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DecarboN8 Carbon Pathways Workshop: Kevin Anderson - Aligning UK Car CO2 with Paris

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An presentation from Professor Kevin Anderson for the DecarboN8 Workshop, 'Decarbonising Transport: Connecting Carbon Targets to Action' held at the Institute for Transport Studies on 07/01/20

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DecarboN8 Carbon Pathways Workshop: Kevin Anderson - Aligning UK Car CO2 with Paris

  1. 1. Twitter: @KevinClimate Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change Aligning UK Car CO2 with Paris provisional carbon budget analysis for DecarboN8
  2. 2. Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions DecarboN8 reframes the question
  3. 3. Not, what can the UK car sector deliver in terms of reducing emissions … but … What total reductions does Paris require the car sector to deliver? DecarboN8 reframes the question
  4. 4.  It takes the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment at face value  It is based on science AND equity  It ignores political and economic sensibilities This frames a far more challenging mitigation agenda than other analysis DecarboN8 reframes the question
  5. 5. Mitigation … we need to understand our starting point
  6. 6. … which requires some humility @KevinClimate  1990: first IPCC report  2018: CO2 67% >1990  …still rising in 2018  …up by around 1.6% 30 years of abject failure to reduce total emissions 1.6%
  7. 7. But isn’t the UK a climate progressive nation? @KevinClimate Include aviation & shipping, imports & exports, … the cut in CO2 since 1990 is just 10% (0.4% pa.) … similar for Sweden, France & Denmark …
  8. 8. Twitter: @KevinClimate … failure writ large
  9. 9. What does the IPCC tell us about Paris?
  10. 10. … it is carbon budgets, not long-term targets, that link with temperature rise
  11. 11. So how big is the “well below 2°C” budget?
  12. 12. According to the IPCC (SR1.5) …  To meet the Paris “well below 2°C” & “pursue … 1.5°C” commitment  From 2020 the global carbon budget for energy is ~650GtCO2 (to 2100 & beyond)  In 2018 global CO2 energy emissions were ~37GtCO2  i.e. under 18 years of current emissions
  13. 13. To translate Paris to UK budgets
  14. 14. …we need to understand: the science & maths of climate change
  15. 15. 3°C to 4°C 740GtCO2 4°C to 6°C ~1600GtCO2 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2018
  16. 16. … alternatively … it’s all about pies …
  17. 17. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … we have a set global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever …
  18. 18. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … we have a set global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever …
  19. 19. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … we have a set global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever …
  20. 20. To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise … 650GtCO2 (from 2020 & from energy only) we have a set global carbon pie i.e. total CO2 that can be emitted from now to forever …
  21. 21. … this needs to be split equitably amongst all of the world’s nations To limit warming to a 1.5-2°C rise …
  22. 22. What is a fair slice (carbon budget) for the EU?
  23. 23. Of the EU carbon budget …
  24. 24. … how much should the UK get?
  25. 25. … in terms of numbers The UK’s fair Paris 2°C carbon budget for energy is ~2.8 to 3.7GtCO2 … for 2020 to 2100 & beyond* i.e. <9 years of current emissions* *includes aviation & shipping
  26. 26. … from budgets to mitigation rates
  27. 27.  Rapidly ramp up mitigation to 10-15% p.a.  A total reduction of around 70-80% by 2030  ~fully decarbonised energy by around 2035-40 Headline mitigation for UK’s Paris commitment
  28. 28. ‘Fair’ 2°C pathways for the UK Why so different to the CCC: 3 key reasons 1) Their analysis is for net-zero by 2050 – i.e. still emitting ~40MtCO2 in 2050 … ours is based on real-zero CO2 i.e. no emissions from energy by around 2035 2) They rely on planetary-scale negative emission technologies – i.e. >50MtCO2/yr by 2050 … we exclude reliance on future generations deploying such fledgling technologies 3) They ignore equity, allocating a disproportionate slice of the Paris budget to the UK … we embed an explicit equity dimension
  29. 29. the Car sector
  30. 30.  We’ve established a fair 1.5-2°C budget for the UK  There are different ways of allocating this across the UK - by region (e.g. Scotland, Wales, Greater Manchester) - by individual (personal carbon allowance for adults) - by sector (aviation, shipping … cars)  All have their relative merits and drawbacks Dividing the UK carbon budget
  31. 31. For today, our focus is on a Carbon Budget for cars …& assuming all sectors have a ‘fair’ proportion of the UK budget
  32. 32. we estimate a maximum budget for the car sector of: ~720MtCO2 … for 2020 onwards i.e. 9 years of current emissions* For today, our focus is on a Carbon Budget for cars
  33. 33. But the DfT & the CCC hugely privilege aviation Allocating ~40% of the UK’s Paris-compliant budget to aviation
  34. 34. … reducing the car budget to ~490MtCO2 … for 2020 onwards (& for the N8 region, between 23 & 38% of this) i.e. 6 years of current emissions or 14% mitigation starting Jan 2020
  35. 35. What does this imply for the car sector?
  36. 36.  Immediate new car standards to <100gCO2/km … tightened at 5-10% each year  Complete transition to EV (or v.low CO2 alternatives) by 2030-2035  Shift to very low carbon electricity by 2030-35 (~8 to 50gCO2/kWh) … for a 1.5-2°C future .. even then, we still need a rapid reduction in vehicle-km (~40- 60%?)i.e. stringent demand management is a pre-requisite of Paris!
  37. 37. And if this is all too challenging …
  38. 38. … well we should have acted earlier!
  39. 39. … insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Thus far we have chosen to bequeath our own children the consequences of 30 years of such insanity. As Einstein(?) noted: @KevinClimat
  40. 40. 1) what can we not continue doing? 2) what do we need to do differently? 3) What key research questions remain? … & so to today’s workshop @KevinClimat With a focus on transport in the North of England ... & if we are to deliver on our Paris commitments
  41. 41. Twitter: @KevinClimate Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy & Climate Change Thanks for listening

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