Job growth has returned to all regions in Oregon and in many, employment has surpassed pre-Great Recession levels. However that alone does not indicate the economy is fully healthy. For most regions, the population continued to grow even as the economy cratered. A new regional measure called the Jobs Gap compares the actual number of jobs with the amount needed to keep pace with the growing population.

1. 1
Oregon Jobs Gap by Region
Comparing Population and Employment
Growth Since 2007
April 2016
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

2. 2
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
What is the Jobs Gap?
• Statewide employment is now above pre-Great
Recession levels, however the population continued to
grow
• The job gap is the difference between current
employment and what is needed to keep pace with
population growth
• Gap based on a measure of potential labor force which
takes into account the changing demographics of the
population and growth
• E.g. An increase in 75 year olds does not increase the job gap
as nearly all are retired
• Combination of PSU Population Research Center historical
data (2000-2014) and Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
county population forecast growth rates by age

3. 3
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Oregon’s Regions
(Oregon Office of Economic Analysis’ Definitions)

4. 4
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

5. 5
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Jobs nearly
regained pre-
recession levels,
but falling
potential labor
force
• Prime working-
age population
(25-54 yrs old)
has declined
2,100 from 2008
to 2014
• Actual labor
force change
from 2009 to
2016 is approx.
-6,000

6. 6
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Portland’s job
growth has now
caught up to
population gains
• Clark County,
WA strong too
• Region
continues to
attract young
working-age
population
leading to
growing
potential labor
force

7. 7
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Job growth
booming today,
following
setback of
chemical depot
closing
• Looking
forward,
potential labor
force set to
accelerate due
to demographics
and population
growth

8. 8
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Columbia River
Gorge was state’s
best performing
regional
economy 2007-
2011
• Minimal job
losses and strong
growth since
• Population
growth
accelerating in
recent years and
expected to
continue

9. 9
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Bursting housing
bubble, older
demographics
and slower
population
growth resulted
in falling
potential labor
force, however
growth
returning now
and expected to
continue

10. 10
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Willamette
Valley
experiencing
strong job gains
in recent years
• As population
growth returns,
labor force
picking up
• Strongest gains
in Salem MSA
• Flatter trends
in Albany,
Corvallis and
Eugene MSAs

11. 11
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Region regained
approx. 1/3 of
lost jobs
• Closing the jobs
gap so far is
slightly more
than 50-50 due
to job growth
• Based on
population
forecast,
potential labor
force declines
are over

12. 12
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• The Phoenix Rises
from the Housing
Bust Ashes
• State’s largest
regional economic
recession since
Coos County in
early 1980s
• Job growth of 6-8%
annually is closing
the jobs gap quickly
• Population growth
returned in full
force
• Among 10 fastest
growing MSAs
nationwide in
recent years

13. 13
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• State’s largest
jobs gap today,
which is closing
slowly
• To date, the
improvement in
the jobs gap is
2/3rd due to job
growth (+900)
and 1/3rd due to
falling potential
labor force (-475)
• Population
forecasts call for
declining
potential labor
force through
2020, after which
growth returns

14. 14
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Contact
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052