2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
โข Recommendation - Nuance Technologies (NUAN) is
a strong buy at a current range of $26-27.5 with a 6-
12 month target of $39 (+45.1%).
โข Recent drop in price ($36 to $26) provides favorable
risk/reward opportunity
โข Catalysts:
โข Short term 1Q lower revision will not prevent full year
guidance
โข Apple upcoming Ipad 3 release
โข Voice technology hardware and software
3. NUANCE COMPANY
โข Nuance โข Dedication to
Communications is becoming a lifestyle
the market leader is product maker that
speech, imaging and transcends setting
keypad solutions โข Android Dragon
โข Licensing business โข Appleโs Siri
โข 4000 patents in โข Dictation
portfolio, none set to โข Voice to text
expire in the next 15
years โข Multi-level command
โข 200 speech scientists โข Concurrent processes
4. CUSTOMERS DEPENDABILITY
โข Sexiest Customers: โข Xerox
โข Amazon โข Motorola
โข Apple โข Rogers
โข Audi โข Vodafone
โข BMW โข Vonage
โข Ford โข BestBuy
โข Garmin โข Wal-Mart
โข HTC โข Exxon
โข LG โข IBM
โข Mercedes Benz โข Bank of America
โข Nokia โข Cigna
โข Samsung โข The City of Zurich
โข T-Mobile โข Mayo Clinic
โข Tom Tom โข Cleveland Clinic
โข AT&T โข FedEx
โข Citibank โข United Airlines
โข Disney โข Wells Fargo
โข Brother โข US Army
โข HP โข Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI)
โข Canon
โข Dell
5. AREAS OF BUSINESS
Health Care Enterprise
โข 3rd largest business segment
โข Largest business segment
โข 75.8 million in sales (19.84%)
โข 145.3 million in sales (38.03%)
โข 81% of segment has fixed contracts
โข Non-cyclical nature provides through 2016, this secures revenue
market downturn protection nicely
โข 23.3% earnings growth last quarter โข 4.6% earnings growth last quarter
Mobile & Consumer Imaging
โข Second largest business segment โข Smallest business segment
โข 108.5 million in sales (28.4%) โข 52.4 million in sales (13.71%)
โข 8 largest handset makers are all โข Portable document formatting and
customers applications to speed and reduce
โข 10 largest auto makers are all cost of creating, using and sharing
customers documents
โข 23.7% earnings growth last quarter โข 33.3% earnings growth last quarter
6. EXECUTIVE PROFILE
โข Paul A. Ricci, CEO and Chairman of the Board;
been with Nuance as CEO since 2000.
โข $62.33 Million
โข Thomas L. Beaudoin, Chief Financial Officer; been
with Nuance since 2008, has 30+ year of
experience.
โข $21 million stake
โข Steve Chambers, President Enterprise Division; been
with Nuance since 2003, voted as one of the โTop
Influencers in the Speech Industryโ
โข $12.3 million
7. INSIDER TRANSACTIONS
โข Net Insider Selling โ bonuses, retiring, need cash
โข Recurring pattern of insiders (mostly directors)
exercising stock options near year end as bonus,
stock still goes up.
โข Chambers (-$700K)
โข Beaudoin (-$213K)
โข CEO ($62.33 Million), CFO, and CTO still heavily
invested in Nuance
8. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
โข Increasing 628 to 732 in
9months.
โข GARP (Growth at A
Reasonable Price) Funds
recognize that NUAN still
reasonably valued.
โข Aggressive Growth
โข Value Funds
โข Established LT PE firm
invested in 2004 & 2009
โข Two board seats
โข Current $1.7 Billion stake
10. LAST QUARTER DROP
Positive View
โข Buying opportunity
โข Long-term growth
โข Market demand โnever
been greaterโ
โข One-time, lower revenue
because of prolonged
Negative View timing deals and revenue
โข Excluding revenue growth from recognition.
acquisitions mobile 16% from 27%. โข Will continue to maintain
โข Therefore demand slowing for
products.
FY growth estimates
โข Product releases later in
year
13. COMPS
*Does not have a comparable company in niche regarding size or business*
Price Shares
Mkt. Value Diluted EV Sales/Revenue EBIT EBITDA EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA
Outstanding
International Business
09/2011 192.25 1,160.0 223,010.0 1,204.9 241,954.0 106,448.0 20,842.0 25,704.0 11.61x 9.41x
Machines Corp.
