash And Reserves: Bank reserves are banks' holdings of deposits in accounts with 
their central bank (for instance the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve, in the latter 
case including federal funds), plus currency that is physically held in the bank's vault (vault 
cash). The central banks of some nations set minimum reserve requirements. Even when no 
requirements are set, banks commonly wish to hold some reserves, called desired reserves, 
against unexpected events such as unusually large net withdrawals by customers or even bank 
runs. 
 Reserves on deposit – deposit accounts at the central bank, owned by banks. 
 Vault cash – reserves held as cash in bank vaults rather than being on deposit at the central 
bank. 
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 Borrowed reserves – bank reserves that were obtained by borrowing from the central bank. 
 Non-borrowed reserves – bank reserves that were not obtained by borrowing from the 
central bank. 
 Required reserves – the amount of reserves that banks are required to hold, determined by 
the central bank as a function of a bank's deposit liabilities. 
 Excess reserves - bank reserves in excess of the reserve requirement. A portion of excess 
reserves (or even all of them) may be desired reserves. 
 Free reserves - the amount by which excess reserves exceed borrowed reserves. 
Total reserves – all bank reserves: vault cash plus reserves on deposit at the central bank, also 
borrowed plus non-borrowed, also required plus excess. 
Non Interest Income: Bank and creditor income derived primarily from fees. Examples 
of non-interest income include deposit and transaction fees, insufficient funds (NSF) fees, annual 
fees, monthly account service charges, inactivity fees, check and deposit slip fees, 
etc. Institutions charge fees that provide non-interest income as a way of generating revenue and 
ensuring liquidity in the event of increased default rates. 
Non-interest income makes up a significant portion of most banks' and credit card companies’ 
revenue. In 2008 alone, credit card issuers took in over $19 billion in penalty-fee income alone – 
this includes late fees and over-the-limit fees, among others. The passage of the Credit Card 
Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009 included sweeping 
restrictions on credit card companies’ ability to generate non-interest income 
Profits per Employee / Net Income per Employee: Profits per Employee 
(Net Income per Employee) = net income / number of employees. This ratio indicate the average 
profit generated per person employed. 
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The profits per employee (or net income per employee) ratio is included in the financial 
statement ratio analysis spreadsheets highlighted in the left column, which provide formulas, 
definitions, calculation, charts and explanations of each ratio. The profits per employee ratio is 
listed in our net income ratios. 
Net Spread: Net spread refers to the difference in borrowing and lending rates of financial 
institutions (such as banks) in nominal terms. It is considered analogous to the gross margin of 
non-financial companies. Net spread is 
expressed as interest yield on earning assets (any asset, such as a loan, that generates interest 
income) minus interest rates paid on borrowed funds. Net spread is similar to net interest margin; 
net interest spread expresses the nominal average difference between borrowing and lending 
rates, without compensating for the fact that the amount of earning assets and borrowed funds 
may be different. Spread = Total Interest 
Income - Total Interest Expended 
Return On Equity: It is the ratio relating net profit (net income) to shareholder's equity. 
Here, shareholder's equity refers to share capital reserve and surplus of bank. 
Formula = Profit after tax/ Total Equity + Total Equity at the end of previous year) / 2)*100 
Cash Deposit Ratio: Cash deposit Ratio is the ratio between the sum of liquid cash in 
hand and the amount of balance kept with Reserve Bank Of India and the deposits held. 
Cash-deposit ratio = (Cash in hand + Balances with RBI) / Deposits 
Operating Expense: Operating expenses are the expenses incurred in conducting the 
bank’s ongoing operations. An important component of a bank’s operating expenses is the 
interest payments that it must make on its liabilities, particularly on its deposits.Just as interest 
income varies with the level of interest rates, so do interest expenses. Non - interest expense 
consists of salaries for employees, expense on premises and equipment, rent on bank buildings, 
servicing costs. Operating expenses also accounts for loss in loans. 
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Business Per Employee: This ratio is most useful when compared against other 
companies in the same industry. Ideally, a company wants the highest revenue per employee 
possible, as it denotes higher productivity. It is calculated as: Revenue/ No. Of employee . 
Non Performing Assets: A Non-performing asset (NPA) is defined as a credit facility in 
respect of which the interest and/or installment of principal has remained ‘past due’ for a 
specified period of time. NPA is a classification used by financial institutions that refer to loans 
that are in jeopardy of default. Once the borrower has failed to make interest or principal 
payments for 90 days the loan is considered to be a non-performing asset. Non-performing assets 
are problematic for financial institutions since they depend on interest payments for income. 
Troublesome pressure from the economy can lead to a sharp increase in non-performing 
loans and often results in massive write-downs. 
Typically we have three types of data sets which we use in economics: 
1) Time series – This is the most common form of data that we use and they are quite easily 
accessible. You can see time series data in the Taiwan Statistical Databook, Central Banks 
websites and publications, the Economic Report of the President, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 
the Census Bureau, the Asian Development Bank and at websites like economagic.com and the 
Directorate of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). Time series regression must face the 
formidable problems of autocorrelation and structural change. 
2) Cross Section – This is data usually observed over geographic or demographic groups. A 
regression, which uses these cross section data sets, is called a cross sectional regression. Cross 
sectional regressions usually suffer from the problem of heteroskedasticity. Moreover, they are 
really only true for a moment in time and therefore there is always the lingering question of 
whether they can adequately represent the unchanging structure we are researching. 
21 | P a g e
3) Panel Data – This type combines the first two types. Here we have a cross section, but we 
observe the cross section over time. If the same people or states or counties, sampled in the cross 
section, are then re-sampled at a different time we call this a longitudinal data set, which is a very 
valuable type of panel data set. Longitudinal data sets are very common in medical and 
biostatistical studies. Panel data sets are becoming more and more popular due to the widespread 
use of the computer making it easy to organize and produce such data. 
Comprehending from the description above , we understand that the data considered for 77 banks 
across five years from 2008 to 2013 is a panel data. However, to work competently for panel 
data , we need data set for a longer period of time. Having only a dataset for five years restrains 
us from studying and analyzing Panel Data regression in detail. The advanced complexities of 
panel data are again a barrier to it. 
Therefore, we have used both regression models in our study , namely 
The Multiple Regression Model : Pooled Regression Model 
and , The Fixed Effect Model for analyzing the panel data 
using Bank Dummies 
and Time Dummies 
22 | P a g e
4.REGRESSION ANALYSIS 
 The Multiple Regression Model 
Multiple linear regression is a generalization of linear regression by considering more than one 
independent variable, and a specific case of general linear models formed by restricting the 
number of dependent variables to one. The general linear model incorporates a number of 
different statistical models: ANOVA, ANCOVA, MANOVA, MANCOVA, ordinary linear 
regression, t-test and F-test. 
In multivariate tests the columns of Y are tested together, whereas in univariate tests the columns 
of Y are tested independently, i.e., as multiple univariate tests with the same design matrix. 
The multiple regression model is given by; 
23 | P a g e 
풚 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ 풙ퟏ + 휷ퟐ풙ퟐ + 휷ퟑ풙ퟑ … + 휷풏풙풏 
Where, 
α – Intercept 
β – Slope Coefficient (rate of change of y with respect to x ,keeping all other things constant) 
x – Independent variable 
y – Dependent variable 
Here β is known as the partial regression coefficient. 
The multiple regression model is applied considering profitability as the dependent variable and 
all other variables as independent variables.
24 | P a g e 
Model 1: Pooled Regression Model 
Pooled Regression is usually carried out on Time-Series Cross-Sectional data- data that has 
observations over time for several different units or ‘cross-sections’. Pooled regression works 
similar to regular regression, except an extra intercept or ‘dummy’ is added for each store. It is 
important to remember that Pooled Regression Coefficients do not measure demand effect 
separately for each store, but yield an ‘overall’ measure of demand. 
This approach can be used when the groups to be pooled are relatively similar or homogenous. 
Level differences can be removed by 'mean-centering' (similar to Within-Effects Model) the data 
across the groups (subtracting the mean or average of each group from observations for the 
group). The model can be directly run using Ordinary Least Squares on the concatenated groups. 
groups are not all that homogenous and a more advanced approach like Random Effects Model 
may be more appropriate. 
F Statistic: An F-test is any statistical test in which the test statistic has an F-distribution under 
the null hypothesis. It is most often used when comparing statistical models that have been fitted 
to a dataset, in order to identify the model that best fits the population from which the data were 
sampled. Exact F-tests mainly arise when the models have been fitted to the data using least 
squares. It analyzes the fitness of the regression model. 
For example, the null hypothesis of F-statistic that the model is not a fit model can be rejected if 
the probability-value of F-statistic is less than 5% level of significance, with 95% confidence 
interval. 
The multiple regression model is applied considering profitability as the dependent variable and 
all other variables as independent variables. 
푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ 푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푷푷푬 + 휷ퟑ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟒ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟓ푪푫풓풂풕풊풐 
+ 휷ퟔ푶푬 + 휷ퟕ푹푶푬 + 휷ퟖ푶풇풇풊풄풆풔 + 휷ퟗ푩푷푬 + 휷ퟏퟎ푵푷푨 + 풆풊 
푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 
푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. 
The null hypothesis of the regression model is that All the independent variables taken in this 
model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. Which means that there is no impact of independent 
variables on the dependent variable. 
The analysis of fitness of the regression model is done with the help of F-Statistics. 
With 95% confidence interval. If the probability value of F-Statistics is less than 5% (0.05) level
of significance then we reject the null hypothesis. In other words, The independent variables do 
AFFECT the NET PROFIT 
In the table given below, R represents, the multiple correlation coefficient between dependent 
and independent variables considered in the regression model. 
The square of R, popularly known as 푅2 , is the coefficient of determination. It explains the 
percentage of variation in dependent variables which can be explained by the independent 
variables. 
25 | P a g e 
TABLE 1: Model Summary 
Model R R Square Adjusted 
R Square 
Standard Error of 
the Estimate 
F- test 
(significance) 
0.853 0.728 0.720 10028.81938 
99.661 
(0.000) 
The result indicates that the F-Statistics of the regression model is 99.661 and the probability 
value of F-statistics is 0.000 which is less than 5% level of significance. Hence, The Null 
hypothesis of the F-statistics that the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT 
AFFECT the net profit is Rejected. Hence the model is a good fit. 
푅 2of the model is 72.8%. This implies that the model explains 72.8% of the profitability with 
the help of the considered factors in the model. 
The adjusted 푅 2 of the model is found to be 72% it is the value of 푅 2 adjusted with degree of 
freedom. 
This table tells us the significance of each independent variable on measuring the dependent 
variable i.e. Net Profit. The negative standardized coefficients imply that those independent 
variables with negative beta values have negative relation with the net profit. The constant is the 
value of the net profit when all the independent variables are zero. 
Standardized Coefficients: In statistics, standardized coefficients or beta coefficients are the 
estimates resulting from an analysis carried out on independent variables that have been 
standardized . Therefore, standardized coefficients refer to how many standard deviations a 
dependent variable will change, per standard deviation increase in the predictor variable. 
Standardization of the coefficient is usually done to answer the question of which of the 
independent variables have a greater effect on the dependent variable in a multiple 
regression analysis, when the variables are measured in different units of measurement. 
It uses z-score of Y and X-variables. Standardizing all variables in a multiple regression yields 
standardized regression coefficients that show the change in the dependent variable measured
in standard deviations. The coefficients ignore the independent variable's scale of units, which 
makes comparisons easy. 
Unstandardized Coefficients : Unstandardized relationships are expressed in terms of the variables' 
original, raw units. The Beta depends upon the unit of the variable, that is, if unit changes the 
variable also changes. It's estimated using original values of X and Y. Unstandardized 
coefficients are usually used for forecasting. 
T-statistic : In statistics, the t-statistic is a ratio of the departure of an estimated parameter from 
its notional value and its standard error. It is used in hypothesis testing. Let be an estimator of 
parameter 훽 in some statistical model. Then a t-statistic for this parameter is any quantity of the 
form 
where β0 is a non-random, known constant, and is the standard error of the 
estimator . By default, statistical packages report t-statistic with β0 = 0 (these t-statistics are 
used to test the significance of corresponding regressor). However, when t-statistic is needed 
to test the hypothesis of the form H0: β = β0, then a non-zero β0 may be used. 
If 훽 is an ordinary least squares estimator in the classical linear regression model (that is, 
with normally distributed and homoskedastic ( error terms), and if the true value of 
parameter β is equal toβ0, then the sampling distribution of the t-statistic is the Student’s t-distribution 
26 | P a g e 
with (n − k) degrees of freedom, where n is the number of observations, and k is 
the number of regressors (including the intercept). 
In the majority of models the estimator is consistent for 훽 and distributed asymptotically 
normally. If the true value of parameter 훽 is equal to β0 and the quantity correctly 
estimates the asymptotic variance of this estimator, then the t-statistic will have 
asymptotically the standard normal distribution.
27 | P a g e 
TABLE 2 
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients 
t-test 
(significance) 
훽 Standard Error 훽 
(Constant) 2929.483 1451.647 2.018 
(0.044) 
Spread 0.299 0.100 0.722 3.003 
(0.003) 
Profit Per Employee -57.017 141.399 -0.012 -0.403 
(0.0687) 
Non-Interest 
Income 0.375 0.150 0.409 
2.504 
(0.013) 
Cash and Reserve 0.051 0.019 0.315 
2.736 
(0.007) 
Cash/Deposit 
Ratio 
32.971 450.391 0.002 
0.073 
(0.942) 
Operating 
Expenses 
-0.338 0.190 -0.543 
-1.779 
(0.076) 
Return on Equity 5.738 73.608 0.002 
0.078 
(0.938) 
Offices -0.483 0.728 -0.049 
-0.664 
(0.507) 
Business Per 
Employee 
-10.418 5.735 -0.054 
-1.816 
(0.070) 
Non-Performing -315.655 398.936 -0.023 -.791
Asset (0.429) 
In Table 2, the regression coefficients resulting from the application of multiple regression model 
reveal that 3 independent variables have exerted influence on profitability. These variables 
include Spread, Non Interest Income & Cash and Reserves. 
T- test 
The hypothesis is given by; 
160000 
140000 
120000 
100000 
80000 
60000 
40000 
20000 
0 
-20000 
28 | P a g e 
푯ퟎ : 휷풋 = ퟎ 
푯ퟏ : 휷풋 > 0 
Taking 95% level of significance if the P-value is less than 5% we will reject the null hypothesis. 
In the others, the independent variables have an impact on net profitability. 
It can be concluded that Spread has the maximum effect and significance in the net profit and the 
CD ratio has the least effect. 
We can remove those variables that do not have significant effect on Net Profit 
Variables Removed: PPE, CD ratio, OE, ROE, Offices, NPA and BPE. 
-40000 
Model 1 
1 
14 
27 
40 
53 
66 
79 
92 
105 
118 
131 
144 
157 
170 
183 
196 
209 
222 
235 
248 
261 
274 
287 
300 
313 
326 
339 
352 
365 
378 
Predicted Value Actual Value
Model 2: Pooled Regression (Only Significant Variables) 
29 | P a g e 
푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 풆풊 
푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 
푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. 
Table 3: Model Summary 
Model R R Square Adjusted 
R Square 
Standard Error of 
the Estimate 
F- test 
(significance) 
0.849 0.721 0.719 10040.98751 
328.545 
(0.000) 
Since we have removed the variables that were not significant, the values still have not varied 
vastly. Only these three factors together explain 72.1% of variations in the net profit. Thus this 
model is better as compared to the previous model. 
TABLE 4 
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients 
t-test 
(significance) 
훽 Standard Error 훽 
(Constant) 
1178.055 593.423 
1.985 
(0.048) 
Spread 
0.111 0.034 0.267 
3.230 
(0.001) 
Non- Interest 
Income 0.189 0.100 0.206 
1.898 
(0.05) 
Cash and Reserve 
0.063 0.017 0.392 
3.798 
(0.00)
T- test 
The hypothesis is given by; 
160000 
140000 
120000 
100000 
80000 
60000 
40000 
20000 
0 
-20000 
30 | P a g e 
푯ퟎ : 휷풋 = ퟎ 
푯ퟏ : 휷풋 > 0 
Taking 95% level of significance if the P-value is less than 5% we will reject the null hypothesis. 
In the others, the independent variables have an impact on net profitability. 
-40000 
Model 2 
1 
13 
25 
37 
49 
61 
73 
85 
97 
109 
121 
133 
145 
157 
169 
181 
193 
205 
217 
229 
241 
253 
265 
277 
289 
301 
313 
325 
337 
349 
361 
373 
385 
Predicted Value Actual Value
 Regression with Panel Data Approach 
Panel data (also known as longitudinal or cross- sectional time-series data) is a dataset in which 
the behavior of entities are observed across time. Panel data allows you to control for variables 
you cannot observe or measure like cultural factors or difference in business practices across 
companies; or variables that change over time but not across entities (i.e. national policies, 
federal regulations, international agreements, etc.). This is, it accounts for individual 
heterogeneity. 
With panel data you can include variables at different levels of analysis (i.e. students, schools, 
districts, states) suitable for multilevel or hierarchical modeling. 
Some drawbacks are data collection issues (i.e. sampling design, coverage), non-response in the 
case of micro panels or cross-country dependency in the case of macro panels. 
Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model are two techniques of analyzing Panel data used 
widely. However , we will be using only the Fixed Effect Model in our study. 
