risk analysis

1. Risk AnalysisRisk Analysis

2. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
 Risk analysisRisk analysis – identifying, evaluating and– identifying, evaluating and
comparing risks, deciding how much risk iscomparing risks, deciding how much risk is
acceptable and finding affordable ways toacceptable and finding affordable ways to
reduce itreduce it

Risk assessmentRisk assessment – identifying hazards,– identifying hazards,
evaluating their risksevaluating their risks

Comparative risk analysisComparative risk analysis – ranking risks– ranking risks

Risk managementRisk management – options, decisions about– options, decisions about
reducing or eliminatingreducing or eliminating

Risk communicationRisk communication – informing decision– informing decision
makers and the publicmakers and the public

3. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS

4. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS

5. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
 Number of deaths per year in the world from variousNumber of deaths per year in the world from various
causes. Parentheses show deaths in terms of thecauses. Parentheses show deaths in terms of the
number of fully loaded 200-passenger jumbo jetsnumber of fully loaded 200-passenger jumbo jets
crashing every day of the year with no survivors.crashing every day of the year with no survivors.

6. RISKRISK
ANALYSISANALYSIS
 Comparisons ofComparisons of
risks people facerisks people face
expressed inexpressed in
terms of shorterterms of shorter
average lifeaverage life
spanspan
 Greatest risk isGreatest risk is
povertypoverty

7. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
 Harmful effectsHarmful effects
that result fromthat result from
living in povertyliving in poverty

8. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
 Annual deaths in the U.S. from tobaccoAnnual deaths in the U.S. from tobacco
use and other causes in 2012.use and other causes in 2012.

9. Case Study: Death From SmokingCase Study: Death From Smoking
 Most preventable major cause of sufferingMost preventable major cause of suffering
and premature deathand premature death

Killed 100 million people during the 20Killed 100 million people during the 20thth
centurycentury

Could be linked to increased dementia andCould be linked to increased dementia and
Alzheimer’s diseaseAlzheimer’s disease
 Nicotine – additiveNicotine – additive
 What are the effects of passive smokingWhat are the effects of passive smoking
(secondhand smoke)?(secondhand smoke)?

10. Case Study: Death From SmokingCase Study: Death From Smoking
 How to reduce smoking:How to reduce smoking:

TaxesTaxes

Classify and regulate nicotineClassify and regulate nicotine

Bans on smoking in public placesBans on smoking in public places

EducationEducation

11. RISK ANALYSISRISK ANALYSIS
 Estimating risks from using manyEstimating risks from using many
technologies is difficult due to unpredictabilitytechnologies is difficult due to unpredictability
of human behavior, chance and sabotageof human behavior, chance and sabotage
 Reliability of a system is multiplicative:Reliability of a system is multiplicative:

If a nuclear power plant is 95% reliable andIf a nuclear power plant is 95% reliable and
human reliability is 75%, then the overallhuman reliability is 75%, then the overall
reliability is (0.95 X 0.75 = 0.71) 71%reliability is (0.95 X 0.75 = 0.71) 71%

12. Perceiving RiskPerceiving Risk
 Most individuals evaluate the relative riskMost individuals evaluate the relative risk
they face based on:they face based on:

Fear of unknownFear of unknown

Degree of controlDegree of control

Whether risk is catastrophicWhether risk is catastrophic

Optimism bias – belief risk applies to othersOptimism bias – belief risk applies to others

Instant gratificationInstant gratification
 Sometimes misleading information, denialSometimes misleading information, denial
and irrational fears can cloud judgmentand irrational fears can cloud judgment
 Ex: 1 in 281 million chance of shark attack,Ex: 1 in 281 million chance of shark attack,
but 1 in 50 motorcyclists will diebut 1 in 50 motorcyclists will die

13. Becoming Better at Risk AnalysisBecoming Better at Risk Analysis
 Recognize everything is riskyRecognize everything is risky
 Compare risks to know how it ranksCompare risks to know how it ranks
 Determine how much risk you are willing toDetermine how much risk you are willing to
acceptaccept
 Evaluate actual risk involved and tune outEvaluate actual risk involved and tune out
news that exaggerates risk (ex: cable news)news that exaggerates risk (ex: cable news)
 Concentrate on evaluating and carefullyConcentrate on evaluating and carefully
making important lifestyle choices – reducemaking important lifestyle choices – reduce
risks over which you have some controlrisks over which you have some control