New Energy Horizons                                                    Opportunities and Challenges      Validation of Sol...
Project Sponsors and Partners               New Energy Horizons                                         Opportunities and ...
TOPICS              New Energy Horizons                           Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND•   TECH...
PROJECT BACKGROUND                        New Energy Horizons                                       Opportunities and Chal...
CPUC High Penetration PV Program                        New Energy Horizons                                               ...
Sacramento Municipal Utility    District 100MW Feed-in-Tariff               New Energy Horizons                           ...
NDFD Grid, Primary & Secondary Sites      SMUD Service Territory          New Energy Horizons                             ...
Sacramento Municipal Utility District    Multi-forecaster Benchmarking                     New Energy Horizons            ...
TOPICS            New Energy Horizons                          Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL...
TECHNICAL BACKGROUND               New Energy Horizons                                Opportunities and Challenges•   Irra...
Irradiance Fundamentals                                   New Energy Horizons                                             ...
Irradiance Fundamentals                                           New Energy Horizons                                     ...
PV Power Simulation Fundamentals                                      New Energy Horizons                                 ...
Current Solar Forecasting Methods                New Energy Horizons                                              Opportun...
NEO Virtus Method for Day Ahead          Forecasting AC Power                                     New Energy Horizons     ...
TOPICS              New Energy Horizons                         Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICA...
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN                             New Energy Horizons                                               Opportun...
Primary & Secondary Irradiance   Monitoring Station Specifications      New Energy Horizons                               ...
Secondary Station Design & Fabrication                                             New Energy Horizons                    ...
Primary & Secondary Monitoring Stations                                             New Energy Horizons                   ...
Day Ahead Irradiance & PV Power      Forecast Validation                New Energy Horizons                               ...
Solar Forecasting Error Analysis                                                     New Energy Horizons                  ...
TOPICS                        New Energy Horizons                                      Opportunities and Challenges• PROJE...
PRELIMINARY RESULTS                   New Energy Horizons                                    Opportunities and Challenges•...
NEO’s Day Ahead Forecast vs. MeasuredOne SMUD FIT PV System 5/1/12 to 7/2/12                                              ...
NEO’s Day Ahead Forecast vs. Measured          PV Production (one system)                                                 ...
Unforeseen Issues, Lessons Learned                    New Energy Horizons                                                 ...
Overhead Wire Shading Anomalies                                                                                           ...
Global Network Calibration                                        New Energy Horizons                                     ...
TOPICS              New Energy Horizons                           Opportunities and Challenges•   PROJECT BACKGROUND•   TE...
ONGOING WORK                                New Energy Horizons                                          Opportunities and...
TOPICS              New Energy Horizons                           Opportunities and Challenges•   PROJECT BACKGROUND•   TE...
CONCLUSIONS                        New Energy Horizons                                          Opportunities and Challeng...
NEO Virtus Engineering, Inc.                  New Energy Horizons                                           Opportunities ...
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IEEE Power Energy Society 2012 Presentation - Validation of Forecasting technologies

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IEEE Power Energy Society 2012 Presentation - Validation of Forecasting technologies

  1. 1. New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges Validation of Solar PV Power Forecasting Methods for High Penetration Grid Integration IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting July 26, 2012 James Bing, NEO Virtus Engineering, Inc.Obadiah Bartholomy, Sacramento Municipal Utility District Pramod Krishnani, Belectric North America Inc.
