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The Big Five IT Mega Trends

CTO AI and Data Science @Accenture Resources
Oct. 15, 2011
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The Big Five IT Mega Trends

  1. The Big Five IT Mega Trends MEDES November 2011 Paul Hofmann, PhD (@paul_hofmann) Vice President Research at SAP Labs, Palo Alto
  2. About SAP We Help Organisations Do What They Do...Better © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 2
  3. EVERY 2ND DOLLAR OF WORLD TRADE RUNS ON SAP Suppliers and Customers CUSTOMER DISTRIBUTION CENTER SUPPLIER CUSTOMS/ REGULATORY AGENCY CFO Sourcing CRO CUSTOMS/ REGULATORY AGENCY Customs Operations Export Compliance Receiving Fulfillment COO Manufacturing © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 3
  4. Truly Global Quick Facts 175,000 customers 1,200+ partners 53,000 employees $ 17 B Revenue 120 countries 25 industries © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 4
  5. What Does SAP Do? Financial Management Sales Order Accounting Management Talent Management Production Planning Business Intelligence © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 5
  6. The Big Five Mega Trends Mobile – Pervasive Connectivity Empowers The World  5.5 B cell phones worldwide (78%) - 1.4 B sold in 2010 vs.15 B shoes Big Data – Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law  2020 all data will be 35 Zetabyte 1) (1021 Byte) Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars Social Media – Capturing the Social Fabric  98% of US online adults between 18 and 24 use social media 2) Cloud Computing – The Oil of the Information Age Consumerization – IT for the People
  7. Mobile Phone – Empowering The World 85% of world’s population has wireless coverage vs. 80% electrical grid Smartphones Surpassed Feature Phone Shipments Europe (Q2:10) USA (Q1:11) Smartphones + Tablets outshipped PCs in Q4:10 In 3 Years, China added MISR Image of Central Amazon more Internet users than exist in USA © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 7
  8. No More Marketing Without Mobile If your plans don’t include mobile, then your plans are not finished Wendy Clark, SVP, Integrated Marketing, Coca-Cola IAB Annual Leadership Meeting 2011 Mobile ad revenues are projected to be $6.6 B by 2016 4) $20 B opportunity for mobile and internet advertising 5) assuming internet and mobile ad spend become equal to time spent ~90 M US people own smartphones  Smart Advertising Almost every day users of mobile social media +70%  growing faster than category © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 8
  9. Mobile Phone No More Brick And Mortar Banks  Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in 1 year  12% are sending money from phone to phone  M-PESA (mobile pesa=money)* branchless banking service in Kenya  Over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population use M-PESA  200 M+ farmers in India receive government payments via mobile  Mobile minutes are currency in Africa and Asia  Facebook moves ~ $2 B of virtual game money *M-PESA is a joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 9
  10. Big Data Data Growth Follows Moore’s Law – Doubles Every 18 Month  1.2 million Petabyte in data have been created 2010 up from 160 Exabyte in 2007 1)  40% growth in global data generated per year vs. 5% growth in global IT spending 2)  30 billion pieces of content shared on Facebook every month 2) The Information Age Economy Creates Value From Data  Old economy – BASF, Dow, DuPont, Ford, GM, GE 100k to 200k employees  New economy – EMC, HP, MSFT, Oracle, SAP 50k to 100k employees  Information age economy - Facebook, Twitter, Groupon 5k to 20k employees
  11. Big Data Software Will Eat The World Machines will talk to each other – Internet of Things Automation of Information Gathering and Processing AI Could Replace 50 M Professional Jobs ~ 40% of employment Martin Ford in The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future
  12. Social Media 72% of internet users are active on at least 1 networking site Social > Internet Social Networkers (11/2011) exceed Internet Users (12/2006) 3rd Largest If Facebook were a country it would be the 3rd largest http://socialmediatoday.com/soravjain/237864/fascinating-social-media-facts-year-2010 © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 12
  13. What Does This Mean For Business Viral Impact Brings Risk & Opportunity From ”Talking At” To ”Talking With” From ”Controlled Distribution” To ”Viral Distribution” Message Control To Message Transparency © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 13
  14. Consumer Innovation 3) Instead of asking them to watch, to listen, to play, to passively consume, the race is on to get them to create, to produce and to participate trendwatching.com Our kids will have to create their own jobs instead of finding one START UP OF YOU For Example - http://quid.com/ maps the world’s technologies It will help us to find our START-UP © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 14
  15. Peer Production - Yochai Benkler Harvard Linux, Wikipedia Slashdot, a news and announcements website Distributed Proofreaders, which proof reads public domain texts for publication on Project Gutenberg Kuro5hin, a discussion site for technology and culture Clickworkers, a citizen science program Sourceforge, a software development organization RepRap Project, a project to create an open-source self-copying 3D printer. Pirate Bay, a shared index of bittorrents OpenStreetMap, a free map of the world SENSORICA.co, an open, decentralized, and self-organizing network dedicated to high tech open innovation © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 15
  16. Shanzhai Free Spirits in the Mountains Grassroots creativity or a violation of intellectual property ? Shanzhai Nokia N9  7 operating systems interfaces Meego, iOS 5.0, HTC Sense, Windows Phone 7, BlackBerry, Smasung’s TouchWiz and Symbian Anna  Looks like a smartphone with games and basic features  It is a semi-smartphone that looks like a smartphone but doesn’t have the full features
  17. Some things have to be believed to be seen
  18. References 1) 2011 IDC Digital Universe Study 2) McKinsey Big Data Report AI could replace as many as 50 million professional jobs Martin Ford 2011 3) The Age of the Consumer Innovator Eric von Hippel et al. MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2011, Vol 53, No 1, 27 – 35 4) comScore, mobile advertising spend is projected to hit $2.5 billion by 2014, with $2.7 billion projected in mobile ad revenues for this year and $6.6 billion by 2016. 5) $20B opportunity calculated assuming Internet $ Mobile ad spend equal to time spent & share equals their respective time spent share eMarketer 3/11 Electronic valet start up, Venmo Merchant payment start up, Square Zipppay startup, a combination of Venmo and Square © 2011 SAP AG. All rights reserved. 18
  19. Thank You Twitter: @paul_hofmann Email: paul@hofmann.name Homepage: www.paulhofmann.net Blog: www.paulhofmann.net/blog Slide Share: www.slideshare.com/paulhofmann LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/hofmannpaul
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Editor's Notes

