This project was completed for my QSO-360 class. This is a completely made up scenario where I implement changes at a local bakery to improve the availability of pie flavors for walk-in customers.

1. Increasing Availability at
Mom’s Bake Shop
Autumn Bilbao
Final Project
QSO 360
DMAIC Exercise

2. Tollgate Description
• The process of preparing and prebaking pies needs to be more efficient and
effective at Mom’s Bake Shop.
– The lack of pies available for purchase due to inefficiencies in preparation
causes complaints from customers
– This also causes a loss in profits because customers will leave if pies are
not immediately available or available within the next 15-20 minutes
• The DMAIC model should be used to improve this process
– Data can be used to show the gaps between current performance and goal
performance
• For example, all pie flavors should be available at least 85% of the time
that a customer asks for the pie flavor
– The risk of not having pies not readily available and having non-functional
equipment are high
• It is important to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of pie pre-preparation
– It will improve customer satisfaction
– It will increase revenue
– It will ensure the equipment remains functional
• If the issues remain unresolved, it could lead to the loss of customers and
revenue, as well as the inability to efficiently prepare pies to due a lack of
working equipment

3. Tollgate Description Cont.
• The goals of this project are as follows:
– Define the reason behind the inability to prepare enough pies for the
next day’s service
– Measure the process regarding the preparation of pies
– Analyze the root cause behind the inability to prepare enough pies for
the next day’s service
– Improve the efficiency behind pie preparation
– Control the process behind pie preparation to ensure enough pies are
prepared to meet customer demand each day
• The constraints on this project are as follows:
– The scope of this project only includes the pies bought by walk-in
customers
– Online and phone orders are outside of the scope
– Only the minimum number of resources can be used per day

4. Project Charter
Autumn Bilbao
DEFINE – Milestone One
Problem Statement Business Justification / Expected Benefits
The number of pies prepped at night for the next day’s
service at Mom’s Bake Shop has not met customer demand
since October 17, 2018. This issue has been identified based
on the loss of an average of 7 customers per day due to the
fact that the pies they want are not immediately available for
purchase and has been estimated to impact monthly profits
by $5,000. CUSTOMERS EXPECT ALL 10 FLAVORS TO BE
AVAILABLE UPON ENTRY INTO THE STORE.
Effectively estimating the next day’s sales each night
would make the pie preparation process more
efficient, which would increase the number of pie
flavors available upon walk-in and thus customer
satisfaction. This may increase the number of walk-
in customers, which would increase the business’s
monthly profit by at least $5,000.
Project Scope Out of Scope
Process Begins: Each night when the next day’s
sales are estimated
Process Ends: After store closes the next day
Orders purchased by walk-in customers are in
scope; all other orders bought ahead of time through
online or by call-in are out of scope.
Project Sponsor and Team High-Level Schedule
Sponsor: Mom’s Bake Shop Business Owner/Head
Baker
Project Manager: Autumn Bilbao
Define: COMPLETED
Measure: COMPLETED
Analyze: COMPLETED
Improve: COMPLETED
Control: 02/24/19

5. SIPOC
Autumn Bilbao
DEFINE – Milestone One
Suppliers Input Process Output Customer
Business
Owner/Head Baker
Ingredients/
Services/Time
Estimate next day’s
sales
List of ingredients for
preparation
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Time and service of
gathering ingredients
Gather ingredients Collection of
ingredients to put
together
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Time and service of
making pie crust and
filling
Make pie filling and
crust
Prepared pie Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Time and service of
prebaking prepared
pies for 45 minutes ea
Prebake Prepared
Pies
Prebaked Pie Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Head Baker/
Associate Bakers
Time and service of
putting pies in fridge
Chilling Prebaked
Pies
Refrigerated pie Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Associate Bakers Time and service of
rebaking one pie of
each flavor
Rebaking one pie of
each flavor
Rebaked Pies Customer
Customer Customer pays for pie Customer payment Business revenue Business
Head Baker/Associate
Bakers
Time and service of
prebaking another pie
of the same flavor(s)
of pie that was bought
by the customer
Pre-bake another pie
(occurs every time a
customer buys a pie
until store closes)
Pies Customer

6. Voice of the Customer
Autumn Bilbao
DEFINE – Milestone One
Customer Business
More pie flavors available upon walk in Ensure equipment will continue to be
functional
Use minimal number of resources
Part 1 – Generic Requirements
Customer and Business
Req
Measurements Goals
More flavors readily
available for purchase
# times flavor is unavailable <2 times per day per flavor
Ensure equipment will
continue to be functional
# failures/month <3 failures per month
Use minimal number of
resources
# staff working per day ≤5 per day
Part 2 – Translation to Measurements and Goals

7. Process Map – Multiple Pages
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two
FunctionAFunctionBFunctionCFunctionDFunctionEFunctionF
Estimate next
day’s sales
Gather
Ingredients
Make Pie
Crust and
Filling
Prebake
Prepared
Pies
Put Prebaked
Pies in Fridge
B
A
Head
Baker
Head/
Associate
Bakers
Associate
Bakers
Customers

8. Process Map – Multiple Pages
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two
FunctionAFunctionBFunctionCFunctionDFunctionEFunctionF
A
Rebake one pie of
each flavor that is
not on display
Put rebaked
pies on display
Customer buys
pie
End
of
Day?
B
A
Yes
No
Head
Baker
Head/
Associate
Bakers
Associate
Bakers
Customers

9. Value-Added Flow Analysis
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two
Definitions:
• Value-Added Step
• The customer must be willing to pay for this step.
• The “thing” is physically changed.
• The tasks are done right the first time.
• Non-Value-Added Step / Waste
• Any step that meets the definition of TIM WOOD in the announcements.
• Business Required
• Any non-value-added step that either the company or a government
regulation requires.

