The Case for Renewable Energy: Renewable Energy A Key to Nigeria's Power Problems. Prepared and Presented by Ofoegbu Donald Ikenna

1. The Case for Renewable Energy:
Renewable Energy A Key To
Nigeria’s Power Problems.
Donald Ikenna OFOEGBU
Program Coordinator (PFM), Economist/Researcher Centre for Social Justice, Abuja
Follow us on Twitter @censoj

2. outline
• Food for thought
• The world today
• Nigeria’s energy stance: facts and figures
• Investments and challenges in Nigeria’s power supply
• Outcomes so far.
• The choice of coal as a source of power generation:
what is wrong
• The renewable energy sources as a key to Nigeria’s
many problems. Benefits.
• Thank you.

3. Food for thought
WORKING
ECONOMY
WITH PEACE:
- more investment
- full employment
-increase output
WORKING SECTOR:
AGRICULTURE,
MANUFACTURING,
SERVICES
Energy =
Power
The start of
eradicating
an idle mind
and poverty
is first by
ensuring the
availability
of
sustainable
energy
supply.
An idle mind & Poverty are the products of the absence of power
Without sustainable power supply, we cannot end poverty and its cohorts.

4. The World Today
• Rising Economic inequality: few rich and more hunger poverty
• Rising global conflict; war and terrorism
• Drop in the international crude oil prices
• Climate change and its adverse effects; natural disasters, rising water levels,
floods, desertification, food shortage, rising and unpredictable temperatures and
weather.
• Massive energy shift from traditional fossil to clean renewable energy
Rising discuss to tackle the global
warming. Championed by USA,
Germany, Australia, Canada, Islands,
etc
Carbon tax and penalties. Signing
deals and green treaties to cut down
the use of fossil fuel. USA and China
are already in.
Commercial break through
renewable energy technologies.
innovative Solar street lights, solar
cars in Japan, China, Brazil, Germany,
etc. Electronic cars .i.e. Tersla motors
(Detroit, USA) with 40,000 electric cars
in 2014, to increase to millions every
year. Solar aircraft; the Solar Impluse
2; the first solar-powered plane to be
able to fly for several days and nights
without a drop of fuel.

5. NIGERIA’S ENERGY STANCE: FACTS AND FIGURES
• Rate of unemployment : 23.9% in 2011 ↑ 38% in 2013 and likely to
increase by 2% in 2014; with the chunk coming from the rural area.
{NBS Q4, 2013}
• In April 2014, MOF: No fewer than 5.3mn youths are jobless;
while 1.8mn graduates enter the labour market every year. This
figure is believed to be a conservative estimate of the actual number
of unemployed youths in the country, as earlier statistic released by
the NBS, the number of jobless Nigerian are about 20.3million.
• Nigeria, other SSA economies grow by 4.5%, Poverty remains
high {World Bank Report 2014}

6. NIGERIA’S ENERGY STANCE: FACTS AND FIGURES (cont)
7,500 MW
Current installed
Generation capacity
FGN intends to generate 10,000MW by 2016
and 12,500MW by 2017. {MOP, 15 Jan, 2015}
Hopes:
 Nigeria has the objective of being one of the
world’s top 20 economies by 2020 .
Federal Government has a target of 40,000MW
by the year 2020.

7. NIGERIA’S ENERGY STANCE: Bitter facts and Truth (cont)
• Currently the grid starts collapsing at 5,500MW, and grid
expansion is a costly and long-term project.
• Nigeria will need almost 200,000MW in 2030 (as calculated by
the Energy Commission of Nigeria).
How do we fix 20,000Mw in 2020 into the 5,500Mw
capacity Grid?
Where will this Electricity come from, besides the gas
thermals & hydro plants? Coal, Firewood, Generator,
abi na Kerosene?

8. INVESTMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA’S POWER SUPPLY
• Nigeria’s crude oil production dropped by 17,300 barrels per day from 1.919 million
barrel per day it recorded in November 2014 to 1.902 million barrels per day in the
December 2014.
• About 35million barrels of the country’s crude oil remained unsold at the international
market as at December 2014. Unfortunately, Asian countries, which Nigeria turned to when the United
States stopped buying Nigeria’s crude oil due to the shale boom, now prefer Angolan grades.
• FGN exported 140.79million barrels or 1.53mbd of crude oil during the third quarter of
2014, according to CBN in its latest economic report. This represents decline by 1.46mbd
or 131.4 million barrels. Refines 0.45mbd or 41.4million barrels for domestic
consumption.
• Nigeria is the 2nd Nation after Russia in Gas flaring.
Nigeria’s gas reserves are the 7th largest in the world and the largest in Africa with an
estimated 187 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. Unproven reserves might be as
much as 600 tcf.
40 per cent of Nigeria’s gas is ASSOCIATED GAS as it comes out of the ground together with
the oil. Nigeria has been burning much of this gas directly at the oil wells, thereby wasting
11%- 45% of all associated gas since oil exploration began in the 1950s. The amount of gas
flared would fetch roughly $2.5 billion each year.

9. INVESTMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA’S POWER SUPPLY (cont)
• The optimal harnessing of Nigeria’s electrical has been an acute challenge over the last
thirty years due to several challenges, which include pipeline vandalism, lack of funds,
insufficient meters, gas prices and increase in tariff.
• Funding: The power sector is a highly capital intensive industry. Nigerian banks provided
70% of the funds in loans and equity of the N404 billion paid for the power assets.
Estimated $4.28 billion required capital expenditure and rehabilitation expenditure:
Having acquired PHCN subsidiaries, the Bureau of Public Enterprises Director-General
declared that the Distribution Companies (Discos) would be required to spend a total of
$357.7million in 2013 alone. Of the $357.7million:
– Abuja Disco would be expected to invest $36.6 million;
– Benin, $24.3 million;
– Enugu, $27.2 million;
– Ibadan, $43.86 million;
– Jos, $22.75 million;
– Kaduna, $29.96 million;
– Kano, $30. 38 million.
– Eko Disco, $45.2 million;
– Ikeja, $58.74 million;
– Port Harcourt, $25.5 million; and
– Yola, $13 million.

10. FGN Allocation to MOP from 2009-2014 = N561, 966,033,615 (N561.97billion)
Capital infrastructural provisions, maintenance and replacement = 95.77% or (N538.18billion)
Recurrent non-debt expenses = 4.23% (≈N23.79billion) .
Of the Recurrent 51.47% was for personnel cost, and 34.25% for the overhead running cost.
The Tables shows the appropriation and utilization overtime for the ministry of power: (BIR, 2009-2014)
INVESTMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA’S POWER SUPPLY (cont)
Table 1: Budgetary Allocation to the Ministry of Power 2009 - 2014
year Total Allocation Recurrent Exp. Capital Exp. Personnel cost Overhead cost
2009 99,590,157,726 4,965,947,715 94,624,210,011 2,731,658,148 2,234,289,568
2010 152,159,093,860 4,476,519,477 147,682,574,383 2,101,832,918 2,374,686,559
2011 91,022,993,260 3,776,270,911 87,246,722,349 2,334,990,899 1,441,280,012
2012 78,416,140,484 2,951,452,110 75,464,688,374 1,986,133,906 965,318,204
2013 77,565,547,652 4,217,589,189 73,347,958,463 3,087,047,496 1,130,541,693
2014 63,212,100,633 3,397,810,244 59,814,290,389
Total 561,966,033,615 23,785,589,646 538,180,443,969 12,241,663,367 8,146,116,036
Table 2: Capital Budget Utilization for the Ministry of Power
Year
Appropriated
Capital Exp.
N
Released Sum
N
Cash Backed Sum
N
Utilized Sum
N
% of
Cash
backed
Utilized
% of
Appropriated
Sum Utilized
2009 94,624,210,011 39,599,212,715 39,599,212,715 10,143,106,694 25.6 10.7
2010 147,682,574,383 70,125,900,227 70,072,273,560 47,509,039,026 67.8 32.1
2011 87,246,722,349 61,147,181,783 61,147,181,783 58,530,660,168 95.7 67.1
2012 75,464,688,374 52,031,992,739 41,102,240,127 39,550,991,519 96.2 52.4
2013 73,347,958,463 49,213,422,043 49,213,422,043 39,554,121,008 80.4 53.9
AVERAGES 95,673,230,716 54,423,541,901 52,226,866,046 39,057,583,683 73.15 43.26
TOTAL 478,366,153,580 272,117,709,507 261,134,330,228 195,287,918,415 83% 50%

