SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 143
PC Makers
              Presenters:
            Oana Constantin
            Kevin Ridinger
             Adam Svoboda
               Cindy Xia
Agenda


• Industry Analysis

• Company Analysis
   • Dell, Inc.
   • Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P.
   • Gateway, Inc.
Industry Definition

• The personal computer industry consists mostly of
  assembling and selling:
      •   Desktops & Notebooks
      •   Servers & Mainframes
      •   Workstations & Thin Clients
      •   Supercomputers
      •   Mass Storage Devices
      •   Network Equipment
      •   Peripherals
      •   Handheld Devices
Nature of Industry


                                     Floppy,
                                  CD/DVD Drive
 Hard-drive


                    Motherboard
                      & CPU
 Power
Source &                                     Extra
 Cables                                    Peripherals

                       Case
Industry History (1/2)
• Start of the industry: 1975.

       MITS Altair 8080 – First
       personal computer




• Hits maturity by the mid-1990s
Industry History (2/2)
• New developments beginning with late-1990s:

   • Rapid decline in PC prices
             Consequently decrease in gross profit margins
   • Acceleration in the product cycle
             Faster depreciation of components and finished good inventories
   • Success of direct-sales/build-to-order strategy
             Remodeling of the value chain
   • Mergers and Acquisitions
             HP/Compaq, Lenovo/IBM
1995 Worldwide Market Share

                            Compaq
                            IBM
                            Dell
        3% 3%               HP
      3%
 7%                         Apple
4%                          NEC
                      47%
                            Packard-Bell
                            Fujitsu/ICL
8%                          Acer
 4%                         Toshiba
  3%                        Other
       8%
                10%
2004 Worldwide Market Share
                16%



                       6%
                             HP/Compaq
                             IBM
                             Dell
55%                          Fujitsu/Siemens
                       18%   Acer
                             Other

                  1%
                4%
PC Market Growth


                          US and Worldwide PC Market Growth
                                      1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2010
U.S. PC Unit Sales (#M)                6.6    9.5    21.4   46.0   48.3   56.6   66.7
U.S. PC Dollar Dales ($B)              17.2   24.5   56.8   86.9   78.1   84.5   86.1
Worldwide PC Unit Sales (#M)           11     24.2   70.1   130    149    181    249
Worldwide PC Dollar Sales ($B)         29.5   71.3   155    247    243    270    302
PC Unit Sales by Region (millions)
PC Market Segments (Million Units)

 160
 140
 120
 100
  80
  60
  40
  20
   0
       1990     1995       2000     2003     2005     2010
       Servers (U.S.)             Servers (Worldwide)
       Desktops (U.S.)            Desktops (Worldwide)
       Mobile PCs (U.S.)          Mobile PCs (Worldwide)
PC Market Segment Growth


           Worldwide PC Market Segment Growth for Desktops,
                       Mobile PCs, and Servers

                         1990   1995    2000   2003    2005   2010

Desktops                89.9%    81%    74%     68%    63%    55%

Mobile PCs               9.9%    17%    22%     27%    32%    39%

Servers                 0.02%    2%      4%     5%      5%    6%
PC Market Share of Leading Vendors

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0
      1990     1995     2000     2003       2005    2010

 Dell (USA)   HP/Compaq (USA)   Dell (WW)    HP/Compaq (WW)
Business Models


• Big Box

• Direct

• White Box
Big Box Model
• Traditional approach, through “brick and mortar”
  retailers and own stores

• Distributors purchase assembled, ready-to-use
  computers

• Allows consumers to touch and feel the product

• Higher cost due to high inventories, longer
  distribution channel

• Profit margin eroded
Direct Model
• Take customized orders directly from end consumers
• Assemble systems as orders come in
• Ship the product direct to customers
• More efficient, JIT inventory system
• Lower costs due both to inventory savings and
  distribution by-passing
• Savings are passed to customers
White Box Model
• Combination of Big Box and Direct Sales Strategies
• Own distribution facilities
• Allows consumers to customize their products while
  giving them a phisical location to purchase
• Highly fragmented, estimated to more than 500
  unbranded PC makers
• Often sell directly to small businesses looking for a
  significant price break rather than a big brand
  machine.
PC Industry Value Chain, 2004
Models of Production for US Sold PCs
Industry Performance
• NASDAQ Computer Index (IXCO)

   Includes 603 securities from categories:

      Computer Hardware
      Computer Software
      Semiconductors
      Computer Services
Industry Performance: 1 Year
Nasdaq Computer Index (IXCO)
Industry Performance: 10 Year
Nasdaq Computer Index (IXCO)
Industry Key Measures
• Profit Margin

• Sales Growth

• Market Share Growth

• Valuation Ratios

• Business Capital Spending
Industry Statistics
Valuation Ratios               Financial Strength
P/E                      22.96 Quick Ratio            1.34
P/Sales                   1.85 Current Ratio          1.61
P/Book                    6.83 LT Debt/Equity         0.31
                               Total Debt/Equity      0.38


Profitability                  Management Effectiveness
Gross Margin            31.33% ROI                  19.28%
Operating Margin        9.22% ROA                   9.94%
Net Profit Margin       10.68% ROE                  31.35%
Recent Developments
• Lenovo’s buyout of IBM’s PC unit.
      • Propelled the company on 3rd place in terms of worldwide market
        share (7.6%) for the 2nd quarter of 2005
• Apple switches to Intel processors
• Lenovo investing $84m in new R&D center in North
  Carolina
• Dell lowering earnings forecast, plus a $300m charge
  to repair faulty circuit boards
• Hewlett-Packard has hired Dell’s CIO, Randy Mott
• Soaring Apple stock price due to strong iPod sales
Apple – One Year Stock Price
Apple Sales Growth (millions)
Future Trends – Industry
• Pricing competition will become more aggressive
    Exit by some smaller players
    Further consolidation through mergers and acquisitions

• PC shipments expected to grow at 6% per year, but
  revenues will remain almost flat
    Forces players to further innovate and expand product offering
     such as media center computers and tablet PCs

• Faster growth in Europe and Asia segments
    Build strong marketing strategy targeting these segments to
     capture market share
Future Trends – Technology


• Continued shift from desktops to notebooks

• Shift towards wireless devices

• Adaptive hardware technology to support PC
  virtualization

• Continuous movement toward miniaturization and
  digital enhancement of portable music players and
  phones
Dell Inc.




      Presented by: Kevin Ridinger
Fast Facts about Dell Inc.
   Trades on NASDAQ, symbol: DELL
   One share bought for $8.50 at IPO in 1988 would be worth
    $3,800 today.
   Employs over 61,400 people
   Revenues totaled over $52.8 billion for the last four quarters
   Market Position: #1 in U.S., #3 in Japan, #2 in Europe
   7 Manufacturing centres spanning the globe, located in United
    States(3), Brazil, Europe (Ireland), Malaysia, and China.
   Nearly one out of every five standards-based computer system
    sold in the world today is a Dell.
Dell Timeline
1984: Michael Dell founds Dell Computer Corporation

1987: International expansion begins with opening of subsidiary in United Kingdom
1988: Dell conducts initial public offering of company stock (3.5 million shares at
   $8.5 each)

1993: Enters into Asia-Pacific region with subsidiaries in Australia and Japan
1996: Company begins major push into the server market
2000: Company sales via Internet reach $50 million per day
2001: For the first time, Dell ranks No. 1 in global market share
2004: Kevin Rollins becomes Dell's next chief executive officer. Michael Dell
   moves to Chairman of the Board
Management
           Michael Dell – Chairman of the Board (founded company
            in 1984)
           Kevin B Rollins – President and CEO since July 2004
            (prior he was president and COO of Dell Americas – joined
            in 1994)
           William J. Amelio – Sr. VP Asia-Pacific/Japan (since
            2001)
           Paul D. Bell – Sr. VP Europe, Middle East & Africa (since
            1996)
           Joseph A. Marengi, Sr. VP, Americas (since 1996, came
            from Novell)


Many of Dell’s current management came to the company around 1996-97.
Based on biographical evidence, many were lured from other high-tech
companies, including Novell, HP, Apple, Sun and Texas Instruments.
Strategy
   Uses the direct business model (reliant on very efficient
    manufacturing and supply chain management)
       Helps turnover inventory every four days (on average)
       Helps ensure the latest technology is offered without
        keeping outdated products on the ‘shelves’.
       Provides customers with single point of accountability
   Standards-based (do not support proprietary technologies)
   Collaboration with strategic partners
       Positively affects both input prices and product leadership
   Adding a significant layer of innovation (value-added
    processes)
Dell’s strategic corporate
initiatives for the future
    Continued Global Growth
        Growth outside of U.S. in largest countries at 30%
    Product Leadership
        Ex. integrated solutions to businesses (servers,
         desktops, and now printing)
    Enhancing the Customer Experience
        Dell value-added services (anti-spyware and virus
         software and support)
    Developing a Winning Culture:
        Essential for integrating Dell’s subsidiaries in over 47
         countries
Company Structure
Sources of Revenue
    Dell designs, develops, manufactures, markets,
     sells, and supports the follow products:
              •Servers                •Notebook Computers
              •Storage                •Desktop Computers
              •Workstations           •Printing and Imaging
              •Networking             •Software and
                                      Peripherals
•Dell also offers a variety of services from development and
support to professional and fully managed solutions.
 Dell also has a financial services division which is a joint venture between Dell
 and CIT group. It organizes financing alternatives for clients
Sales Mix (by Region & Product line)