Microsoft Corp. 12/2011 30.05 8,390.8 252,142.7 8,465.0 211,653.7 72,052.0 27,409.0 30,222.0 7.72x 7.00x
Nortel Networks Corp. 09/2011 0.02 498.2 9.6 535.0 -260.4 52.0 -225.0 -174.0 - -
Image Recognition
06/2011 33.08 1.9 61.7 1.8 51.9 191.0 5.9 10.1 8.81x 5.16x
Integrated Systems S.A.
Omtool Ltd. 12/2008 3.70 4.7 17.5 - 15.9 15.2 -2.0 -1.3 - -
Google Inc. Cl A 12/2011 605.56 258.0 196,889.8 397.0 156,467.8 37,876.0 11,713.0 13,564.0 13.36x 11.54x
Adobe Systems Inc. 11/2011 32.46 493.8 16,028.8 503.9 14,631.5 4,216.3 1,197.1 1,467.3 12.22x 9.97x
Transcend Services Inc. 09/2011 21.85 10.7 233.6 11.1 221.3 119.1 22.7 25.7 9.74x 8.59x
Nuance Communications Inc. reports amortization of its intangible assets (patents and speech technology) that adjusts their earnings 88% lower. This gives
NUAN a P/E of 179 when in reality it is trading at 19 times earnings. Also, as a growth stock with much smaller market cap it appears quite expensive in
relation to the multiples of many of its competitors. Therefore, we found it best to use the DCF as the core reference for valuation. This list of comps is present
to reflect upon the cheapness of the software space as a whole, including NUAN.
14. GENERAL STATISTICS
โข P/E 19
โข Current Ratio 1.8
โข Earnings growth between 12-25% over the last 5
years, predominately in ascending fashion
โข Sales growth between 18-20% over the last 5
years, predominately in ascending fashion
โข 80% of the company is owned by funds and
management (55% funds, 25% management)
โข RS: 91
โข 34% debt
โข Beta: 1.37
โข ROE: 18%
15. MARGINS
โข Huge Gross Margins, Nice EBITDA
โข Net Margin only 3.5% because of huge R&D investment.
โข Margin compression by megacap customers are a problem
faced by many suppliers, especially in the tech space
โข Unlike hardware manufacturing (chips, motherboards etc.), a
real competitor in the advanced nature of Nuanceโs
technology does not exist
โข This will allow them to maintain healthy margins even as they acquire
enormous customers
17. RISKS
โข Market downturn
โข Tech industry, but hedged with contracts
โข Contractual Fee Based Agreement
โข Not sales based, double-edged sword
โข New competition
โข Apple trying to make own technology, IBM entering market
โข Lawsuits
โข Take time and resources, but Nuance effectively enforces
patents regularly.
โข Buy opposing company.
18. Q&A SESSION
โข Appendix
โข Warburg Pincus Private Equity further information
โข Further 2011 Merger Information
โข All Acquisitions since 2004
โข CEO Q1 Guidance Quote
19. WARBURG PINCUS INFORMATION
โข Myriad of Private Funds equating to $30 Billion
โข Strategy: Long-Term Growth Investing
โข In all stages โ venture capital, middle road, late-stage
buyout transactions, special situations
โข Notable Investments: Amtek Auto,
Bausch + Lomb, Coyote Logisitics,
ITC Nexus, Laredo Petroleum, Targa
Resources, Transpacific.
20. FURTHER INFO 2011 ACQUISITIONS
โข Vlingo (Dec 2011) โ main competitor, years or litigation
over voice technology.
โข Swype (Oct 2011) โ text โkey-board swipingโ technology
competing with their T9 autoinput $165 million
โข Loquendo (Aug โ11) โ TTS and ASR technology โฌ53
million, breaking research done in Italian lab.
โข WebMedx (July โ11) โ medical transcription service (not
disclosed)
โข SVOX (June โ11) โ automotive TTS recognition
โข Equitrac (June โ11) โ print/cost recovery software, law
firm market leader $157 million
22. CEO GUIDANCE QUOTE
โGlobal interest in our mobile and consumer technologies and
solutions has never been greater. Our Dragon consumer
revenue is benefiting from unprecedented response rates to our
advertising and from our past investments in global language
expansion. Revenues this year will include a materially greater
proportion of mobile services, new product introductions, and a
heightened interest in deeper strategic relationships. In
particular, we have seen a significant and accelerating shift
towards broader and more extensive engagements with
partners, which involve a combination of licensing, network-
based services and engineering and research services,
spanning several years. We note, though, that the accounting
for these arrangements tends to prolong revenue recognition. In
addition, our Mobile & Consumer business should benefit from
product releases later in the fiscal year.โ