Model 3: Fixed Effect Model with Time Dummies 
Fixed Effect Model : Use fixed-effects (FE) whenever you are only interested in analyzing the 
impact of variables that vary over time. FE explore the relationship between predictor and 
outcome variables within an entity (country, person, company, etc.). Each entity has its own 
individual characteristics that may or may not influence the predictor variables (for example 
being a male or female could influence the opinion toward certain issue or the political system of 
a particular country could have some effect on trade or GDP or the business practices of a 
company may influence its stock price). When using FE we assume that something within the 
individual may impact or bias the predictor or outcome variables and we need to control for this. 
This is the rationale behind the assumption of the correlation between entity’s error term and 
predictor variables. FE remove the effect of those time-invariant characteristics from the 
predictor variables so we can assess the predictors’ net effect. Another important assumption of 
the FE model is that those time-invariant characteristics are unique to the individual and should 
not be correlated with other individual characteristics. Each entity is different therefore the 
31 | P a g e
entity’s error term and the constant (which captures individual characteristics) should not be 
correlated with the others. If the error terms are correlated then FE is no suitable since inferences 
may not be correct and you need to model that relationship (probably using random-effects). 
Fixed effects 
The equation for the fixed effects model becomes: 
32 | P a g e 
Yi= β1Xi+ α+ ui 
Where 
-αi(i=1….n) is the unknown intercept for each intercept 
-Y is the dependent variable (DV) where i= entity and t= time. 
-Xi represents one independent variable (IV), 
- β1 is the coefficient for that IV, 
-ui is the error term 
Dummy Variables : Dummy variables are "proxy" variables or numeric stand-ins 
for qualitative facts in a regression model. In regression analysis, the dependent variables may be 
influenced not only by quantitative variables (income, output, prices, etc.), but also by qualitative 
variables (gender, religion, geographic region, etc.). A dummy independent variable, or a dummy 
explanatory variable, which for some observation has a value of 0 will cause that 
variable's coefficient to have no role in influencing the dependent variable, while when the 
dummy takes on a value 1 its coefficient acts to alter the intercept. 
Dummy variables are used frequently in time series analysis with regime switching, seasonal 
analysis and qualitative data applications. 
Time Dummies: Time dummies have been used in this model to counteract any variation 
generated over a period of five years, from 2008 to 2013 .
푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟒ푻푫ퟏ + 휷ퟓ푻푫ퟐ + 
휷ퟔ푻푫ퟑ + 휷ퟕ푻푫ퟒ + 풆풊 
Here, TD represents the Time Dummies 
푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 
푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. 
33 | P a g e 
Table 5: Model Summary 
Model R R Square Adjusted 
R Square 
Standard Error of 
the Estimate 
F- test 
(significance) 
0.850 0.722 0.717 10074.88994 
140.065 
(0.000) 
TABLE 6 
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients 
t-test 
(significance) 
훽 Standard Error 훽 
(Constant) 
545.022 1182.590 
0.461 
(0.645) 
Spread 
0.107 0.035 0.258 
3.047 
(0.002) 
Non-Interest 
Income 0.201 0.107 0.220 
1.889 
(0.060) 
Cash And 
Reserves 0.062 0.017 0.387 
3.609 
(0.000)
In this table ,We took 2008 as the base year and created 4 dummies for the next 4 years. The 
lower significance level signifies more explanatory power to dependent variable and hence it can 
be concluded that the most significant variable in all the years have been Cash and Reserve It 
contributed the most in variations in the net profit. 
160000 
140000 
120000 
100000 
80000 
60000 
40000 
20000 
0 
-20000 
-40000 
34 | P a g e 
Model 3 
1 
14 
27 
40 
53 
66 
79 
92 
105 
118 
131 
144 
157 
170 
183 
196 
209 
222 
235 
248 
261 
274 
287 
300 
313 
326 
339 
352 
365 
378 
Predicted Value Actual Value
35 | P a g e 
Model 4: Fixed Effect Model with Bank Dummies 
Bank Dummies: Banks have been used as dummies so as to generalize the individual impact of 
all the variations in 77 banks. 
푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟒ푩푫ퟏ + 휷ퟓ푩푫ퟐ + 
휷ퟔ푩푫ퟑ +… … + 휷ퟕퟗ푩푫ퟕퟔ + 풆풊 
Here , BD represents Bank Dummies 
푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 
푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. 
Table 5: Model Summary 
Model R R Square Adjusted 
R Square 
Standard Error of the 
Estimate 
F- test 
(significance) 
0.938 0.880 0.849 7358.80005 
28.347 
(0.000)
36 | P a g e 
TABLE 6 
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized 
Coefficients 
t-test 
(significance) 
훽 Standard Error 훽 
(Constant) 
-10748.541 17895.521 
-0.601 
(0.549) 
Spread 
-0.019 0.059 -0.045 
-0.318 
(0.750) 
Non-Interest Income 
0.175 0.152 0.191 
1.148 
(0.252) 
Cash And Reserves 
0.132 0.030 0.821 
4.348 
(0.000) 
In this table ,We took SBI as the base bank and created 76 dummies for the remaining 76 banks. 
The lower significance level signifies more explanatory power to dependent variable and hence it 
can be concluded that the most significant variable in all the Banks have been Cash and Reserve 
It contributed the most in variations in the net profit.
37 | P a g e 
-100000 
-50000 
0 
50000 
100000 
150000 
1 
15 
29 
43 
57 
71 
85 
99 
113 
127 
141 
155 
169 
183 
197 
211 
225 
239 
253 
267 
281 
295 
309 
323 
337 
351 
365 
379 
Predicted Value Actual Value 
Model 4
5.CONCLUSION 
In this paper, we have made an attempt to identify the key determinants of profitability of all the 
banks in India. The analysis is based on pool regression and fixed effect regression model(in the 
cases of time and individual banks). We used panel data from the year 2008 to 2012. The study 
has brought out that the explanatory power of some variables is significantly high. Such 
variables include Net Spread, Non Interest Income and Cash And Reserve. However, some 
variables namely Profit per employee, Cash-Deposit Ratio, Operating Expense, Rate Of Equity, 
Offices, Non Performing Assets and Business per employee are found with low explanatory 
power. Hence the variables Net spread, non interest income (NII) and cash and reserve (CNR) 
have a significant relationship with Net Profit, where spread has the maximum influence and 
Cash - Deposit Ratio has the least effect on net profit. On introducing Time and Bank Dummies 
under the fixed effect model, we have found that only Cash And Reserve has an effect on bank 
profitability. 
Although this research was carefully prepared, we are still aware of its limitations and 
shortcomings. 
First of all, even though the research tried to cover all operating nationalised, private and public 
sector banks in India, some were left out due to unavailability of data. 
Second, only a period of five years have been covered in this study. It would have been better if 
a larger time period was covered. It'd have given a better picture of the banking system in India. 
Third, the project is done on few variables affecting the profitability. There are bound to be 
other variables which may considerably affect the profitability of banks. 
Fourth, Panel Data cannot be studied and analyzed using the software package we've used for 
applying regression, that is, The SPSS Package. 
Fifth, the variable ‘age of the company’ being the influential factor to profit per employee has 
been excluded as the earnings of private banks have been better instead of the public banks, the 
old members of the said industry. 
However, the banks are now facing a number of challenges such as frequent changes in 
technology required for modern banking, stringent prudential norms, increasing competition, 
38 | P a g e
worrying level of NPA.s, rising customer expectations, increasing pressure on profitability, 
assets-liability management, liquidity and credit risk management, rising operating expenditure, 
shrinking size of spread and so on. The reforms in banking sector have also brought the 
profitability under pressure. RBI.s efforts to adopt international banking standards have further 
forced the banks to shift the focus to profitability for survival. Hence, profitability has become 
major area of concern for bank’s management. In fact, profit is an important criteria to measure 
the performance of banks in addition to productivity, financial and operational efficiency. 