  2. 2. Project Sponsors and Partners New Energy Horizons Opportunities and ChallengesCPUC CSI Solar RD&D Program www.calsolarresearch.ca.gov CSI RD&D Program Manager 2
  3. 3. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• CONCLUSIONS 3
  4. 4. PROJECT BACKGROUND New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• California Public Utilities Commission High Penetration PV Program• Sacramento Municipal Utility District 100MW Feed-in-Tariff• Parallel Research Effort (DOE FOA: Improving the Accuracy of Solar Forecasting) 4
  5. 5. CPUC High Penetration PV Program New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges • CPUC established CSI RD&D Program in 2007 – Allocated $50 million for research, development, demonstration and deployment (RD&D) projects to further the overall goals of the CSI Program – Adopted the “CSI RD&D Plan” • CSI RD&D Plan established: – Goals and objectives – Allocation guidelines for project funding – Criteria for solicitation, selection and project funding • Three Target Areas Established for Program Funding: – Grid-Integration: 50-65% – Production Technologies: 10‐25% – Business Development and Deployment: 10‐20% 5
  6. 6. Sacramento Municipal Utility District 100MW Feed-in-Tariff New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• SMUD max summer load ~3GW• Feed in Tariff = 100MW or ~3% of peak load• ~36 MW of hidden “behind the meter” PV• SMUD capacity expected to grow, goal of 125 MW net metered PV by 2016• Power integration issues are very (grid) site dependant: Forecast capability addresses/informs planning, automation and curtailment/mitagation issues 6
  7. 7. NDFD Grid, Primary & Secondary Sites SMUD Service Territory New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges 7
  8. 8. Sacramento Municipal Utility District Multi-forecaster Benchmarking New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges•SMUD will be using irradiance network and FiT systems to benchmark forecast performance for 4 forecasters in addition to Neo Virtus beginning in August•Forecasters will provide hourly forecasts, uncertainty and 5 minute variability on hour ahead up to 5 days in advance for each irradiance sensor and FiT system output•Sandia Labs will quantify forecast accuracy for various weather conditions and timeframes•Goal is to understand broadly state of the art in forecast accuracy and ability to trust forecast performance for different timeframes 8
  9. 9. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• CONCLUSIONS 9
  10. 10. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Irradiance Fundamentals• PV Power Simulation Fundamentals• Current Solar Forecasting Methods• NEO Virtus Day Ahead Forecasting of AC Power 10
  11. 11. Irradiance Fundamentals New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI)• Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI)• Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI): GHI = DNI cos ϴ +DHI• 1000W/m2 GHI ≈ Full Scale or 1pu (nominal at sea level) 11
  12. 12. Irradiance Fundamentals New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Plane of Array Irradiance (POA) = Incident Irradiance on PV array• POA can be calculated with a knowledge of: – Direct Norman Irradiance (DNI) and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) and – PV system Azimuth, Tilt, Lat/Lon, Shading Obstruction, Date & Time 12
  13. 13. PV Power Simulation Fundamentals New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges 13
  14. 14. Current Solar Forecasting Methods New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges Technology Time Horizon Coverage Satellite 12hr to 7 days Global Mesoscale 12hrs to months Global/ NWP models Regional Aggregated 1hrs to 3hrs Regional Ground Sensors SkyImager 30min to 3hrs 2 to 10km radius Array Scale 1 to 30 minutes Array Size Sensors 14
  15. 15. NEO Virtus Method for Day Ahead Forecasting AC Power New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges CLOUDCOVERCollect Forecast Cloud-cover (NEO uses NDFD data): FORECAST+ PV ARRAY SPECS  Cloud fraction (%) SOLAR GEOMETRYCollect PV Array Data: MODEL  Azimuth, Tilt, Lat/Lon, Shading, Capacity, Inverter, etc. IRRADIANCE TRANSMITTANCE MODELSimulate: PV ARRAY GEOMETERY+• Sun Position Model: zenith & azimuth angles (º) SHADING• Irradiance Transmittance Model: DNI & DHI (W/m^2) PV CONVERSION MODEL• PV Array Geometry & Shading Model: POA (W/m^2) INVERTER+• Photovoltaic Conversion Model: DC Power (Wdc) LOSSES MODEL• Inverter & Losses Model: AC Power (Wac) AC POWER OUT 15
  16. 16. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• CONCLUSIONS 16
  17. 17. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges Build & deploy irradiance monitoring network Monitor utility scale PV system power production Validate irradiance forecast performance territory-wide  0-3 hour ahead  Day ahead Validate PV power production forecast for SMUD Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) PV Systems  0-3 hour ahead  Day ahead 17
