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CHAMPION



Jonathan Sheets   Bobby Fitzpatrick
 David Tumm        David Paolella
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

โ€ข Recommendation - Nuance Technologies (NUAN) is
  a strong buy at a current range of $26-27.5 with a 6-
  12 month target of $39 (+45.1%).
โ€ข Recent drop in price ($36 to $26) provides favorable
  risk/reward opportunity
โ€ข Catalysts:
  โ€ข Short term 1Q lower revision will not prevent full year
    guidance
  โ€ข Apple upcoming Ipad 3 release
  โ€ข Voice technology hardware and software
NUANCE COMPANY

โ€ข Nuance                   โ€ข Dedication to
  Communications is          becoming a lifestyle
  the market leader is       product maker that
  speech, imaging and        transcends setting
  keypad solutions         โ€ข Android Dragon
โ€ข Licensing business       โ€ข Appleโ€™s Siri
โ€ข 4000 patents in          โ€ข Dictation
  portfolio, none set to   โ€ข Voice to text
  expire in the next 15
  years                    โ€ข Multi-level command
โ€ข 200 speech scientists    โ€ข Concurrent processes
CUSTOMERS DEPENDABILITY
โ€ข Sexiest Customers:   โ€ข   Xerox
   โ€ข   Amazon          โ€ข   Motorola
   โ€ข   Apple           โ€ข   Rogers
   โ€ข   Audi            โ€ข   Vodafone
   โ€ข   BMW             โ€ข   Vonage
   โ€ข   Ford            โ€ข   BestBuy
   โ€ข   Garmin          โ€ข   Wal-Mart
   โ€ข   HTC             โ€ข   Exxon
   โ€ข   LG              โ€ข   IBM
   โ€ข   Mercedes Benz   โ€ข   Bank of America
   โ€ข   Nokia           โ€ข   Cigna
   โ€ข   Samsung         โ€ข   The City of Zurich
   โ€ข   T-Mobile        โ€ข   Mayo Clinic
   โ€ข   Tom Tom         โ€ข   Cleveland Clinic
   โ€ข   AT&T            โ€ข   FedEx
   โ€ข   Citibank        โ€ข   United Airlines
   โ€ข   Disney          โ€ข   Wells Fargo
   โ€ข   Brother         โ€ข   US Army
   โ€ข   HP              โ€ข   Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI)
   โ€ข   Canon
   โ€ข   Dell
AREAS OF BUSINESS

          Health Care                             Enterprise
                                       โ€ข 3rd largest business segment
โ€ข Largest business segment
                                       โ€ข 75.8 million in sales (19.84%)
โ€ข 145.3 million in sales (38.03%)
                                       โ€ข 81% of segment has fixed contracts
โ€ข Non-cyclical nature provides           through 2016, this secures revenue
  market downturn protection             nicely
โ€ข 23.3% earnings growth last quarter   โ€ข 4.6% earnings growth last quarter


     Mobile & Consumer                              Imaging
โ€ข Second largest business segment       โ€ข Smallest business segment
โ€ข 108.5 million in sales (28.4%)        โ€ข 52.4 million in sales (13.71%)
โ€ข 8 largest handset makers are all      โ€ข Portable document formatting and
  customers                               applications to speed and reduce
โ€ข 10 largest auto makers are all          cost of creating, using and sharing
  customers                               documents
โ€ข 23.7% earnings growth last quarter    โ€ข 33.3% earnings growth last quarter
EXECUTIVE PROFILE

โ€ข Paul A. Ricci, CEO and Chairman of the Board;
  been with Nuance as CEO since 2000.
  โ€ข $62.33 Million
โ€ข Thomas L. Beaudoin, Chief Financial Officer; been
  with Nuance since 2008, has 30+ year of
  experience.
  โ€ข $21 million stake
โ€ข Steve Chambers, President Enterprise Division; been
  with Nuance since 2003, voted as one of the โ€œTop
  Influencers in the Speech Industryโ€
  โ€ข $12.3 million
INSIDER TRANSACTIONS

โ€ข Net Insider Selling โ€“ bonuses, retiring, need cash
โ€ข Recurring pattern of insiders (mostly directors)
  exercising stock options near year end as bonus,
  stock still goes up.