  1. MobileBreakthrough technology for industrialized world and developing countries at the same timeNo need to read and write  audio and picsPervasive connectivity – fornt end to the cloudMobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in one year. 12% are now sending money from phone to phone. In Africa mobile minutes are currency.M-PESA (mobile pesa=money) is a branchless banking service, very successful in Kenya used by over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population; joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom. Example of Prahalad’s developing countries leap frog the West.A story from a friend’s servant in SA. His pregnant wife having complications late in the night and they needed to get to the doctor. This was very late in the night and their residence was far from town. Neither the gentleman nor the lady had airtime to call the doctor. However the lady was a registered customer for Mobile Banking service. With no other option left to get airtime, a solution lay in her hands under her thumb. She got onto her phone and was able to buy airtime and called the doctor who diagnosed the issue on phone and the lady was relieved of the pain.Moore’s law for data creation - amount of data is doubling every 18 month
  2. Mobile banking in SA has almost doubled to 44% up from 27% in one year. 12% are now sending money from phone to phone. In Africa mobile minutes are currency.M-PESA (mobile pesa=money) is a branchless banking service, very successful in Kenya used by over 10 M people or 50% of the adult population; joint venture between Vodafone and Safaricom. Example of Prahalad’s developing countries leap frog the West.A story from a friend’s servant in SA. His pregnant wife having complications late in the night and they needed to get to the doctor. This was very late in the night and their residence was far from town. Neither the gentleman nor the lady had airtime to call the doctor. However the lady was a registered customer for Mobile Banking service. With no other option left to get airtime, a solution lay in her hands under her thumb. She got onto her phone and was able to buy airtime and called the doctor who diagnosed the issue on phone and the lady was relieved of the pain.Moore’s law for data creation - amount of data is doubling every 18 month
  3. Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees
  4. Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees
  5. Our kids will not so much have to find their next job as to invent their next jobSilicon Valley  Facebook is now valued near $100 billion, Twitter at $8 billion, Groupon at $30 billion, Zynga at $20 billion and LinkedIn at $8 billion. These are the fastest-growing Internet/social networking companies in the world, and here’s what’s scary: You could easily fit all their employees together into the 20,000 seats in Madison Square GardenLook at this start up! That maps the world’s technologies; it will help us to find our START-UP ;-)http://quid.com/By 2020 it will be 35 Zettabyte (IDC)  Stack of DVDs halfway to Mars30 billion of pieces of content shared on Facebook every month$ 600 to store all the worlds music1.5 M more data-savvy managers needed for big data in US; McKinsey Old economy: BASF, Dow, DuPont, GM, GE                       100k to 200 k employeesNew economy: SAP, Oracle, HP, EMC, MS                         50k to 100 k employeesInformation age economy: Facebook, Twitter, Groupon      5k to 10k employees
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