39 | P a g e
40 | P a g e 
BIBLIOGRAPHY 
The following sources have been very helpful in designing this paper and helping us to 
understand and analyze the various aspects of banking, economics and statistical arenas. 
 www.rbi.org 
 www.wikipedia.com 
 www.princeton.edu 
 www.ebw.in 
 B.S. Badola, Richa Verma (2006), “DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY OF 
BANKS IN INDIA-A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS” 
 Damodar N. Gujarati, Sangeetha(2011), “Basic Econometrics’’ 
 http://www.investopedia.com/

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Profitability of banks in India- A statistical analysis

  • 1. 1 | P a g e Project Report On PROFITABILITY OF BANKS IN INDIA Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ECONOMICS By Akanksha Garg(Roll No. 2531) Archit Aggarwal (Roll No. 2524) Pulkit Vig (Roll No. 2557) Shivani Baghel (Roll No.2534) Siddhant Kapur (Roll No. 2533) Tanuj Mendiratta (Roll No.2569) Supervisor : Mr. Abhishek Kumar Assistant Professor (University Of Delhi)
  • 2. 2 | P a g e DECLARATION I hereby declare that the project work entitled “Profitability of Banks” submitted to the University of Delhi, is a record of an original work done by us under the guidance of Mr. Abhishek Kumar, Ram Lal Anand College(E) , and this project work has not been partially or fully copied from any other project (diploma and degree course). Also due credit has been provided to all sources from which the data has been taken. Akanksha Garg(Roll No. 2531) Archit Aggarwal (Roll No. 2524) Supervisor : Pulkit Vig (Roll No. 2557) Abhishek Kumar Shivani Baghel (Roll No.2534) (Assistant Professor) Siddhant Kapur (Roll No. 2533) (University Of Delhi) Tanuj Mendiratta (Roll No.2569
  • 3. 3 | P a g e ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This is to acknowledge the efforts of one and all to make this project success. Thanks to everyone for their patience, hard work and sincerity, we are able to complete this project effectively. We are equally grateful to our mentor Mr. Abhishek Kumar for his consistent guidance, encouragement and support during the development of this work. We also want to thank Ms. Aastha, Coordinator, BA(H) Business Economics for extending her support. We are also grateful to our Institution and our faculty members without whom this project would have been a distant reality. Also, We would like to express our eternal gratitude to our parents for their everlasting love and support. Thanking you AKANKSHA GARG(Roll No. 2531) ARCHIT AGGARWAL(Roll No. 2524) PULKIT VIG(Roll No. 2557) SHIVANI BAGHEL(Roll No.2534) SIDDHANT KAPUR(Roll No. 2533) TANUJ MENDIRATTA (Roll No.2569)
  • 4. 4 | P a g e INDEX TOPIC PAGE NO. Introduction 5 Literature Review 15 Database And Methodology 18 Regression Analysis 23 Conclusion 38 Bibliography 39
  • 5. 1.INTRODUCTION A Bank is a financial institution and a financial intermediary that accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities, either directly by loaning or indirectly through capital markets. A bank links together customers that have capital deficits and customers with capital surpluses. Due to their influential status within the financial system and upon national economies, banks are highly regulated in most countries. They play a very crucial role in shaping a country's economical and social background and hence act as an active agent in determining their growth perspectives. In this paper , we aim to analyze what determines the profitability of banks in India.. A dataset of five years, from fiscal year 2008 to 2013 has been taken into consideration to analyze the various aspects of bank profitability. 77 banks operational in India have been analyzed and interpreted on various parameters like Net Spread, Cash Deposit Ratio, Cash and Reserves etc. The study has been conducted with the help of various statistical and econometric tools of regression. Banking in India originated in the last decades of the 18th century. The first banks were The General Bank of India, which started in 1786, and Bank of Hindustan, which started in 1770; both are now defunct. The oldest bank in existence in India is the State Bank of India, which originated in the Bank of Calcutta in June 1806, which almost immediately became the Bank of Bengal. This was one of the three presidency banks, the other two being the Bank of Bombay and the Bank of Madras, all three of which were established under charters from the British East India Company. For many years the Presidency banks acted as quasi-central banks, as did their successors. The three banks merged in 1921 to form the Imperial Bank of India, which, upon India's independence, became the State Bank of India in 1955. Banking occupies one of the most important positions in the modern economic world. It is necessary for trade and industry. Hence it is one of the great agencies of commerce. Although banking in one form or another has been in existence from very early times, modern banking is of recent origin. It is one of the results of the Industrial Revolution and the child of economic 5 | P a g e
  • 6. necessity. Its presence is very helpful to the economic activity and industrial progress of a country. Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1991-92, the banking sector in India has seen numerous developments and policy changes. The more important reforms initiated in the banking sector includes adoption of prudential norms in terms of capital adequacy, assets classification and provisioning, deregulation of interest rates, lowering of Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), opening of the sector to private participation, permission to foreign banks to expand their operations through subsidiaries, the introduction of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and liberalization of FDI norms. The main thrust of the banking sector reforms has been the creation of efficient and stable financial institutions and development of the banking industry. The reforms have been undertaken gradually with mutual consent and wider debate amongst the participants and in a sequential pattern that is reinforcing to the overall economy. Banking sectors reforms have changed the face of INDIAN BANKING INDUSTRY. The reforms have led to the increase in resource productivity, increasing level of deposits, credits and profitability and decrease in non-performing assets. However, the profitability, which is an important criteria to measure the performance of banks in addition to productivity, financial and operational efficiency, has come under pressure because of changing environment of banking. An efficient management of banking operations aimed at ensuring growth in profits and efficiency requires up-to-date knowledge of all those factors on which the banks profit depends. History Merchants in Calcutta established the Union Bank in 1839, but it failed in 1840 as a consequence of the economic crisis of 1848-49. The Allahabad Bank, established in 1865 and still functioning today, is the oldest Joint Stock bank in India.(Joint Stock Bank: A company that issues stock and requires shareholders to be held liable for the company's debt) It was not the first though. That honor belongs to the Bank of Upper India, which was established in 1863, and which survived until 1913, when it failed, with some of its assets and liabilities being transferred to the Alliance Bank of Simla. 6 | P a g e
  • 7. Foreign banks too started to app, particularly in Calcutta, in the 1860s. The Comptoir d'Escompte de Paris opened a branch in Calcutta in 1860, and another in Bombay in 1862; branches in Madras and Pondicherry, then a French colony, followed. HSBC established itself in Bengal in 1869. Calcutta was the most active trading port in India, mainly due to the trade of the British Empire, and so became a banking center. The first entirely Indian joint stock bank was the Oudh Commercial Bank, established in 1881 in Faizabad. It failed in 1958. The next was the Punjab National Bank, established in Lahore in 1895, which has survived to the present and is now one of the largest banks in India. Around the turn of the 20th Century, the Indian economy was passing through a relative period of stability. Around five decades had elapsed since the Indian Mutiny, and the social, industrial and other infrastructure had improved. Indians had established small banks, most of which served particular ethnic and religious communities. The presidency banks dominated banking in India but there were also some exchange banks and a number of Indian joint stock banks. All these banks operated in different segments of the economy. The exchange banks, mostly owned by Europeans, concentrated on financing foreign trade. Indian joint stock banks were generally under capitalized and lacked the experience and maturity to compete with the presidency and exchange banks. This segmentation let Lord Curzon to observe, "In respect of banking it seems we are behind the times. We are like some old fashioned sailing ship, divided by solid wooden bulkheads into separate and cumbersome compartments." The period between 1906 and 1911, saw the establishment of banks inspired by the Swadeshi movement. The Swadeshi movement inspired local businessmen and political figures to found banks of and for the Indian community. A number of banks established then have survived to the present such as Bank of India, Corporation Bank, Indian Bank, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank and Central Bank of India. The fervor of Swadeshi movement lead to establishing of many private banks in Dakshina Kannada and Udupi district which were unified earlier and known by the name South Canara ( South Kanara ) district. Four nationalized banks started in this district and also a leading private 7 | P a g e
  • 8. sector bank. Hence undivided Dakshina Kannada district is known as "Cradle of Indian Banking". During the First World War (1914–1918) through the end of the Second World War (1939– 1945), and two years thereafter until the independence of India were challenging for Indian banking. The years of the First World War were turbulent, and it took its toll with banks simply collapsing despite the Indian economy gaining indirect boost due to war-related economic activities. At least 94 banks in India failed between 1913 and 1918 as indicated in the following table: YEARS NUMBERS OF 8 | P a g e BANK THAT FAILED AUTHORISED CAPITAL (Rs. Lacs) PAID-UP CAPITAL (Rs. Lacs) 1913 12 274 35 1914 42 710 109 1915 11 56 5 1916 13 231 4 1917 9 76 25 1918 7 209 1