Product-specific
Revenue Growth
Revenue Growth
                                          Net Revenue
                                                                                          Net Revenue (in
                        70000
                                                                                   Year          Millions)
                                                                                   2001          $31,888
                        60000
                                                                                   2002          $31,168
Revenue (in Millions)




                        50000                                                      2003          $35,404
                                                                                   2004          $41,444
                        40000
                                                                                   2005          $49,205
                        30000                                                      2006          $55,000
                                                                                   2007          $60,000
                        20000

                        10000

                           0
                           2001   2002   2003      2004       2005   2006   2007
                                                Fiscal Year
Costs
   Input costs from suppliers (COGS)
   Continuing drop in PC prices but what about Dell’s
    gross margin?
       2001: 17.7%, 2002: 17.9% 2003: 18.2% 2004: 18.3%
        2005: 18.6%

   Operating Expenses 
    -   marketing, sales and admin.
    -   R&D

   Almost zero long-term debt
       no service payments
Earnings Per Share
   $1.20


   $1.00


   $0.80


   $0.60


   $0.40


   $0.20


   $0.00
           2001   2002   2003   2004    2005
                         Year



                                  2006 FY Forecast: $1.59
Market Share by Region
                                    Fiscal Year Ended


Annual Market
Share:               30-Jan-05    30-Jan-04       31-Jan-03      1-Feb-02

Americas                 29.10%         27.70%          24.80%      20.30%

Europe                   11.70%         10.50%          9.60%        9.00%

Asia Pacific-Japan        8.30%          7.20%          5.90%        5.00%

  Worldwide              17.80%         16.70%          14.90%      12.70%
Key Financial Analysis Figures
   Number of Shares Outstanding
       2.4 billion
       Consistently been declining since 2001 (2.7B)

   Cash and Short-term Investments/Share
       As of Q2 2006: $3.77/share
   ROE: 2001: 39.78%, 2002: 24.36% , 2003: 44.32%,
    2004: 47.53%, 2005: 47.62%
    Ratios:
   Book value/share = $2.70, Price/Book = 11
   Price/Sales* = 1.4          P/E* = 21

                                                 *Calculated using P = $29
Financial Statements
 Balance Sheet
 Income Statement

 Cash flow Statement
Stock Options
      As of Jan 28, 2005




      As of Jan 31, 2003




   Average exercise price has steadily been increasing ($28.99 in 2005, compared
    to $8.78 in 2001)
Options (cont.)
Impact to earnings using fair value
One Year Stock Price
10 Year Trading History
Performance Comparison
2 Years




  IXIC = NASDAQ
  IXK = Nasdaq computers index
Model Valuation
 With   the residual income model:
    Dell’s price should be between $15 and $25
     depending on the assumptions used.
 SinceDell does not pay a dividend we cannot
 use dividend models to calculate a price.
 The FCFE model also does not work very
 well with the stocks that are in Dell’s industry
    Produces a price of $6 if the same k from the RI
     model is used.
How does Dell Measure up?
          Statistic          Industry Average          DELL

    P/E Ratio (ttm)                         28.6          21.14*


    Price/Book                              10.5              12.75


    Net Profit Margin                      6.7%               9.2%


    Price to FCF                            38.5               15*


    Return on Equity (ttm)                37.0%          59.18%


    Price to Sales                          1.81               1.4*

                                                   *Lower is better



                                          As of Nov 9, 2005
Value Drivers (cont.)
 Profits
     Company has turned a profit year after year.
     Continued expense reduction and increasing
      margins will help contribute to higher profits.
         Especially as international centres recently expanded
          into mature.
     Share buy back and continued reduction in
      gratuitous option issuance to execs
     Has a growing and already significant international
      presence  through diversifying it spreads risk of
      national economic/demand slowdowns
Value Drivers (Cont.)
   Growth
     Market share available abroad in Asia-Pacific and Europe
           E-commerce forecasted to increase especially in Asia
       Outside of the US, growth was over 30%. Has been strong for
        many years
       Product/service expansion
           Printing and Imaging revenues rose from 0 to 1.2B in 2005 in just
            under 2 years!
           Positioning themselves strategically within the emerging digital TV
            segment, making partnerships with Microsoft and Intel
       Technology Changes/PC Replacement
           Release of Windows Longhorn – may spur people to buy new
            computers with 64-bit capabilities
           More than 35% of users plan to replace their computers in coming
            years (long-term avg. 20%)
Factors to Consider
   Quarterly earning announcements
     Investors have historically reacted drastically when quarterly
      numbers are released
   Seasonality and cycles associated with the PC market
    (almost 60% of sales attributable to PCs)
   Foreign Exchange rate risks (38% of revenue from outside
    U.S.)
     hedging and derivatives

     repatriation of profits (in Q4 2005 $4.1 billion)

   R&D investment is lower than competitors which might hurt
    Dell in the long-run (especially in service sector)
Recommendation
 Analysts:Depression due to one quarter’s earnings forecast is a
• Recent Price
buying opportunity.            Current Year Next Year
                Earnings Est
                                               Jan-06        Jan-07
    •Attractive price vs. Competitors
                Avg. Estimate                1.59        1.87
• The company of Analysts to make enormous amounts of money
           No.
               continues             33       32
    • Limited-Downside potential for price (Share buyback)
              Low Estimate                  1.55      1.80
                High Estimate                1.65        1.95
•Expansion efforts in Asia-Pacific and Europe continue to show value
                                                         Three Months
•Good    management (experienced) have led Dell on a path of continued
                Current Month Last Month Two Months Ago      Ago
growth Buy
   Strong                   8           9               9             8
  Buy                       11          13              12            15
•Value Drivers (growth & profits) are strong
  Hold                      12          9               9             7
  Sell                      1           0               0             0
  Strong Sell               0           0               0             0
Adam J Svoboda
Background
 Founded     in 1939 by Bill Hewlett and Dave
  Packard

 First   Product: Audio Oscillator

 First   Customer: Walt Disney

 Went    Public on: Nov 6, 1957
Management/Executives
   Mark Hurd - 2005 - Chief Executive Officer and
    President. President and CEO of NCR since 2003
    (25 years of experience)

   Gilles Bouchard - Exec Vice President PSG (in Hp
    since 1989)

   Vyomesh Joshi - Exec Vice President IPG since
    1980

   Randall D. Mott - Exec Vice President since 2005,
    with dell for 3 years
   IN GENERAL: MOSTLY NEW BUT EXPERIENCED
Board of Directors
   Lawrence T. Babbio, Jr. – 2002
   Patricia C. Dunn - 1998
   Richard A. Hackborn - 1992
   Mark V. Hurd - 2005
   Dr. George A. Keyworth II - 1986
   Tom Perkins - 2005
   Robert L. Ryan - 2004
   Lucille S. Salhany - 2002
   Robert P. Wayman - 2005
Current Events
   HP takeover of Compaq - $25bn

   New CEO – Mark Hurd

   2005 – Profits fall

   Compaq acquisition complete

   Several other acquisitions have taken place
Snapshot – Compaq
Merger
   May 7, 2002, largest merger computer industry
    merger in history
   $25 billion
   1 Compaq share = 0.63 HP share
   Attempt to eliminate costs by reducing overlap
    in sectors
   Was opposed by both Compaq and HP (family)
Corporate Objectives
 Customer    loyalty
 Profit
 Market   leadership
 Growth
 Employees
 Leaders
 Global   citizenship
Products and Services
   Desktops and Workstations
   Notebooks and Tablet PCs
   Printers and multifunctional machines
   Handhelds and calculators
   Monitors and projectors
   Fax, Copiers and Scanners
   Digital Photography
   Storage
   Servers
   Networking
   Software
Market Position
   #1 globally in the inkjet, all-in-one and single-function printers,
    mono and colour laser printers, large format printing, scanners,
    print servers and ink and laser supplies*
   #1 globally in x86*, Windows®*, Linux®*, UNIX* and blade
    servers

   #1 in total disk and storage systems
   #2 globally in notebook PCs
   #1 globally in Pocket PCs
   #1 in customer support

   #1 position in customer loyalty for ProLiant servers
HP Business Sectors
 (PSG)  Personal Systems Group
 (IPG) Imaging and Printing Group
 (ESS) Enterprise Storage and Servers
 (HPFS) HP Financial Services
 (HPS) HP Services
 Software
 Corporate Investments
(PSG) Personal Systems
Group
   Commercial and consumer PC’s

   Workstations, handheld computer devices and digital
    entertainment systems

   Calculators

   Software services for commercial and consumer
    markets
(IPG) Imaging and Printing
Group
Printing,   imaging and publishing
 devices

Both for home users and
 businesses
(ESS) Enterprise Storage
and Servers
  Storage   and server products

  Low and high end scalable servers e.g.
   Superdome

  Enterprise   arrays, storage area networks
(HPFS) HP Financial
Services
 Leasing,   financing, utility and asset recovery
  services

 Specializedfinancial services for
  small/medium businesses and educational
  and governmental entities.
(HPS) HP Services
 Technology    and consulting

 Integration   services

 Managed   services
Software
 Software   solutions including support

 Infrastructure,   operations and applications
  management
Corporate Investments

 Labs   and ‘business incubation’ projects.

