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Economics, Genomics, Informatics and
Demographics
Professor Ian Cumming OBE,
Chief Executive
www.hee.nhs.uk
• ‘Health is all about people. Beyond the glittering surface of
modern technology, the core space of every health care
system is occupied by the unique encounter between one set
of people who need services and another who have been
entrusted to deliver them’
Health professionals for a new century [first published in the Lancet], 2010
• HEE exists for one reason: to improve the quality of care
delivered to patients. Through our Local Education and
Training Boards (LETBs), we ensure that our workforce has
the right skills, values and behaviours, in the right numbers, at
the right time and in the right place.
Our purpose
www.hee.nhs.uk
• Workforce Planning
• Attracting and recruiting the right people to
the posts we have identified
• Commissioning excellent education and
training
• Lifelong investment in people
We don’t work alone – we have many key partners
including other ALBs, HEIs, Regulators,
Professional Bodies and the DH
Our core functions
www.hee.nhs.uk
Transforming the workforce
“If you always do what you’ve always
done, you’ll always get what you’ve
always got.”
Henry Ford (1863 – 1947)
www.hee.nhs.uk
HEE’s roles and responsibilities
Workforce
Planning NHS
Careers
Recruiting for
values and
behaviours into
education and
the workforce
Commissioning
undergraduate and
postgraduate
education (numbers
and content)
Education, training
and development
strategy for the non-
professionally
qualified workforce
Leadership
of CPD
£4.9bn per annum =
£10,000 per minute
159,000 students directly or
indirectly funded by HEE
www.hee.nhs.uk
• Circa 13 years to train a consultant / 3
years for a nurse
• We invest £4.8b in education and training,
making expensive assumptions about
future health care models
• If we are wrong, under-supply could
result in unmet need; over-supply means
an unemployed workforce & wasted
resources
• If we make wrong decisions we risk
locking the service into outdated models
of care
• We need a strategic framework to guide
our investments in the future
Why a 15 year strategic framework?
www.hee.nhs.uk
• ‘Computers in the future will weigh no more than 1.5 tons’
(popular mechanics 1949)
• ‘We don’t like their sound and guitar music is on the way out’
(Decca recording company re: The Beatles 1962)
• Heavier than air flying machines are impossible (Lord Kelvin
1895)
• Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction (Prof
Pierre Pachet, Prof of Physiology 1872)
Looking to the future
© Ian Cumming
www.hee.nhs.uk
Social, political, economic
and environmental
www.hee.nhs.uk
How can state funded healthcare respond
to economic challenges?
www.hee.nhs.uk
Genomics
www.hee.nhs.uk
• 43% using internet
to access health
information
• New ways of
predicting,
preventing,
diagnosing and
treating some
conditions
• How can we ensure
our staff have the
skills to respond to
and adopt new
research,
technology and
innovation, so that
patients can reap
the benefits?
Informatics
www.hee.nhs.uk
Demographics
DEMAND (Patients)
•More of us: UK population
set to grow by 7% by 2022
•More elderly: number of
people >85 to increase from
1.4m to 2.4m by 2037
•Live longer: In 1948, 48%
died before 65. At least one
third of people born today
will live to 100
•Greater care needs:
People >65 with care needs
projected to increase by
60%
SUPPLY (staff)
•More women in the
workforce: In 2012,
55% of medical students
were women.
•Older workforce:
Average age of
workforce in 2023 = 47.
•Patterns of working
are changing: Currently
fewer than 30% of NHS
employees are part time.
www.hee.nhs.uk
So our best chance of success is to base our long-term workforce
strategic framework on the anticipated needs of future patients.
Global drivers of
change
Future patients Future workforce
Framework 15
www.hee.nhs.uk
The future workforce
So what kind of workforce
will be required if we are to
respond to the drivers of
change and meet the
predicted need of future
patients?
www.hee.nhs.uk
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two
years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
Don’t let yourself be pulled into inaction.”
