Analysis of public opinion on foreign policy, based on a comparison of sociological data (mass / quantitative surveys)

1. ““West vs. NorthWest vs. North”” oror ““West & NorthWest & North
A Geopolitical TrilemmaA Geopolitical Trilemma
for Armeniafor Armenia’’s society?s society?
PhD in Political Science, Associate ProfessorPhD in Political Science, Associate Professor
Narek S. GalstyanNarek S. Galstyan

2. Sources/Abbreviations
• World Value Survey (WVS) - 2011,
• Caucasus Barometer (CB) - 2009-2013,
• EU Neighbourhood Barometer (EU NB) - 2014,
• EDB Integration Barometer (IB) - 2014,
• (Yerevan) Barometer (YB) - 2014-2015
• “Integration and Development” NGO (ID) - 2013

3. Indexes of “Geopolitical
Attraction”

4. EDBEDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

5. EDBEDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

6. EDBEDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

7. EDBEDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

8. CB -2013, ID NGO – 2013,CB -2013, ID NGO – 2013, EDBEDB IB –IB –
2012014, YB - 20144, YB - 2014

9. ID NGO - 2013

10. Awareness & TrustAwareness & Trust

11. CB - 2009 & ID NGO (2013)

12. CB - 2009

13. WVS - 2011

14. CB 2013 & EU NB 2014

15. Support of membership

16. CB – 2013, ID 2013

17. CB - 2009

18. EDBEDB IB - 2014IB - 2014

19. YB 2014

20. Conclusions

21. 1. Armenia has an average cumulative geopolitical orientation to the post-
Soviet space. But this space is more attractive than European and other
countries.
2. The political cluster is a dominant factor of orientation. The overall
economic orientation directs also to the post-Soviet space. But in this
case, the Post-Soviet and European indexes are not so different. Cultural
orientation indexes are also close, and in this case, the European
orientation dominates. However, Armenia and Ukraine are the most
cultural self-sufficient countries.
3. Russia is the only "center of gravity" for Armenia in the post-Soviet
space. Russia is the only "friendly country" for the vast majority of
respondents. European countries, mainly France, are on the 2nd
place,
and Georgia is the 3rd
.

22. 4. Russia is the preferred partner against external enemies and in the
Karabakh conflict, and the EU - in the field of science and protection of
human rights. In addition, European tourists, students and migrant
workers are the most preferred compared to other spaces.
5. The vast majority has a lack of awareness on the EU and the CIS/EAEU.
The absolute majority even thinks that Armenia is a member of the EU. If
in 2011 both spaces had mainly positive image and confidence, in 2014
the trust towards the EU fell down.
6. The vast majority supports Armenia's membership in the EAEU and a
relative majority supports country's membership in the EU. In case of
dilemma - the EU or the CIS, the majority choses the CIS. In general,
Armenia has an average support for membership in the EAEU.