Dr Dmitry Yumashev Small World Consulting & Lancaster University Environment Centre @ DecarboN8 Cumbria: Mobility Transformation 2037 Symposium (22 November 2022, Carlisle)

1. Cumbria Carbon Budget:
Landscape-level carbon footprint
assessment & decarbonisation options
Dr Dmitry Yumashev, Principal Consultant (Land Use),
Small World Consulting
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022
Model produced by: Dr Dmitry Yumashev, Dr Tom Higgs
Methodological oversight: Mike Berners-Lee
Presentation prepared by: Dr Dmitry Yumashev & Lorraine Ritchen-Stones, MBA, MSc
GIS and land use data support: LDNPA, Cumbria Local Nature Recovery Network & Cumbria Wildlife Trust
Input on data, methodology & communication: teams from Cumbria, UK National Parks & AONBs
Input on presentation: Mike Elliott, Net Zero Carbon Landscape Lead, Cotswolds National Landscape

2. Part 1:
Context

3. Climate & ecological emergency
Natural resource depletion
Loss of groundwater and topsoil due
to changing rainfall patterns
Rising sea levels
Flooding, soil contamination
Loss of agricultural land/habitats
Spreading pests & diseases
Supported by shifting climate
Rising CO2 levels weaken crop defenses
Wild food depletion
Ocean acidification
Loss of freshwater/land habitats
Biodiversity loss
Shrinking habitats & mass extinction
Mis-timed spring emergence
Greater risk of disease
Reduced access to food
Trade disruption & increased conflict
Rising food prices
Risk of displacement on unprecedented
scale
Extreme weather events
Droughts, storms, wildfires
Uninsurable property losses
Multi-breadbasket failure
Loss of nutrition
Rising CO2 levels decrease
nutritional value of staple crops

4. Major challenges and opportunities for
landscapes
Being land stewards
and planning authority
leaders
Cutting emissions in
line with cutting-edge
research
Adopting and scaling up
land use measures
Creating better
places to live, work
and visit
• Woodland creation
• Peatland restoration
• Renewable energy production
• Regenerative agriculture

5. Background
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022
First consumption-based
greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint
assessment for the Lake District
National Park (LDNP) by Small
World Consulting (SWC)
2010
An estimated 6% reduction in
annual GHG emissions in LDNP
based on SWC recommendations
2010–2017
Second consumption-based GHG
footprint assessment for LDNP by
SWC
2017
Extension of the assessment to the
Cumbria County, including six
unitary Local Authority Districts
within (“old model”)
2019–2020
Successful funding bid to establish
Zero Carbon Cumbria Partnership
to implement SWC
recommendations for Cumbria
2021
Extension of the LDNP and Cumbria
assessments to all National Parks
(15) and seven AONBs, and
refinement of Cumbria County
results (“new model”)
2021–2023

6. Part 2:
Approach

7. Assessment boundaries
Ø Consumption-based approach: full
footprint of lifestyles, goods & services
Ø Approach taken by leaders to
accelerate low-carbon transition
Ø All estimates are subject to
uncertainties, particularly for industry
Ø Industry / business overlaps with
• Land use and management
• Residents’ lifestyles
• Visitors while in the area
• Visitors travelling to/from the area
Ø Carbon baseline assessment year: 2019
Land use &
management
Visitors
travelling
to/from
the area
Industry
Residents Visitors while
in the area

8. Source: Greenhouse Gas Protocol
A brief introduction to carbon accounting
* Downstream Scope 3 is excluded from the assessment
of Industry, although it is included when products are
consumed by Residents and Visitors

