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PETROBRAS’
   GROWTH PROSPECTS: A
DOWNSTREAM PERSPECTIVE

José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
                             CEO
               November, 1st 2011
                 Downstream Asia



                                    1
Fast-growth regions continue to invest in refining ...

                                            Additional Refining Capacity (2011-2016)




               1700




                                                                637
                              1507
Thousand bpd




               1504
                                                                1118                   240
                                              736                                             192
                               490                                                     463
                                                                               200            245
                                                                               -47
               Asia        Middle East   North America Latin America         Europe    FSU   Africa


                                                    Expansion      New Refineries


Sources: Pira, Petrobras                                                                              2
... and Brazil stands out as one of the largest and fastest growing
markets in the world
                                2010 TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION* (MM BPD)
                                           *Includes ethanol and biodiesel
                       >3 MM bpd                             2-3 MM bpd                      <2 MM bpd
    19,15
             9,06




                       4,45
                              3,32    3,20
                                              2,81    2,60      2,44   2,38    2,28   1,99     1,80   1,74   1,59




  240
                                     TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION (1999=100)
  220
  200
  180
  160
  140
  120
  100
    80
            1999     2000     2001    2002   2003    2004       2005   2006    2007   2008     2009   2010   2015

                    Brazil           USA             India             China           World             OECD
Sources: BP Statistical Review / Petrobras estimates                                                                3
Due to a number of economic reasons, such as freight costs …
                                             Freight Costs (US$/bbl)




                                       2,8
                                 4,9          5,4

                         2,8
                                                                7,7

                                                                       4,1




                                                                             Crude oil
                                                                             Oil Products
 Processing in Brazil implies:
  Lower Lead-Times
  Reduced Tankage needs
  Lower Inventories
  Reduced need for ships
                                                                                            4
... Petrobras will expand its refining capacity in Brazil ...
                                                                                                                          PREMIUM I
                                                                                                                          (2nd train)
                                                                                                                           300 kbpd
                                                                                                                            (2019)

                                                                                                                          COMPERJ
                                                                                                                         (2nd train)
                                                                                                                          165 kbpd
                                                                                                                           (2018)


                                                                                                                        PREMIUM II
                                                                                                                         300 kbpd
                                                                                         COMPERJ                          (2017)
                                                                                         (1st train)
                                                                                         165 kbpd                       PREMIUM I
                                                                                           (2013)                        (1st train)
                                                                                                                         300 kbpd                       3.327
                                                                                                                           (2016)
                                                                                      ABREU E LIMA
                                                                                        230 kbpd                                                        3.095
                                                                                         (2012)                        2.643

                                                                                                                       2.536            4.910




                                                                                                       3.070                                    3.217
(thousand bpd)




                                                              2.147   2.100           2.208                    2.205
                                              2.004
                                                      1.798                   1.811
                       1.393
                               1.036

                 181
                       1980                           2010                    2011                             2015                             2020
                                  Oil and NGL production - Brazil      Throughput - Brazil                Oil products demand (2 scenarios)

                                                                                                                                                                5
... securing profitable margins, ...


                    30
                                                                                                                2002-2011 Average

                    25

                                                                                                                                    20
                    20


                    15                                                                                                        -9

                                                                                                                         10
                    10
                                                                                                            6       +5
 $/bbl (2010 US$)




                     5


                     0
                                                                                                         USG LLS        PBR         USG
                                                                                                         Cracking    Downstream    Maya
                    -5                                                                                                 Margin      Coking
                         2002   2003     2004   2005   2006    2007   2008     2009   2010     2011
                                                                                             (Jan-Jun)
                                       PBR Downstream Margin                 USG LLS Cracking
                                       NWE Brent Topping                     USG Maya Coking
                                       NWE Brent Cracking

Source: PIRA                                                                                                                                6
... ,a stable consolidated Ebitda, ...
           US$/bbl   97,81                                                                                           96,04
                                                                                     89,95
                                                    79,52
                     97,00                                                                                           94,58
                                                                                     79,47
                                                    61,51

                                                 Average Brent           Average Realization Price




                                    Adjusted EBITDA breakdown by segment (US$ bn)
                                                                                                                    2,4
                                                                                                                    1,3
                                                                                                                    2,4
                                                                                                                    0,8
                       0,2                                                           2,2
                       1,4                                                           1,3
                                                                                     1,7
                                                      1,1                            4,2
                                                      1,1 0,9

                                                      11
                                                                                                                    41,0
                      35,4
                                                                                     30,5
                                                     19,3


                      -1,6
                      -0,2
                     2008                           2009                            2010                            LTM
                         E&P               RTM               G&P                Distribution              International

Notes: 1) Adjusted according to average exchange rate; 2) Ebitda does not consid Corporate and Eliminations                  7
... and better economics in the new refineries, which will process a
 different crude profile, with lower oil costs
                  Average API Processed (2020)*                     Average Naphthenic Acidity (2020)*
                                    -5,5                                                     +0,7
                         28,0                                                                           1,3
                                             22,5




                                                                      (mg KOH/g)
                                                                                     0,5



                        Existing           Premium                                  Existing           Premium
                       Refineries          Refineries                              Refineries          Refineries


                      Crude Sulfur Content (2020)*                           Average Crude Cost (2020)*

                                    +0,1                                           -5,8
                                              0,6                     75
                                                                                                       -2,3
                          0,5                                                                69
                                                                                                                 67
                                                        (US$/bbl)
              (ppm)




                        Existing           Premium                   Brent                 Existing           Premium
                       Refineries          Refineries                                     Refineries          Refineries