11. According to an investigation by SweetCrude in 2013, PHCN collects about:
N1.04trillion annually from households in Nigeria,
N2.074trillion annually from Micro Small &Medium Scale Enterprises (MSMEs),
N2.86billion from the 22 federal airports and
N3.4billion from banks and other large scale enterprises. (Vanguard 27th May 2013)
According to the investigation, the FG through the PHCN is fleecing Nigerians of about N3.41trillion
($19.6billion) annually through outrageous electricity bills, which is not commensurate with the amount of
power supplied to consumers.
-The metering gap in Nigeria’s electricity sector is put at about 2.8 million by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory
Commission (NERC). FG offers commitment to an initial N33 billion soft term credit line to support the metering
plans of the distribution companies in Nigeria’s electricity supply industry.-THISDAY Newspaper (15th August, 2014)
-The N3.41 trillion earned by PHCN annually is 114.47% higher than the N1.59trillion budgeted for capital
expenditure in 2013 and 40.9% higher than the N2.42tilllion budgeted for the recurrent expenditure.
-Households pay an average of N3,000 monthly as electricity bill, whether there is power or not for the month
-MSMEs pay an average of N10,000 monthly, Bank branches pay an average of N45,000 per month, while Big
business pay an average of N100,00 per month.
Despite the huge sums, generation generated by the PHCN annually, complains of inadequate funding and lack of
funds to ensure the execution of projects to enforce steady power supply still persist. This is an evidence of bad
governance in the system.
INVESTMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN NIGERIA’S POWER SUPPLY (cont)

12. Outcome so far:
• 2015 Budget: Power, Petroleum Ministries To Spend N214m On Generator Fuel, Maintenance
• Presidency, Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation and their parastatals to
fuel cars, generators with N815.4m.
• According to the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Nigerians spend about
N796.4billion on fuel to generate electric power every year.
• The Centre for Management Development reveal that an estimated 60 million Nigerians invest
about N1.6 trillion to purchase and maintain standby generators annually
• Not only do these generators cost a fortune for installation, fuelling and maintenance are very high
(adding to increased cost of production). The cost of generator proliferation has an exceptionally
high level of CO2 emissions and noise creation; Generator fumes comprise a lethal cocktail of
poisonous and environmentally unfriendly gases, including carbon monoxide and other noxious
products produced from incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels notably petrol (gasoline),
diesel or a mixture of petrol and engine oil. Exposures to such combustion engines (silent killers)
have been associated with a range of health effects, including lung cancer, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD), low birth weight, cataracts, pneumonia, and tuberculosis
• More people depending on firewood and kerosene stoves. The WHO estimates that breathing
kerosene fumes is the equivalent of smoking two packets of cigarettes a day and two-thirds of adult
females with lung cancer in developing nations are non-smokers, but cooking mothers – WHO (Fuel
For Life: Household Energy & Health).
• Indoor air pollution by Kerosene fumes kills 1.5m people per year.- D Light (2014)

13. The choice of coal as a source of power
generation: what is wrong?
In the quest for sustainable power
supply, the choice of energy
source must consider the
environment & human health.