9. Summary of Datasets Level of granularity of data
Confidence Levels:
High/Medium/Low
Dataset
Data
Year
Industry
sector base
Fuel type
base
Land Use
base
Demographic
base
Geographical
pinpoints
Postcodes COA LSOA MSOA
LA (Local
Authority
District)
NP / AONB
Original
Dataset
Implement.
in SWC Tool
SWC EEIO Emissions Factors for Industries 2019 High Medium
SWC-BEIS Emissions Factors for Fuels 2019 High High
ONS Postcode Directory 2019 High High
Custom Postcode Boundary 2019 High High
BEIS Domestic Electricity 2019 High High
BEIS Domestic Gas 2019 High High
ONS Population Demographics (2011 Census) 2011 High High
ONS Population Numbers (mid-year) 2019 High High
BEIS Non-Domestic Electricity 2019 High Medium
BEIS Non-Domestic Gas 2019 High Medium
BEIS Residual Fuels 2019 Medium Medium
BEIS Road Fuels 2019 Medium Medium
Custom DfT Traffic Points 2019 Medium High
ONS Gross Value Added (GVA) 2019 Medium Low
IDBR Data for Business Turnover 2019 High Medium
NAEI Data for Large Emitters 2019 High High
BEIS CO2 Emissions 2019 High Medium
BEIS Non-CO2 Emissions 2019 High Medium
BEIS-DEFRA Land Use GHG Emissions for NPs 2019 Medium High
ONS Atmospheric Emissions Inventory 2019 High High
STEAM Tourism Dataset 2019 Medium Medium
Civil Aviation Authority 2019 Medium Medium
Custom Visitor Surveys (where available) 2019 Medium Medium
ONS Household Expenditure A52 (by
demographics)
2019 Low Medium
Custom Habitat and Peatland Maps 2019 or
earlier
Medium Medium
Sixth Carbon Budget, Tyndall Carbon Budget
Tool, National Food Strategy, etc
2019-2021 Medium Medium
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022

10. Ø Interactive for ALL UK National Parks, multiple AONBs and multiple Unitary Local Authorities (ULAs)
Ø Python-based design (Excel version for National Parks & AONBs)
Ø Python, R, GIS & Excel pre-processing
Ø ~30 UK-wide, custom & SWC datasets
Ø Six geographies (points/addresses, postcodes, COAs, LSOAs, MSOAs, ULAs), 105 & 269 industry
sectors, ~30 demographic groups
Ø Scope 1, 2 & 3 GHG footprints for Residents, Visitors & Industries, ~15 output categories
Ø Targets for six footprint sub-categories, including nature-based climate solutions
Ø Example pathways to Net Zero
Ø Comparison between National Parks, AONBs and ULAs
Ø Potential to develop interactive dashboards to allow clients to update assessments in future years
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022
The Model

11. Part 3:
Results

12. Ø Cumbria County: Consumption-based GHG emissions for Residents and Visitors
Residents
6,740,833 tCO2e/year
Visitors while in the area
1,104,976 tCO2e/year
Visitors travelling to & from the area
2,797,274 tCO2e/year
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022
Household Fuel
Household Electricity
Vehicle Fuel
Vehicle Fuel
Vehicle Fuel
Car Manufacture &
Maintenance
Car Manufacture &
Maintenance
Car Manufacture &
Maintenance
Personal Flights
Personal Flights
Ferry Crossings & Cruises
Ferry Crossings & Cruises
Ferry Crossings &
Cruises
Trains, Buses & Other Transport
Trains, Buses &
Other Transport
Trains, Buses & Other Transport
Food & Drink
Food & Drink
Accommodation (Non Home)
Excl. Food
Accommodation (Non
Home) Excl. Food
Other Non-Food Shopping
Other Non-Food Shopping
Water, Waste & Sewerage
Water, Waste & Sewerage
Other Bought Services
Other Bought Services
Housing
Health, Education,
Other Public…
Leisure, Recreation & Attractions
Leisure, Recreation &
Attractions
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
Residents Visitors while in the NP/AONB Visitors travelling to and from the NP/AONB
GHG
Emissions
(tCO2e)
Visitors while in the area Visitors travelling to & from the area

13. Ø Cumbria County: Industry GHG emissions, by sector
Industry (GVA data): 4,061,907 tCO2e/year
This breakdown mostly excludes:
Ø Land use CO2 –162,767 tCO2e/year
The “Agriculture & Forestry” sector* partially
includes:
Ø Land use Non-CO2 1,884,707 tCO2e/year
DecarboN8 Symposium, 22 November 2022
* GVA turnover data for agriculture & forestry used
here is closely matched to the landscape boundary,
but the corresponding footprint estimate is based on
UK-average carbon intensity of these sectors
Agriculture, forestry
& fishing
5%
Production
47%
Construction
6%
Motor trades
2%
Wholesale
2%
Retail
5%
Transport & storage (inc.
postal)
12%
Accommodation & food
services
4%
Information &
communication
0.5%
Finance & insurance
1%
Property
0.6%
Professional, scientific &
technical
2%
Business administration &
support services
2%
Public administration &
defence
3%
Education
2%
Health
4%
Arts, entertainment, recreation &
other services
1%

