5. Contents
• Sports Performance Analysis
• Performance Indicators
• Categorization of sport contests
• Modeling of Sports Contests
• Skill importance in Volleyball.
List of
Contents
•Performance
Analysis
•Performance
Indicators
•Categorization
of Sport
contests
•Modeling of
sport
contests
•Skill
importance
in Men’s
Volleyball
6. • SPA is the investigation of actual sports performance
or performance in training.
• Main reason for SPA is to develop an understanding of
sports that can inform decision making
to enhance sport performance
to improve coaching
• Also non coaching uses of SPA, e.g. media or judging.
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Concept
•Aims
•Procedure
•Indicators
8. • Technical Evaluation
• Tactical Evaluation
• Analysis of movement
• Coach & player education
• Modeling using match analysis dtbase
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Concept
•Aims
•Procedure
•Indicators
9. • Data gathering
– During or after a performance
• Analysis of data
– During or after a performance
• Communication of information depending on:
– the relevant audience (athletes, coaches, judges,
media)
– the aim of analysis (athlete’s feedback, decision
making, evaluation from judges)
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Concept
•Aims
•Procedure
•Indicators
10. Performance indicators are variables that:
– are valid measurements of important aspects of
sport performance
– can be described in an objective measurement
procedure
– have a known scale of measurement
– are valid means of interpretation
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Concept
•Aims
•Procedure
•Indicators
11. • Performance indicators express result or
quality of performance
• SPA is focused on results. Evaluation done on
the basis of result and not of quality of
movement.
• Indicators are expressed in ratios for easier
comparison across players, teams, champs.
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Performance
Indicators
•Technical
Evaluation
•Tactical
Evaluation
•Profile
12. • Concerned with how well skills are performed
in sports
• Positive/negative or winner/error ratios
• All the skills are not black or white.
• The degree of difficulty of situation is not
taken into consideration
• Ordinal Scales (usually 3 to 7 levels).
– validity (More often face & content validity)
– reliability(reproducibility of the measurement)
• Important for practitioners (to monitor small but practically
important changes)
• For researchers (to quantify such changes in controlled
trials with samples of reasonable size)
– Pearson’s r, Chi-square, % error and Kappa test were used.
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Performance
Indicators
•Technical
Evaluation
•Tactical
Evaluation
•Profile
13. Nadal vs Federer
• Nadal
• 6 aces
• Mean of Top8: 6
άσσοι
• Mean recent
matches: 8 aces
• Federer
• 12 aces
• Mean of Top8: 6
άσσοι
• Mean recent
matches: 14 aces
Is the mean the proper measure of central tendency;
• Nadal (6,6,6,6,6,6,20)
•Federer (3,3,16,17,18,19,22)
•Alternative mode, median.
Performance
Analysis of
Sports
•Performance
Indicators
•Technical
Evaluation
•Tactical
Evaluation
•Profile
22. • Time dependent • Common playing area.
Invasion
• Score dependent
• Innings dependent
• Different playing area
• Change offense/defense per
period
•Categorization
of Sport
contests
•Sport
Contests
•Invasion
games
•Net Wall
games
•Striking
Fielding
games
24. Invasion
Games
Goal Throwing
Games
Try Scoring
Games
Goal Striking
Games
Basketball Handball
Rugby/
Football
Soccer HockeyWaterpolo
•Categorization
of Sport
contests
•Sport
Contests
•Invasion
games
•Net Wall
games
•Striking
Fielding
games
25. Net / Wall
games
Net
Games
Wall
Games
No Volley
Games
Bounce and
Volley Games
No Bounce
Games
Bounce and
Volley Games
Squash
Table
Tennis
Tennis Volleyball
Badminton
•Categorization
of Sport
contests
•Sport
Contests
•Invasion
games
•Net Wall
games
•Striking
Fielding
games
26. Striking and Fielding Games
Wicket games Base Running Games
Cricket Baseball Softball
•Categorization
of Sport
contests
•Sport
Contests
•Invasion
games
•Net Wall
games
•Striking
Fielding
games
27. • Modeling in Net/Wall games is easier because
of hierarchical structure.
– In Invasion games it is more complex because of unexpected
change of ball’s possession and the unstable chronological
sequential order of the tactical actions.
• Each action starts with a serve.
• No draw. Every action has a winner and a
loser.
• Outcomes & Sport tactics can be carefully
analyzed on the basis of probability.
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
28. • Skilled actions refer to the ability of the
action to reach a positive outcome.
• I.i.d. Assumption
– A team/or a player is not influenced:
• if the previous point was won or lost (independent)-
independence-
• If the current point is of particular importance, eg. Match
point (identical distribution)- stationarity-.
• Is i.i.d. assumption a logical one for net/wall games?
– Hot hand or strike
– Back to the wall.
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
29. • Stochastic (Markov) processes:2fold
investigation:
– Scoring Structure: Winner/error profile
– Sport tactic: shot response/sequence profile
• Use of the outcome – the winning of a point-
as the unit of the probability analysis.
• Use of Markov chain on the calculation of
probabilities to win a game, a set or a match.