14. The choice of coal as a source of power generation: what is wrong? (Cont)
Nigeria’s Coal reserve = 360metric tonnes
Predicted to generate up to 30% of the nation’s electricity need for 20-30 years,
@ What Cost?
August 2014, Dangote Cement plc announced planned to invest $250m (N40billion) investments in coal-fired plant imported from South
Africa for its plants in Obajana, Ibeshe and Gboko; to generate 30MW of electricity. Dangote cement plc was reported to have placed import
order of 30,000 tonnes of coal into Nigeria from South Africa.
World Energy
Resources; 2013
Survey: the
current share of
coal in global
power generation
is over 40%, but it
is expected to
decrease in the
coming years.
China alone uses as much
coal as the rest of the world;
and invariably embraces all
associated cost that
emanates from the use of
coal.
COST: Many have limited
the cost estimation for power
generation to the price of plant
setting, maintenance and
operation, too many remain
left out when the social and
opportunity cost are not
factored into the estimation.
Among the social cost is the
health impact of coal.

15. The choice of coal as a source of power generation: what is wrong? (Cont)
Today coal is the most dirty and
outdated energy source. Technology of
clean coal and carbon
trapping/storage is yet to prove
effective and has its own adverse risk
Source: Coal ‘s Assault on Human Health
Coal is the least efficient of
the fossil fuels when
comparing the amount of
energy gained against the
CO2 released (which is a
major Greenhouse Gas that
explains global warming;
coal is the main contributor
to climate disruption)
At every stage from mining,
transportation, storage,
combustion, and disposal of
post-combustion wastes,
coal development is a threat
to human and
environmental health.
The combustion of coal is
the largest contributor to
the human-made increase
of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Electric generation
using coal burning
produces
approximately
twice the
Greenhouse
Gasses per
kilowatt compared
to generation
using Natural Gas

16. The choice of coal as a source of power generation: what is wrong? (Cont)
Burning coal also
releases numerous
toxic chemicals and
particulates, which
can exact a cost on
a country's
population in terms
of reduced life
expectancy and
increased health
costs Coal-fired power plants that
sell electricity to the grid
produce more hazardous air
pollution in the U.S. than any
other industrial pollution
sources, and over 386,000
tons of air pollutants are
emitted from over 400 coal
plants in the U.S. per year
According to the
report, pollutants
from coal adversely
affect all major
organ systems in the
human body and
contribute to 4 - 5
leading causes of
death in the United
States.
Alaska, one of the
largest states in USA
with abundant coal,
does not rely on coal
as a primary fuel
source. Instead, they
increasingly looking
for cleaner sources
of energy to replace
fossil fuels; they are
facing increase
pressure to develop
coal only for foreign
export
Particle pollution from coal
power plants is estimated to
kill approximately 13,000
people a year.

17. The choice of coal as a source of power generation: what is wrong? (Cont)
According to records of the Union of Concerned Scientists, in an average year, a typical coal
plant (500 megawatts) generates the following amounts of air pollutants:
3.7 million tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2): an amount
equivalent to chopping down 161 million trees. CO2 pollution is the
principal human cause of global warming and climate change.
10,000 tons of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2), which causes acid
rain and forms small airborne particles that can cause lung damage,
heart disease, and other illnesses.
10,200 tons of Nitrogen Oxide (NOx), equivalent to half
a million late-model cars. NOx leads to formation of smog, which
inflames lung tissue and increases susceptibility to respiratory illness
500 tons of small airborne particles (particulate
matter), which can cause bronchitis, reductions in lung function,
increased hospital and emergency room admissions, and premature
death

18. The choice of coal as a source of power generation: what is wrong? (Cont)
220 tons of Hydrocarbons,which contribute to smog formation.
720 tons of Carbon Monoxide (CO), which causes headaches and
places additional stress on people with heart disease.
170 pounds of Mercury.1/70th of a teaspoon of mercury deposited in a
25-acre lake can make the fish unsafe to eat. Mercury also causes learning disabilities, brain
damage, and neurological disorders.
225 pounds of arsenic, which leads to cancer in 1 out of 100 people who
drink water containing 50 parts per billion.
114 pounds of lead, 4 pounds of cadmium, and other
toxic heavy metals. These toxic metals can accumulate in human and animal
tissue and cause serious health problems, including mental retardation, developmental
disorders, and damage to the nervous system.
Coal ash, the hazardous waste that remains after coal is burned, can also contain:
Chromium, which can cause stomach ulcers, anemia, and stomach and lung cancers;
selenium, which in excess can cause impaired vision or paralysis; and boron, which can
cause eye, nose, and throat irritation, or in large amounts damage to testes, intestines, liver,
kidney, and brain. All of these effects can eventually lead to death.

