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Petrobras´ Growth Prospects: A Downstream Perspective - CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Downstream Asia
1. PETROBRAS’
GROWTH PROSPECTS: A
DOWNSTREAM PERSPECTIVE
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
CEO
November, 1st 2011
Downstream Asia
1
2. Fast-growth regions continue to invest in refining ...
Additional Refining Capacity (2011-2016)
1700
637
1507
Thousand bpd
1504
1118 240
736 192
490 463
200 245
-47
Asia Middle East North America Latin America Europe FSU Africa
Expansion New Refineries
Sources: Pira, Petrobras 2
3. ... and Brazil stands out as one of the largest and fastest growing
markets in the world
2010 TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION* (MM BPD)
*Includes ethanol and biodiesel
>3 MM bpd 2-3 MM bpd <2 MM bpd
19,15
9,06
4,45
3,32 3,20
2,81 2,60 2,44 2,38 2,28 1,99 1,80 1,74 1,59
240
TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION (1999=100)
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015
Brazil USA India China World OECD
Sources: BP Statistical Review / Petrobras estimates 3
4. Due to a number of economic reasons, such as freight costs …
Freight Costs (US$/bbl)
2,8
4,9 5,4
2,8
7,7
4,1
Crude oil
Oil Products
Processing in Brazil implies:
Lower Lead-Times
Reduced Tankage needs
Lower Inventories
Reduced need for ships
4
5. ... Petrobras will expand its refining capacity in Brazil ...
PREMIUM I
(2nd train)
300 kbpd
(2019)
COMPERJ
(2nd train)
165 kbpd
(2018)
PREMIUM II
300 kbpd
COMPERJ (2017)
(1st train)
165 kbpd PREMIUM I
(2013) (1st train)
300 kbpd 3.327
(2016)
ABREU E LIMA
230 kbpd 3.095
(2012) 2.643
2.536 4.910
3.070 3.217
(thousand bpd)
2.147 2.100 2.208 2.205
2.004
1.798 1.811
1.393
1.036
181
1980 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios)
5