This document summarizes and discusses 5 common myths about Indian voters: 1) Good economic performance does not always translate to good politics, though voters are increasingly rewarding good economic governance. 2) Regionalism is on the rise but regional parties have not undermined national parties and regional leaders are transforming governance in some states. 3) Lack of information breeds corruption in politics, as criminal candidates have access to funds and are seen as credible, though some regional leaders are making progress against corruption. 4) Caste still influences votes but "rainbow coalitions" also form, and voters/politicians may overestimate the role of caste. 5) Dynastic political families remain common but some

1. Five Myths About the Indian Voter
Milan Vaishnav | March 10, 2014

2. Five myths?
1. Good economics ≠ good politics
2. Regionalism is surging
3. Lack of information breeds corruption
4. Vote your caste, not cast your vote
5. Voters are fed up with dynasties

3. 1. Good economics ≠ good politics

4. “It’s the economy, stupid!”

5. A cautionary tale?
“India has not reached a stage where the people would prefer a
CEO to a politician to run the government.”
-- K.C. Suri (2004)

6. Good economics ≠ good politics

7. Are things changing?
“Since independence, many Indian voters have
reflexively ejected politicians from office even
when they had compiled decent records in
power…Recently, though, Indian voters have
started to reward good performance, especially
in state-level politics.”
- Arvind Subramanian (2009)

8. From ‘Jungle Raj’ to ‘Vikaas Raj’

9. 2014 Election issues
Note: Lok Foundation survey (2013); n = 68,516
24.1
22.6
18.8
13.5
6.8
6.6
5.5
2.1
Economic growth
Corruption
Inflation
Changes in personal
family income
Law and order problems
Access to govt services
Strong leadership
Opportunity/respect for
caste/religion

10. Good economics ≠ good politics

11. Wait a minute….

12. 2. Regionalism is on the rise

13. Surge in political competition
Single-party majority Coalition govt

14. Rise of the regions: anarchy or
strengthened federalism?

15. Relative stability in vote share

16. 1. Do regional parties undermine national
parties?

17. 2. Who rules the regions?

18. 3. The poster child for “hope”?

19. The “Nitish” effect

20. The “Akhilesh” effect

21. 3. Who is transforming governance?

22. 3. Lack of information breeds corruption

23. An Indian political success story
Anant Singh, three-time member of the Bihar state assembly from Mokama
constituency and well-known strongman

24. Why are there criminals in politics?

25. Increasingly
costly elections
Finite party
coffers
Parties
motivated by
“rents”
Party elites
prioritize “self-
financing”
candidates
The costs of democracy

26. From wealth to power

27. Increasingly
costly
elections
Finite party
coffers
Parties
motivated by
“rents”
Party elites
prioritize “self-
financing”
candidates
Criminal
candidates
have access to
finance
Why do party supply criminal
candidates?

28. The merits of money & “muscle”

29. Criminality as credibility

30. Voter demand for criminal politicians

31. 4. Vote your caste, not caste your vote

32. Degree of co-ethnic voting
14.2%
39.2%
85.9%
60.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coethnic Group co-ethnic
Yes
No
Note: N = 2,045

33. “Rainbow coalitions” (Bihar 2010)
Social group % vote for NDA
Brahmin 64
Bhumihar 48
Rajput 68
Other Upper Caste 89
Yadav 18
Kurmi-Koeri 70
Other OBC 63
Chamars 41
Pasi 25
Other SC 52
Muslim 27
Others 47
Source: CSDS (2010)
Upper
Caste
OBC
SC
Minorities

34. Can voters ethnically identify
candidates?
Note: Identification is considered accurate if voters identify the correct jati of the candidate. N = 2,045
29.2%
70.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Misidentified Correctly Identified

35. Can politicians predict the vote?
35.5% 34.5%
64.5% 65.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Vote intention 2008 vote
Incorrect guess
Correct guess
Source: Mark Schneider (2014)

36. Can politicians learn how you voted?
76.9%
10.2%
4.6%
8.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
No/rarely Most of the time Always No opinion
Note: N = 2,045

37. 5. Voters are fed up with dynasties

38. Nehru-Gandhi Inc.

39. The DMK family tree

40. “Princelings” in parliament
100%
78%
43%
38%
33% 33%
27%
25%
20% 19%
16%
9%
0% 0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: Patrick French

41. Dynasticism among MPs
20%
80%
2004
Dynastic
ties
No
dynastic
ties
29%
71%
2009
Dynastic
ties
No
dynastic
ties
Source: Kanchan Chandra and Anjali Thomas Bohlken

42. Hereditary MPs (by age)
100%
65%
37%
21%
16%
11%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 >81
Source: Patrick French

43. Dynastic preference?
51.4
48.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No Yes
%prefertovotefordynasticcandidate
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 55,538

44. Why voters like dynasties
Reason Percent
Better at doing politics because it is their
occupation
44.6%
Likely to succeed because of greater
exposure to politics 41.4%
Makes it easier to deliver services 14.1%
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 26,992

45. And why they do not
Reason Percent
Prevent best candidates from standing for
election 38.6%
Not representative of the common man 36.2%
Leads to corruption 25.3%
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 28,546

46. Wrapping up
• We know surprisingly little about what makes
Indian voters tick
– Much of what we thought we knew turns out to
be wrong (or at least more complicated!)
• New effort: “Lok Surveys”
• Good news: more data brought to bear than
ever before for 2014 elections

47. Comments/questions?
mvaishnav@ceip.org
@MilanV