Why do some still believe discredited knowledge? Paul H. Carr Why do some people still believe in knowledge that empirical data has shown to be incorrect? We will discuss why some still believe: (1) in the TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off, when data shows it has increased income inequality. (3) Humans are not accelerating global warming, contrary to climate scientist consensus. Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it (Upton Sinclair 1934). “ The Yale Cultural Cognition Project is an interdisciplinary team that uses empirical methods to examine the impact of group values on perceptions of reality. Their work has been used to criticize climate science deniers, arguing that without intent to deceive, they honestly see and hear only the evidence that is relevant to their preconceived notion of reality. The same argument has been used to attack scientists in the climate field arguing that they unconsciously "choose" data that fits and ignore data that does not fit the models they wish to promote. In both cases the underlying motivation is claimed to be fear of losing intrinsically valuable notions of self and access to money from fossil fuel companies for deniers and to government grants for scientists. Is the story of blind men examining an elephant a metaphor for finding knowledge and truth? BIOSKETCH Paul H. Carr B. S., M. S. MIT; Ph.D. Brandeis U, IEEE Life Fellow. The Templeton Foundation awarded Paul grants for the philosophy course "Science and Religion” he taught at U Mass Lowell, 1998 – 2000. This inspired his book “Beauty in Science and Spirit” (2006, IRAS Seminar 2005.) From 1967 to 1995, Paul led a branch of the AF Research Laboratory, which investigated microwave ultrasound and SAW (surface acoustic waves). His over 80 scientific papers and 10 patents have contributed to new components for radar, TV, and cell phones. His home page is www.MirrorOfNature.org

1. Why do some still
believe discredited
knowledge?
Paul H. Carr
www.MirrorOfNature.org
paulcarr@alum.mit.edu

2. Why do some people still believe in knowledge
that is contrary to empirical data ?
(1) TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim.
(2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better
off.
- Data shows it has:
a. increased income inequality &
b. increased our national debt.
(3) Humans are not accelerating global warming,
which is contrary to recent data.
Our discussion will increase an understanding of how
we come to know.

3. Genesis 1:7 (CEB) states, “And God made the
dome and
Genesis 1:7 (CEB): “And God made the dome and
separated the waters which were under the firmament
from the waters which were above.” 600 BCE

4. Experimental confirmation of
TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim.
A Ph.D. scientist tried to measure the
curvature of a lake. Since he could not
measure any, he concluded that the
earth is flat.

5. The Blind men examining the elephant illustrates limited worldviews.

6. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE
•Breadth of phenomena
•Ability to predict something new
•Empirical measurents can verify or
falsify.

7. PTOLEMY 150 A. D. COPERNICUS 1543
Ptolemy’s model of planets rotating about the earth made accurate
predictions.
Copernicus’ heliocentric cosmology was not more accurate but it
eliminated the complex epicycles
From The Bones of Copernicus by Dennis Danielson, “American Scientist,” Jan-Feb 2009

8. 1920. Harlow Shapley discovered our place in
the Milky Way Galaxy

9. Why do some people still believe in knowledge
that is contrary to empirical data ?
(1)TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim.
(2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off.
- Data shows it has:
a. increased income inequality &
b. increased our national debt.
(3) Humans are not accelerating global warming,
which is contrary to recent data.
Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something,
when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair 1934

10. Title of the
presentationInequality of capital
Thomas Piketty, Professor of Economics,
Paris School of Economics
19 December 2014
www.slideshare.net

11. 11
Data from
Capital in the 21st century
(Harvard University Press, March 2014)
This book studies the global dynamics of income and wealth distribution since 18c in 20+ countries; I
use historical data collected over the past 15 years with Atkinson, Saez, Postel-Vinay, Rosenthal,
Alvaredo, Zucman, and 30+ others; I try to shift attention from rising income inequality to rising wealth
inequality
•The book includes four parts:
Part 1. Income and capital
Part 2. The dynamics of the capital/income ratio
Part 3. The structure of inequalities
Part 4. Regulating capital in the 21st century
•In this presentation I will present some results from Parts 2 & 3, focusing upon the long-run evolution of
capital/income ratios and wealth concentration (all graphs and series are available on line: see
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c)

12. 12

13. 13

14. 14
Conclusions
•
The history of income and wealth inequality is always political, chaotic and unpredictable;
it involves national identities and sharp reversals; nobody can predict the reversals of the
future
•
The ideal solution: progressive wealth tax at the
global scale, based upon automatic exchange of
bank information
•
Other solutions involve authoritarian political &
capital controls (China, Russia..), or perpetual
population growth (US), or inflation, or some mixture
of all.

15. A RISING TIDE FLOATS ALL BOATS ?
The objective of the tax cuts from 70% in
1980 to 28% in 1988 was to stimulate the
economy, ie increase GDP. The was expected
to result in an increase in the tax revenue to
the government.
1. Increased income inequality.
2. No GDP increase
3. Increased our national debt.

