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Future IT Trends Talk @Stanford OIT 554 Class - Guest Speaker - 3.7.17

Future IT Trends Talk @Stanford OIT 554 Class - Guest Speaker - 3.7.17

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The big five future IT trends
Internet of Things:
Assets Turn Into Applications
Machine Intelligence:
AI Could Replace 50M Professional Jobs
Distributed Ledgers:
Block chain is becoming mainstream
Sharing Economy:
We don’t owe anything anymore
Virtual and Augmented Reality:
Remote experience merge visual & digital world

The big five future IT trends
Internet of Things:
Assets Turn Into Applications
Machine Intelligence:
AI Could Replace 50M Professional Jobs
Distributed Ledgers:
Block chain is becoming mainstream
Sharing Economy:
We don’t owe anything anymore
Virtual and Augmented Reality:
Remote experience merge visual & digital world

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Future IT Trends Talk @Stanford OIT 554 Class - Guest Speaker - 3.7.17

  1. 1. Future IT Trends Paul Hofmann PhD CTO March, 2017
  2. 2. The Big Five IT Mega Trends • Internet of Things Assets Turn Into Applications • Machine Intelligence AI Could Replace 50M Professional Jobs • Distributed Ledgers Block chain is becoming mainstream • Sharing Economy We don’t owe anything anymore • Virtual and Augmented Reality Remote experience merge visual & digital world
  3. 3. IOT
  4. 4. Assets Turn Into Applications • The Internet of Things is driving automation in asset-intensive industries. • Everything will have a digital twin. • Everything becomes software. • Assets become applications. Examples: Amazon Retail experience as application. Goods, warehouses, delivery trucks are peripherals. Uber Transportation as application. Drivers, cars are peripherals.
  5. 5. Asset Sentinel Application: Mobile Asset Monitoring Asset Sentinel Listener is mounted on or in the trailer, establishing connection with beacons on each pallet or container. It reports environmental conditions such as temperature, pressure, barometric pressure and light. Custody of containers and palettes is maintained throughout the journey, transferring from the origination, to the trailer and driver, and then to the destination. Can discern theft or misappropriation vs. package not loaded. Asset Sentinel is able to reconcile the beacons it heard with the bill of lading as the driver pulls away. If the real-time load does not reconcile, driver is alerted with a push notification even before they leave the yard. Take custody of entire loads with a push of a button.
  6. 6. Asset Sentinel Application: Mobile Asset Monitoring Near real-time location and proximity of trucks / containers / drivers at docks, and at every point along the route. Real- time logging of all environmental changes to trailers and containers. Accelerometers provide shock and drop information. Chain of custody with bill of lading. Take custody of entire loads with a push of a button. Understand production line impact and continuously optimize operations based on condition monitoring of cargo/container and needed parts. During oceanic transfer, data is collected during the entire journey then transmitted once connectivity is re-established.
  7. 7. • End to end supply tracking, from sourced components to assembly plants • Connecting to the carriers • Real-time tracking of cargo, where it is, what condition is it in, who has possession • Chain of custody – was it stolen, forgotten, or misplaced? • Accurately predicting ETA / POD and condition of cargo BLE Beacons + User/Device Management + Discovery Service + Location Service + Chat Service + Asset Management + Chain of Custody + Machine Learning Logistics and Supply Chain
  8. 8. • Builds on existing infrastructure to improve service uptime • Intelligent agents monitor network of sensors and devices • Instrumentation and health monitoring of track switches • When critical condition occurs, automatically find nearest technician with right certifications and right tools and parts • Automatic dispatch of maintenance crews, repairs, spare parts • Integrated with machine learning optimization Switch Sensors + BLE Beacons + User/Device Management + Discovery Service + Location Service + Chat Service + Asset Management + Chain of Custody + Job Scheduling + Machine Learning Rail Switch Health
  9. 9. Connect Everything • Single solution delivers cloud, edge, and devices • Device agnostic : Supports any protocol • Rapid edge device development: robust SDKs/libraries • Smart Agents make any device a peer • Logic in the cloud allows solution recipes • Operationally simple - deploy on AWS, Google Cloud Engine, or on premise • Can be embedded in hardware and systems Warp IoT Capabilities Field service and asset tracking with auto dispatch Real-time fleet, driver, and asset tracking Mobile work force Predict rail switch health and optimize maintenanceReal-time visualization and analytics for operational monitoring and response
