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Michael Tang                                             Kenneth Ying
                                                                      MBA	
  Candidate	
  |	
  Class	
  of	
  2012	
           MBA	
  Candidate	
  |	
  Class	
  of	
  2012	
  
                                                                         Marshall	
  School	
  of	
  Business	
                   Marshall	
  School	
  of	
  Business	
  
                                                                     University	
  of	
  Southern	
  California	
             University	
  of	
  Southern	
  California	
  
                                                                                          Popovich	
  Hall	
  310	
                                Popovich	
  Hall	
  310	
  
                                                                         Los	
  Angeles,	
  CA	
  90089-­‐2632	
                  Los	
  Angeles,	
  CA	
  90089-­‐2632	
  
	
                                                                                                                   	
                                                       	
  

	
  




        IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  
       Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  
         Prepared	
  by	
  Michael	
  Tang	
  and	
  Kenneth	
  Ying	
  for	
  Professor	
  Omar	
  El	
  Sawy	
  (GSBA	
  556)	
  
                                                                                                                                              March	
  8,	
  2011	
  
	
                                       	
  




                                                                                                                 Image	
  source:	
  http://www.sxc.hu/photo/496914	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  1	
  
	
  
	
  
Table	
  of	
  Contents	
  
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................ 2
OVERVIEW OF IPTV WITHIN THE US MARKET ................................................ 3
IPTV	
  Reducing	
  Barriers	
  To	
  Entry	
  For	
  Video	
  Distribution	
  ..............................................................................	
  3
Online	
  Content	
  Aggregators	
  Emerging	
  As	
  Disruptor	
  ...................................................................................	
  4
THE IPTV ECOSYSTEM ............................................................................ 5
Relatively	
  Fragmented,	
  Leading	
  To	
  Multiple	
  Layers	
  Of	
  Intermediaries	
  .......................................................	
  5
  Figure	
  1	
  –	
  Map	
  of	
  IPTV	
  Ecosystem	
  ...........................................................................................................	
  5
  Publishers	
  Originate	
  Professionally	
  Sourced	
  Video	
  Content	
  .....................................................................	
  5
  Aggregators	
  Provide	
  Content	
  Owners	
  With	
  Secure	
  Distribution	
  And	
  Shared	
  Revenue	
  ............................	
  5
IPTV	
  Receiver	
  Platforms	
  Set	
  To	
  Emerge	
  Into	
  Mainstream	
  ...........................................................................	
  6
  IPTV	
  Receiver	
  Platforms	
  Moving	
  Into	
  Financial	
  Intermediation	
  ...............................................................	
  7
ECOSYSTEM HEALTH ASSESSMENT ............................................................. 8
High	
  Productivity,	
  Driven	
  By	
  Increasing	
  Consumer	
  Demand	
  and	
  Advertising	
  Revenue	
  ..............................	
  8
  Figure	
  2	
  –	
  North	
  America	
  Market	
  Size	
  for	
  Online	
  Video	
  Advertising	
  (ex	
  Mobile;	
  2004-­‐2013p)	
   ...............	
  9
Robustness	
  Highly	
  Dependent	
  Upon	
  Cooperation	
  From	
  Content	
  Owners	
  ..................................................	
  9
Niches	
  Emerging	
  In	
  Amateur	
  Content,	
  Gaming	
  .........................................................................................	
  10
Overall,	
  Ecosystem	
  Healthy	
  With	
  Strong	
  Growth	
  Prospects	
  .....................................................................	
  11
GAME CHANGERS ................................................................................. 12
AllVid	
  Could	
  Dramatically	
  Increase	
  Consumer	
  Access	
  To	
  IPTV	
  Content	
  ....................................................	
  12
Rollout	
  Of	
  4G	
  Networks	
  Enables	
  Wireless	
  IPTV	
  Content	
  Delivery	
  .............................................................	
  12
Dynamic	
  Ad	
  Placement	
  Brings	
  Targeted	
  Advertising	
  To	
  Television	
  ...........................................................	
  13
APPENDIX .......................................................................................... 14
Exhibit	
  1	
  –	
  Map	
  of	
  IPTV	
  Ecosystem	
  (Landscape	
  Orientation)	
  ....................................................................	
  14
	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  2	
  