16. After the top tax rate dropped from 70% in 1980 to 28% in 1988,
GDP growth decreased from 3.5%/year in 1980 to 2% at present.
Tax Cut

17. Reagan Tax Cuts
70% to 28%
OUR NATIONAL DEBT INCREASED IN 1980
WWII Ends
Won Cold
War
Recession from
deregulation of Banks

20. WWII POSTER
How we defeated Hitler Germany and Japan’s Rising Sun (1945).
Paid off WWII, Korean and Vietnam Wars debt (1980), Landed Man on the Moon (‘69)
Patriotism against enemies is the
Social Capital
that bound us together.

22. “It is difficult to get a man to understand
something, when his salary depends on
his not understanding it.”
ICandidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked by Upton Sinclair 1934

23. Why do some people still believe in knowledge
that is contrary to empirical data ?
(1)TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim.
(2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off.
- Data shows it has:
a. increased income inequality &
b. increased our national debt.
(3) Humans are not accelerating global warming,
which is contrary to recent data.
Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something,
when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair 1934

24. HUMANS INFLUENCE
OUR CLIMATE
Our CO2 emissions are happening 300 times
faster than natural effects.
-
Paul H. Carr, BS, MS, MIT; PhD, Brandeis.
IEEE Life Fellow
AF Research Laboratory Emeritus,
www.MirrorOfNature.org
24

25. The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING
OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT
GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a
rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL
PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th
slower.
3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE
Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes.
25

26. 2014 CO2 levels
of 400 ppm are
120 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since1750 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
26
Little Ice Age

27. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE
1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.
1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.
Aerosols
27

28. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
28

29. • C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.
• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C
• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C
HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.
29

30. During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the
global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries.
CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.
CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.
Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories
4 M PEOPLE 7 B
Ice Age
Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)
2. CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING
30

31. At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ice
age 18,000
-10,000 years
ago.
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,
COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO.
Ice
Age
31

32. • Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450
ppm.
• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm
-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.
Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
32

33. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
Sea levels are rising 4 times faster: 12 in/century at
present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924.
12 in./100
years.
7.5 in./100 years
3 in. /100 years
33

34. Earlier predictions for 2100: 2 to 6 feet
Climate scientist James Hansen, a former director at NASA, predicts: “the
sea level will rise by at least 7 more feet by 2070. This could range as
high 17 feet, depending on the model parameter.”
http://www.bradenton.com/opinion/letters-to-theeditor/article68272492.html#storylink=cpy
34

35. NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of
Mexico, Western Antarctica.
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University,
an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites
Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it woud raise sea
35

36. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water
made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
36

37. ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS
PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS
UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS.
From World Without Ice H. Pollack.
37

38. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained
the low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure difference allows
waves of arctic air to invade the
South: Warmer & Colder Winters.
Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.
Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep
arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.
The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012
38

39. “Physics
Today”
Jan 2009
Pg. 48.
11- yr
sun-spot
cycle.
No
increase
in solar
irradiance
since
1979.
39

40. At the 2002 Sigma Xi Research
Symposium I asked Prof. Molina: “What do
you think about global warming ?”
Prof. Mario J. Molina shared the 1995
Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work in
atmospheric chemistry showing that the
human generation of CFC were making a
hole in ozone layer.
He answered that global weather
forecasting and predicting are complex and
difficult.
However if your question is,
“Should we do something about global
warming?”
My answer is: “YES!”
We must
reduce our
CO2
emissions.
40

41. The Yale Cultural Cognition Project is an interdisciplinary team that uses empirical
methods to examine the impact of group values on perceptions of reality.
Their work has been used to criticize climate science deniers, arguing that without intent
to deceive, they honestly see and hear only the evidence that is relevant to their
preconceived notion of reality.
The same argument has been used to attack scientists in the climate field arguing that
they unconsciously "choose" data that fits and ignore data that does not fit the models
they wish to promote.
In both cases the underlying motivation is claimed to be fear of losing intrinsically
valuable notions of self and access to money from fossil fuel companies for deniers and
to government grants for scientists.

42. Why do some people still believe in knowledge
that is contrary to empirical data ?
(1) TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim.
(2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better
off.
(3) H.Con.Res.89 - Expressing the sense of Congress that a
carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States
economy. 114th Congress (2015-2016)
(4) Humans are not accelerating global warming,
which is contrary to recent data.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand
something, when his salary depends on his not

43. Sweden, one of the few countries
that tax carbon, has reduced its
emissions by about twenty-three per
cent in the past twenty-five years.
During that same period, its
economy has grown by more than
fifty-five per cent.

44. GDP
Emissions

45. 10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue
neutral carbon
fee with
dividend.
-Dividend would
be returned to
everyone.
-Stimulating
economy &
creating 2 million
jobs.

46. Why do some people still believe in knowledge
that is contrary to empirical data ?
(1)TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim.
(2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off.
- Data shows it has:
a. increased income inequality &
b. increased our national debt.
(3) Humans are not accelerating global warming,
which is contrary to recent data.
Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something,
when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Upton Sinclair 1934
“We have a plethora of information, but
apaucity of knowledge and wisdom.”
didate for Governor: And How I Got Licked by Upton Sinclair 1934

47. The Blind men examining the elephant illustrates limited worldviews.