Introduction and welcome from DecarboN8, CUSP & ZCCP
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Monika Bรผscher, Lancaster University Tim Gale, ZCCP Liz Mullis, CUSP @ DecarboN8 Cumbria: Mobility Transformation 2037 Symposium (22 November 2022, Carlisle)
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Introduction and welcome from DecarboN8, CUSP & ZCCP
- 1. Introduction
- 3. Mobility Transformation: Weโve done it before Looking back at these earlier historical periods, it would seem that change depends - in the first instance, at least - on maximum diversification. Lynne Pearce 2019
- 4. Image Source: UK Gov Future of Mobility 2019 Image Source: University of Leeds Mobility Transformation: We can do it again
- 5. Image Source: UK Gov Future of Mobility 2019 Image Source: UK Gov Living in the City
- 11. Image Source: UK Gov Living in the City
- 13. Our Future Towns Project Dale Harrow, Cyriel Diels, Dan Phillips, Royal College of Arts
- 14. https://zerocarboncumbria.co.uk/ Tim Gale โ ZCC Partnership Manager
- 16. Things we need to do to get there Different pathways โ do we know the way? Direction? Are we lost? The place we want to be The place we need to be
- 17. What does a decarbonised future look like? How do we realise & communicate the co-benefits? What can we do differently? Travel and Mobility Future
- 18. Past built around the private carโฆโฆโฆโฆFuture built around theโฆโฆ? A new Vision?
- 19. CUSP โ Liz Mullis
- 20. Utopia as method โฆ facilitates genuinely holistic thinking about possible futures, combined with ... it requires us to think about our conceptions of human needs and human flourishing โฆ Ruth Levitas 2013: xi
- 21. Our live illustrators: Nifty Fox Creative
- 22. Programme
Editor's Notes
- Welcomeย ย Emergency Exits no fire alarmย , toilets ย This is a jointly organized event DecarboN8 (EPSRC) me, Shona, Tina, Greg online, ZCCP Tim Gale, Cumbria Development Education Centre Laura Goad, Cumbria Action with Communities โย Lorrainneย Smyth โ just a few of the people involvedย ย ย Thanks to our funders, the EPSRC & the Festival of Social Sciences which sponsors the DecarboN8 Dialogues in the middle of the dayย ย Thank you People Firstย ย Thank you Laura and Chris โ creative facilitators who will be drawing and infusing some visual reasoning and creativity into our discussions โ great documentation, but also so much more, supporting a visual way of collaborative discovery and dialogueย Thank you all for coming โ quite a group!ย Fantastic keynotes, fantastic talks, but most of all fantastic thinkers and makers in the roomย
- Look around you and imagine a window into the virtual extension of this room with another 60 people from x different countries.ย ย We have an awesome gathering of people, Community groups, representatives from existing and new local authorities, companies, researchers, Youth Climate Group leaders, a group of school kids will join us later, we are quite a diverse group, too. Thank you for coming, this mix of expertise, experience, and perspective is really important. This is a day for creative knowledge exchange, networking, collaboration. We will work hard, but in a creative way, and we hope you will enjoy the day and find it productive.ย ย The purpose today is to build visions and pathways into desirable futures for Cumbriaย ย ย And we will take a place-based and connected approach: How can we decarbonize Cumbria to help save the planet? What can we learn from other places? How are we connected to other places? and what lessons from here might be useful elsewhere?ย ย Tim, Liz, Laura and I are going to kick us off with someย thoughts aboutย past, future and present of mobility . Iโll start ย
- Weโve done it before . ย My colleague Lynne Pearce showed me this book cover. It shows a moment in a radical mobility transformation. The automobility system where every household has one or more very expensive lumps of metal parked on the drive or the street for 95 or 96% of the time is less than a 100 years old. ย Only seven generations ago, in 1898, delegates from across the globe gathered in New York for the worldโs first international urban planning conference. One topic dominated the discussion: horse manure. The situation seemed dire. In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. A public health and sanitation crisis of almost unimaginable dimensions loomed. And no possible solution could be conceived. After all, the horse had been the dominant mode of transportation for thousands of years.ย ย Since then, we have lived through a mobility revolution where land-use, employment, education, food, and consumption patterns, whole ways of life have radically changed.
- Looking back, the transformation of that historical horse-power based mobility system started with maximumย diversification, Lynne found in her analysis. ย Looking at what is happening around us now, at least in our imagination, we see diversification: walking, biking, cargobikes, delivery drones in the air and on the ground, rail, autonomous vehicles.ย ย
- Scenarios of future mobility are blooming, and many of you here today will have thought deeply about mobility futures, some of you may have worked on making scenarios, from different perspectives โ infrastructure in the Cumbria Transportย Infrastructuctureย plan, integrated transport for Transport for the North, cycling focused forย Sustrans, autonomousย vehicleย focused for Innovate UK, theย mobility futures the young people shared with us for this event. There will be many more scenarios than these that many of you will know about. That's a fantastic starting point.ย What do they look like in Cumbria?