	
  
	
  

EXECUTIVE	
  SUMMARY	
  
The	
  Internet	
  Protocol	
  Television	
  (IPTV)	
  ecosystem	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States	
  is	
  poised	
  to	
  move	
  into	
  the	
  
mainstream,	
  driven	
  by	
  growing	
  consumer	
  demand	
  and	
  advertising	
  revenues.	
  High	
  productivity,	
  with	
  
niches	
  emerging	
  in	
  amateur	
  content	
  and	
  online	
  gaming,	
  points	
  to	
  a	
  cautiously	
  healthy	
  ecosystem,	
  that	
  if	
  
allowed	
  to	
  develop	
  fairly	
  and	
  unrestrictedly,	
  may	
  radically	
  alter	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  consumer	
  television.	
  

Market	
  research	
  firm	
  Strategy	
  Analytics	
  predicts	
  revenue	
  from	
  the	
  US	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem	
  will	
  reach	
  $15	
  
billion	
  by	
  2013,	
  while	
  PricewaterhouseCoopers	
  (PwC),	
  a	
  consultancy,	
  estimates	
  that	
  17	
  million	
  
households	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  will	
  subscribe	
  to	
  IPTV	
  services	
  by	
  2013.	
  This	
  increase	
  represents	
  a	
  50%	
  compound	
  
annual	
  growth	
  rate	
  over	
  the	
  period	
  from	
  2009	
  to	
  2013.1,2	
  The	
  majority	
  of	
  players	
  in	
  the	
  ecosystem—
from	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platform	
  manufacturers	
  to	
  content	
  owners	
  and	
  aggregators—exceeded	
  sales	
  and	
  
revenue	
  targets	
  in	
  2010.	
  PwC	
  also	
  predicts	
  that	
  advertising	
  spend	
  for	
  online	
  video	
  will	
  reach	
  $3.5	
  billion	
  
in	
  2012,	
  an	
  8.4%	
  compound	
  growth	
  annual	
  rate.3	
  

The	
  health	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  faces	
  risks	
  from	
  content	
  owners	
  withdrawing	
  content	
  from	
  aggregators,	
  
restricting	
  consumer	
  access	
  to	
  direct	
  distribution	
  channels.	
  In	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  rich	
  premium	
  content	
  
available	
  through	
  aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  Hulu	
  and	
  Netflix,	
  the	
  consumer	
  value	
  proposition	
  would	
  be	
  
greatly	
  reduced,	
  significantly	
  hindering	
  the	
  further	
  development	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem.	
  

Several	
  game	
  changers	
  are	
  set	
  to	
  dramatically	
  alter	
  the	
  environment	
  of	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem:	
  

                          •                          AllVid	
  could	
  significantly	
  increase	
  consumer	
  access	
  to	
  IPTV	
  content:	
  The	
  Federal	
  
                                                     Communications	
  Commission	
  is	
  pushing	
  the	
  home	
  entertainment	
  industry	
  to	
  adopt	
  AllVid,	
  a	
  
                                                     proposed	
  technology	
  that	
  aims	
  to	
  provide	
  consumers	
  with	
  a	
  universal	
  interface	
  to	
  paid	
  video	
  
                                                     content.	
  In	
  theory,	
  this	
  technology	
  would	
  enable	
  IPTV	
  content	
  to	
  be	
  seamlessly	
  distributed	
  
                                                     throughout	
  a	
  home	
  without	
  the	
  aid	
  of	
  set-­‐top	
  boxes,	
  greatly	
  increasing	
  the	
  accessibility	
  of	
  IPTV	
  
                                                     services.	
  As	
  such,	
  IPTV	
  content	
  would	
  be	
  placed	
  on	
  a	
  level	
  playing	
  field	
  with	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  
                                                     content,	
  greatly	
  increasing	
  IPTV’s	
  share	
  of	
  subscriber	
  and	
  advertising	
  revenues.	
  Furthermore,	
  
                                                     AllVid	
  could	
  place	
  significant	
  pressure	
  upon	
  the	
  current	
  bundled	
  pricing	
  model	
  for	
  subscription	
  
                                                     television,	
  leading	
  a	
  shift	
  towards	
  a	
  la	
  carte	
  pricing.	
  