 Revenue   is from selling network infrastructure
 products: enhancing computer and enterprise
 solutions.
% Revenue byofSector
                 %  Revenue

           35
           30
                                              ESS
           25
                                              HPS
           20
   %




                                              Software
           15
           10                                 PSG
            5                                 IPG
            0                                 HP Financial
                        2004   2003   2002    Corporate Investments
                               Year

                                       2004      2003           2002
ESS                                   18.70     19.78           14.10
HPS                                   17.01     16.75           12.27
Software                               1.14      1.05            0.95
PSG                                   30.39     28.75           19.90
IPG                                   29.87     30.59           27.60
HP Financial                           2.34      2.60            2.31
Corporate Investments                  0.55      0.47            0.39
% Profit by Sector
                    % of Profit

           120
                                               ESS
           100
                                               HPS
           80
                                               Software
           60
  %




                                               PSG
           40
                                               IPG
           20
                                               HP Financial
               0
                                               Corporate Investments
           -20          2004   2003   2002
                               Year

                                       2004       2003            2002
ESS                                     3.27      2.93           -10.27
HPS                                    23.85     28.08           29.72
Software                               -2.74     -3.92           -11.61
PSG                                     3.97      0.45            -7.87
IPG                                    72.65     74.14          112.24
HP Financial                            2.36      1.63            -4.47
Corporate Investments                  -3.36      3.32            -7.74
Earnings by Region
                  Revenue overview by region
                      (in billions, for fiscal year 2003)
     Europe,
   Middle East,
      Africa                                                United States
      39%                                                       40%




    Americas
    (excluding
      U.S.)
       6%
                  Japan                    Asia Pacific
                   4%                         11%
Revenue by Region
Analysis in
% increase/decrease         9 months of 2004 - 2005
Net Revenue                             9.000957003

Net Expenses                            8.931591637

Earnings from Operations                10.31313819

Net Earnings                            -17.62261014

% increase/decrease in     2003-2004     2002-2003
Revenue                          9.37          29.11
Costs                            7.86          21.81


Earnings on Operations          45.96         386.17
Net Earnings                    37.73         381.17
Shares

000’             2004        2003        2002        2001
Balance       2,910,760   3,042,761   3,043,733   1,938,828
Issuance                                            111463
Repurchases                 172468       39780       39623



       Current – 2,907,000,000
       Further $4bn buyback approved
Financials
 Dividend  - $0.08 per quarter
 No stock splits since Dec 2000 (2 for 1)
 Year Est. EPS (10/05) 1.56
 Price/Earnings (Trailing)18.695
 Earnings Growth Rate17.200
 Relative P/E1.053
 Estimated P/E18.300
The stock as of 10 Nov
2005
                             52 Wk High              29.51
Last           28.23 USD     Date             20/09/2005
Change               -0.31   52 Wk Low               18.85
% Change (1)       -1.09%    Date             11/11/2004
High                28.63    Dividend                 0.08

Open                  28.4   Div Date         12/09/2005

Low                 28.21    Market Cap   80,879 M

Net Volume       7,242,200   P/E Ratio               26.89
                             EPS                      1.05
Revenue and EPS (2004)
Return on Investment
Stock Performance
Sector Comparison
Factors affecting future
performance
   Competition
   Inventory management
   ‘Staying on top of technological development’
   Intellectual property rights
   Economic uncertainty
   Terrorism
   Political changes
   ‘business disruptions’
Inventory and Distribution
 Big   Box

 BTO    and CTO combined

 High   end and low end sales
Competitors by Sector
 PSG  – Dell, IBM. Acer and Fujitsu (Europe)
 IPG – Very pricing competitive. Xerox, Epson,
  Lexmark
 ESS – Rapid technological innovation. IBM,
  EMC, Sun Micro
 HPS – IBM, EDS. Competitive in support and
  Consulting.
 Software – BMC, Veritas, Mercury, IBM
 HPFS – Financing companies: IBM Global
  Financing, Banks and Financial Institutions
Moving Forward?
   R&D – Constant at $3,500million
   Revenue increasing BUT so are costs
   Profits are sensitive to US$ exchange rate
   Several Business acquisitions
   $5billion authorized for share repurchases ($3b
    remaining)
   Innovative and popular products
   Predicted fourth Q $22.2-$22.4bn Revenue – Up
    10%
Acquisitions
 Snapfish  – Online photo service
 Scitex Vision – Super-wide digital printing
 RLX Technologies – Software provider
 Peregrine Systems – Management software
 Compaq – PC supplier
 ApplQ – open storage area network managemen
Market Leaders
 The    largest consumer IT company

 The    world's largest SMB IT company

 A leading   enterprise IT company

 Alsohas a significant presence in the public sector
  as well as health and education
Philip Fisher

   Production, Marketing, Research and Financial skills
        Good
   The People Factor
        New and old leaders - experienced
   Investment characteristics
        Very diversified and continually evolving
   Price of the investment
        Medium
Conclusion and
Recommendation
 2005 is a disappointing year
 New acquisitions bring a positive light
 Share buy-back




WEAK                      BUY              (wait till
  final results and evaluate!)
Gateway Inc.
Technology You Trust
Values

Caring, honesty, teamwork, respect,
aggressiveness, efficiency, fun and common
sense.

--- Offering products directly to customers,
  providing them with the best value for their
  money and unparalleled service and support
Company Background

   Founded in 1985 in a farmhouse by Ted Waitt
   Went public in 1993 traded on NASDAQ
   Started trading on NY Stock Ex in 1997
   3rd largest PC maker in U.S.
   In March 2004, acquired eMachines ($235 million)
   Currently 1,900 employees
   6% of US market share in consumer segment
Distribution Channels

 Direct distribution: web, phone, retail stores
 Indirect distribution: retailers like Costco
 Limited resellers in Canada and Mexico
Products
   Computers
desktops, notebooks, all-in-ones, professional PC
Systems (networking, servers and storage)
   Computer accessories
Mouse, storage, memories, monitors, modems
   Consumer electronics
digital TVs, digital camera, MP3 players, DVD
   players
   Software
Competitive Strategies in the 90’s

Gateway’ big box strategy and JIT
Direct +retail
Competitors:
Dell’s build-to-order, direct only, JIT
Compaq’s Build-to-forecast, retail only
Acquired ALR

Acquired Advanced Logic Research (ALR) in
1997 and announced its entry into corporate
network server market

Channeled through own retailing stores
Strategies in the 21st
     Century
•   Encountered big loss from 2001
       failure of cost leadership strategy
       higher cost and lower margin
       slow inventory turnover
•   “Branded integrator”
       offered the fullest range of product and
    service
•   B2B 2003
Acquiring eMachines


 Acquired   eMachines in March
  2004
 50 million new Gateway shares
  and $30 million cash
eMachines

                          Philosophy
   Build affordable computers for everyone – no
    compromise PCs that deliver incredible value and
    performance.
                            Market
   budget-conscious consumers
                           Products
   PCs and peripheral displays
                    Distribution Channels
   3rd party retailers: BestBuy, Office Depot
eMachines
 2cnd   largest vendor of desktop through US
  retailers
 low-cost, full-featured computer systems
 $1.1 billions of sales in 2003
 International market in Japan and UK
 Wayne Inouye, who joined eMachines in
  2001 and quickly turned it into money-
  making business
What does eMashine bring to GTW

 Low   cost distribution model and retail
  relationaship
 Highly efficient and profitable operation
  model
 Market shares in consumer desktop sector
 International growth opportunities
 Management team
After Acquisition

   eMachines CEO Wayne Inouye was named CEO of
    Gateway, succeeding Ted Waitt, who remains
    chairman and the company's largest stockholder
    28.3% shares and plays an active role in long-term
    strategic direction, product development and
    marketing plans.
   Combined management team from both Gateway
    and eMachine
   A few new members joined management team
Management