  • 9. Post-Independence The partition of India in 1947 adversely impacted the economies of Punjab and West Bengal, paralyzing banking activities for months. India's independence marked the end of a regime of the Laissez-faire for the Indian banking. The Government of India initiated measures to play an active role in the economic life of the nation, and the Industrial Policy Resolution adopted by the government in 1948 envisaged a mixed economy. This resulted into greater involvement of the state in different segments of the economy including banking and finance. The major steps to regulate banking included  'The Reserve Bank of India, India's central banking authority, was established in April 1935, but was nationalized on January 1, 1949 under the terms of the Reserve Bank of India (Transfer to Public Ownership) Act, 1948 (RBI, 2005b).[1]  In 1949, the Banking Regulation Act was enacted which empowered the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "to regulate, control, and inspect the banks in India".  The Banking Regulation Act also provided that no new bank or branch of an existing bank could be opened without a license from the RBI, and no two banks could have common directors. Nationalization Despite the provisions, control and regulations of Reserve Bank of India, banks in India except the State Bank of India or SBI, continued to be owned and operated by private persons. By the 1960s, the Indian banking industry had become an important tool to facilitate the development of the Indian economy. At the same time, it had emerged as a large employer, and a debate had ensued about the nationalization of the banking industry. Indira Gandhi, then Prime Minister of India, expressed the intention of the Government of India in the annual conference of the All 9 | P a g e
  • 10. India Congress Meeting in a paper entitled "Stray thoughts on Bank Nationalisation." [2] The meeting received the paper with enthusiasm. Thereafter, her move was swift and sudden. The Government of India issued an ordinance ('Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Ordinance, 1969')) and nationalised the 14 largest commercial banks with effect from the midnight of July 19, 1969. These banks contained 85 percent of bank deposits in the country.[2]Jayaprakash Narayan, a national leader of India, described the step as a "masterstroke of political sagacity." Within two weeks of the issue of the ordinance, the Parliament passed the Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertaking) Bill, and it received the presidential approval on 9 August 1969. A second dose of nationalization of 6 more commercial banks followed in 1980. The stated reason for the nationalization was to give the government more control of credit delivery. With the second dose of nationalization, the Government of India controlled around 91% of the banking business of India. Later on, in the year 1993, the government merged New Bank of India with Punjab National Bank. It was the only merger between nationalized banks and resulted in the reduction of the number of nationalised banks from 20 to 19. After this, until the 1990s, the nationalised banks grew at a pace of around 4%, closer to the average growth rate of the Indian economy. Liberalization In the early 1990s, the then Narasimha Rao government embarked on a policy of liberalization, licensing a small number of private banks. These came to be known as New Generation tech-savvy banks, and included Global Trust Bank (the first of such new generation banks to be set up), which later amalgamated with Oriental Bank of Commerce, UTI Bank (since renamed Axis Bank), ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. This move, along with the rapid growth in the economy of India, revitalized the banking sector in India, which has seen rapid growth with strong contribution from all the three sectors of banks, namely, government banks, private banks and foreign banks. The next stage for the Indian banking has been set up with the proposed relaxation in the norms for Foreign Direct Investment, where all Foreign Investors in banks may be given voting rights 10 | P a g e
  • 11. which could exceed the present cap of 10%,at present it has gone up to 74% with some restrictions. The new policy shook the Banking sector in India completely. Bankers, till this time, were used to the 4-6-4 method (Borrow at 4%;Lend at 6%;Go home at 4) of functioning. The new wave ushered in a modern outlook and tech-savvy methods of working for traditional banks. All this led to the retail boom in India. People not just demanded more from their banks but also received more. Current Scenario By 2013 , banking in India was generally fairly mature in terms of supply, product range and reach-even though reach in rural India still remains a challenge for the private sector and foreign banks. In terms of quality of assets and capital adequacy, Indian banks are considered to have clean, strong and transparent balance sheets relative to other banks in comparable economies in its region. The Reserve Bank of India is an autonomous body, with minimal pressure from the government. The stated policy of the Bank on the Indian Rupee is to manage volatility but without any fixed exchange rate-and this has mostly been true. With the growth in the Indian economy expected to be strong for quite some time-especially in its services sector-the demand for banking services, especially retail banking, mortgages and investment services are expected to be strong. One may also expect M&As, takeovers, and asset sales. In March 2006, the Reserve Bank of India allowed Warburg Pincus to increase its stake in Kotak Mahindra Bank (a private sector bank) to 10%. This is the first time an investor has been allowed to hold more than 5% in a private sector bank since the RBI announced norms in 2005 that any stake exceeding 5% in the private sector banks would need to be vetted by them. In recent years critics have charged that the non-government owned banks are too aggressive in their loan recovery efforts in connexion with housing, vehicle and personal loans. There are press reports that the banks' loan recovery efforts have driven defaulting borrowers to suicide. 11 | P a g e
  • 12. Adoption Of Banking Technology The IT revolution had a great impact in the Indian banking system. The use of computers had led to introduction of online banking in India. The use of the modern innovation and computerisation of the banking sector of India has increased many fold after the economic liberalisation of 1991 as the country's banking sector has been exposed to the world's market. The Indian banks were finding it difficult to compete with the international banks in terms of the customer service without the use of the information technology and computers. Number of branches of scheduled banks of India as of March 2005 The RBI in 1984 formed Committee on Mechanisation in the Banking Industry (1984) whose chairman was Dr C Rangarajan, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India. The major recommendations of this committee was introducing MICR Technology in all the banks in the metropolis in India.This provided use of standardized cheque forms and encoders. In 1988, the RBI set up Committee on Computerisation in Banks (1988) headed by Dr. C.R. Rangarajan which emphasized that settlement operation must be computerized in the clearing houses of RBI in Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, Jaipur, Patna and Thiruvananthapuram.It further stated that there should be National Clearing of inter-city cheques at Kolkata,Mumbai,Delhi,Chennai and MICR should be made Operational.It also focused on computerisation of branches and increasing connectivity among branches through computers. It 12 | P a g e
  • 13. also suggested modalities for implementing on-line banking. The committee submitted its reports in 1989 and computerisation began form 1993 with the settlement between IBA and bank employees' association. In 1994, Committee on Technology Issues relating to Payments System, Cheque Clearing and Securities Settlement in the Banking Industry (1994) was set up with chairman Shri WS Saraf, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India. It emphasized on Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) system, with the BANKNET communications network as its carrier. It also said that MICR clearing should be set up in all branches of all banks with more than 100 branches. Committee for proposing Legislation On Electronic Funds Transfer and other Electronic Payments (1995) emphasized on EFT system. Electronic banking refers to DOING BANKING by using technologies like computers, internet and networking, MICR,EFT so as to increase efficiency, quick service, productivity and transparency in the transaction. Number of ATMs of different Scheduled Commercial Banks Of India as on end March 2005 Apart from the above mentioned innovations the banks have been selling the third party products like Mutual Funds, insurances to its clients. Total numbers of ATMs installed in India by various banks as on end March 2005 is 17,642. The New Private Sector Banks in India is having the largest numbers of ATMs which is fol off site ATM is highest for the SBI and its subsidiaries 13 | P a g e
  • 14. and then it is followed by New Private Banks, Nationalised banks and Foreign banks. While on site is highest for the Nationalised banks of India. BANK GROUP NUMBER OF 14 | P a g e BRANCHES ON SITE ATM OFF SITE ATM TOTAL ATM NATIONALISED BANKS 33627 3205 1567 4772 STATE BANK OF INDIA 13661 1548 3672 5220 OLD PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS 4511 800 441 1241 NEW PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS 1685 1883 3729 5612 FOREIGN BANKS 242 218 579 797 Since the initiation of economic reforms, the banking sector in India has seen numerous developments and policy changes. The more important reforms initiated in the banking sector includes adoption of prudential norms in terms of capital adequacy, assets classification and provisioning, deregulation of interest rates, lowering of SLR and CRR, opening of the sector to private participation, permission to foreign banks to expand their operations through subsidiaries, the introduction of Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) and liberalization of FDI norms. The main thrust of the banking sector reforms has been the creation of efficient and stable financial institutions and development of the banking industry. The reforms have been undertaken gradually with mutual consent and wider debate amongst the participants and in a sequential pattern that is reinforcing to the overall economy. In the project of ours we are concentrating on the parameters such as Spread, Non Interest Income, Credit/Deposit Ratio, NPA as a percentage to Net Advances, BPE(Business per Employee), PPE(Profit per Employee), Cash and Reserve, Operating Expense and Return on Assets.