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
30. SRV
+
-
Tennis
1-p
p
p= player A wins when serving
1-p= player A loses when serving
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
31. SRV
+
-
Tennis
1-p
p
p= player A wins when serving
1-p= player A loses when serving
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
34. SRV
Team
A
+
-
SRV
Team
B
+
-
Volleyball
p= team A wins when serving
1-p=team A loses when serving
q= team B wins when serving
1-q= team B loses when serving
1-p
p
1-q
q
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
35. SRV
Team
A
+
-
SRV
Team
B
+
-
Volleyball
p= team A wins when serving
1-p=team A loses when serving
q= team B wins when serving
1-q= team B loses when serving
1-p
p
1-q
q
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
37. • Shot selection behaviors and outcomes for racket sports
• Sequence profile and outcomes for Volleyball
• Unit of analysis is the shot behavior / sequence of specific
skills that leads to the outcome
• Probs of the analysis are obtained from data collected from
observation.
• Game is described by Categorical states strictly defined by
individual skills.
• Creation of a transition matrix. Elements of the matrix
express the probability of moving from one state (skill) to
another state (skill) and to a +/-point.
Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
38. Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
Game
action
Stroke
position
Stroke
Direction
Stroke
technique
Receive Forehand
Short
Forehand
Topspin
Neutral Backhand
Long
Forehand
Drive
Offense Pivot
Short
backhand
Smash
Defense
Backhand
turn
Long
Backhand
Flip
Control
Close to
body
Chop
Net Ball
Chopping
Short… 9
Serve
Outcome
Point/
fault
Next
rally
In alternative
order between
the two payers
Stroke
39. Modeling of
sport games
•Winner
profile
•Simulation
•Tennis
Volleyball
•Shot
response/
sequence
profile
•Table tennis
•Volleyball
•Transition
matrix
•Skills
importance
Game
action
Stroke
position
Stroke
Direction
Stroke
technique
Receive Forehand
Short
Forehand
Topspin
Neutral Backhand
Long
Forehand
Drive
Offense Pivot
Short
backhand
Smash
Defense
Backhand
turn
Long
Backhand
Flip
Control
Close to
body
Chop
Net Ball
Chopping
Short… 9
Serve
Outcome
Point/
fault
Next
rally
In alternative
order between
the two payers
Stroke
44. Method of analysis
• Most recent world Champion in Men (POLAND, 2014)
• Transition Matrix 59 X 62. Last two columns are
terminal moves (point + or point- ) for the team under
study.
• is the probability for a skill to end up in a point
after two subsequent game moves.
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
)|()|int()|int( 112
1,1
1 itktktt
n
kk
itti SYSYPSYpoYPSYpoYPP
iP
45. Method of analysis
Measure
• Importance score ( ). Measure of
impact & uncertainty for a skill
(Fellingham & Reese, 2004).
)|(
)|(
yPV
yPE
I
i
i
i
Posterior mean
Standard deviation
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
iI
46. Method of analysis
Assumptions
• 1st assumption: Scoring for each skill
is i.i.d.
• 2nd assumption: Patterns are first
order Markov chains.
)|int()|int( 121 ittitti SYpoYPSYpoYPP
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
47. • Simple multinomial model to estimate
transition & success probabilities
• For each skill we assume multinomial
likelihood
)|( 1 itktik SYSYP
ik
i
y
ikMk
ninininininii yyyyf
),,,...|,,,...( 2,1,,12,1,,1
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
Method of analysis
Model
ik
48. Method of analysis
Prior distribution
• We use a conjugate Dirichlet prior distribution of
the type
• Prior estimations from expert coaches. Low
weight to experts/coaches opinion. Multiply 0.1X
Ni, (10% additional of data points).
• All success probabilities & importance scores
were calculated using a Monte Carlo scheme of
10.000 iterations.
1
)|(
k
i
kMk
ii Af
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
49. Skill
Importance
score
Success
Probability
QMR
Pass in Float 5 (1) 27.6 0.581
Pass in Jump 6 (2) 27.4 0.589
Pass in Float 6 (3) 27.2 0.569
Pass in Jump 5 (4) 27.0 0.593
Pass in Jump 4 (5) 24.9 0.548
Pass in Float 4 (6) 22.8 0.539
Attack 1 MF
quick (7)21.9 0.704
Srv Float 3 (8) 17.8 0.332
Attack 1 LS quick (9) 17.2 0.557
………………………………………………..…………………………………
Attack 2
MB quick (22) 10.2 0.717 1.320
Attack 2
MF quick (31) 7.5 0.738 1.258
Attack 1 STR (41) 4.8 0.722 2.093
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
0.05
0.95
M Q
QMR
Q M
0.05
0.95
M Q
QMR
Q M
51. • Introduction of a new supplementary index (QMR) to
estimate Volleyball skills.
• Serve:
• is a disadvantage for top level’s men volleyball.
Increased difficulty of serve does not connect linearly
to the outcome.
• Pass:
– The penalty for overpass (level 2) is higher than for the
pass off the net (level 3).
– Pass level 6 has no advantage compared to pass level 5
• Setting & attack in complex 1:
– Quick tempo is more important than high tempo.
– Importance of back row attack
– All levels of organized attack 1 have higher importance
score than attacks 2.
• Setting & attack in complex 2:
– Set out of system is most important.
– Quick tempo better than high tempo sets
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
52. for coaches
• Serve absolute hard or safe. No errors
without aces.
• Complex 1 (side out point) is very
important.
• Complex 2 (break point):
– Better preparation of unpredictable situations
(attack out of system).
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
53. • Improvement of model
– Use of past data of team’s performance as
prior information.
– Standardized team profile.
– On line use.
– Indications for coaches’ decisions during
match.
for researchers
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
54. Thank you for your
attention!
Skills
Importance
in Men’s
Volleyball.
•Data
•Method of
analysis
•Results
•Conclusions
•Suggestions
•The End