     Wayne R. Inouye (eMachine) CEO and
     President
     Former president & CEO of eMachine since 2001
     Senior vice president of PC merchandising for
     BestBuy
     Scott Bauhofer, Senior vice president
     Former senior vice president of BestBuy
     bachelor's in history from San Francisco State
     University
Management

     Bob Davidson (eMachine) Senior vice president
     U.S. retail
     Executive of eMachine P&C development
     Former vice president of BestBuy


     Ed Fisher (eMashine)Senior vice president
     international
     Executive of eMachine,former Intel sales director
     MBA Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate
     School of Management
Management
   John Goldsberry, (eMachine)senior vice president, CFO
    Joined Gateway in 2004
    Former CFO of eMachine, leaded the negotiation with
    Gateway
    bachelor's degree in Applied Mathematics and a Ph.D. in
    Business Economics from Harvard University


    Greg Memo ,(eMachine) Senior Vice President, Products,
    Marketing &Web
    Former president at Compaq
    MBA degree from San Jose State University and a
    bachelor's degree in industrial engineering from Arizona
    State University.
Management
    Bruce K. Riggs, Senior Vice President, Operations and
    Customer care
    Former senior vice president of Quanta Computer Inc and Dell
    bachelor's degree in Economics and Spanish at Lawrence
    University MBA from from Indiana University




    Bruce W. Smith, senior vice president, professional line
    Former senior vice president of Equant, a global
    telecommunications-services
    master's degree in history from the University of Virginia
    bachelor's degree in history from The Johns Hopkins University
Management

    Dan Stevenson, Vice President, Direct
    Joined Gateway in 2004
    Former senior director at Apple Computer
    MBA from Harvard University and a bachelor's in accounting
    from Purdue University



    Mike Zimmerman,(eMachine) Senior Vice President, Customer
    Care Services & Quality Assurance
    Former vice president and corporate planning at BestBuy
    Bachelor's degree in business administration and marketing from
    Northwood University.
Corporate Goals

 Profitably grow PC business
 Diversify revenue
 Increase gross margin with consumer
  electronics products
 Reduce cost structure
Modified Strategies
   Multi-branding
   Keep eMachine’s original marketing strategy
   Closed 188 Gateway owned retail stores
   Channel through big retailers
   New manufacturing model
   International markets (Japan, Mexico)
   Consolidated supply base
   Decrease employees from 7400-1900
Go-to-market strategy
Distribution Channels

 eMachines    brand sold worldwide by retailers
 Gateway products directly sold online and by
  phone
 Gateway products sold in Canada, U.S.,
  Mexico, and Japan by retailers
 Professional line (PCs, servers, service) sold
  directly to organizations by sales force
Breakdown of Sales

                    BreakDown of Sales

         90,000
         80,000
         70,000
         60,000
 Sales




         50,000                                    2005
         40,000                                    2004
         30,000
         20,000
         10,000
              0
                  Direct   Professional   Retail
                           Distribution
Net Income

                                           Net Income

                600
                400
                200
 Net Income




                  0
                      1997

                             1998

                                    1999

                                            2000

                                                    2001

                                                           2002

                                                                  2003

                                                                         2004

                                                                                2005
               -200
                                                                                       Series1
               -400
               -600
               -800
              -1000
              -1200
                                                   Year
Earning Per Share

                                   EPS

       2

       1

       0
 EPS




              98

                    99




                                    02

                                          03




                                                    05
        97




                         00

                              01




                                               04
       -1                                                Series1
       19

             19

                   19

                        20

                             20

                                   20

                                         20

                                              20

                                                   20
       -2

       -3

       -4
                                  Year
Price to Book Value

                   Price to Book Value

       7
       6
       5
       4
 P/B




                                                Series1
       3
       2
       1
       0
           1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
                         Year
Price/Earnings

                                P/E Ratio

             60
             50
             40
 P/E Ratio




             30
                                                        Series1
             20
             10
              0
             -10   1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

                                 Year
Return on Equity

                            ROE

        6
        5
        4
        3
 ROE




        2
                                                 Series1
        1
        0
       -1   1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
       -2
       -3
                          Year
Current Price

Last: US$ 3.150    Net Change: US$ 0.000 % Change: 0.00%

Open              3.150       Bid
High              3.190       Ask

Low               3.130       EPS           0.20

Volume            2,314,700   E/P           15.7

52-week H         6.920       Indicated     0
                              annual div
52-week L         2.350       Yield         0
Current Ratios

 P/E Ratio9.26
 Beta Coefficient1.87
 Earnings per Share0.34
 Market Cap (billion)1.17 B
 Shares Outstanding371,165,000
Ratios
EPS Analysis                 2003         2004       2005
Q1                          -0.62        -0.51     -0.01
Q2                          -0.22        -0.91      0.05
Q3                          -0.43        -0.16      0.04
Q4                          -0.35        -0.02      0.05
Year                        -1.62        -1.60     0.13

Return on Equity          This Company   Ind. Average       S&P 500
Q2:2005                    -21.04        26.68              14.07
Q2:2004                   -125.78        21.92              13.78
Q2:2003                    -33.70        18.71               9.00

Consensus EPS Estimate*
          Q3 FY05             2005(E)            2006(E)
              0.04             0.13              0.20
Financial Statement

 Income  statement
 Balance sheet
 Cash flow statement
One-Year Price Chart
Against Market

Standard and Poor's 500 Computer Hardware Index
Five Year Performance
Share Repurchase

 Repurchase   of Preferred Stock and
  Convertible Note 2004 from America Online,
 Series A and C Preferred Stock with a par
  value of $400 million plus 2.7 million
  common shares, for $315.6 million in cash
  and credits.
Value Driver

 Profitable eMachine brand sector
 eMashine’s profitable operating model
 International market

                 Underminded by
 Failure of integration of the two companies
 Competition in international market
Forecasting

 Opportunity   to grow in international markets
 Maintain relationship with the big buyers
 Let us entertain you” is the new mantra of

computer industry. Previously, companies
focused solely on creating technology
 Competition:

   Dell, Apple, HP
Competitive Landscape
Current Events

 Closed  three federal deals valued more than
  $20 million
 $1.7 million deal with California Highway
  Patrol (CHP)
 Hyper-threaded dual-core added
 Enters strategic alliance with LEAF Financial
  and Merrill Lynch
Philip Fisher Approach
   Production,Marketing, Research and Financial skills
        Weak
   The People Factor
        Haven’t been with GTW for a long time
   Investment characteristics
        Somewhat diversified
   Price of the investment
        Low
Conclusion




  Weak Hold

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (20)

The ballistae '13 april lc day review
The ballistae '13 april lc day reviewThe ballistae '13 april lc day review
The ballistae '13 april lc day review
 
The renaissance '13 april lc day review
The renaissance '13 april lc day reviewThe renaissance '13 april lc day review
The renaissance '13 april lc day review
 
Assessment4
Assessment4Assessment4
Assessment4
 
Bit iit submission_form11
Bit iit submission_form11Bit iit submission_form11
Bit iit submission_form11
 
The hobbits
The hobbitsThe hobbits
The hobbits
 
Vistaar
VistaarVistaar
Vistaar
 
Raising Training
Raising TrainingRaising Training
Raising Training
 
Towards a System Support of Collaborative Knowledge Work
Towards a System Support of Collaborative Knowledge WorkTowards a System Support of Collaborative Knowledge Work
Towards a System Support of Collaborative Knowledge Work
 
BIT
BITBIT
BIT
 
ppt
pptppt
ppt
 
The millennials!!
The millennials!!The millennials!!
The millennials!!
 
