Africa's Rising Private Debt: is it sustainable? This is the presentation from David Robinson, IMF's Deputy Director for the Africa Department to the APPG for Africa on 5th November 2018. The roundtable was also presented to by Jesse Griffiths, Head of Programme Development Strategy and Finance at ODI. See ODI's briefing here- https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/12491.pdf Chair: Lord Chidgey (Co-Chair of the APPG for Africa)

1. IMF | African Department 1
UK Parliament:
Africa’s Debt
NOVEMBER 5, 2018
David Robinson (drobinson2@imf.org)
Deputy Director, AFR IMF

2. IMF | African Department 2
Long-term perspective—the sustained period of rising
incomes and improved social outcomes has stalled…
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Sub-Saharan Africa Real GDP per Capita
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
PPP,2011internationaldollars
2

3. All Countries Have Debt
3Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Total Public Sector Debt Total Public Sector Debt to Population
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

4. In SSA a Pick Up in Debt AND Debt Service
4Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Public Sector Debt Sub-Saharan Africa: Interest Payments
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

5. Increased Number of Countries in Debt Distress…
5Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Debt Risk Status for PRGT Eligible Low-income
Developing Countries
Countries at High Risk or in Debt Distress: Cumulative
Contribution from Debt Decomposition
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

6. Mixed progress on stabilizing debt, but composition
of adjustment can be improved
6
Average Fiscal Balance and Public Debt (percent of GDP)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Fiscal Developments 2013–17
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

7. 7
1995 2016
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
■ Greater than 18 percent
■ Between 13 and 18 percent
■ Less than 13 percent
■ Data not available
Domestic revenue mobilization—capturing the
returns on public investment—needs to advance

8. Growth is recovering, but is too low over the
medium-term.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
8
Real GDP Growth Real GDP per Capita Growth
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.

9. Net Private Capital Flows have increased…
9
3% of GDP
1% of GDP
$5 bn
$25 bn
$60 bn
1995
2007
2017
2015–17
SSA
EME

10. SSA has attracted more Private Capital
10Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Sub-Saharan Africa and Emerging Markets: Net
Financial Flows
Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets: Sovereign Bond
Issuance
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.