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What makes people socially excluded? Role of drivers, individual characteristics and local conditions.

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Mihail Peleah, Andrey Ivanov, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center

Presentation for HDCA 2013 Conference
10-12 September 2013, Managua, Nicaragua

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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What makes people socially excluded? Role of drivers, individual characteristics and local conditions.

  1. 1. What makes people socially excluded? Role of drivers, individual characteristics and local conditions. Mihail Peleah, Andrey Ivanov, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center Presentation for HDCA 2013 Conference 10-12 September 2013, Managua, Nicaragua
  2. 2. Drivers of social exclusion Specific local conditions Social exclusion status Individual characteristics interact with in context of …and result in Structures and institutions; values and behavior patterns; policies Drivers are external factors, influenced by legacies, that either speed up or slow down the process of individual vulnerabilities turning into social exclusion (social exclusion risk factors), like poor education, disability, minority status Predominant industry, single or multiple employment opportunities, local infrastructures, history of violent conflict or environmental disaster of the individual in three dimensions— exclusion from economic life, social services, and civic and social participation Social Exclusion Chain
  3. 3. HOW WE MEASURE SOCIAL EXCLUSION STATUS?
  4. 4. Social Exclusion Index • Objective and multidimensional measure of social exclusion • Measure status excluded or non-excluded, not ‘perception’ or ‘risk’ • Applicable for Europe and Central Asia region • Useful for policymaking
  5. 5. Data sources • Regional Survey for RHDR (2009) • Kazakhstan and Tajikistan • Moldova and Ukraine • Macedonia FYR and Serbia • + Armenia: Social Cohesion Study (2010) • Compatible with the Regional Survey • Includes sub-national level • Serbia • Secondary source contextualization • Roma and IDP
  6. 6. Construction of index • Based on Alkire-Foster (2009) • 3 areas of exclusion – Economic exclusion – Exclusion from – Exclusion from civic and political participation • 24 indicators, 8 per area • Exclusion is overlapping deprivations • Threshold is 9 out of 24
  7. 7. Social Exclusion Index H—Social Exclusion Headcount Sensitive to breadth, not depth of exclusion H=0.600 (3 out of 5) A—Average Share of Deprivations among Excluded Sensitive to depth of exclusion A=0.569 M0=H A—Social Exclusion Index▪ Sensitive both to breadth and depth of exclusion M0=0.600•0.569=0.341
  8. 8. Profiles of exclusison
  9. 9. DRIVERS OF EXCLUSION
  10. 10. Drivers of Exclusion • Structural or institutional drivers • Values and behavioural patterns • Policies
  11. 11. Corruption: Supply and Tolerance
  12. 12. Attitudes matter
  13. 13. PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS
  14. 14. Different combinations of individual risks and local context results in different levels of social exclusion Average Capital or economic center Small town Village Average risk of exclusion in the region hides significant territorial differences… Individual vulnerabilities (like disability) interact with local conditions and amplify exclusion Disabled doesn’t mean automatically excluded! Local conditions matter Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011
  15. 15. Cycles of exclusion
  16. 16. LOCAL CONDITIONS
  17. 17. Three steps • Regional study – In-study contextual data – Contextualization by experts • Armenia – Secondary sources at regional level • Serbia – Secondary sources at municipal level – Extended set of indicators – Some econometrics
  18. 18. Secondary Source Contextualization Survey Administrative datasets Statistical databases
  19. 19. Local economy matters
  20. 20. Serbia: Social Exclusion and Health
  21. 21. Serbia: Social Exclusion and Education
  22. 22. Serbia: Social Exclusion and Employment
  23. 23. Regression: Mixed picture Full set Booster Full set Booster ind OLS ind OLS best MLS best MLS lactrate Activity rate (%) +0.002 -0.046 lorgemp Employed in enterprise, institutions, cooperatives and other organizations (total, %) -0.046 +0.038 -0.028 lagric Agriculture, forestry and water works (%) +0.068 -0.394 lromashare Share of Roma in settlement +0.217 -0.486 lcurrevpc Current revenues (in RSD thousands) per capita -0.028 -0.110 -0.036 -0.066 ldistcap Distance from capital (by car) +0.004 +0.032 ldistuni Distance to nearest university -0.011 +0.095 -0.028 ldistrest Distance to nearest restaurant -0.000 +0.092 ldisthosp Distance to nearest hospital +0.032 +0.088 lbirth1000w Birth rate per 1000 women -0.050 -0.435 -0.052 ldeath1000 Number of deaths per year per 1000 +0.232 -0.804 lpupsch Number of pupils in primary schools per school -0.002 +0.002 lchisch Number of children in preschool institutions per institution -0.003 +0.006 +0.019 lchi1000 Number of children in preschool institutions per 1000 children 5-9 -0.005 -0.001 -0.005 ldoc1000 Number of doctors per capita per 1000 people -0.185 -2.175 lvoted Number of voters who casted their vote in last elections per 100 person adult population (share of those who casted) -0.001 +0.218 +0.488 nperhh Number of persons in household -0.165 +0.771 nkids14hh Number of children under 14 in household -0.189 +1.389 -0.311 +1.204 v15 Age of respondent +0.063 -0.005 p_isdsbld Main respondent has disability or long-term illenss +2.600 +3.220 +2.432 +2.519
  24. 24. COMBINING PIECES OF PUZZLE
  25. 25. Different combinations of individual risks, drivers and local context results in different levels of social exclusion If you are young person, with low education, living in village, with single company—you face high risk of exclusion …and secondary education doesn’t help much in these conditions… …while vibrant business environment makes a lot of difference …economic centers offer more opportunities (even with low education) …and much more if you are educated + + + + + +Source: RHDR “Beyond Transition: Toward Inclusive Societies”, 2011

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