Future of Microgrids

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paul young cpa, cga

This presentation looks at microgrids. The focus is on Canada as microgrids are gaining traction in Canada.

Economy & Finance

FUTURE OF
MICROGRIDS
BY: PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
DATE: SEPTEMBER 4, 2017

PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

MICROGRID MARKET
Source - http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/microgrid-market-size-worth-1751-billion-by-2025--cagr-170-grand-view-research-inc-640275813.html

CANADA AND MICROGRID
• Source - https://www.ebmag.com/generation/sc-canada-utility-partner-deploying-microgrid-at-north-bay-community-energy-park-19860

CANADA AND MICROGRID
• Source - https://www.proudgreenhome.com/articles/green-organizations-push-canada-to-adopt-ultra-energy-efficient-building-codes/

ONTARIO GOVERNMENT AND SMART GRIDS
• http://www.energy.gov.on.ca/en/smart-grid-fund/smart-grid-fund-projects/

ONTARIO AND MICROGRIDS
Source - https://www.amo.on.ca/AMO-PDFs/Events/16ES/PeterAsmus.aspx

MARKET ENTRY
• Companies will need to work both provincial and municipal government.
Power Generation is a provincial matter.
• Canada is moving more and more to microgrids

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Canada should be a world leader in the export of LNG as the previous government left policies that support LNG - https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/canada-to-reduce-taxes-for-lng-projects-stephen-harper-says. Trudeau chose to add in more regulations and/or taxes like carbon taxes which have made LNG sector less competitive with other jurisdictions like Qatar - https://www.forbes.com/sites/llewellynking/2021/12/04/qatar-sees-green-role-for-lng-as-world-gasps-for-more-energy/?sh=39b750f06660 Natural gas is about 10% of the power generation in Canada. Wind and Solar cannot handle the volume that natural gas provides in generation capacity. USA gets cheap Canadian natural gas as they are largest consumer of Natural Gas - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=34172 and https://www.canadianenergycentre.ca/missing-out-natural-gas-and-canadas-exports/ 1. Germany and Russia – Natural Gas - https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-reliance-on-russian-gas-limits-europes-options-in-ukraine-crisis-11642939203 2. LNG and EMEA - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-more-lng-supplies-get-europe-event-crisis-2022-01-25/ 3. LNG / USA - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-more-lng-supplies-get-europe-event-crisis-2022-01-25/ 4. LNG - https://www.ft.com/content/1ac9a0b9-5e93-4d1c-8f9b-d3a16db2467a 5. Natural gas prices - https://www.ft.com/content/1ac9a0b9-5e93-4d1c-8f9b-d3a16db2467a 6. Coal - https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/012522-canadas-ridley-terminals-december-coal-exports-soar-on-met-demand 7. Investment - https://think.ing.com/articles/oil-and-gas-markets-to-tighten-on-lack-of-upstream-spending 8. LNG - https://biv.com/article/2022/01/lng-canada-project-construction-kicking-high-gear 9. Food and Natural gas - https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/011922-fertilizer-costs-natural-gas-prices 10. Natural gas - https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/what-on-earth-gas-expansion-ontario-1.6313819 11. Natural gas - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51018 12. Natural Gas - https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/natural-gas-electricity-price-volatility-and-inflation-the-result-of-natural-gas-crisis-2022-01-24

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Summary: Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%. Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan. However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered. In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%. The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.” With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%. Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/

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What did the markets tell us this week? 1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world. 2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets. 3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies. 4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns. 5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia. 6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc 7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues. 8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing 9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain. 10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector. 11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.

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Summary: The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift. China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter. Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn. Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month. Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2 Additional sources and links: Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956 Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/ Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/ ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/ Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/ Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html

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paul young cpa, cga

Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted. All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way 3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands. There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months

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