  • 15. 2.LITERATURE REVIEW A lot of research work has so far taken place concerning the views about the role of financial and banking development in economic growth [McKinnon (1973); Shaw (1973); Rajan and Zingales (1998); Levine (2004); Singh (2005)].Similarly some studies have been undertaken for measuring the productivity and operational efficiency of banks in India. More recent among them includes- Cheema and Agarwal (2002), Ketkar, Noulas and Agarwal (2003), Singh (2003). Insofar as our information is concerned, however, very scanty work has been done with the objective of identifying the determinants of profitability of banks in India. The recent studies of Chandan and Rajput (2002) and Saggar (2005) have examined the factors determining profitability of banks in India. Therefore, the onus of conducting more research studies lies on the researchers so as to identify the determinants of profitability of banks. It is in this context that the present study titled-‘.Indian Banking Industry’: A Multivariate Analysis. has been performed. Some of these studies have been mentioned : McKinnon (1973) McKinnon’s (1973) complementary hypothesis predicts that money and investment are complementary due to a self-financed investment, and that a real deposit rate is the key determinant of capital formation for financially constrained developing economies. Shaw (1973): The paper attempts to demonstrate the problematic nature of `market liberalisation' by concentrating in an area where renewed interest has resurfaced, this being financial markets. More precisely, the focus of this contribution will be on the setting of financial prices by central banks, especially in developing countries, a fairly common practice in the 1950s and 1960. The paper ascribed the poor performance of investment and growth in developing countries to interest rate ceilings, high reserve requirements and quantitative restrictions in the credit allocation mechanism. These restrictions were sources of `financial repression', the main 15 | P a g e
  • 16. symptoms of which were low savings, credit rationing and low investment. They propounded instead the thesis which has come to be known as `financial liberalisation', which can be succinctly summarised as amounting to ‘freeing’ financial markets from any intervention and letting the market determine the allocation of credit. Rajan and Zingales (1998): The paper examines whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship: that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms. Specifically, the authors ask whether industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of external finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more-developed financial markets. They find this to be true in a large sample of countries over the 1980s. The authors show this result is unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality. Copyright 1998 by American Economic Association. Ketkar, Noulas and Agarwal (2003): The paper seeks to determine the impact of various market and regulatory initiatives on efficiency improvements and profitability of Indian banks since the implementation of financial sector reforms following the recommendations of the Narasimham Committee in1992 and 1997. The reform process has shifted the focus of public sector dominated banking system from social banking to a more efficient and profit oriented industry. While the reform process has resulted in the private sector replacing the government as the source of resources for public sector banks (PSBs), the infusion of private equity capital has led to shareholders challenges to bureaucratic decision making. PSBs also face increasing competition not only from private and foreign banks but also from growing non- banking financial intermediaries like mutual funds and other capital market entities. The competitive pressures to improve efficiency in the banking sector has resulted in a switch from traditional paper based banking to electronic banking, use information technology and shift of emphasis from brick and mortar banking to use of ATMs. 16 | P a g e
  • 17. Levine (2004): This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many areas needing additional research. H. Semih Yildirim & George C. Philippatos (2007) Efficiency of Banks: Recent Evidence from the Transition Economies of Europe, 1993–2000. This study examines the cost and profit efficiency of banking sectors in twelve transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the period 1993–2000, using the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) and the distribution- free approach (DFA). The managerial inefficiencies in CEE banking markets were found to be significant, with average cost efficiency level for 12 countries of 72% and 77% by the DFA and the SFA, respectively. The alternative profit efficiency levels are found to be significantly lower relative to cost efficiency. According to the SFA, approximately one-third of banks' profit are lost to inefficiency, and almost one-half according to the DFA. The results of the second-stage regression analyses suggest that higher efficiency levels are associated with large and well-capitalized banks . The degree of competition has a positive influence on cost efficiency and a negative one on profit efficiency, while market concentration is negatively linked to efficiency. Finally, foreign banks are found to be more cost efficient but less profit efficient relative to domestically owned private banks and state-owned banks. 17 | P a g e
  • 18. 3. DATABASE AND METHODOLOGY The Indian financial system comprises an impressive network of Nationalized Banks, Commercial Banks CBs), Co-operative banks (CPB), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and Non-banking Finance Companies (NBFCs). The commercial banks comprise public sector, private sector and foreign sector banks. Though the number of foreign and private banks operating in India has increased from 21 and 23 in 1991 to 33 and 30, respectively in 2004, the public sector banks dominate the banking industry in terms of branch expansion, market share in deposits and lending etc. Accordingly, the scope of the present study is limited to Nationalized , Foreign , Public and Private Sector Banks operating in India. We have considered the data for 77 banks currently operating in India : Nationalized, Public sector, private sector and foreign banks. The dataset covers a period of fiver years, 2008-2013. The variables considered for the present study include Spread (S), Non-Interest Income (NII), Credit Deposit Ratio, Cash and Reserve, Business per employee, Office, Operating Expenses, Profit Per Employee and Returns on Equity. The data relating to these variables have been collected from the Reserve Bank of India. Bulletin and Internet ( www.rbi.org.in) The variables used are explained as: Cash And Reserves: Bank reserves are banks' holdings of deposits in accounts with their central bank (for instance the European Central Bank or the Federal Reserve, in the latter case including federal funds), plus currency that is physically held in the bank's vault (vault cash). The central banks of some nations set minimum reserve requirements. Even when no requirements are set, banks commonly wish to hold some reserves, called desired reserves, against unexpected events such as unusually large net withdrawals by customers or even bank runs.  Reserves on deposit – deposit accounts at the central bank, owned by banks.  Vault cash – reserves held as cash in bank vaults rather than being on deposit at the central bank. 18 | P a g e
  • 19.  Borrowed reserves – bank reserves that were obtained by borrowing from the central bank.  Non-borrowed reserves – bank reserves that were not obtained by borrowing from the central bank.  Required reserves – the amount of reserves that banks are required to hold, determined by the central bank as a function of a bank's deposit liabilities.  Excess reserves - bank reserves in excess of the reserve requirement. A portion of excess reserves (or even all of them) may be desired reserves.  Free reserves - the amount by which excess reserves exceed borrowed reserves. Total reserves – all bank reserves: vault cash plus reserves on deposit at the central bank, also borrowed plus non-borrowed, also required plus excess. Non Interest Income: Bank and creditor income derived primarily from fees. Examples of non-interest income include deposit and transaction fees, insufficient funds (NSF) fees, annual fees, monthly account service charges, inactivity fees, check and deposit slip fees, etc. Institutions charge fees that provide non-interest income as a way of generating revenue and ensuring liquidity in the event of increased default rates. Non-interest income makes up a significant portion of most banks' and credit card companies’ revenue. In 2008 alone, credit card issuers took in over $19 billion in penalty-fee income alone – this includes late fees and over-the-limit fees, among others. The passage of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure (CARD) Act of 2009 included sweeping restrictions on credit card companies’ ability to generate non-interest income Profits per Employee / Net Income per Employee: Profits per Employee (Net Income per Employee) = net income / number of employees. This ratio indicate the average profit generated per person employed. 19 | P a g e
  • 20. The profits per employee (or net income per employee) ratio is included in the financial statement ratio analysis spreadsheets highlighted in the left column, which provide formulas, definitions, calculation, charts and explanations of each ratio. The profits per employee ratio is listed in our net income ratios. Net Spread: Net spread refers to the difference in borrowing and lending rates of financial institutions (such as banks) in nominal terms. It is considered analogous to the gross margin of non-financial companies. Net spread is expressed as interest yield on earning assets (any asset, such as a loan, that generates interest income) minus interest rates paid on borrowed funds. Net spread is similar to net interest margin; net interest spread expresses the nominal average difference between borrowing and lending rates, without compensating for the fact that the amount of earning assets and borrowed funds may be different. Spread = Total Interest Income - Total Interest Expended Return On Equity: It is the ratio relating net profit (net income) to shareholder's equity. Here, shareholder's equity refers to share capital reserve and surplus of bank. Formula = Profit after tax/ Total Equity + Total Equity at the end of previous year) / 2)*100 Cash Deposit Ratio: Cash deposit Ratio is the ratio between the sum of liquid cash in hand and the amount of balance kept with Reserve Bank Of India and the deposits held. Cash-deposit ratio = (Cash in hand + Balances with RBI) / Deposits Operating Expense: Operating expenses are the expenses incurred in conducting the bank’s ongoing operations. An important component of a bank’s operating expenses is the interest payments that it must make on its liabilities, particularly on its deposits.Just as interest income varies with the level of interest rates, so do interest expenses. Non - interest expense consists of salaries for employees, expense on premises and equipment, rent on bank buildings, servicing costs. Operating expenses also accounts for loss in loans. 20 | P a g e
  • 21. Business Per Employee: This ratio is most useful when compared against other companies in the same industry. Ideally, a company wants the highest revenue per employee possible, as it denotes higher productivity. It is calculated as: Revenue/ No. Of employee . Non Performing Assets: A Non-performing asset (NPA) is defined as a credit facility in respect of which the interest and/or installment of principal has remained ‘past due’ for a specified period of time. NPA is a classification used by financial institutions that refer to loans that are in jeopardy of default. Once the borrower has failed to make interest or principal payments for 90 days the loan is considered to be a non-performing asset. Non-performing assets are problematic for financial institutions since they depend on interest payments for income. Troublesome pressure from the economy can lead to a sharp increase in non-performing loans and often results in massive write-downs. Typically we have three types of data sets which we use in economics: 1) Time series – This is the most common form of data that we use and they are quite easily accessible. You can see time series data in the Taiwan Statistical Databook, Central Banks websites and publications, the Economic Report of the President, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, the Asian Development Bank and at websites like economagic.com and the Directorate of Budget Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). Time series regression must face the formidable problems of autocorrelation and structural change. 2) Cross Section – This is data usually observed over geographic or demographic groups. A regression, which uses these cross section data sets, is called a cross sectional regression. Cross sectional regressions usually suffer from the problem of heteroskedasticity. Moreover, they are really only true for a moment in time and therefore there is always the lingering question of whether they can adequately represent the unchanging structure we are researching. 21 | P a g e
  • 22. 3) Panel Data – This type combines the first two types. Here we have a cross section, but we observe the cross section over time. If the same people or states or counties, sampled in the cross section, are then re-sampled at a different time we call this a longitudinal data set, which is a very valuable type of panel data set. Longitudinal data sets are very common in medical and biostatistical studies. Panel data sets are becoming more and more popular due to the widespread use of the computer making it easy to organize and produce such data. Comprehending from the description above , we understand that the data considered for 77 banks across five years from 2008 to 2013 is a panel data. However, to work competently for panel data , we need data set for a longer period of time. Having only a dataset for five years restrains us from studying and analyzing Panel Data regression in detail. The advanced complexities of panel data are again a barrier to it. Therefore, we have used both regression models in our study , namely The Multiple Regression Model : Pooled Regression Model and , The Fixed Effect Model for analyzing the panel data using Bank Dummies and Time Dummies 22 | P a g e
  • 23. 4.REGRESSION ANALYSIS  The Multiple Regression Model Multiple linear regression is a generalization of linear regression by considering more than one independent variable, and a specific case of general linear models formed by restricting the number of dependent variables to one. The general linear model incorporates a number of different statistical models: ANOVA, ANCOVA, MANOVA, MANCOVA, ordinary linear regression, t-test and F-test. In multivariate tests the columns of Y are tested together, whereas in univariate tests the columns of Y are tested independently, i.e., as multiple univariate tests with the same design matrix. The multiple regression model is given by; 23 | P a g e 풚 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ 풙ퟏ + 휷ퟐ풙ퟐ + 휷ퟑ풙ퟑ … + 휷풏풙풏 Where, α – Intercept β – Slope Coefficient (rate of change of y with respect to x ,keeping all other things constant) x – Independent variable y – Dependent variable Here β is known as the partial regression coefficient. The multiple regression model is applied considering profitability as the dependent variable and all other variables as independent variables.
