Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Employment ppt may 2012 for april2010
1. April 2012
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A Graphical look at the
US Employment Report
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1/1/1994
2/1/1995
3/1/1996
4/1/1997
5/1/1998
6/1/1999
US Unemployment Rate
7/1/2000
8/1/2001
9/1/2002
10/1/2003
11/1/2004
12/1/2005
1/1/2007
2/1/2008
3/1/2009
4/1/2010
5/1/2011
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3. • NFP job gains in this recovery are less historically.
• NFP job losses were much higher in the most recent job depression
than previous downturns.
• Unemployment Rate has been above 8% for 40 months (longest
continuous time period above the rate).
Historical US Unemployment Rate/Change in Non Farm Payroll
11 1500
10
1000
9
8
500
7
0
6
5
-500
4
3 -1000
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4. US NFP Jobs Change MoM (Thousands)/ 3 Month Average
600.0
400.0 The 3 month average
200.0 of NFP jobs has fallen
from 252K to 176K. A
0.0
3 month average of
-200.0 300K is what the Fed
-400.0 historically wants to
see before they start
-600.0
to tighten.
-800.0
-1000.0
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jul-09
Sep-09
Jul-10
Mar-08
Sep-10
Jul-11
Jan-08
Mar-09
Sep-11
May-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-10
May-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-11
May-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-12
May-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
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5. US Private Sector Job Change MoM (Thousands) / 3 Month Average
300.0
100.0
The 3 month average
of Private Sector Jobs
-100.0
has fallen from 255K
-300.0 to 183K. Both the NFP
and Private Sector
-500.0 jobs are going in the
wrong direction.
-700.0
-900.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
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6. Jobs by Industry Sector (March (Blue)/April (Red)
70 62
60 52
50
Professional and Business
45
41
37
40
30 22 23 Services rose by 62K. The
20 16 14 12 rest of the sectors showed
10
0
0 0 1 2
lethargic growth.
-10 -3 -2 -2 -2
-6
-20 -12
-16 -15
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7. Jobs Lost by Industry Jan 2008 through Feb 2010 (26 months, -8.437 millon jobs)
1400
834
900
400 96
-100
-8.437 million jobs were lost -600
-52
-282 -205
-589 -553
from 2008 to -1100
-1600
2010…Manufacturing led the -2100 -1920
-1490
decline with 2.196 million jobs -2600 -2196 -2081
lost.
Jobs by Industry since March 2010 (Total Jobs added 3.745 million)
1900
1400
1318 Only 3.745 million have been
900 715
856
688
gained since Feb 2010.
400
485
Manufacturing jobs gained
162
29 59 41
back? Only 485K.
-100
-106 Construction has only added
-600 -502
29K.
There is still a ways to go.
8. US Unemployment Rate / Underemployment rate
18
16
14 Underemployment is down
12
to 14.5% from a high of
10
17.2% (or 15.69%), while,
the Unemployment Rate is
8
down from a peak of 10.0%
6
to 8.1% (or 19.0%)
4
2
11/1/1994
11/1/1999
11/1/2004
11/1/2009
1/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
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9. US Unemployment Rate College Degree / Less than a College Degree
18
16
14 Workers without a college
12 degree are starting to find
10 work. However, workers
8 with a college degree have a
6
distinct advantage over
4
those without a degree.
2
0
11/1/1992
11/1/1997
11/1/2002
11/1/2007
1/1/1992
9/1/1993
7/1/1994
5/1/1995
3/1/1996
1/1/1997
9/1/1998
7/1/1999
5/1/2000
3/1/2001
1/1/2002
9/1/2003
7/1/2004
5/1/2005
3/1/2006
1/1/2007
9/1/2008
7/1/2009
5/1/2010
3/1/2011
1/1/2012
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10. US Manufacturing Job Change MoM (Thousands)
100.0
Goods Producing Jobs have only added 676K jobs 50.0
0.0
since March 2010. This is only a 16.2% of the -50.0
- 4,168K jobs that were lost from Jan 2008 to -100.0
-150.0
February 2010 -200.0
-250.0
-300.0
-350.0
US Good Producing Job Change MoM (Thousands)
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
600.0
400.0 US Construction Job Change MoM (Thousands)
50.0
200.0 0.0
-50.0
0.0
-100.0
-150.0
-200.0
-200.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
-400.0
-600.0 US Mining Job Change MoM (Thousands)
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
11. Trade, Transportation Utility Change MoM (Thousands)
150.0
Service Producing Jobs have added 3,069K jobs 100.0
since March 2010. This represents 71.8% of the 50.0
0.0
- 4,270K jobs that were lost from Jan 2008 to -50.0
-100.0
February 2010 -150.0
-200.0
-250.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
US Service Producing MoM (Thousands)
600.0
US Information Job Change MoM (Thousands)
400.0 40.0
20.0
200.0
0.0
0.0 -20.0
-200.0 -40.0
-60.0
-400.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
-600.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
US Financial Job Change MoM (Thousands)
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
-60.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
12. US Professional and Business Job Change MoM US Government Job Change MoM (Thousands)
150.0 500.0
100.0 400.0
50.0 300.0
200.0
0.0
100.0
-50.0
0.0
-100.0 -100.0
-150.0 -200.0
-200.0 -300.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
US Educ Health Services Job Change MoM (Thousands)
US Other Job Change MoM (Thousands)
80.0
30.0
70.0
60.0 20.0
50.0 10.0
40.0 0.0
30.0 -10.0
20.0 -20.0
10.0 -30.0
0.0 -40.0
-10.0
-50.0
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
US Leisure and Hospitality Job Chge MoM (Thousands)
80.0
60.0
40.0 Professional and Business Services have
20.0 added 1,318K while Government has shed
0.0
-20.0 -502K. Discretionary spending may be
-40.0
-60.0
slowing as Leisure and Hospitality jobs had
-80.0 the lowest month gain since August 2011
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Jan-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
13. Discouraged Workers (Thousands)
1400
1200
1000 The Number of Workers
800 Discouraged and not
searching for work, is down
600
from the peak (currently
400
968k) but still well above the
200 normal 400K.
0
10/1/2007
10/1/2008
10/1/2009
10/1/2010
10/1/2011
1/1/2007
4/1/2007
7/1/2007
1/1/2008
4/1/2008
7/1/2008
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
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