Bill Gates
We must be bold and brave…
www.hee.nhs.uk
Too
cautious
Sometimes Jim I
think you are just
TOO cautious
about life…
www.hee.nhs.uk
For further enquiries
Visit: www.hee.nhs.uk
Email: hee.enquiries@nhs.net
Twitter: @NHS_HealthEdEng

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The Inaugural AHCS Congress lecture: Economics, Genomics, Informatics and Demographics (Ian Cumming)

  • 1. Economics, Genomics, Informatics and Demographics Professor Ian Cumming OBE, Chief Executive
  • 2. www.hee.nhs.uk • ‘Health is all about people. Beyond the glittering surface of modern technology, the core space of every health care system is occupied by the unique encounter between one set of people who need services and another who have been entrusted to deliver them’ Health professionals for a new century [first published in the Lancet], 2010 • HEE exists for one reason: to improve the quality of care delivered to patients. Through our Local Education and Training Boards (LETBs), we ensure that our workforce has the right skills, values and behaviours, in the right numbers, at the right time and in the right place. Our purpose
  • 3. www.hee.nhs.uk • Workforce Planning • Attracting and recruiting the right people to the posts we have identified • Commissioning excellent education and training • Lifelong investment in people We don’t work alone – we have many key partners including other ALBs, HEIs, Regulators, Professional Bodies and the DH Our core functions
  • 4. www.hee.nhs.uk Transforming the workforce “If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got.” Henry Ford (1863 – 1947)
  • 5. www.hee.nhs.uk HEE’s roles and responsibilities Workforce Planning NHS Careers Recruiting for values and behaviours into education and the workforce Commissioning undergraduate and postgraduate education (numbers and content) Education, training and development strategy for the non- professionally qualified workforce Leadership of CPD £4.9bn per annum = £10,000 per minute 159,000 students directly or indirectly funded by HEE
  • 6. www.hee.nhs.uk • Circa 13 years to train a consultant / 3 years for a nurse • We invest £4.8b in education and training, making expensive assumptions about future health care models • If we are wrong, under-supply could result in unmet need; over-supply means an unemployed workforce & wasted resources • If we make wrong decisions we risk locking the service into outdated models of care • We need a strategic framework to guide our investments in the future Why a 15 year strategic framework?
  • 7. www.hee.nhs.uk • ‘Computers in the future will weigh no more than 1.5 tons’ (popular mechanics 1949) • ‘We don’t like their sound and guitar music is on the way out’ (Decca recording company re: The Beatles 1962) • Heavier than air flying machines are impossible (Lord Kelvin 1895) • Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction (Prof Pierre Pachet, Prof of Physiology 1872) Looking to the future © Ian Cumming
  • 9. www.hee.nhs.uk How can state funded healthcare respond to economic challenges?
  • 11. www.hee.nhs.uk • 43% using internet to access health information • New ways of predicting, preventing, diagnosing and treating some conditions • How can we ensure our staff have the skills to respond to and adopt new research, technology and innovation, so that patients can reap the benefits? Informatics
  • 12. www.hee.nhs.uk Demographics DEMAND (Patients) •More of us: UK population set to grow by 7% by 2022 •More elderly: number of people >85 to increase from 1.4m to 2.4m by 2037 •Live longer: In 1948, 48% died before 65. At least one third of people born today will live to 100 •Greater care needs: People >65 with care needs projected to increase by 60% SUPPLY (staff) •More women in the workforce: In 2012, 55% of medical students were women. •Older workforce: Average age of workforce in 2023 = 47. •Patterns of working are changing: Currently fewer than 30% of NHS employees are part time.
  • 13. www.hee.nhs.uk So our best chance of success is to base our long-term workforce strategic framework on the anticipated needs of future patients. Global drivers of change Future patients Future workforce Framework 15
  • 14. www.hee.nhs.uk The future workforce So what kind of workforce will be required if we are to respond to the drivers of change and meet the predicted need of future patients?
  • 15. www.hee.nhs.uk “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t let yourself be pulled into inaction.” Bill Gates We must be bold and brave…
  • 16. www.hee.nhs.uk Too cautious Sometimes Jim I think you are just TOO cautious about life…
  • 17. www.hee.nhs.uk For further enquiries Visit: www.hee.nhs.uk Email: hee.enquiries@nhs.net Twitter: @NHS_HealthEdEng