Dr.C.Muthuraja's Presentation on ' Impact of Russia Ukraine War on Indian Economy' at Prof. Michael Samy Endowment Guest Lecture organized by Department of Economics (Centre for Research), Arul Anandar College, Karumathur, Tamil Nadu on 18.03.2022

1. The Impact of Russia – Ukraine War on
Indian Economy
Dr.C.Muthuraja, M.A., M.Phil., PhD
Head, Post Graduate and Research Department of Economics
The American College, Madurai - 625 002, TAMIL NADU
(cmuthuraja@gmail.com) - (M-09486373765)
(Presented at Prof. Michael Samy Endowment Guest Lecture organized by Department of Economics (Centre for Research),
Arul Anandar College, Karumathur, Tamil Nadu on 18.03.2022)
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2. OUTLINE...
Introduction
War and Economy
Russia – Ukraine War
Impact of Russia – Ukraine War
Features and Status of Indian Economy
Impact of Russia – Ukraine War on
Indian Economy
Lessons to be Learned...Peace
Economics
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3. INTRODUCTION
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4. WAR AND ECONOMY
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5. ECONOMIC IMPACT OF WAR
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6. RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR
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7. IMPACT OF RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR
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8. IMPACT OF RUSSIA - UKRAINE WAR
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9. FEATURES OF INDIAN ECONOMY
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10. STATUS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
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11. STATUS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
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12. IMPACT OF RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR ON INDIAN
ECONOMY
 Impact on Indian economy's growth in the long run
 Higher Cost-Push Inflation weighing in on all economic
agents-households, businesses, and government
 The risks of a higher import bill and, in turn, a widening
of India’s current account deficit (CAD)
 India imports more than 85 per cent of crude oil and will
have an impact on the country's import bill
 Russia and Ukraine export 30 per cent of wheat which
has been stopped
 On the impact on inflation due to higher imported prices
and weaker rupee
 Causing supply problems and trade problems
 Higher subsidy on fertilizers and possible reduction in
tax to save customers will also hit the physical finance
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13. IMPACTS…
 India’s Defence Supplies
 India accounted for nearly 25% of Russia’s total arms exports
 Share of defence expenditure in India’s budget is not little
 India allocated $70.2 billion on military spending (Budget 2022-
23)
 Indian military cannot operate effectively and rely on Russian
weapons systems in the middle term
 Agriculture
 Russia and Ukraine are the major global suppliers of wheat,
corn and sunflower oil
 India imports most of its sunflower oil from Ukraine
 Considering the demand of oil in India, the price rise of
sunflower oil will further increase inflation in India
 A sustained rise in oil and food prices would have adverse
impacts on Asia’s economies
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14. IMPACTS…
 Edible Oil
 Indians fearing that war may cause a shortage in supply
 India imports nearly 2.5 million tonnes of sunflower oil (70 %
from Ukraine- 20 % from Russia)
 May benefit mustard farmers in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh
 Fuel Prices
 World Bank Observation : “economic catastrophe” that will
surely cut global economic growth - The economic impact of
the war will result in the rise in prices of oil and gas
 Indian consumers may start suffering increasing fuel prices
 Exports
 If the fuel price remains at high levels for a long time, prices of
other commodities which India imports will also rise
 Due to this pressure on global economy, demand may be
impacted which could affect our exports too
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15. IMPACTS...
 Crude Oil
 Oil forms a major component of our import basket
 The sanctions can sour the price to a new level, resulting into higher
prices of petroleum products domestically
 Due to rise in fuel price our import bill will sour and so will our
Current Account Deficit
 Pharmaceutical Industry
 The prices of raw materials derived from benzene or other petroleum
products would rise due to the conflict, leading pharmacy exporters to
look for buyers elsewhere
 Little or no impact on sales
 Steel
 Ongoing war is likely to keep steel prices at cheerful levels in the near
term, which will benefit Indian steel players
 Export opportunities will allow leading steel companies to operate at
higher capacity utilization rates
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16. IMPACT OF RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR ON
INDIAN ECONOMY
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17. STATUS OF INDIAN ECONOMY
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18. SINCE 1881

19. Peace Economics – Pillars
Well-functioning Government
Sound Business Environment
Equitable Distribution of Resources
Acceptance of the Rights of others
Good Relations with Neighbours
Free flow of Information
High level of Human Capital
Low levels of Corruption
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20. LESSONS TO BE LEARNED...
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21. IMPACT OF WAR
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22. EDUCATING CHILDREN...
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23. Towards War free and Peace India
Role of
 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS - POLICIES
 UNION/STATE/LOCAL GOVENMENTS
 CORPORATE INDIA
 NON-GOVERNMENT ORGANISATIONS
 VOLUNTARISM THROUGH KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS AND
TECHNOLOGY
 YOUTH IDEAS & POWER (DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND)
APPEAL
TOWARDS PEACE INDIA EDUCATION
PLEASE
EACH ONE TEACH ONE
IF NOT
EACH ONE REACH ONE AND TEACH ONE
(QUESTIONS PLEASE)
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