  10. 10. Applications for Actionable Insight and Automation Our Technologies • Continuous learning on streaming data for predictive and prescriptive application • IIoT services for essential connectivity and data collection • Real-time actionable insight visualization
  11. 11. Machine Intelligence
  12. 12. By 2019 A $1000 Computer Will Have The Same Processing Power As The Human Brain
  13. 13. Exponential Productivity Growth Due To Cognitive Machines In the Second Machine Age, Brynjolfsson and McAfee argue, “we are beginning to automate a lot more cognitive tasks, a lot more of the control systems that determine what to use that power for. In many cases today artificially intelligent machines can make better decisions than humans.” The Next Phase of the Digital Economy How we build, use, and live with our digital creations will define our success as a civilization in the twenty-first century. Will our new technologies lift us all up or leave more and more of us behind? The Second Machine Age is the essential guide to how and why that success will, or will not, be achieved.” Garry Kasparov, thirteenth World Chess Champion
  14. 14. Machine Intelligence • Machines will talk to each other • Understand, learn, predict, adapt and operate autonomously • AI Could Replace 50M Professional Jobs ~ 40% of employment Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future Software Will Eat The World
  15. 15. Three Examples
  16. 16. Applying Probabilistic Graphs To Time Series - Pricing Optimal Battery Warranty - Commodities Trading - Case Study Predictive & Prescriptive Windpark Maintenance
  17. 17. Use Time Series To Predict Nonlinear Battery Failure Innovative machine learning to find hidden patterns in time series Predict capacity degradation without having seen it in the wild Combine Hidden Markov Model with Hierarchical Mixture Models Why Reduce accruals by reducing financial risk of warranties How Predict degradation over time Find optimal policy for warranties
  18. 18. CBM with Prediction Assumes failure at A: lower asset life, increased repair/replacement costs Time in Operation Advanced machine learning for optimized asset lifecycle Failure SpaceTime Machine Learning ● Predict forward in time without loss of confidence ● “See over the hill” to extend asset life ● Produce better optimization for lower costs and increased productivity A Optimization Zone Probability of Failure Predict Failure Optimize Operations Detect Anomalies Extended Asset Life B
  19. 19. The failure prediction gives you the probability of failure into the future - at any point in time Battery Capacity Prediction Example Look Into The Future From Any Point In Time Example Of Capacity Prediction 30% Rated Capacity Depletion 70% Capacity
  20. 20. The Holy Grail Of Time Series Beating The EMH Innovative machine learning to find hidden patterns in time series Combine deep learning with hierarchical dynamic Bayesian Models to predict price Use stochastic optimization for money management  Learn optimal trading policy EMH Efficient Market Hypothesis Market reflects all relevant info Systematics Trading Make money beating the EMH
  21. 21. Futures Contracts Energy BRENT CRUDE WTI CRUDE US NATURAL GAS UK NATURAL GAS ETHANOL Brent CrudeMetals GOLD SILVER COPPER PALLADIUM Crops CORN WHEAT SOYBEANS OIL SOYBEANS MEAL
  22. 22. Helping Largest Wind Farm Operator Make Decisions Under Uncertainty • Reduced crew hours: $2.3 million savings/location • Optimized crew schedule • Improved crew safety and regulatory compliance • Solution – Crew Optimization – 250 users Success Story: Predictive Maintenance & Optimization ● Largest wind farm operator in the world; 19 states and 4 Canadian provinces ● 100+ sites; 10,000+ turbines; 1,000 teammates “Using advanced analytics to optimize resources and efficiency allowing us to reclaim thousands of lost hours of productivity” General Manager Largest Windfarm Operator Energy Resources
  23. 23. Optimization Weather Forecasts Crew Availability Work Order List Sensor Data Crew Schedule Crew Route Work Order List Traffic Value of Activities Performed Risk and Cost Managed Crew Skills Asset Failure Model Other Models DATA INPUTS OUTPUTS/ACTION Remaining Useful Life SpaceTime can perform optimization even when inputs involve uncertainty, like weather or traffic, and constantly changing inputs like the probability of asset failure. Global Optimization of Operations