The millennials updates 15.9.2014
The millennials updates   15.9.2014The millennials updates   15.9.2014
The millennials updates 15.9.2014
 
教學設計
教學設計教學設計
教學設計
 
Bible study format test
Bible study format testBible study format test
Bible study format test
 
Six sigma
Six sigma Six sigma
Six sigma
 
Article41
Article41Article41
Article41
 
Trajectory
TrajectoryTrajectory
Trajectory
 
Vision 2015
Vision 2015Vision 2015
Vision 2015
 
15 sept aug updates bd
15 sept aug updates bd15 sept aug updates bd
15 sept aug updates bd
 
Connect and commitment
Connect and commitmentConnect and commitment
Connect and commitment
 

Similar to 417 pc 05-3_e

ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdb
ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdbammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdb
ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdbAmmarRaziq6
 
Why Apple & Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?
Why Apple &  Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?Why Apple &  Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?
Why Apple & Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?Rudra P Ghosh, LIII
 
Lenovo Case Study - The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturer
Lenovo Case Study -  The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturerLenovo Case Study -  The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturer
Lenovo Case Study - The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturerOliver Gottschalk
 
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08Ganesh Kandalkar
 
Apple vs Microsoft
Apple vs MicrosoftApple vs Microsoft
Apple vs MicrosoftMary Martino
 
business research project
business research projectbusiness research project
business research projectSaumya Saxena
 
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer Engineer
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer EngineerComputer Engineer.pdfComputer Engineer
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer EngineerChristina Berger
 
Dell case study (management)
Dell case study (management)Dell case study (management)
Dell case study (management)Vineeth Kamisetty
 
Dell incorporate
Dell incorporateDell incorporate
Dell incorporateshakir27
 
Global project
Global projectGlobal project
Global projectcomsats
 
Intel & ARM: Strategic Comparison
Intel & ARM: Strategic ComparisonIntel & ARM: Strategic Comparison
Intel & ARM: Strategic ComparisonToby Allen
 

Similar to 417 pc 05-3_e (20)

Apple inc ppt final
Apple inc ppt finalApple inc ppt final
Apple inc ppt final
 
ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdb
ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdbammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdb
ammar.pdf nshshshsbsbsbdbbxbdbdbdbbdbdbdbdbdbdb
 
Why Apple & Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?
Why Apple &  Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?Why Apple &  Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?
Why Apple & Dell manufacture all their products in selective asian countries?
 
Dill
DillDill
Dill
 
Lenovo Case Study - The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturer
Lenovo Case Study -  The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturerLenovo Case Study -  The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturer
Lenovo Case Study - The raise to the global #1 PC manufacturer
 
INTEL
INTELINTEL
INTEL
 
Dell
DellDell
Dell
 
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08
Strategic Management Dbm au09 group08
 
Apple vs Microsoft
Apple vs MicrosoftApple vs Microsoft
Apple vs Microsoft
 
business research project
business research projectbusiness research project
business research project
 
Apple
AppleApple
Apple
 
Intel case study
Intel case studyIntel case study
Intel case study
 
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer Engineer
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer EngineerComputer Engineer.pdfComputer Engineer
Computer Engineer.pdfComputer Engineer
 
Dell Direct Case Study
Dell Direct Case StudyDell Direct Case Study
Dell Direct Case Study
 
Dell case study (management)
Dell case study (management)Dell case study (management)
Dell case study (management)
 
Lenovo
LenovoLenovo
Lenovo
 
Dell incorporate
Dell incorporateDell incorporate
Dell incorporate
 
Global project
Global projectGlobal project
Global project
 
Intel & ARM: Strategic Comparison
Intel & ARM: Strategic ComparisonIntel & ARM: Strategic Comparison
Intel & ARM: Strategic Comparison
 