14. Emissions from major
roads within Cumbria
● Selected major roads (M6):
531,745 tCO2e / year
● Through traffic (not stopping in the area):
337,906 tCO2e / year
~65% of total major road emissions
● Comparison: Total residents’ footprint
(consumption-based):
6,740,833 tCO2e / year

15. Part 4:
GHG
Baseline &
Budget

16. Six categories for emission reduction targets
Food & drink
Residents, visitors
Energy-only GHG
Residents, visitors, industry
(incl. supply chain)
Non-food shopping
Residents + visitors
(incl. car purchases)
Land-based non-CO2
(e.g. livestock, fertiliser use)
Travel to/from the area
Visitors
(excl. flights, incl. car
manufacturing)
Land-based CO2
(e.g. sequestration, soil
degradation)

17. Cumbria
GHG
Baseline
Refinement
Old model (approx.),
new data
Net: 7.77M
New model (2022),
new data
Net: 11.05M
Old model (2020),
old data
Net: 8.00M
IMPORTANT: The definitions of most categories, particularly of
“Energy” and “Land use”, have changed in the new model

18. Cumbria: 2019 baseline emissions, new model
4,273,279
2,239,919
799,020
2,020,219
1,884,707
-162,767
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Energy-only GHG (Incl. Supp.
Chain):
Residents+Visitors+Industry
Food & Drink:
Residents+Visitors
Other Non-Food Shopping
(Incl. Cars): Residents+Visitors
Travel To & From (Excl.
Flights; Incl. Car Manufac.):
Visitors
Land Use Non-CO2 Land Use CO2
tCO2e
per
year
Total = 11,054,377 tCO2e/yr

19. ● Derived from science-based
assessments, including:
o UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget
o Tyndall Carbon Budget Tool
o UK’s National Food Strategy
o UNFCCC Paris Agreement
● Proposed emissions reductions /
carbon sequestration targets require
immediate, ambitious action to be
taken across ALL six emission
categories
Emission reduction &
carbon sequestration
targets

20. Land use change /
management options
● New native broadleaf/mixed woodland
● New productive coniferous woodland
● Peatland restoration
● Agroforestry (for improved grassland +
cropland)
● Hedgerows (for improved grassland +
cropland)
● Introducing legume species (for improved
grassland)
● Introducing cover crops (for cropland)
Land use targets are derived for each landscape
based on current spatially explicit habitat &
peat data + high-level opportunity mapping

21. Cumbria: Emission
reduction & carbon
sequestration targets
Land use targets:
• New woodland: ~2,000 ha/yr
• Share of native broadleaf/mixed
species: 80% of the target
• Restored peatland: ~4,300 ha/yr
• Species-rich grass: ~4,500 ha/yr
• Cover crops: ~1,100 ha/yr
• Agroforestry: ~700 ha/yr
• Hedgerows: ~40 ha/yr
% breakdown of total proposed reduction in
net annual GHG emissions from 2019 to 2050,
by category:
Energy-only GHG (Incl. Supp.
Chain):
Residents+Visitors+Industry
36%
Food & Drink:
Residents+Visitors
13%
Other Non-Food Shopping (Incl. Cars):
Residents+Visitors
5%
Travel To & From (Excl. Flights;
Incl. Car Manufac.): Visitors
16%
Land Use Non-CO2
11%
New Native
Broadleaf/Mixed Woodland
8%
New Productive Coniferous
Woodland
2%
Agroforestry (improved
grassland & cropland)
1%
Hedgerows (improved
grassland & cropland)
0.1%
Grazing Legumes (improved
grassland)
3%
Cover Cropping (cropland)
0.4% Restored Peatland
5%