  24. 24. Hub Optimization Reinforcement learning to optimize throughput over time subject to constraints service level by product available workforce system capacity System enables dynamical real-time reassignment based on latest IoT updates Why Better throughput, improved preventive maintenance, reduce inventory How Queuing Theory
  25. 25. Reasoning Under Uncertainty Over Graphs Speech Recognition Computer Vision Assets As ApplicationsGames Time in Operation Failur e A Optimiza tion Zone Probability of Failure Predict Failure Optimize Operation s Detect Anomalies Extended Asset Life B
  26. 26. Distributed Ledger
  27. 27. Distributed Ledgers – Thriving On Mutual Distrust • Institutions –> reduce uncertainty • Informal rules, formal rules, online institutions • Create trust with technology alone • Who? Public attestation -> portable ID • Transparency? Digital token in supply chain • Reneging? Enforce contract w/o 3rd party • Unique innovation in CS and business https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r43LhSUUGTQ Autonomous Systems For Exchanging Value The Business Wikipedia – Shared Monopoly
  28. 28. The Sharing Economy
  29. 29. The Sharing Economy – Access Economy • Travel, car sharing, finance, staffing & streaming • $15 billion in 2014 ~ 5% of the total spending • $335 billion by 2025 ~ 50% of the total spending • E.g. UberX produces ~ $6.8 billion social value/a Using Big Data to Estimate Consumer Surplus - The Case of Uber, Peter Cohen, Robert Hahn, Jonathan Hall, Steven Levitt, and Robert Metcalfe The Tragedy of the Commons Is the Distributed Ledger the Solution?
  30. 30. Virtual Reality
  31. 31. Visualization Technologies Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Immerse the user in a virtual world e.g. Oculus Rift – Facebook – Available now Project virtual content over top of the real world e.g. Microsoft HoloLens ~ 1 year out
  32. 32. Combining LIDAR Data With Ortho Photos - Orthofusion OrthofusionLIDAR elevation data + an “ortho” = (aerial) photo
  33. 33. Combining VR + Orthofusion + LIDAR = Photorealistic 3D
  34. 34. Virtual Reality For Vegetation Management
  35. 35. Virtual Augmented Reality LIDAR Data + Virtual Reality = Virtual Augmented Reality Reality captured as a LIDAR point cloud Use VR technology to - Render the point cloud - Augment it with - Simple highlights - Asset Models - Artificial Intelligence - Veg Growth models - What-if - Risk - etc - Real vegetation LIDAR snapshot Virtual Tree overlaid
  36. 36. Vegetation Intelligence – Outer Loop Learning Model using LIDAR LIDAR Data Update Growth Model Predict Growth Areas (Machine Learning) LIDAR Data Optimize Trim Plan Risk/Cost (Produce Schedule) Trim Operations Other Data - Climate - Outages - Environment
  37. 37. A Day In The Life For Next Gen Vegetation Planning Review Trim Plan View Scheduled Points of Interest by Analytics Risk Score Click on browser to teleport to LIDAR View of Area Adjust plan or add notes for crews Move to next Point of Interest Share Notes and “Tour” of schedule with Crew Manager Planners (central) Crew Managers (central or Remote / third party) Crew Manager Views Notes and is Taken on spatial “tour” of trim schedule
  38. 38. Next Gen Vegetation Analytics Tree & conductor data Growth Study Data Weather Data Vegetation Analytics LIDAR Data Click Button on Web Page For user “teleportation” Multi-year 3D LIDAR data used as input for growth modeling and feature detection User can teleport to a location and compare predicted growth against exact LIDAR measurements. Understand situation crew is entering Trim History Outage Data
  39. 39. The Big Five IT Mega Trends - Summary • Internet of Things Assets Turn Into Applications • Machine Intelligence AI Could Replace 50 M Professional Jobs • Distributed Ledgers Block chain is becoming mainstream • Sharing Economy We don’t owe anything anymore • Virtual and Augmented Reality Remote experience merge visual & digital world
  40. 40. The Team Jason Lenderman Alan McCord, PhD Rob Jones, PhD Zaid Tashman Marcela Munoz Recognition
  41. 41. Web: spacetimeinsight.com @spacetimeinsght linkedin.com/company/space-time-insight facebook.com/spacetimeinsight SpaceTime, SpaceTime Insight, and the Galaxy symbol are trademarks of Space Time Insight, Inc. Thank You @paul_hofmann https://www.linkedin.com/in/hofmannpaul Web: spacetimeinsight.com @spacetimeinsight linkedin.com/company/space-time-insight facebook.com/spacetimeinsight SpaceTime, SpaceTime Insight, and the Galaxy symbol are trademarks of Space Time Insight, Inc.

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