โ€ข Chambers (-$700K)
โ€ข Beaudoin (-$213K)

โ€ข CEO ($62.33 Million), CFO, and CTO still heavily
  invested in Nuance
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP

โ€ข Increasing 628 to 732 in
  9months.
โ€ข GARP (Growth at A
Reasonable Price) Funds
recognize that NUAN still
reasonably valued.
โ€ข Aggressive Growth
โ€ข Value Funds
                             โ€ข Established LT PE firm
                               invested in 2004 & 2009
                             โ€ข Two board seats
                             โ€ข Current $1.7 Billion stake
2011 ACQUISITIONS
LAST QUARTER DROP

                                         Positive View
                                      โ€ข Buying opportunity
                                       โ€ข Long-term growth
                                       โ€ข Market demand โ€œnever
                                         been greaterโ€
                                       โ€ข One-time, lower revenue
                                         because of prolonged
    Negative View                        timing deals and revenue
โ€ข Excluding revenue growth from          recognition.
  acquisitions mobile 16% from 27%.    โ€ข Will continue to maintain
โ€ข Therefore demand slowing for
  products.
                                         FY growth estimates
                                       โ€ข Product releases later in
                                         year
DCF
DCF
COMPS
                   *Does not have a comparable company in niche regarding size or business*


                                          Price       Shares
                                                                      Mkt. Value    Diluted    EV           Sales/Revenue    EBIT      EBITDA       EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
                                                      Outstanding


International Business
                              09/2011       192.25     1,160.0      223,010.0      1,204.9    241,954.0       106,448.0     20,842.0    25,704.0    11.61x     9.41x
Machines Corp.


Microsoft Corp.               12/2011         30.05    8,390.8      252,142.7      8,465.0    211,653.7        72,052.0     27,409.0    30,222.0     7.72x     7.00x


Nortel Networks Corp.         09/2011          0.02      498.2            9.6       535.0        -260.4            52.0       -225.0      -174.0          -           -


Image Recognition
                              06/2011         33.08         1.9          61.7          1.8           51.9        191.0           5.9        10.1     8.81x     5.16x
Integrated Systems S.A.


Omtool Ltd.                   12/2008          3.70         4.7          17.5            -           15.9          15.2         -2.0        -1.3          -           -


Google Inc. Cl A              12/2011       605.56       258.0      196,889.8       397.0     156,467.8        37,876.0     11,713.0    13,564.0    13.36x    11.54x


Adobe Systems Inc.            11/2011         32.46      493.8       16,028.8       503.9      14,631.5         4,216.3      1,197.1     1,467.3    12.22x     9.97x


Transcend Services Inc.       09/2011         21.85       10.7          233.6        11.1           221.3        119.1         22.7         25.7     9.74x     8.59x


Nuance Communications Inc. reports amortization of its intangible assets (patents and speech technology) that adjusts their earnings 88% lower. This gives
NUAN a P/E of 179 when in reality it is trading at 19 times earnings. Also, as a growth stock with much smaller market cap it appears quite expensive in
relation to the multiples of many of its competitors. Therefore, we found it best to use the DCF as the core reference for valuation. This list of comps is present
to reflect upon the cheapness of the software space as a whole, including NUAN.
GENERAL STATISTICS

โ€ข P/E 19
โ€ข Current Ratio 1.8
โ€ข Earnings growth between 12-25% over the last 5
  years, predominately in ascending fashion
โ€ข Sales growth between 18-20% over the last 5
  years, predominately in ascending fashion
โ€ข 80% of the company is owned by funds and
  management (55% funds, 25% management)
โ€ข RS: 91
โ€ข 34% debt
โ€ข Beta: 1.37
โ€ข ROE: 18%
MARGINS

โ€ข Huge Gross Margins, Nice EBITDA




โ€ข Net Margin only 3.5% because of huge R&D investment.
โ€ข Margin compression by megacap customers are a problem
  faced by many suppliers, especially in the tech space
โ€ข Unlike hardware manufacturing (chips, motherboards etc.), a
  real competitor in the advanced nature of Nuanceโ€™s
  technology does not exist
  โ€ข This will allow them to maintain healthy margins even as they acquire
    enormous customers
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS




โ€ข Support 50-dma                โ€ข Well above 200 dma
โ€ข Strong uptrend since August
RISKS

