The Big Five IT Mega Trends
MEDES November 2011
Paul Hofmann, PhD (@paul_hofmann)
Vice President Research at SAP Labs, Palo Alto

About SAP
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Truly Global
Quick Facts
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customers
1,200+
partners
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employees
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Revenue
120
countries
25
industries
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What Does SAP Do?
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Management
Talent Management
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The Big Five Mega Trends
Mobile – Pervasive Connectivity Empowers The World
 5.5 B cell phones worldwide (78%) - 1.4 B sold in 2010 vs.15 B shoes
Big Data – Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law
 2020 all data will be 35 Zetabyte 1) (1021 Byte) Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars
Social Media – Capturing the Social Fabric
 98% of US online adults between 18 and 24 use social media 2)
Cloud Computing – The Oil of the Information Age
Consumerization – IT for the People

Mobile Phone – Empowering The World
85% of world’s population
has wireless coverage vs.
80% electrical grid
Smartphones Surpassed
Feature Phone Shipments
Europe (Q2:10) USA (Q1:11)
Smartphones + Tablets
outshipped PCs in Q4:10
In 3 Years, China added MISR Image of Central Amazon
more Internet users than
exist in USA
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No More Marketing Without Mobile
If your plans don’t include mobile, then your plans are not
finished
Wendy Clark, SVP, Integrated Marketing, Coca-Cola
IAB Annual Leadership Meeting 2011
Mobile ad revenues are projected to be $6.6 B by 2016 4)
$20 B opportunity for mobile and internet advertising 5)
assuming internet and mobile ad spend become equal to time spent
~90 M US people own smartphones  Smart Advertising
Almost every day users of mobile social media +70%
 growing faster than category
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Mobile Phone
No More Brick And Mortar Banks
 Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in 1 year
 12% are sending money from phone to phone
 M-PESA (mobile pesa=money)* branchless banking service in Kenya
 Over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population use M-PESA
 200 M+ farmers in India receive government payments via mobile
 Mobile minutes are currency in Africa and Asia
 Facebook moves ~ $2 B of virtual game money
*M-PESA is a joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom
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Big Data
Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law – Doubles Every 18 Month
 1.2 million Petabyte in data have been created 2010 up from 160 Exabyte in 2007 1)
 40% growth in global data generated per year vs. 5% growth in global IT spending 2)
 30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every month 2)
The Information Age Economy Creates Value From Data
 Old economy – BASF, Dow, DuPont, Ford, GM, GE 100k to 200k employees
 New economy – EMC, HP, MSFT, Oracle, SAP 50k to 100k employees
 Information age economy - Facebook, Twitter, Groupon 5k to 20k employees

Big Data
Software Will Eat The World
Machines will talk to each other – Internet of Things
Automation of Information Gathering and Processing
AI Could Replace 50 M Professional Jobs ~ 40% of employment
Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology
and the Economy of the Future

Social Media
72%
of internet users are active on
at least 1 networking site
Social > Internet
Social Networkers (11/2011) exceed
Internet Users (12/2006)
3rd Largest
If Facebook were a country
it would be the 3rd largest
http://socialmediatoday.com/soravjain/237864/fascinating-social-media-facts-year-2010
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What Does This Mean For Business
Viral Impact Brings Risk & Opportunity
From ”Talking At” To ”Talking With”
From ”Controlled Distribution” To ”Viral Distribution”
Message Control To Message Transparency
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Consumer Innovation 3)
Instead of asking them to watch, to listen, to play, to passively consume,
the race is on to get them to create, to produce and to participate
trendwatching.com
Our kids will have to create their own jobs instead of finding one
START UP OF YOU
For Example - http://quid.com/ maps the world’s technologies
It will help us to find our START-UP
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Peer Production - Yochai Benkler Harvard
Linux, Wikipedia
Slashdot, a news and announcements website
Distributed Proofreaders, which proof reads public domain texts for
publication on Project Gutenberg
Kuro5hin, a discussion site for technology and culture
Clickworkers, a citizen science program
Sourceforge, a software development organization
RepRap Project, a project to create an open-source self-copying 3D printer.
Pirate Bay, a shared index of bittorrents
OpenStreetMap, a free map of the world
SENSORICA.co, an open, decentralized, and self-organizing network
dedicated to high tech open innovation
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Shanzhai
Free Spirits in the Mountains
Grassroots creativity or a violation of
intellectual property ?
Shanzhai Nokia N9
 7 operating systems interfaces
Meego, iOS 5.0, HTC Sense,
Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry,
Smasung’s TouchWiz and
Symbian Anna
 Looks like a smartphone with
games and basic features
 It is a semi-smartphone that looks
like a smartphone but doesn’t
have the full features

Some things have to be believed to be seen

References
1) 2011 IDC Digital Universe Study
2) McKinsey Big Data Report
AI could replace as many as 50 million professional jobs Martin Ford 2011
3) The Age of the Consumer Innovator
Eric von Hippel et al.
MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2011, Vol 53, No 1, 27 – 35
4) comScore, mobile advertising spend is projected to hit $2.5 billion by
2014, with $2.7 billion projected in mobile ad revenues for this year and
$6.6 billion by 2016.
5) $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet $ Mobile ad spend equal to
time spent & share equals their respective time spent share eMarketer 3/11
Electronic valet start up, Venmo
Merchant payment start up, Square
Zipppay startup, a combination of Venmo and Square
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Thank You
Twitter: @paul_hofmann
Email: paul@hofmann.name
Homepage: www.paulhofmann.net
Blog: www.paulhofmann.net/blog
Slide Share: www.slideshare.com/paulhofmann
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/hofmannpaul

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