  • 24. 24 | P a g e Model 1: Pooled Regression Model Pooled Regression is usually carried out on Time-Series Cross-Sectional data- data that has observations over time for several different units or ‘cross-sections’. Pooled regression works similar to regular regression, except an extra intercept or ‘dummy’ is added for each store. It is important to remember that Pooled Regression Coefficients do not measure demand effect separately for each store, but yield an ‘overall’ measure of demand. This approach can be used when the groups to be pooled are relatively similar or homogenous. Level differences can be removed by 'mean-centering' (similar to Within-Effects Model) the data across the groups (subtracting the mean or average of each group from observations for the group). The model can be directly run using Ordinary Least Squares on the concatenated groups. groups are not all that homogenous and a more advanced approach like Random Effects Model may be more appropriate. F Statistic: An F-test is any statistical test in which the test statistic has an F-distribution under the null hypothesis. It is most often used when comparing statistical models that have been fitted to a dataset, in order to identify the model that best fits the population from which the data were sampled. Exact F-tests mainly arise when the models have been fitted to the data using least squares. It analyzes the fitness of the regression model. For example, the null hypothesis of F-statistic that the model is not a fit model can be rejected if the probability-value of F-statistic is less than 5% level of significance, with 95% confidence interval. The multiple regression model is applied considering profitability as the dependent variable and all other variables as independent variables. 푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ 푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푷푷푬 + 휷ퟑ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟒ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟓ푪푫풓풂풕풊풐 + 휷ퟔ푶푬 + 휷ퟕ푹푶푬 + 휷ퟖ푶풇풇풊풄풆풔 + 휷ퟗ푩푷푬 + 휷ퟏퟎ푵푷푨 + 풆풊 푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. The null hypothesis of the regression model is that All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. Which means that there is no impact of independent variables on the dependent variable. The analysis of fitness of the regression model is done with the help of F-Statistics. With 95% confidence interval. If the probability value of F-Statistics is less than 5% (0.05) level
  • 25. of significance then we reject the null hypothesis. In other words, The independent variables do AFFECT the NET PROFIT In the table given below, R represents, the multiple correlation coefficient between dependent and independent variables considered in the regression model. The square of R, popularly known as 푅2 , is the coefficient of determination. It explains the percentage of variation in dependent variables which can be explained by the independent variables. 25 | P a g e TABLE 1: Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error of the Estimate F- test (significance) 0.853 0.728 0.720 10028.81938 99.661 (0.000) The result indicates that the F-Statistics of the regression model is 99.661 and the probability value of F-statistics is 0.000 which is less than 5% level of significance. Hence, The Null hypothesis of the F-statistics that the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit is Rejected. Hence the model is a good fit. 푅 2of the model is 72.8%. This implies that the model explains 72.8% of the profitability with the help of the considered factors in the model. The adjusted 푅 2 of the model is found to be 72% it is the value of 푅 2 adjusted with degree of freedom. This table tells us the significance of each independent variable on measuring the dependent variable i.e. Net Profit. The negative standardized coefficients imply that those independent variables with negative beta values have negative relation with the net profit. The constant is the value of the net profit when all the independent variables are zero. Standardized Coefficients: In statistics, standardized coefficients or beta coefficients are the estimates resulting from an analysis carried out on independent variables that have been standardized . Therefore, standardized coefficients refer to how many standard deviations a dependent variable will change, per standard deviation increase in the predictor variable. Standardization of the coefficient is usually done to answer the question of which of the independent variables have a greater effect on the dependent variable in a multiple regression analysis, when the variables are measured in different units of measurement. It uses z-score of Y and X-variables. Standardizing all variables in a multiple regression yields standardized regression coefficients that show the change in the dependent variable measured
  • 26. in standard deviations. The coefficients ignore the independent variable's scale of units, which makes comparisons easy. Unstandardized Coefficients : Unstandardized relationships are expressed in terms of the variables' original, raw units. The Beta depends upon the unit of the variable, that is, if unit changes the variable also changes. It's estimated using original values of X and Y. Unstandardized coefficients are usually used for forecasting. T-statistic : In statistics, the t-statistic is a ratio of the departure of an estimated parameter from its notional value and its standard error. It is used in hypothesis testing. Let be an estimator of parameter 훽 in some statistical model. Then a t-statistic for this parameter is any quantity of the form where β0 is a non-random, known constant, and is the standard error of the estimator . By default, statistical packages report t-statistic with β0 = 0 (these t-statistics are used to test the significance of corresponding regressor). However, when t-statistic is needed to test the hypothesis of the form H0: β = β0, then a non-zero β0 may be used. If 훽 is an ordinary least squares estimator in the classical linear regression model (that is, with normally distributed and homoskedastic ( error terms), and if the true value of parameter β is equal toβ0, then the sampling distribution of the t-statistic is the Student’s t-distribution 26 | P a g e with (n − k) degrees of freedom, where n is the number of observations, and k is the number of regressors (including the intercept). In the majority of models the estimator is consistent for 훽 and distributed asymptotically normally. If the true value of parameter 훽 is equal to β0 and the quantity correctly estimates the asymptotic variance of this estimator, then the t-statistic will have asymptotically the standard normal distribution.