โ€ข Market downturn
  โ€ข Tech industry, but hedged with contracts
โ€ข Contractual Fee Based Agreement
  โ€ข Not sales based, double-edged sword
โ€ข New competition
  โ€ข Apple trying to make own technology, IBM entering market
โ€ข Lawsuits
  โ€ข Take time and resources, but Nuance effectively enforces
    patents regularly.
  โ€ข Buy opposing company.
Q&A SESSION

โ€ข Appendix
 โ€ข   Warburg Pincus Private Equity further information
 โ€ข   Further 2011 Merger Information
 โ€ข   All Acquisitions since 2004
 โ€ข   CEO Q1 Guidance Quote
WARBURG PINCUS INFORMATION

โ€ข Myriad of Private Funds equating to $30 Billion
โ€ข Strategy: Long-Term Growth Investing
  โ€ข In all stages โ€“ venture capital, middle road, late-stage
    buyout transactions, special situations
โ€ข Notable Investments: Amtek Auto,
Bausch + Lomb, Coyote Logisitics,
ITC Nexus, Laredo Petroleum, Targa
Resources, Transpacific.
FURTHER INFO 2011 ACQUISITIONS

โ€ข Vlingo (Dec 2011) โ€“ main competitor, years or litigation
  over voice technology.
โ€ข Swype (Oct 2011) โ€“ text โ€œkey-board swipingโ€ technology
  competing with their T9 autoinput $165 million
โ€ข Loquendo (Aug โ€™11) โ€“ TTS and ASR technology โ‚ฌ53
  million, breaking research done in Italian lab.
โ€ข WebMedx (July โ€™11) โ€“ medical transcription service (not
  disclosed)
โ€ข SVOX (June โ€™11) โ€“ automotive TTS recognition
โ€ข Equitrac (June โ€™11) โ€“ print/cost recovery software, law
  firm market leader $157 million
ALL ACQUISITIONS SINCE 2006
CEO GUIDANCE QUOTE

โ€œGlobal interest in our mobile and consumer technologies and
solutions has never been greater. Our Dragon consumer
revenue is benefiting from unprecedented response rates to our
advertising and from our past investments in global language
expansion. Revenues this year will include a materially greater
proportion of mobile services, new product introductions, and a
heightened interest in deeper strategic relationships. In
particular, we have seen a significant and accelerating shift
towards broader and more extensive engagements with
partners, which involve a combination of licensing, network-
based services and engineering and research services,
spanning several years. We note, though, that the accounting
for these arrangements tends to prolong revenue recognition. In
addition, our Mobile & Consumer business should benefit from
product releases later in the fiscal year.โ€

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Nuance Michigan Interactive Investments Club Pitch