- Zero Carbon Cumbria asked my colleagues and me to help them imagine that, and we did an online workshop with the transport group. The results can give us an imagination springboard for today.
- In very broad brushstrokes, these mobility futures unfolded a future Cumbria where remote places flourish with more jobs in tourism, land management, green energy.
- Where local plan-based food doesnโt have to travel far and people come โ car-free โ to see a shining example of low carbon connectivity
- Where itโs easy to leave the car behind
- We had really rich discussions, which mapped out into five or six different kinds of futures:ย ย ย 1 Mobility as utility or commonsย recognisesย that mobility is an essential human value. In the words of one of our Youth leaders โMobility gives us a sense of freedom and connection that we wouldnโt be able to have [otherwise]โย It's about access to education, jobs, culture, nature, friends, family, a diverse big world. The mobility commons scenario foresees multi-modal mobilities, paid for with a monthly subscription like water or energy. Rethinking mobility in that way will make it more precious and more equal and low carbon, maybe, in part through demand reduction.ย ย 2 The high tech scenario puts all eggs into the basket ofย decarbonisedย energy. We'll move just as much, but with autonomous electric vehicles using batteries powered from wind, solar, nuclear. The automation also reduces congestion.ย ย 3 The third scenario sees a radical change in mobility culture. We seriously fall out of love with the car, life becomes muchย muchย more local, we walk, cycle, grow our food locally, work online.ย ย 4 In all the optimism, we also discovered quite significant disagreements and inequalities, and one of the scenarios must be one where we cannot find ways to deal with them. A divided Cumbria in a divided world might end up with people leftย bhindย and literally stuck,ย immobilisedย in poverty, while the elites still drive and fly and receive delivered goods.ย ย 5 And the way COP negotiations are going, we may end up in a world where extreme weather and 2.4 or 2.7 or even higher warming will shape mobility futures. Many of you willย remebreย Stormย desmondย in 2015 and how broken bridges and flooding affected the county.ย ย 6 Finally, our futures might not be one or the other of these scenarios, but all of them mixed together, maybe one a stronger force than another.ย We canโt know our futures
- And things could go pretty horribly wrong, with resource wars, automation hell that makes humans redundant and inhumane ethical algorithms, pollution, destruction of nature and compassionate society
- We can't know our futures, but as this Cone of uncertainty from the Transport for the North Scenario report shows, we can discuss what we think is preferable and try and find ways of making that happen. That's what we want to do today.
- Express our hopes and fears.ย In many discussions about net-zero compatible mobility futures peoples say oh โ but society isn't ready for that, people won't use public transport, they won't give up their cars. But we rarely ask why? We don't ask How ready are these mobility innovations FOR society?ย How easy is it for people to change their mobility patterns? How can we change the mobility SYSTEM to make it easier for people to connect and be mobile in different ways? Polls show that the majority of people think climate change already affects them or will do in the future, they are worried, they want to do something about it, and they want governments to act. Let's take that commitment and imagine: How much better could people's lives be?ย What can we do to help build these aspirations for better mobile lives?
- Physical Digitalย Social Prosper & thrive Diversity, COMPLEX context Maximiseย the huge potential, fromย Herdyย to Nuclear Mobility at its heartย
- Taking departure from these ideas we want to work with you on making futures. We will take a 'backcasting approach', developing stories of futures and telling the stories of how we might get there, mapping routes towards them, signposting key events or changes, discovering how the meanings of growth, work, education, all the components of good life human and non-human might change.ย Laura and Chris are pivotal in this approach โฆย ย
- We have fantastic speakers and we hope that the information and inspiration they will provide will feed rich and interesting disucssions and a creative process of making futures Quite a complex day โ but we have a plan and will guide you through it,ย youโllย be gently and kindly herded. Inย broad brushstrokes, after this introduction, there are 5 parts Inspiration Round 1 โ Becky, Dmitry, then ZCCP Pecha Kucha DecarboN8 Dialogues โ Make Future Scenarios LUNCH Inspiration Round 2 โ DecarboN8 Backcasting Next Steps/Close ย Weโllย be making tangible outputs throughout the day, through your work, and with the help of Laura and Chris, which will also create a lot of input for day 2 โ whereย we will review, reflect and make an almost instant journal to capture some of the highlights from today. We willย share that with you as soon as we can after the event.ย Hopefullyย next week. And then hopefullyย weโllย be able toย share this more widely.ย Ready to go โฆ Over to Rebecca Willis and then Dmitry