  • 27. 27 | P a g e TABLE 2 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t-test (significance) 훽 Standard Error 훽 (Constant) 2929.483 1451.647 2.018 (0.044) Spread 0.299 0.100 0.722 3.003 (0.003) Profit Per Employee -57.017 141.399 -0.012 -0.403 (0.0687) Non-Interest Income 0.375 0.150 0.409 2.504 (0.013) Cash and Reserve 0.051 0.019 0.315 2.736 (0.007) Cash/Deposit Ratio 32.971 450.391 0.002 0.073 (0.942) Operating Expenses -0.338 0.190 -0.543 -1.779 (0.076) Return on Equity 5.738 73.608 0.002 0.078 (0.938) Offices -0.483 0.728 -0.049 -0.664 (0.507) Business Per Employee -10.418 5.735 -0.054 -1.816 (0.070) Non-Performing -315.655 398.936 -0.023 -.791
  • 28. Asset (0.429) In Table 2, the regression coefficients resulting from the application of multiple regression model reveal that 3 independent variables have exerted influence on profitability. These variables include Spread, Non Interest Income & Cash and Reserves. T- test The hypothesis is given by; 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 28 | P a g e 푯ퟎ : 휷풋 = ퟎ 푯ퟏ : 휷풋 > 0 Taking 95% level of significance if the P-value is less than 5% we will reject the null hypothesis. In the others, the independent variables have an impact on net profitability. It can be concluded that Spread has the maximum effect and significance in the net profit and the CD ratio has the least effect. We can remove those variables that do not have significant effect on Net Profit Variables Removed: PPE, CD ratio, OE, ROE, Offices, NPA and BPE. -40000 Model 1 1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365 378 Predicted Value Actual Value
  • 29. Model 2: Pooled Regression (Only Significant Variables) 29 | P a g e 푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 풆풊 푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. Table 3: Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error of the Estimate F- test (significance) 0.849 0.721 0.719 10040.98751 328.545 (0.000) Since we have removed the variables that were not significant, the values still have not varied vastly. Only these three factors together explain 72.1% of variations in the net profit. Thus this model is better as compared to the previous model. TABLE 4 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t-test (significance) 훽 Standard Error 훽 (Constant) 1178.055 593.423 1.985 (0.048) Spread 0.111 0.034 0.267 3.230 (0.001) Non- Interest Income 0.189 0.100 0.206 1.898 (0.05) Cash and Reserve 0.063 0.017 0.392 3.798 (0.00)
  • 30. T- test The hypothesis is given by; 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 30 | P a g e 푯ퟎ : 휷풋 = ퟎ 푯ퟏ : 휷풋 > 0 Taking 95% level of significance if the P-value is less than 5% we will reject the null hypothesis. In the others, the independent variables have an impact on net profitability. -40000 Model 2 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349 361 373 385 Predicted Value Actual Value
  • 31.  Regression with Panel Data Approach Panel data (also known as longitudinal or cross- sectional time-series data) is a dataset in which the behavior of entities are observed across time. Panel data allows you to control for variables you cannot observe or measure like cultural factors or difference in business practices across companies; or variables that change over time but not across entities (i.e. national policies, federal regulations, international agreements, etc.). This is, it accounts for individual heterogeneity. With panel data you can include variables at different levels of analysis (i.e. students, schools, districts, states) suitable for multilevel or hierarchical modeling. Some drawbacks are data collection issues (i.e. sampling design, coverage), non-response in the case of micro panels or cross-country dependency in the case of macro panels. Fixed Effect Model and Random Effect Model are two techniques of analyzing Panel data used widely. However , we will be using only the Fixed Effect Model in our study. Model 3: Fixed Effect Model with Time Dummies Fixed Effect Model : Use fixed-effects (FE) whenever you are only interested in analyzing the impact of variables that vary over time. FE explore the relationship between predictor and outcome variables within an entity (country, person, company, etc.). Each entity has its own individual characteristics that may or may not influence the predictor variables (for example being a male or female could influence the opinion toward certain issue or the political system of a particular country could have some effect on trade or GDP or the business practices of a company may influence its stock price). When using FE we assume that something within the individual may impact or bias the predictor or outcome variables and we need to control for this. This is the rationale behind the assumption of the correlation between entity’s error term and predictor variables. FE remove the effect of those time-invariant characteristics from the predictor variables so we can assess the predictors’ net effect. Another important assumption of the FE model is that those time-invariant characteristics are unique to the individual and should not be correlated with other individual characteristics. Each entity is different therefore the 31 | P a g e
  • 32. entity’s error term and the constant (which captures individual characteristics) should not be correlated with the others. If the error terms are correlated then FE is no suitable since inferences may not be correct and you need to model that relationship (probably using random-effects). Fixed effects The equation for the fixed effects model becomes: 32 | P a g e Yi= β1Xi+ α+ ui Where -αi(i=1….n) is the unknown intercept for each intercept -Y is the dependent variable (DV) where i= entity and t= time. -Xi represents one independent variable (IV), - β1 is the coefficient for that IV, -ui is the error term Dummy Variables : Dummy variables are "proxy" variables or numeric stand-ins for qualitative facts in a regression model. In regression analysis, the dependent variables may be influenced not only by quantitative variables (income, output, prices, etc.), but also by qualitative variables (gender, religion, geographic region, etc.). A dummy independent variable, or a dummy explanatory variable, which for some observation has a value of 0 will cause that variable's coefficient to have no role in influencing the dependent variable, while when the dummy takes on a value 1 its coefficient acts to alter the intercept. Dummy variables are used frequently in time series analysis with regime switching, seasonal analysis and qualitative data applications. Time Dummies: Time dummies have been used in this model to counteract any variation generated over a period of five years, from 2008 to 2013 .
  • 33. 푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟒ푻푫ퟏ + 휷ퟓ푻푫ퟐ + 휷ퟔ푻푫ퟑ + 휷ퟕ푻푫ퟒ + 풆풊 Here, TD represents the Time Dummies 푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. 33 | P a g e Table 5: Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error of the Estimate F- test (significance) 0.850 0.722 0.717 10074.88994 140.065 (0.000) TABLE 6 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t-test (significance) 훽 Standard Error 훽 (Constant) 545.022 1182.590 0.461 (0.645) Spread 0.107 0.035 0.258 3.047 (0.002) Non-Interest Income 0.201 0.107 0.220 1.889 (0.060) Cash And Reserves 0.062 0.017 0.387 3.609 (0.000)
  • 34. In this table ,We took 2008 as the base year and created 4 dummies for the next 4 years. The lower significance level signifies more explanatory power to dependent variable and hence it can be concluded that the most significant variable in all the years have been Cash and Reserve It contributed the most in variations in the net profit. 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 -20000 -40000 34 | P a g e Model 3 1 14 27 40 53 66 79 92 105 118 131 144 157 170 183 196 209 222 235 248 261 274 287 300 313 326 339 352 365 378 Predicted Value Actual Value
  • 35. 35 | P a g e Model 4: Fixed Effect Model with Bank Dummies Bank Dummies: Banks have been used as dummies so as to generalize the individual impact of all the variations in 77 banks. 푵풆풕 푷풓풐풇풊풕 = 휶 + 휷ퟏ푺풑풓풆풂풅 + 휷ퟐ푵푰푰 + 휷ퟑ푪푵푹 + 휷ퟒ푩푫ퟏ + 휷ퟓ푩푫ퟐ + 휷ퟔ푩푫ퟑ +… … + 휷ퟕퟗ푩푫ퟕퟔ + 풆풊 Here , BD represents Bank Dummies 푯ퟎ : All the independent variables taken in this model DO NOT AFFECT the net profit. 푯ퟏ : All the independent variables taken in this model AFFECT the net profit. Table 5: Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Standard Error of the Estimate F- test (significance) 0.938 0.880 0.849 7358.80005 28.347 (0.000)
  • 36. 36 | P a g e TABLE 6 Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t-test (significance) 훽 Standard Error 훽 (Constant) -10748.541 17895.521 -0.601 (0.549) Spread -0.019 0.059 -0.045 -0.318 (0.750) Non-Interest Income 0.175 0.152 0.191 1.148 (0.252) Cash And Reserves 0.132 0.030 0.821 4.348 (0.000) In this table ,We took SBI as the base bank and created 76 dummies for the remaining 76 banks. The lower significance level signifies more explanatory power to dependent variable and hence it can be concluded that the most significant variable in all the Banks have been Cash and Reserve It contributed the most in variations in the net profit.
  • 37. 37 | P a g e -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113 127 141 155 169 183 197 211 225 239 253 267 281 295 309 323 337 351 365 379 Predicted Value Actual Value Model 4
  • 38. 5.CONCLUSION In this paper, we have made an attempt to identify the key determinants of profitability of all the banks in India. The analysis is based on pool regression and fixed effect regression model(in the cases of time and individual banks). We used panel data from the year 2008 to 2012. The study has brought out that the explanatory power of some variables is significantly high. Such variables include Net Spread, Non Interest Income and Cash And Reserve. However, some variables namely Profit per employee, Cash-Deposit Ratio, Operating Expense, Rate Of Equity, Offices, Non Performing Assets and Business per employee are found with low explanatory power. Hence the variables Net spread, non interest income (NII) and cash and reserve (CNR) have a significant relationship with Net Profit, where spread has the maximum influence and Cash - Deposit Ratio has the least effect on net profit. On introducing Time and Bank Dummies under the fixed effect model, we have found that only Cash And Reserve has an effect on bank profitability. Although this research was carefully prepared, we are still aware of its limitations and shortcomings. First of all, even though the research tried to cover all operating nationalised, private and public sector banks in India, some were left out due to unavailability of data. Second, only a period of five years have been covered in this study. It would have been better if a larger time period was covered. It'd have given a better picture of the banking system in India. Third, the project is done on few variables affecting the profitability. There are bound to be other variables which may considerably affect the profitability of banks. Fourth, Panel Data cannot be studied and analyzed using the software package we've used for applying regression, that is, The SPSS Package. Fifth, the variable ‘age of the company’ being the influential factor to profit per employee has been excluded as the earnings of private banks have been better instead of the public banks, the old members of the said industry. However, the banks are now facing a number of challenges such as frequent changes in technology required for modern banking, stringent prudential norms, increasing competition, 38 | P a g e
  • 39. worrying level of NPA.s, rising customer expectations, increasing pressure on profitability, assets-liability management, liquidity and credit risk management, rising operating expenditure, shrinking size of spread and so on. The reforms in banking sector have also brought the profitability under pressure. RBI.s efforts to adopt international banking standards have further forced the banks to shift the focus to profitability for survival. Hence, profitability has become major area of concern for bank’s management. In fact, profit is an important criteria to measure the performance of banks in addition to productivity, financial and operational efficiency. 39 | P a g e
  • 40. 40 | P a g e BIBLIOGRAPHY The following sources have been very helpful in designing this paper and helping us to understand and analyze the various aspects of banking, economics and statistical arenas.  www.rbi.org  www.wikipedia.com  www.princeton.edu  www.ebw.in  B.S. Badola, Richa Verma (2006), “DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY OF BANKS IN INDIA-A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS”  Damodar N. Gujarati, Sangeetha(2011), “Basic Econometrics’’  http://www.investopedia.com/