  • 1. CHAMPION Jonathan Sheets Bobby Fitzpatrick David Tumm David Paolella
  • 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY โ€ข Recommendation - Nuance Technologies (NUAN) is a strong buy at a current range of $26-27.5 with a 6- 12 month target of $39 (+45.1%). โ€ข Recent drop in price ($36 to $26) provides favorable risk/reward opportunity โ€ข Catalysts: โ€ข Short term 1Q lower revision will not prevent full year guidance โ€ข Apple upcoming Ipad 3 release โ€ข Voice technology hardware and software
  • 3. NUANCE COMPANY โ€ข Nuance โ€ข Dedication to Communications is becoming a lifestyle the market leader is product maker that speech, imaging and transcends setting keypad solutions โ€ข Android Dragon โ€ข Licensing business โ€ข Appleโ€™s Siri โ€ข 4000 patents in โ€ข Dictation portfolio, none set to โ€ข Voice to text expire in the next 15 years โ€ข Multi-level command โ€ข 200 speech scientists โ€ข Concurrent processes
  • 4. CUSTOMERS DEPENDABILITY โ€ข Sexiest Customers: โ€ข Xerox โ€ข Amazon โ€ข Motorola โ€ข Apple โ€ข Rogers โ€ข Audi โ€ข Vodafone โ€ข BMW โ€ข Vonage โ€ข Ford โ€ข BestBuy โ€ข Garmin โ€ข Wal-Mart โ€ข HTC โ€ข Exxon โ€ข LG โ€ข IBM โ€ข Mercedes Benz โ€ข Bank of America โ€ข Nokia โ€ข Cigna โ€ข Samsung โ€ข The City of Zurich โ€ข T-Mobile โ€ข Mayo Clinic โ€ข Tom Tom โ€ข Cleveland Clinic โ€ข AT&T โ€ข FedEx โ€ข Citibank โ€ข United Airlines โ€ข Disney โ€ข Wells Fargo โ€ข Brother โ€ข US Army โ€ข HP โ€ข Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) โ€ข Canon โ€ข Dell
  • 5. AREAS OF BUSINESS Health Care Enterprise โ€ข 3rd largest business segment โ€ข Largest business segment โ€ข 75.8 million in sales (19.84%) โ€ข 145.3 million in sales (38.03%) โ€ข 81% of segment has fixed contracts โ€ข Non-cyclical nature provides through 2016, this secures revenue market downturn protection nicely โ€ข 23.3% earnings growth last quarter โ€ข 4.6% earnings growth last quarter Mobile & Consumer Imaging โ€ข Second largest business segment โ€ข Smallest business segment โ€ข 108.5 million in sales (28.4%) โ€ข 52.4 million in sales (13.71%) โ€ข 8 largest handset makers are all โ€ข Portable document formatting and customers applications to speed and reduce โ€ข 10 largest auto makers are all cost of creating, using and sharing customers documents โ€ข 23.7% earnings growth last quarter โ€ข 33.3% earnings growth last quarter
  • 6. EXECUTIVE PROFILE โ€ข Paul A. Ricci, CEO and Chairman of the Board; been with Nuance as CEO since 2000. โ€ข $62.33 Million โ€ข Thomas L. Beaudoin, Chief Financial Officer; been with Nuance since 2008, has 30+ year of experience. โ€ข $21 million stake โ€ข Steve Chambers, President Enterprise Division; been with Nuance since 2003, voted as one of the โ€œTop Influencers in the Speech Industryโ€ โ€ข $12.3 million
  • 7. INSIDER TRANSACTIONS โ€ข Net Insider Selling โ€“ bonuses, retiring, need cash โ€ข Recurring pattern of insiders (mostly directors) exercising stock options near year end as bonus, stock still goes up. โ€ข Chambers (-$700K) โ€ข Beaudoin (-$213K) โ€ข CEO ($62.33 Million), CFO, and CTO still heavily invested in Nuance
  • 8. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP โ€ข Increasing 628 to 732 in 9months. โ€ข GARP (Growth at A Reasonable Price) Funds recognize that NUAN still reasonably valued. โ€ข Aggressive Growth โ€ข Value Funds โ€ข Established LT PE firm invested in 2004 & 2009 โ€ข Two board seats โ€ข Current $1.7 Billion stake
  • 10. LAST QUARTER DROP Positive View โ€ข Buying opportunity โ€ข Long-term growth โ€ข Market demand โ€œnever been greaterโ€ โ€ข One-time, lower revenue because of prolonged Negative View timing deals and revenue โ€ข Excluding revenue growth from recognition. acquisitions mobile 16% from 27%. โ€ข Will continue to maintain โ€ข Therefore demand slowing for products. FY growth estimates โ€ข Product releases later in year
  • 11. DCF
  • 12. DCF