Dell Case analysis
Dell Case analysisDell Case analysis
Dell Case analysis
 

417 pc 05-3_e

  • 1. PC Makers Presenters: Oana Constantin Kevin Ridinger Adam Svoboda Cindy Xia
  • 2. Agenda • Industry Analysis • Company Analysis • Dell, Inc. • Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. • Gateway, Inc.
  • 3. Industry Definition • The personal computer industry consists mostly of assembling and selling: • Desktops & Notebooks • Servers & Mainframes • Workstations & Thin Clients • Supercomputers • Mass Storage Devices • Network Equipment • Peripherals • Handheld Devices
  • 4. Nature of Industry Floppy, CD/DVD Drive Hard-drive Motherboard & CPU Power Source & Extra Cables Peripherals Case
  • 5. Industry History (1/2) • Start of the industry: 1975. MITS Altair 8080 – First personal computer • Hits maturity by the mid-1990s
  • 6. Industry History (2/2) • New developments beginning with late-1990s: • Rapid decline in PC prices  Consequently decrease in gross profit margins • Acceleration in the product cycle  Faster depreciation of components and finished good inventories • Success of direct-sales/build-to-order strategy  Remodeling of the value chain • Mergers and Acquisitions  HP/Compaq, Lenovo/IBM
  • 7. 1995 Worldwide Market Share Compaq IBM Dell 3% 3% HP 3% 7% Apple 4% NEC 47% Packard-Bell Fujitsu/ICL 8% Acer 4% Toshiba 3% Other 8% 10%
  • 8. 2004 Worldwide Market Share 16% 6% HP/Compaq IBM Dell 55% Fujitsu/Siemens 18% Acer Other 1% 4%
  • 9. PC Market Growth US and Worldwide PC Market Growth 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2010 U.S. PC Unit Sales (#M) 6.6 9.5 21.4 46.0 48.3 56.6 66.7 U.S. PC Dollar Dales ($B) 17.2 24.5 56.8 86.9 78.1 84.5 86.1 Worldwide PC Unit Sales (#M) 11 24.2 70.1 130 149 181 249 Worldwide PC Dollar Sales ($B) 29.5 71.3 155 247 243 270 302
  • 10. PC Unit Sales by Region (millions)
  • 11. PC Market Segments (Million Units) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2010 Servers (U.S.) Servers (Worldwide) Desktops (U.S.) Desktops (Worldwide) Mobile PCs (U.S.) Mobile PCs (Worldwide)
  • 12. PC Market Segment Growth Worldwide PC Market Segment Growth for Desktops, Mobile PCs, and Servers 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2010 Desktops 89.9% 81% 74% 68% 63% 55% Mobile PCs 9.9% 17% 22% 27% 32% 39% Servers 0.02% 2% 4% 5% 5% 6%
  • 13. PC Market Share of Leading Vendors 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2003 2005 2010 Dell (USA) HP/Compaq (USA) Dell (WW) HP/Compaq (WW)
  • 14. Business Models • Big Box • Direct • White Box
  • 15. Big Box Model • Traditional approach, through “brick and mortar” retailers and own stores • Distributors purchase assembled, ready-to-use computers • Allows consumers to touch and feel the product • Higher cost due to high inventories, longer distribution channel • Profit margin eroded
  • 16. Direct Model • Take customized orders directly from end consumers • Assemble systems as orders come in • Ship the product direct to customers • More efficient, JIT inventory system • Lower costs due both to inventory savings and distribution by-passing • Savings are passed to customers
  • 17. White Box Model • Combination of Big Box and Direct Sales Strategies • Own distribution facilities • Allows consumers to customize their products while giving them a phisical location to purchase • Highly fragmented, estimated to more than 500 unbranded PC makers • Often sell directly to small businesses looking for a significant price break rather than a big brand machine.
  • 18. PC Industry Value Chain, 2004
  • 19. Models of Production for US Sold PCs
  • 20. Industry Performance • NASDAQ Computer Index (IXCO)  Includes 603 securities from categories: Computer Hardware Computer Software Semiconductors Computer Services
  • 21. Industry Performance: 1 Year Nasdaq Computer Index (IXCO)
  • 22. Industry Performance: 10 Year Nasdaq Computer Index (IXCO)
  • 23. Industry Key Measures • Profit Margin • Sales Growth • Market Share Growth • Valuation Ratios • Business Capital Spending
  • 24. Industry Statistics Valuation Ratios Financial Strength P/E 22.96 Quick Ratio 1.34 P/Sales 1.85 Current Ratio 1.61 P/Book 6.83 LT Debt/Equity 0.31 Total Debt/Equity 0.38 Profitability Management Effectiveness Gross Margin 31.33% ROI 19.28% Operating Margin 9.22% ROA 9.94% Net Profit Margin 10.68% ROE 31.35%
  • 25. Recent Developments • Lenovo’s buyout of IBM’s PC unit. • Propelled the company on 3rd place in terms of worldwide market share (7.6%) for the 2nd quarter of 2005 • Apple switches to Intel processors • Lenovo investing $84m in new R&D center in North Carolina • Dell lowering earnings forecast, plus a $300m charge to repair faulty circuit boards • Hewlett-Packard has hired Dell’s CIO, Randy Mott • Soaring Apple stock price due to strong iPod sales
  • 26. Apple – One Year Stock Price
  • 27. Apple Sales Growth (millions)
  • 28. Future Trends – Industry • Pricing competition will become more aggressive  Exit by some smaller players  Further consolidation through mergers and acquisitions • PC shipments expected to grow at 6% per year, but revenues will remain almost flat  Forces players to further innovate and expand product offering such as media center computers and tablet PCs • Faster growth in Europe and Asia segments  Build strong marketing strategy targeting these segments to capture market share
  • 29. Future Trends – Technology • Continued shift from desktops to notebooks • Shift towards wireless devices • Adaptive hardware technology to support PC virtualization • Continuous movement toward miniaturization and digital enhancement of portable music players and phones
  • 30. Dell Inc. Presented by: Kevin Ridinger
  • 31. Fast Facts about Dell Inc.  Trades on NASDAQ, symbol: DELL  One share bought for $8.50 at IPO in 1988 would be worth $3,800 today.  Employs over 61,400 people  Revenues totaled over $52.8 billion for the last four quarters  Market Position: #1 in U.S., #3 in Japan, #2 in Europe  7 Manufacturing centres spanning the globe, located in United States(3), Brazil, Europe (Ireland), Malaysia, and China.  Nearly one out of every five standards-based computer system sold in the world today is a Dell.
  • 32. Dell Timeline 1984: Michael Dell founds Dell Computer Corporation 1987: International expansion begins with opening of subsidiary in United Kingdom 1988: Dell conducts initial public offering of company stock (3.5 million shares at $8.5 each) 1993: Enters into Asia-Pacific region with subsidiaries in Australia and Japan 1996: Company begins major push into the server market 2000: Company sales via Internet reach $50 million per day 2001: For the first time, Dell ranks No. 1 in global market share 2004: Kevin Rollins becomes Dell's next chief executive officer. Michael Dell moves to Chairman of the Board
  • 33. Management  Michael Dell – Chairman of the Board (founded company in 1984)  Kevin B Rollins – President and CEO since July 2004 (prior he was president and COO of Dell Americas – joined in 1994)  William J. Amelio – Sr. VP Asia-Pacific/Japan (since 2001)  Paul D. Bell – Sr. VP Europe, Middle East & Africa (since 1996)  Joseph A. Marengi, Sr. VP, Americas (since 1996, came from Novell) Many of Dell’s current management came to the company around 1996-97. Based on biographical evidence, many were lured from other high-tech companies, including Novell, HP, Apple, Sun and Texas Instruments.
  • 34. Strategy  Uses the direct business model (reliant on very efficient manufacturing and supply chain management)  Helps turnover inventory every four days (on average)  Helps ensure the latest technology is offered without keeping outdated products on the ‘shelves’.  Provides customers with single point of accountability  Standards-based (do not support proprietary technologies)  Collaboration with strategic partners  Positively affects both input prices and product leadership  Adding a significant layer of innovation (value-added processes)
  • 35. Dell’s strategic corporate initiatives for the future  Continued Global Growth  Growth outside of U.S. in largest countries at 30%  Product Leadership  Ex. integrated solutions to businesses (servers, desktops, and now printing)  Enhancing the Customer Experience  Dell value-added services (anti-spyware and virus software and support)  Developing a Winning Culture:  Essential for integrating Dell’s subsidiaries in over 47 countries
  • 37. Sources of Revenue  Dell designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and supports the follow products: •Servers •Notebook Computers •Storage •Desktop Computers •Workstations •Printing and Imaging •Networking •Software and Peripherals •Dell also offers a variety of services from development and support to professional and fully managed solutions. Dell also has a financial services division which is a joint venture between Dell and CIT group. It organizes financing alternatives for clients
  • 38. Sales Mix (by Region & Product line) Product-specific
  • 40. Revenue Growth Net Revenue Net Revenue (in 70000 Year Millions) 2001 $31,888 60000 2002 $31,168 Revenue (in Millions) 50000 2003 $35,404 2004 $41,444 40000 2005 $49,205 30000 2006 $55,000 2007 $60,000 20000 10000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fiscal Year
  • 41. Costs  Input costs from suppliers (COGS)  Continuing drop in PC prices but what about Dell’s gross margin?  2001: 17.7%, 2002: 17.9% 2003: 18.2% 2004: 18.3% 2005: 18.6%  Operating Expenses  - marketing, sales and admin. - R&D  Almost zero long-term debt  no service payments
  • 42. Earnings Per Share $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 $0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year 2006 FY Forecast: $1.59
  • 43. Market Share by Region Fiscal Year Ended Annual Market Share: 30-Jan-05 30-Jan-04 31-Jan-03 1-Feb-02 Americas 29.10% 27.70% 24.80% 20.30% Europe 11.70% 10.50% 9.60% 9.00% Asia Pacific-Japan 8.30% 7.20% 5.90% 5.00% Worldwide 17.80% 16.70% 14.90% 12.70%
  • 44. Key Financial Analysis Figures  Number of Shares Outstanding  2.4 billion  Consistently been declining since 2001 (2.7B)  Cash and Short-term Investments/Share  As of Q2 2006: $3.77/share  ROE: 2001: 39.78%, 2002: 24.36% , 2003: 44.32%, 2004: 47.53%, 2005: 47.62% Ratios:  Book value/share = $2.70, Price/Book = 11  Price/Sales* = 1.4 P/E* = 21 *Calculated using P = $29
  • 45. Financial Statements  Balance Sheet  Income Statement  Cash flow Statement
  • 46. Stock Options As of Jan 28, 2005 As of Jan 31, 2003  Average exercise price has steadily been increasing ($28.99 in 2005, compared to $8.78 in 2001)
  • 47. Options (cont.) Impact to earnings using fair value
  • 48. One Year Stock Price
  • 49. 10 Year Trading History
  • 50. Performance Comparison 2 Years IXIC = NASDAQ IXK = Nasdaq computers index
  • 51. Model Valuation  With the residual income model:  Dell’s price should be between $15 and $25 depending on the assumptions used.  SinceDell does not pay a dividend we cannot use dividend models to calculate a price.  The FCFE model also does not work very well with the stocks that are in Dell’s industry  Produces a price of $6 if the same k from the RI model is used.
  • 52. How does Dell Measure up? Statistic Industry Average DELL P/E Ratio (ttm) 28.6 21.14* Price/Book 10.5 12.75 Net Profit Margin 6.7% 9.2% Price to FCF 38.5 15* Return on Equity (ttm) 37.0% 59.18% Price to Sales 1.81 1.4* *Lower is better As of Nov 9, 2005
  • 53. Value Drivers (cont.)  Profits  Company has turned a profit year after year.  Continued expense reduction and increasing margins will help contribute to higher profits.  Especially as international centres recently expanded into mature.  Share buy back and continued reduction in gratuitous option issuance to execs  Has a growing and already significant international presence  through diversifying it spreads risk of national economic/demand slowdowns
  • 54. Value Drivers (Cont.)  Growth  Market share available abroad in Asia-Pacific and Europe  E-commerce forecasted to increase especially in Asia  Outside of the US, growth was over 30%. Has been strong for many years  Product/service expansion  Printing and Imaging revenues rose from 0 to 1.2B in 2005 in just under 2 years!  Positioning themselves strategically within the emerging digital TV segment, making partnerships with Microsoft and Intel  Technology Changes/PC Replacement  Release of Windows Longhorn – may spur people to buy new computers with 64-bit capabilities  More than 35% of users plan to replace their computers in coming years (long-term avg. 20%)
  • 55. Factors to Consider  Quarterly earning announcements  Investors have historically reacted drastically when quarterly numbers are released  Seasonality and cycles associated with the PC market (almost 60% of sales attributable to PCs)  Foreign Exchange rate risks (38% of revenue from outside U.S.)  hedging and derivatives  repatriation of profits (in Q4 2005 $4.1 billion)  R&D investment is lower than competitors which might hurt Dell in the long-run (especially in service sector)
  • 56. Recommendation  Analysts:Depression due to one quarter’s earnings forecast is a • Recent Price buying opportunity. Current Year Next Year Earnings Est Jan-06 Jan-07 •Attractive price vs. Competitors Avg. Estimate 1.59 1.87 • The company of Analysts to make enormous amounts of money No. continues 33 32 • Limited-Downside potential for price (Share buyback) Low Estimate 1.55 1.80 High Estimate 1.65 1.95 •Expansion efforts in Asia-Pacific and Europe continue to show value Three Months •Good management (experienced) have led Dell on a path of continued Current Month Last Month Two Months Ago Ago growth Buy Strong 8 9 9 8 Buy 11 13 12 15 •Value Drivers (growth & profits) are strong Hold 12 9 9 7 Sell 1 0 0 0 Strong Sell 0 0 0 0
  • 58. Background  Founded in 1939 by Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard  First Product: Audio Oscillator  First Customer: Walt Disney  Went Public on: Nov 6, 1957
  • 59. Management/Executives  Mark Hurd - 2005 - Chief Executive Officer and President. President and CEO of NCR since 2003 (25 years of experience)  Gilles Bouchard - Exec Vice President PSG (in Hp since 1989)  Vyomesh Joshi - Exec Vice President IPG since 1980  Randall D. Mott - Exec Vice President since 2005, with dell for 3 years  IN GENERAL: MOSTLY NEW BUT EXPERIENCED
  • 60. Board of Directors  Lawrence T. Babbio, Jr. – 2002  Patricia C. Dunn - 1998  Richard A. Hackborn - 1992  Mark V. Hurd - 2005  Dr. George A. Keyworth II - 1986  Tom Perkins - 2005  Robert L. Ryan - 2004  Lucille S. Salhany - 2002  Robert P. Wayman - 2005
  • 61. Current Events  HP takeover of Compaq - $25bn  New CEO – Mark Hurd  2005 – Profits fall  Compaq acquisition complete  Several other acquisitions have taken place