  18. 18. Primary & Secondary Irradiance Monitoring Station Specifications New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Irradiance Monitoring Network – 5 primary monitoring stations • GHI, DHI, DNI • Ambient temperature • 1 minute averages – 66 secondary monitoring stations • GHI • Ambient temperature • 1 minute averages 18
  19. 19. Secondary Station Design & Fabrication New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Irradiance Monitoring Network – 5km grid Sacramento – NDFD Lambert conformal projection – Installed on SMUD utility poles – Automated data retrieval via cellular modem – 14 month continuous data 19
  20. 20. Primary & Secondary Monitoring Stations New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges 20
  21. 21. Day Ahead Irradiance & PV Power Forecast Validation New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges 1-minute, 5kmresolution GHI & Temp database NEO Forecast vs. NEO Forecast vs. Measured PV Measured power production irradiance validation validation 21
  22. 22. Solar Forecasting Error Analysis New Energy Horizons Opportunities and ChallengesRelative (percent) Error*:  RMSE/Capacity  MAE/Capacity  MBEData were filter for zenith angle >90 (no night time data were used).No plant availability information was provided: we assumed 100% availability.* Hoff, Perez, Kleissl, Renne, Stein: “Reporting of Relative Irradiance Prediction Dispersion Error” 22
  23. 23. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• Territory-wide measured irradiance data animation 23
  24. 24. PRELIMINARY RESULTS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• NEO 20-36 Hour (Day Ahead) Forecasting Model PV Production 5/1/12 to 7/2/12 • R2 = 0.9398 • RMSE/Capacity = 8.61% • MAE/Capacity = 5.57% • MBE = -2.39% 24
  25. 25. NEO’s Day Ahead Forecast vs. MeasuredOne SMUD FIT PV System 5/1/12 to 7/2/12 New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges SMUD FIT PV Array R² = 0.9398 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 Forecast ac production (% capacity) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Measured ac production (% capacity) 25
  26. 26. NEO’s Day Ahead Forecast vs. Measured PV Production (one system) New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges 18 16 14 12 10BP01 measured ac (avg 1 min)BP01 forecast ac 8 6 4 2 0 6/3/2012 6/4/2012 6/5/2012 6/6/2012 6/7/2012 6/8/2012 26
  27. 27. Unforeseen Issues, Lessons Learned New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Shadows cast by overhead lines and crossbars causing “artifacts” in daily data – Sandia & SMUD are working out algorithm to filter data• Data logger flash memory failures – Code was changed and manufacturer replaced failed units• Secondary sensors cannot be cleaned economically – Precision Spectral Pyrranometers which can be cleaned and maintained are used for system-wide calibration 27
  28. 28. Overhead Wire Shading Anomalies New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges Global Horizontal Radiation 6/25/11 Global Horizontal Radiation 07/09/11 SMUD/NEO Virtus Secondary Station #64 SMUD/NEO Virtus Secondary Station #64 1100 35 1100 35 1000 1000 30 30 900 900 800 25 800 25 700 700Irradiance (W/m2 ) Irradiance (W/m2 ) Temperature ( C) Temperature ( C) 20 20 600 600 500 500 15 15 400 400 300 10 300 10 200 200 5 5 100 100 0 0 0 0 5:30 6:30 7:30 8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 5:30 6:30 7:30 8:30 9:30 10:30 11:30 12:30 13:30 14:30 15:30 16:30 17:30 18:30 19:30 20:30 Time (Pacific Standard Time) Time (Pacific Standard Time) DAS# 64 POLE# UD122802 LAT: 38.59662 LON: -121.48561 Temp (⁰C) DAS# 64 POLE# UD122802 LAT: 38.59662 LON: -121.48561 Temp (⁰C) 28
  29. 29. Global Network Calibration New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• Eppley Precision Spectral Pyranometer (PSP) 29
  30. 30. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• CONCLUSIONS 30
  31. 31. ONGOING WORK New Energy Horizons Opportunities and ChallengesDevelopment of 0-3 hour ahead forecasts using sensor network  Territory-wide GHI  Feed in Tariff PV Systems ProductionFiltering of signal noise caused by cross arm and wire shadingGlobal calibration of sensor network 31
  32. 32. TOPICS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges• PROJECT BACKGROUND• TECHNICAL BACKGROUND• EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN• PRELIMINARY RESULTS• ONGOING WORK• CONCLUSIONS 32
  33. 33. CONCLUSIONS New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges Solar forecasting technology is in the earliest stages of development  Error metrics, time horizons and benchmarks are being developed  Numerous forecasting technologies are under development  Performance validation efforts for individual forecasting technologies are being conducted  There are front runners but currently no clear winners in this technology race 33
  34. 34. NEO Virtus Engineering, Inc. New Energy Horizons Opportunities and Challenges QUESTIONS? James M. Bing, PE jbing@neovirtus.com Obadiah Bartholomy OBartho@smud.org Pramod Krishnani pramod.krishnani@belectric-usa.com 34

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