* Estimates                                                                                                                8
Petrobras forecasts sizeable increases in its exports


                                                                       26



                                                                      636




                                                                  8
                                                              155
               2       1                                              1655
                                            2
 (mil boed)




              227     200
                                           196
                                                              834
              478     497
                                           387


              2009    2010                2011                2015    2020

                             Crude Oil   Oil products   Ethanol




                                                                             9
Petrobras’ oil exports and imports breakdown
                            Petrobras' oil exports destinations
     100%
                                                                                   USA
      80%                                                                          Europe

      60%                                                                          Caribbean

      40%                                                                          India

      20%                                                                          China

                                                                                   Latin America
       0%
              2007   2008            2009           2010          2011 (Jan-Aug)



                              Petrobras' oil imports sources
     100,0%
                                                                                   Others
      80,0%
                                                                                   Nigeria
      60,0%
                                                                                   Lybia
      40,0%
                                                                                   Iraq
      20,0%
                                                                                   Saudi Arabia
       0,0%
              2007   2008            2009           2010          2011 (Jan-Aug)


                                                                                                   10
11
 11

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Petrobras´ Growth Prospects: A Downstream Perspective - CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo - Downstream Asia

  • 1. PETROBRAS’ GROWTH PROSPECTS: A DOWNSTREAM PERSPECTIVE José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO November, 1st 2011 Downstream Asia 1
  • 2. Fast-growth regions continue to invest in refining ... Additional Refining Capacity (2011-2016) 1700 637 1507 Thousand bpd 1504 1118 240 736 192 490 463 200 245 -47 Asia Middle East North America Latin America Europe FSU Africa Expansion New Refineries Sources: Pira, Petrobras 2
  • 3. ... and Brazil stands out as one of the largest and fastest growing markets in the world 2010 TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION* (MM BPD) *Includes ethanol and biodiesel >3 MM bpd 2-3 MM bpd <2 MM bpd 19,15 9,06 4,45 3,32 3,20 2,81 2,60 2,44 2,38 2,28 1,99 1,80 1,74 1,59 240 TOTAL OIL CONSUMPTION (1999=100) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 Brazil USA India China World OECD Sources: BP Statistical Review / Petrobras estimates 3
  • 4. Due to a number of economic reasons, such as freight costs … Freight Costs (US$/bbl) 2,8 4,9 5,4 2,8 7,7 4,1 Crude oil Oil Products Processing in Brazil implies:  Lower Lead-Times  Reduced Tankage needs  Lower Inventories  Reduced need for ships 4
  • 5. ... Petrobras will expand its refining capacity in Brazil ... PREMIUM I (2nd train) 300 kbpd (2019) COMPERJ (2nd train) 165 kbpd (2018) PREMIUM II 300 kbpd COMPERJ (2017) (1st train) 165 kbpd PREMIUM I (2013) (1st train) 300 kbpd 3.327 (2016) ABREU E LIMA 230 kbpd 3.095 (2012) 2.643 2.536 4.910 3.070 3.217 (thousand bpd) 2.147 2.100 2.208 2.205 2.004 1.798 1.811 1.393 1.036 181 1980 2010 2011 2015 2020 Oil and NGL production - Brazil Throughput - Brazil Oil products demand (2 scenarios) 5
  • 6. ... securing profitable margins, ... 30 2002-2011 Average 25 20 20 15 -9 10 10 6 +5 $/bbl (2010 US$) 5 0 USG LLS PBR USG Cracking Downstream Maya -5 Margin Coking 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Jan-Jun) PBR Downstream Margin USG LLS Cracking NWE Brent Topping USG Maya Coking NWE Brent Cracking Source: PIRA 6
  • 7. ... ,a stable consolidated Ebitda, ... US$/bbl 97,81 96,04 89,95 79,52 97,00 94,58 79,47 61,51 Average Brent Average Realization Price Adjusted EBITDA breakdown by segment (US$ bn) 2,4 1,3 2,4 0,8 0,2 2,2 1,4 1,3 1,7 1,1 4,2 1,1 0,9 11 41,0 35,4 30,5 19,3 -1,6 -0,2 2008 2009 2010 LTM E&P RTM G&P Distribution International Notes: 1) Adjusted according to average exchange rate; 2) Ebitda does not consid Corporate and Eliminations 7
  • 8. ... and better economics in the new refineries, which will process a different crude profile, with lower oil costs Average API Processed (2020)* Average Naphthenic Acidity (2020)* -5,5 +0,7 28,0 1,3 22,5 (mg KOH/g) 0,5 Existing Premium Existing Premium Refineries Refineries Refineries Refineries Crude Sulfur Content (2020)* Average Crude Cost (2020)* +0,1 -5,8 0,6 75 -2,3 0,5 69 67 (US$/bbl) (ppm) Existing Premium Brent Existing Premium Refineries Refineries Refineries Refineries * Estimates 8
  • 9. Petrobras forecasts sizeable increases in its exports 26 636 8 155 2 1 1655 2 (mil boed) 227 200 196 834 478 497 387 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 Crude Oil Oil products Ethanol 9
  • 10. Petrobras’ oil exports and imports breakdown Petrobras' oil exports destinations 100% USA 80% Europe 60% Caribbean 40% India 20% China Latin America 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Jan-Aug) Petrobras' oil imports sources 100,0% Others 80,0% Nigeria 60,0% Lybia 40,0% Iraq 20,0% Saudi Arabia 0,0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Jan-Aug) 10
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