  • 62. Snapshot – Compaq Merger  May 7, 2002, largest merger computer industry merger in history  $25 billion  1 Compaq share = 0.63 HP share  Attempt to eliminate costs by reducing overlap in sectors  Was opposed by both Compaq and HP (family)
  • 63. Corporate Objectives  Customer loyalty  Profit  Market leadership  Growth  Employees  Leaders  Global citizenship
  • 64. Products and Services  Desktops and Workstations  Notebooks and Tablet PCs  Printers and multifunctional machines  Handhelds and calculators  Monitors and projectors  Fax, Copiers and Scanners  Digital Photography  Storage  Servers  Networking  Software
  • 65. Market Position  #1 globally in the inkjet, all-in-one and single-function printers, mono and colour laser printers, large format printing, scanners, print servers and ink and laser supplies*  #1 globally in x86*, Windows®*, Linux®*, UNIX* and blade servers  #1 in total disk and storage systems  #2 globally in notebook PCs  #1 globally in Pocket PCs  #1 in customer support  #1 position in customer loyalty for ProLiant servers
  • 66. HP Business Sectors  (PSG) Personal Systems Group  (IPG) Imaging and Printing Group  (ESS) Enterprise Storage and Servers  (HPFS) HP Financial Services  (HPS) HP Services  Software  Corporate Investments
  • 67. (PSG) Personal Systems Group  Commercial and consumer PC’s  Workstations, handheld computer devices and digital entertainment systems  Calculators  Software services for commercial and consumer markets
  • 68. (IPG) Imaging and Printing Group Printing, imaging and publishing devices Both for home users and businesses
  • 69. (ESS) Enterprise Storage and Servers  Storage and server products  Low and high end scalable servers e.g. Superdome  Enterprise arrays, storage area networks
  • 70. (HPFS) HP Financial Services  Leasing, financing, utility and asset recovery services  Specializedfinancial services for small/medium businesses and educational and governmental entities.
  • 71. (HPS) HP Services  Technology and consulting  Integration services  Managed services
  • 72. Software  Software solutions including support  Infrastructure, operations and applications management
  • 73. Corporate Investments  Labs and ‘business incubation’ projects.  Revenue is from selling network infrastructure products: enhancing computer and enterprise solutions.
  • 74. % Revenue byofSector % Revenue 35 30 ESS 25 HPS 20 % Software 15 10 PSG 5 IPG 0 HP Financial 2004 2003 2002 Corporate Investments Year 2004 2003 2002 ESS 18.70 19.78 14.10 HPS 17.01 16.75 12.27 Software 1.14 1.05 0.95 PSG 30.39 28.75 19.90 IPG 29.87 30.59 27.60 HP Financial 2.34 2.60 2.31 Corporate Investments 0.55 0.47 0.39
  • 75. % Profit by Sector % of Profit 120 ESS 100 HPS 80 Software 60 % PSG 40 IPG 20 HP Financial 0 Corporate Investments -20 2004 2003 2002 Year 2004 2003 2002 ESS 3.27 2.93 -10.27 HPS 23.85 28.08 29.72 Software -2.74 -3.92 -11.61 PSG 3.97 0.45 -7.87 IPG 72.65 74.14 112.24 HP Financial 2.36 1.63 -4.47 Corporate Investments -3.36 3.32 -7.74
  • 76. Earnings by Region Revenue overview by region (in billions, for fiscal year 2003) Europe, Middle East, Africa United States 39% 40% Americas (excluding U.S.) 6% Japan Asia Pacific 4% 11%
  • 78. Analysis in % increase/decrease 9 months of 2004 - 2005 Net Revenue 9.000957003 Net Expenses 8.931591637 Earnings from Operations 10.31313819 Net Earnings -17.62261014 % increase/decrease in 2003-2004 2002-2003 Revenue 9.37 29.11 Costs 7.86 21.81 Earnings on Operations 45.96 386.17 Net Earnings 37.73 381.17
  • 79. Shares 000’ 2004 2003 2002 2001 Balance 2,910,760 3,042,761 3,043,733 1,938,828 Issuance 111463 Repurchases 172468 39780 39623 Current – 2,907,000,000 Further $4bn buyback approved
  • 80. Financials  Dividend - $0.08 per quarter  No stock splits since Dec 2000 (2 for 1)  Year Est. EPS (10/05) 1.56  Price/Earnings (Trailing)18.695  Earnings Growth Rate17.200  Relative P/E1.053  Estimated P/E18.300
  • 81. The stock as of 10 Nov 2005 52 Wk High 29.51 Last 28.23 USD Date 20/09/2005 Change -0.31 52 Wk Low 18.85 % Change (1) -1.09% Date 11/11/2004 High 28.63 Dividend 0.08 Open 28.4 Div Date 12/09/2005 Low 28.21 Market Cap 80,879 M Net Volume 7,242,200 P/E Ratio 26.89 EPS 1.05
  • 82.
  • 83.
  • 84.
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 88.
  • 89. Revenue and EPS (2004)
  • 92.
  • 94. Factors affecting future performance  Competition  Inventory management  ‘Staying on top of technological development’  Intellectual property rights  Economic uncertainty  Terrorism  Political changes  ‘business disruptions’
  • 95. Inventory and Distribution  Big Box  BTO and CTO combined  High end and low end sales
  • 96. Competitors by Sector  PSG – Dell, IBM. Acer and Fujitsu (Europe)  IPG – Very pricing competitive. Xerox, Epson, Lexmark  ESS – Rapid technological innovation. IBM, EMC, Sun Micro  HPS – IBM, EDS. Competitive in support and Consulting.  Software – BMC, Veritas, Mercury, IBM  HPFS – Financing companies: IBM Global Financing, Banks and Financial Institutions
  • 97. Moving Forward?  R&D – Constant at $3,500million  Revenue increasing BUT so are costs  Profits are sensitive to US$ exchange rate  Several Business acquisitions  $5billion authorized for share repurchases ($3b remaining)  Innovative and popular products  Predicted fourth Q $22.2-$22.4bn Revenue – Up 10%
  • 98. Acquisitions  Snapfish – Online photo service  Scitex Vision – Super-wide digital printing  RLX Technologies – Software provider  Peregrine Systems – Management software  Compaq – PC supplier  ApplQ – open storage area network managemen
  • 99. Market Leaders  The largest consumer IT company  The world's largest SMB IT company  A leading enterprise IT company  Alsohas a significant presence in the public sector as well as health and education
  • 100. Philip Fisher  Production, Marketing, Research and Financial skills Good  The People Factor New and old leaders - experienced  Investment characteristics Very diversified and continually evolving  Price of the investment Medium
  • 101. Conclusion and Recommendation  2005 is a disappointing year  New acquisitions bring a positive light  Share buy-back WEAK BUY (wait till final results and evaluate!)
  • 103. Values Caring, honesty, teamwork, respect, aggressiveness, efficiency, fun and common sense. --- Offering products directly to customers, providing them with the best value for their money and unparalleled service and support
  • 104. Company Background  Founded in 1985 in a farmhouse by Ted Waitt  Went public in 1993 traded on NASDAQ  Started trading on NY Stock Ex in 1997  3rd largest PC maker in U.S.  In March 2004, acquired eMachines ($235 million)  Currently 1,900 employees  6% of US market share in consumer segment
  • 105. Distribution Channels  Direct distribution: web, phone, retail stores  Indirect distribution: retailers like Costco  Limited resellers in Canada and Mexico
  • 106. Products  Computers desktops, notebooks, all-in-ones, professional PC Systems (networking, servers and storage)  Computer accessories Mouse, storage, memories, monitors, modems  Consumer electronics digital TVs, digital camera, MP3 players, DVD players  Software
  • 107. Competitive Strategies in the 90’s Gateway’ big box strategy and JIT Direct +retail Competitors: Dell’s build-to-order, direct only, JIT Compaq’s Build-to-forecast, retail only
  • 108. Acquired ALR Acquired Advanced Logic Research (ALR) in 1997 and announced its entry into corporate network server market Channeled through own retailing stores
  • 109. Strategies in the 21st Century • Encountered big loss from 2001 failure of cost leadership strategy higher cost and lower margin slow inventory turnover • “Branded integrator” offered the fullest range of product and service • B2B 2003
  • 110. Acquiring eMachines  Acquired eMachines in March 2004  50 million new Gateway shares and $30 million cash
  • 111. eMachines Philosophy  Build affordable computers for everyone – no compromise PCs that deliver incredible value and performance. Market  budget-conscious consumers Products  PCs and peripheral displays Distribution Channels  3rd party retailers: BestBuy, Office Depot
  • 112. eMachines  2cnd largest vendor of desktop through US retailers  low-cost, full-featured computer systems  $1.1 billions of sales in 2003  International market in Japan and UK  Wayne Inouye, who joined eMachines in 2001 and quickly turned it into money- making business
  • 113. What does eMashine bring to GTW  Low cost distribution model and retail relationaship  Highly efficient and profitable operation model  Market shares in consumer desktop sector  International growth opportunities  Management team
  • 114. After Acquisition  eMachines CEO Wayne Inouye was named CEO of Gateway, succeeding Ted Waitt, who remains chairman and the company's largest stockholder 28.3% shares and plays an active role in long-term strategic direction, product development and marketing plans.  Combined management team from both Gateway and eMachine  A few new members joined management team
  • 115. Management Wayne R. Inouye (eMachine) CEO and President Former president & CEO of eMachine since 2001 Senior vice president of PC merchandising for BestBuy Scott Bauhofer, Senior vice president Former senior vice president of BestBuy bachelor's in history from San Francisco State University
  • 116. Management  Bob Davidson (eMachine) Senior vice president U.S. retail Executive of eMachine P&C development Former vice president of BestBuy Ed Fisher (eMashine)Senior vice president international Executive of eMachine,former Intel sales director MBA Northwestern University's Kellogg Graduate School of Management
  • 117. Management  John Goldsberry, (eMachine)senior vice president, CFO Joined Gateway in 2004 Former CFO of eMachine, leaded the negotiation with Gateway bachelor's degree in Applied Mathematics and a Ph.D. in Business Economics from Harvard University Greg Memo ,(eMachine) Senior Vice President, Products, Marketing &Web Former president at Compaq MBA degree from San Jose State University and a bachelor's degree in industrial engineering from Arizona State University.
  • 118. Management Bruce K. Riggs, Senior Vice President, Operations and Customer care Former senior vice president of Quanta Computer Inc and Dell bachelor's degree in Economics and Spanish at Lawrence University MBA from from Indiana University Bruce W. Smith, senior vice president, professional line Former senior vice president of Equant, a global telecommunications-services master's degree in history from the University of Virginia bachelor's degree in history from The Johns Hopkins University
  • 119. Management Dan Stevenson, Vice President, Direct Joined Gateway in 2004 Former senior director at Apple Computer MBA from Harvard University and a bachelor's in accounting from Purdue University Mike Zimmerman,(eMachine) Senior Vice President, Customer Care Services & Quality Assurance Former vice president and corporate planning at BestBuy Bachelor's degree in business administration and marketing from Northwood University.
  • 120. Corporate Goals  Profitably grow PC business  Diversify revenue  Increase gross margin with consumer electronics products  Reduce cost structure
  • 121. Modified Strategies  Multi-branding  Keep eMachine’s original marketing strategy  Closed 188 Gateway owned retail stores  Channel through big retailers  New manufacturing model  International markets (Japan, Mexico)  Consolidated supply base  Decrease employees from 7400-1900
  • 123. Distribution Channels  eMachines brand sold worldwide by retailers  Gateway products directly sold online and by phone  Gateway products sold in Canada, U.S., Mexico, and Japan by retailers  Professional line (PCs, servers, service) sold directly to organizations by sales force
  • 124. Breakdown of Sales BreakDown of Sales 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Sales 50,000 2005 40,000 2004 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Direct Professional Retail Distribution
  • 125. Net Income Net Income 600 400 200 Net Income 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -200 Series1 -400 -600 -800 -1000 -1200 Year
  • 126. Earning Per Share EPS 2 1 0 EPS 98 99 02 03 05 97 00 01 04 -1 Series1 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 -2 -3 -4 Year
  • 127. Price to Book Value Price to Book Value 7 6 5 4 P/B Series1 3 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
  • 128. Price/Earnings P/E Ratio 60 50 40 P/E Ratio 30 Series1 20 10 0 -10 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
  • 129. Return on Equity ROE 6 5 4 3 ROE 2 Series1 1 0 -1 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -2 -3 Year
  • 130. Current Price Last: US$ 3.150 Net Change: US$ 0.000 % Change: 0.00% Open 3.150 Bid High 3.190 Ask Low 3.130 EPS 0.20 Volume 2,314,700 E/P 15.7 52-week H 6.920 Indicated 0 annual div 52-week L 2.350 Yield 0
  • 131. Current Ratios  P/E Ratio9.26  Beta Coefficient1.87  Earnings per Share0.34  Market Cap (billion)1.17 B  Shares Outstanding371,165,000
  • 132. Ratios EPS Analysis 2003 2004 2005 Q1 -0.62 -0.51 -0.01 Q2 -0.22 -0.91 0.05 Q3 -0.43 -0.16 0.04 Q4 -0.35 -0.02 0.05 Year -1.62 -1.60 0.13 Return on Equity This Company Ind. Average S&P 500 Q2:2005 -21.04 26.68 14.07 Q2:2004 -125.78 21.92 13.78 Q2:2003 -33.70 18.71 9.00 Consensus EPS Estimate* Q3 FY05 2005(E) 2006(E) 0.04 0.13 0.20
  • 133. Financial Statement  Income statement  Balance sheet  Cash flow statement
  • 135. Against Market Standard and Poor's 500 Computer Hardware Index
  • 137. Share Repurchase  Repurchase of Preferred Stock and Convertible Note 2004 from America Online,  Series A and C Preferred Stock with a par value of $400 million plus 2.7 million common shares, for $315.6 million in cash and credits.
  • 138. Value Driver  Profitable eMachine brand sector  eMashine’s profitable operating model  International market Underminded by  Failure of integration of the two companies  Competition in international market
  • 139. Forecasting  Opportunity to grow in international markets  Maintain relationship with the big buyers  Let us entertain you” is the new mantra of computer industry. Previously, companies focused solely on creating technology  Competition: Dell, Apple, HP
  • 141. Current Events  Closed three federal deals valued more than $20 million  $1.7 million deal with California Highway Patrol (CHP)  Hyper-threaded dual-core added  Enters strategic alliance with LEAF Financial and Merrill Lynch
  • 142. Philip Fisher Approach  Production,Marketing, Research and Financial skills Weak  The People Factor Haven’t been with GTW for a long time  Investment characteristics Somewhat diversified  Price of the investment Low