19. Nigeria should consider engaging in renewable energy sources. Nigerians
(Federal, States, and Local Governments; as well as citizens and estate developers) must be
open minded, innovative, emulate and import experiences of other clean renewable countries.
For instance:
-China in an effort to cut its use of coal has by far the world's biggest wind energy capability in
the world. (Global Wind Statistics 2013} China has a total capacity as at end 2013 of
91,424MW, USA 61,091MW, Germany 34,250, Spain 22,959MW, India 20,150MW, United
Kingdom 10,531MW, Italy 8,552MW, France 8,254MW, Canada 7,803MW, and Denmark
4,772MW.
-In Solar usage, estimated for 2013, Germany has the highest total photovoltaic peak power
capacity of 139,031MWp, China 18,100 MWp, Italy 17,928MWp, Japan 13,600MWp, USA
11,933MWp, Spain 5,340MWp, France 4,673MWp, UK 3,375MWp, Australia 3,121MWp and
India 2,180MWp.
-The IEA PVPS Report Snapshot of Global PV 1992 – 2013 shows that Germany has a total
installed capacity of 35.5GW of PV system, China 18.3GW, Italy 17.6GW, Japan 13.6GW, USA
12GW, Spain 5.6GW, France 4.6GW, Australia 3.3GW, Belgium 3GW and UK 2.9GW.
THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AS A KEY TO NIGERIA’S
MANY PROBLEMS
Nigeria has more Sun, Wind, Biomass, Water deposits for small hydro plants; all it takes to
engage renewable than these countries.

20. THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AS A KEY TO NIGERIA’S
MANY PROBLEMS
RENEWABLES HAVE
BECOME AFFORDABLE as
prices for solar equipments
have fallen by 80%. Small
hydro turbines come
cheaper than solar: UNIDO
has calculated that a
community of about 2,250
people needs to invest
N200m to get a 150kW
installation. After such a
one-off investment, the
turbine would run for the
next 50 years – and the
water is free of charge –
(UNIDO | United Nations
Industrial Development
Organization)
If Nigeria transits to off grid renewable we stand
to gain: a savings of $1.4bn a year, get rid of
basically 2.3bn liters of kerosene , 1.3bn candles,
314million batteries (not even accounting the
environmental effects and spills of the batteries
when disposed in waters given the leaks and
toxics. With a payback period of 14months, it will
take away 17million barrels of crude oil out of the
system save 6.4million tonnes of carbon dioxide
emitted, annually, which is equivalent of takin
away 1.6million car buses off the road. And the
annual savings per household is $66 a year.-
Nathanel. N (UNIDO, 2014)
RENEWABLES CREATE JOBS. more than fossil energies do. The oil
industry has created less than 50,000 jobs in Nigeria. In Germany,
400,000 jobs in the renewable energy sector compare with less than
200,000 jobs in the conventional energy sector. Nigeria can create many
more jobs than Germany, where solar radiation is as low as in Alaska.

21. THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AS A KEY TO NIGERIA’S
MANY PROBLEMS

22. THE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AS A KEY TO NIGERIA’S
MANY PROBLEMS
No Nation serious about bettering the lives of her
population depend on just thermal & hydro for power
generation alone.
To achieve sustainable power supply, a decentralized or
better still diversified power source is key.
Renewable energy & energy efficiency have been recognised
as d twin pillars of energy security
Nigeria's quest for self sufficiency in food production may be
marred by the negative effects of climate change on
agriculture. We must act against adverse climate change
not add to it.

23. Thank
you.