  • 13. COMPS *Does not have a comparable company in niche regarding size or business* Price Shares Mkt. Value Diluted EV Sales/Revenue EBIT EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA Outstanding International Business 09/2011 192.25 1,160.0 223,010.0 1,204.9 241,954.0 106,448.0 20,842.0 25,704.0 11.61x 9.41x Machines Corp. Microsoft Corp. 12/2011 30.05 8,390.8 252,142.7 8,465.0 211,653.7 72,052.0 27,409.0 30,222.0 7.72x 7.00x Nortel Networks Corp. 09/2011 0.02 498.2 9.6 535.0 -260.4 52.0 -225.0 -174.0 - - Image Recognition 06/2011 33.08 1.9 61.7 1.8 51.9 191.0 5.9 10.1 8.81x 5.16x Integrated Systems S.A. Omtool Ltd. 12/2008 3.70 4.7 17.5 - 15.9 15.2 -2.0 -1.3 - - Google Inc. Cl A 12/2011 605.56 258.0 196,889.8 397.0 156,467.8 37,876.0 11,713.0 13,564.0 13.36x 11.54x Adobe Systems Inc. 11/2011 32.46 493.8 16,028.8 503.9 14,631.5 4,216.3 1,197.1 1,467.3 12.22x 9.97x Transcend Services Inc. 09/2011 21.85 10.7 233.6 11.1 221.3 119.1 22.7 25.7 9.74x 8.59x Nuance Communications Inc. reports amortization of its intangible assets (patents and speech technology) that adjusts their earnings 88% lower. This gives NUAN a P/E of 179 when in reality it is trading at 19 times earnings. Also, as a growth stock with much smaller market cap it appears quite expensive in relation to the multiples of many of its competitors. Therefore, we found it best to use the DCF as the core reference for valuation. This list of comps is present to reflect upon the cheapness of the software space as a whole, including NUAN.
  • 14. GENERAL STATISTICS โ€ข P/E 19 โ€ข Current Ratio 1.8 โ€ข Earnings growth between 12-25% over the last 5 years, predominately in ascending fashion โ€ข Sales growth between 18-20% over the last 5 years, predominately in ascending fashion โ€ข 80% of the company is owned by funds and management (55% funds, 25% management) โ€ข RS: 91 โ€ข 34% debt โ€ข Beta: 1.37 โ€ข ROE: 18%
  • 15. MARGINS โ€ข Huge Gross Margins, Nice EBITDA โ€ข Net Margin only 3.5% because of huge R&D investment. โ€ข Margin compression by megacap customers are a problem faced by many suppliers, especially in the tech space โ€ข Unlike hardware manufacturing (chips, motherboards etc.), a real competitor in the advanced nature of Nuanceโ€™s technology does not exist โ€ข This will allow them to maintain healthy margins even as they acquire enormous customers
  • 16. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS โ€ข Support 50-dma โ€ข Well above 200 dma โ€ข Strong uptrend since August
  • 17. RISKS โ€ข Market downturn โ€ข Tech industry, but hedged with contracts โ€ข Contractual Fee Based Agreement โ€ข Not sales based, double-edged sword โ€ข New competition โ€ข Apple trying to make own technology, IBM entering market โ€ข Lawsuits โ€ข Take time and resources, but Nuance effectively enforces patents regularly. โ€ข Buy opposing company.
  • 18. Q&A SESSION โ€ข Appendix โ€ข Warburg Pincus Private Equity further information โ€ข Further 2011 Merger Information โ€ข All Acquisitions since 2004 โ€ข CEO Q1 Guidance Quote
  • 19. WARBURG PINCUS INFORMATION โ€ข Myriad of Private Funds equating to $30 Billion โ€ข Strategy: Long-Term Growth Investing โ€ข In all stages โ€“ venture capital, middle road, late-stage buyout transactions, special situations โ€ข Notable Investments: Amtek Auto, Bausch + Lomb, Coyote Logisitics, ITC Nexus, Laredo Petroleum, Targa Resources, Transpacific.
  • 20. FURTHER INFO 2011 ACQUISITIONS โ€ข Vlingo (Dec 2011) โ€“ main competitor, years or litigation over voice technology. โ€ข Swype (Oct 2011) โ€“ text โ€œkey-board swipingโ€ technology competing with their T9 autoinput $165 million โ€ข Loquendo (Aug โ€™11) โ€“ TTS and ASR technology โ‚ฌ53 million, breaking research done in Italian lab. โ€ข WebMedx (July โ€™11) โ€“ medical transcription service (not disclosed) โ€ข SVOX (June โ€™11) โ€“ automotive TTS recognition โ€ข Equitrac (June โ€™11) โ€“ print/cost recovery software, law firm market leader $157 million
  • 22. CEO GUIDANCE QUOTE โ€œGlobal interest in our mobile and consumer technologies and solutions has never been greater. Our Dragon consumer revenue is benefiting from unprecedented response rates to our advertising and from our past investments in global language expansion. Revenues this year will include a materially greater proportion of mobile services, new product introductions, and a heightened interest in deeper strategic relationships. In particular, we have seen a significant and accelerating shift towards broader and more extensive engagements with partners, which involve a combination of licensing, network- based services and engineering and research services, spanning several years. We note, though, that the accounting for these arrangements tends to prolong revenue recognition. In addition, our Mobile & Consumer business should benefit from product releases later in the fiscal year.โ€