Editor's Notes

  1. Yearly PC sales for the U.S. and the main regions of the world are summarized. North America will remain the largest region until 2008. All figures are in millions of units.
  2. This PC forecast consists of three product segments—PC servers, desktop PCs and mobile or battery-powered PCs. Mobile PCs are dominated by notebook PCs. The desktop PC segment will remain the largest PC segment, but both PC servers and mobile PCs are taking market share from the desktop PC segment. Mobile PCs include all laptop, notebook and other mobile PCs. The emerging tablet PCs and wearable PCs are also include in the mobile PC segment. PDAs and similar products such are palm computers are excluded.
  3. Dell and HP are currently the leading PC manufacturers and they will remain the top 2 vendors for at least the next five years. The next table shows the historical PC sales and future projections of these two companies. Note that the PC sales of Compaq and HP are combined for all the years including the pre-merger years shown in the table (1990, 1995 and 2000). Dell has a much wider lead in the USA than worldwide. This is because Dell’s business model is fully developed in the USA, but remains in the start-up phase or in the early to mid-level development phase outside the USA. As Dell’s business model grows and takes hold outside the USA, Dell’s market share will strengthen considerably. Dell may not establish as high a market share outside the USA, but the share will undoubtedly grow strongly. The result is that Dell is like to widen its lead over HP in the next five years.
  4. The personal computer is a modular product whose components, peripherals, and software can be designed independently and integrated into the final system using standard technical interfaces. The modular nature of the PC enabled the creation of an industry structure marked by a high degree of specialization and separation of functions since its inception in the mid-1970s. This pattern was reinforced by IBM’s decision to rely on outside suppliers for many of the components in the original IBM PC in 1981. Thousands of firms became involved in a global production network that was loosely organized by the major PC vendors, but with fluid and shifting buyer-seller relationships. Firms generally competed in one or two market segments involving either manufacturing components, subassemblies, or complete systems; developing software; or providing sales, distribution, technical support, or other services
  5. Source: http://www.investor.reuters.com/IndustryCenter.aspx?industry=CMPTRS&target=%2findustries%2findhighlights%2findustrycenter
  6. 2 nd quarter of 2005: 1 st place: Dell (19.3%), 2 nd place HP (15.6%), according to Gartner research
  7. Direct model: better prices to consumers,
  8. Culture: helps to give universal brand recognized around the world.
  9. Interesting thing here is that if people are going to want to exercise their options they are going to have to at least maintain the current price......could be a good sign for stockholders.
  10. Recent drop in notebook prices is an example of how technology use has changed and people are buying that! Digital TV  Dell can work to sell its media centres (MS) wants to use PCs for digital medai centres.