10. Value-Added Flow Analysis
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two
Step Value-Added Waste Required
Estimate Next Day’s
Sales
x
Gather Ingredients x
Make Pie Crust and
Filling
X
Prebake Prepared Pies X
Put Prebaked Pies in
Fridge
X
Rebake one pie of each
flavor that is not on
display
X
Put rebaked pie(s) on
display
X
Customer buys pie X

11. Data Collection Plan – Quantify the Problem
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two
Metric Output Process Sample Size Duration
Frequency at which
flavor(s) are unavailable/day
X 100% 30 days
# failures/month in
equipment
X 100% 90 days
# staff working/day X 100% 30 days
# pies that were not bought
each day (overproduction)
X 100% 30 days
% accuracy in next day’s
estimated sales (total and
per flavor)
X 75% 30 days
# times equipment checked
for mechanical issues
X 30% 30 days
# times failures in
equipment were avoided
due to checking equipment
X 100% 90 days
Frequency at which each
pie flavor is bought
X 75% 30 days each
season

12. • Summary of Data Collection:
– Frequency at which a flavor is unavailable per day
• Each flavor/day
• Pareto
– Frequency of failures/month in equipment
• Frequency of failures in each type of equipment (fridge, oven, mixer, heated display)
• Pareto
– # staff working/day
• frequency at which # (3,4,5 staff members) of staff works
• Histogram
– # pies that were not bought each day
• Total # pies that were not bought per day (created on weekly basis)
• Total # pies not bought per day in each flavor (created on daily basis)
• Bar chart
– % error in next day’s estimated sales
• (# of potential sales - # of times a pie is bought per day) / # potential sales x 100
• Eg. 37 (customers that walk in to buy pies) – 30 (pies actually bought) = 7 / 37(# potential sales) =
.189 x 100 = 18.9%
• Bar Chart showing % error per day (updated daily, reviewed weekly and at the end of the month)
– Frequency equipment checked for mechanical issues/month
• Total # of times equipment is checked for mechanical issues per month
• Histogram
– Frequency potential failures in equipment were avoided due to checking equipment
• Frequency of potential failures in equipment were avoided for each type of equipment (fridge, oven,
mixer, heated display)
• Pareto
– Frequency at which each pie flavor is bought
• Per flavor
• Pareto
Autumn Bilbao
MEASURE – Milestone Two

13. Autumn Bilbao
ANALYZE – Milestone Three
Cause – Effect Diagram

14. Autumn Bilbao
ANALYZE – Milestone Three
Potential Root Cause Identification
Potential Root Causes
Ineffective Sales Estimates
Equipment Failures
Number of Staff Working Per Day

15. Autumn Bilbao
IMPROVE – Milestone Four
Solution Selection
Proposed Solution Feasibility Effect Cost FxExC
Reduce occurrence of
equipment failures
3 2 2 12
Standardize process
for daily sales
estimates
4 4 4 64
Train all team
members on estimation
of daily sales
4 3 4 48
Standardize scheduling
of staff
5 2 4 40

16. Autumn Bilbao
IMPROVE – Milestone Four
Risk Assessment – FMEA
Process Step What Can Go
Wrong
Severity Occ Detect RPN Action
Gather the day’s
sales information
Information could be
inaccurate if online
and phone orders are
included
1 3 1 3 Keep copies of receipts
from walk-in orders
separate each day for
processing after the store
closes
Statistically
compare the day’s
sales to sales over
the past week
Using only the
previous week’s sales
may not be accurate
3 6 4 72 Trail-and-error, see which
time span results in a
higher accuracy
Use the average
number of pies
sold in each flavor
to estimate sales
for next day
Because the average
generally comes out
as decimals there
could be confusion
on whether to make
or not make one
more pie. Extra
unneeded pies may
be made, while some
pies that are needed
may not be made.
3 2 7 42 Standardize the choice of
making an extra pie
based on the numbers. If
the decimal after the
whole number is <.5,
then no extra pie should
be made. If the decimal
after the whole number
is ≥.5, then an extra pie
should be made

17. Autumn Bilbao
IMPROVE – Milestone Four
Implementation Plan
Task Resp Due Date
Gather a week’s worth of receipts/order
information from walk-in orders
Head baker 2/19/2019
Install Excel or other statistical software
(business owner’s choice)
Project
Manager
2/19/2019
Input all sales information for the past week into
excel or other statistical software
Head baker 2/21/2019
Use statistical software to show the last week’s
average sales in each pie flavor
Head baker 2/21/2019
Use calculated averages for each flavor to
estimate the next day’s sales
Head baker 2/21/2019

18. Autumn Bilbao
CONTROL
Monitoring Plan
What is Monitored Resp Target Frequency Escalation
% error in next day’s
estimated sales
Project
Manager
<10% Daily Head Baker
# failures/month in
equipment
Project
Manager
≤3 Monthly Head Baker
# days with under- or
over- staffing
Head Baker 0 Daily Head Baker
Six Sigma Belt Process Owner
Champion Finance
Project Sign-Off

19. Appendix
QSO 360
DMAIC Exercise

20. Analysis Roadmap
Student Name
MEASURE – Milestone Two
This is for reference only; students will not be required to do this in QSO 360.

21. Student Name
ANALYZE – Milestone Three
Potential Root Cause Validation With Hypothesis Testing
This is for reference only; students will not be required to do this in QSO 360.

22. Student Name
ANALYZE – Milestone Three
Potential Root Cause Validation With Hypothesis Testing
This is for reference only; students will not be required to do this in QSO 360.