12. Como reduzir as perdas causadas pelos sismos?
REAKT
(From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
Long-term
Hazard Mapping
Long-term
Forecasting
Short-term
Forecasting
Early Warning ShakeMaps
&
Rapid Loss
Aftershock
Forecasting
Decades Years
Days to
Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours
Minutes
to Days
Earthquake
13. Estimar os impactos dos sismos
Earthquake
ferent time scales of the
uake process
re of
by
REAL-
1. Fonte
2. Propagação
3. Sítio
4. Vulnerabilidade
& Inventário
REAKT
14. Sismologia em tempo real
Long-term
Hazard Mapping
Long-term
Forecasting
Short-term
Forecasting
Early Warning ShakeMaps
&
Rapid Loss
Aftershock
Forecasting
Decades Years
Days to
Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours
Minutes
to Days
Earthquake
REAKT
(From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
18. Shakemaps (5-7 min)
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
• ‘Ground Motion
Prediction Equations’
(propagação das
ondas sísmicas)
• Interpolação entre
estações
19. Antecipar o movimento do solo
Earthquake
ferent time scales of the
uake process
re of
by
REAL-
1. Fonte
2. Propagação
3. Sítio
4. Vulnerabilidade
& Inventário
REAKT
20. Estimativa de danos
PAGER
M 7.8, IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION
Origin Time: Tue 2013-04-16 10:44:20 UTC (15:14:20 local)
Location: 28.11
o
N 62.05
o
E Depth: 82 km
PAGER
Version 6
Estimated Fatalities Estimated Economic Losses
Created: 7 hours, 31 minutes after earthquake
Estimated Population Exposed to Earthquake Shaking
ESTIMATED POPULATION
EXPOSURE (k = x1000)
- -* - -* 135k* 2,600k* 1,682k 377k 2k 0 0
ESTIMATED MODIFIED
MERCALLI INTENSITY
PERCEIVED SHAKING Not felt Weak Light Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Violent Extreme
POTENTIAL
DAMAGE
Resistant
Structures
Vulnerable
Structures
none
none
none
none
none
none
V. Light
Light
Light
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate/Heavy
Moderate/Heavy
Heavy
Heavy
V. Heavy
V. Heavy
V. Heavy
*Estimated exposure only includes population within the map area.
Population Exposure population per ~1 sq. km from Landscan
Orange alert level for shaking-related fatalities.
Significant casualties are likely and the disaster
is potentially widespread. Past events with this
alert level have required a regional or national
level response.
Yellow alert level for economic losses. Some
damage is possible. Estimated economic losses
are less than 1% of GDP of the Islamic Republic
of Iran.
Structures:
Overall, the population in this region resides
in structures that are highly vulnerable to
earthquake shaking, though some resistant
structures exist. The predominant vulnerable
building types are adobe block and
unreinforced brick with timber floor
construction.
Historical Earthquakes (with MMI levels):
Date
(UTC)
Dist.
(km)
Mag. Max
MMI(#)
Shaking
Deaths
1989-12-07 389 5.9 VIII(127) 0
1994-02-23 339 6.1 VII(508) 6
2003-12-26 386 6.6 IX(70k) 26k
Recent earthquakes in this area have caused
secondary hazards such as landslides that
might have contributed to losses.
Selected City Exposure
from GeoNames.org
MMI City Population
VII Khash 70k
VI Zahedan 552k
VI Iranshahr 131k
VI Rudbar 11k
21. Sismologia em tempo real
Long-term
Hazard Mapping
Long-term
Forecasting
Short-term
Forecasting
Early Warning ShakeMaps
&
Rapid Loss
Aftershock
Forecasting
Decades Years
Days to
Minutes Seconds Minutes to Hours
Minutes
to Days
Earthquake
REAKT
(From an original figure of T. Jordan redrawn by S. Wiemer)
23. Aviso Antecipado
1.
As primeiras ondas (P)
têm menor amplitude.
2.
As primeiras ondas (P)
contêm informação sobre
a magnitude dos sismos.
Allen et al, 2003
41. Fast Earthquake W arnings
Email
SMS
Radio
Fax
Telefone
Civil
Protection
W arnings [ operator validation]
Delay after Origin Time: 3m40s
Delay after 1º record: 3m31s
Delay after minimum set of records (10): 2m43s
SeiscomP 2.6, SEISAN 8.1 (modified) and in-house software
Portugal: Hipocentro e Magnitude
Imagem cedida por F. Carrilho, IPMA
73. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
W-phase
20-50 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
75. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Mecanismo Focal
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
Falha finita
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
>20 min
> 2 hr
5-10 min
20 min – 10 hr
W-phase
20-50 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
93. Shakemaps
• Mapas de:
– PGA
– PGV
– PGD
– SA
– Intensidade
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
97. Sismologia
na era da comunicação digital
Susana Custódio
susana@fc.ul.pt
Kanamori,Nature1997
ESB, 23/Fev/2017
98. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?
1. Porque reduz os danos materiais e humanos.
es
ties receive the warnings
them with public address
Docomo, AU, Softbank)
receive them (47%)
iders serve
earthquake
location and
hazard
estimated
shaking in your
area
Aviso antecipado, Japão Tohoku 2011
Courtesy of Richard Allen, UC Berkeley
Shakemap, M4.3 LA
Worden et al., BSSA 2010
Shakemap Aviso Antecipado
99. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?
Bogota, Colombia, M6.2, 2015 Virginia, USA, M5.8, 2011
2. Porque queremos (e esperamos) saber
rapidamente o que se está a passar.
100. Porquê fazer sismologia em tempo real?
Ellsworth and Beroza
Science, 1995
3. Porque contribui para o avanço da ciência.
101. Qual a informação que temos disponível
em tempo real?
Ammon et al., SRL 2010
102. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
103. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
104. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
105. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
106. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Mecanismo Focal
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
5-10 min
20 min – 10 hr
W-phase
20-50 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
107. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Mecanismo Focal
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
Falha finita
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
>20 min
> 2 hr
5-10 min
20 min – 10 hr
W-phase
20-50 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
109. Sismo TO
Tempo
Redes Globais
Mecanismo Focal
Estimativa de danos
Sismo TO
Redes Regionais
Portugal
3 min 5 min
Falha finita
2 hr1 hr30 min15 min5 min
Hipocentro
5-15 min
< 1 min
Magnitude
5-20 min
2-3 min
30 min 1 hr15 min
5-7 min
5-20 min
Shakemaps
ShakeMap Manual DRAFT: Version 1.0 6/19/06
shows as a topographic low on the ShakeMap intensity Map (Figure 2.8) and second, the
focusing of strong motion to the southeast, the direction the earthquake rupture appears to have
propagated. The offset of the strongest shaking to the southeast from the epicenter, and the
amplification within the basin of sediments underlying Napa and along the northern shore of San
Pablo Bay are also clear on the map of instrumental intensity.
ShakeMap quality strong motion instrumentation coverage in the San Francisco Bay area has
also substantially improved because the 2000 Napa earthquake, so future earthquakes will have
substantially better station control.
TECHNICAL MANUAL 64 Recent Example ShakeMaps
W-phase
20-50 min
>20 min
> 2 hr
5-10 min
20 min – 10 hr
110. Aviso Antecipado
1.
As primeiras ondas (P)
têm menor amplitude.
2.
As primeiras ondas (P)
contêm informação sobre
a magnitude dos sismos.
Allen et al, 2003