                          •                          Rollout	
  of	
  4G	
  networks	
  will	
  enable	
  wireless	
  IPTV	
  content	
  delivery:	
  Unlike	
  3G	
  networks,	
  4G	
  
                                                     networks	
  provide	
  sufficient	
  bandwidth	
  for	
  IPTV	
  transmission,	
  resulting	
  in	
  increased	
  penetration	
  
                                                     of	
  IPTV	
  services	
  to	
  mobile	
  devices	
  and	
  rural	
  markets.	
  Further	
  shifts	
  balance	
  of	
  power	
  from	
  cable	
  
                                                     and	
  satellite	
  operators	
  to	
  wireless	
  providers,	
  with	
  increases	
  in	
  market	
  share	
  due	
  to	
  lower	
  
                                                     deployment	
  costs.	
  

                          •                          Dynamic	
  ad	
  placements	
  will	
  bring	
  targeted	
  advertising	
  to	
  television:	
  Integrating	
  viewing	
  data	
  
                                                     with	
  online	
  behavior	
  and	
  transaction	
  history,	
  dynamic	
  ad	
  placement	
  allows	
  IPTV	
  providers	
  to	
  
                                                     build	
  far	
  more	
  robust	
  user	
  profiles,	
  providing	
  advertisers	
  with	
  a	
  significantly	
  greater	
  value	
  
                                                     proposition	
  than	
  that	
  offered	
  by	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  providers.	
  

	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
1
  	
  “Global	
  entertainment	
  and	
  media	
  outlook	
  2009	
  –2013”,	
  PwC,	
  Jun	
  2009,	
  p	
  182	
  
2
  	
  Viviek	
  Naik,	
  “U.S.	
  IPTV	
  to	
  hit	
  $15	
  Billion	
  in	
  Revenues	
  by	
  2013,	
  Study	
  Says”,	
  TMCNet,	
  Sep	
  2	
  2009,	
  
http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/63554-­‐us-­‐iptv-­‐hit-­‐15-­‐billion-­‐revenues-­‐2013-­‐study.htm,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  5	
  2011	
  
3
  	
  Ibid.	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  3	
  
	
  
	
  
OVERVIEW	
  OF	
  IPTV	
  WITHIN	
  THE	
  US	
  MARKET	
  

IPTV	
  Reducing	
  Barriers	
  To	
  Entry	
  For	
  Video	
  Distribution	
  
Internet	
  Protocol	
  Television	
  (IPTV)	
  is	
  a	
  system	
  for	
  delivering	
  video	
  that	
  leverages	
  the	
  networks	
  and	
  
protocols	
  of	
  the	
  internet,	
  replacing	
  traditional	
  broadcasting	
  technologies.	
  IPTV	
  is	
  a	
  rapidly	
  growing	
  
market.	
  According	
  to	
  Strategy	
  Analytics,	
  a	
  market	
  research	
  firm,	
  revenue	
  from	
  the	
  US	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem	
  
will	
  reach	
  ~$15	
  billion	
  by	
  2013.4	
  PricewaterhouseCoopers	
  (PwC),	
  a	
  consultancy,	
  estimates	
  that	
  17	
  million	
  
households	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  will	
  subscribe	
  to	
  IPTV	
  services	
  by	
  2013,	
  representing	
  ~50%	
  compound	
  annual	
  
growth	
  over	
  the	
  period	
  from	
  2009	
  to	
  2013.5	
  

Broadly	
  speaking,	
  IPTV	
  dramatically	
  reduces	
  the	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  for	
  video	
  distribution.	
  	
  

Broadcast	
  television,	
  the	
  first	
  technology	
  that	
  enabled	
  widespread	
  transmission	
  of	
  video,	
  requires	
  costly	
  
licenses	
  for	
  access	
  to	
  spectrum,	
  a	
  finite	
  resource,	
  limiting	
  video	
  distribution	
  to	
  well-­‐capitalized	
  entities.	
  

Cable	
  television,	
  the	
  next	
  evolution	
  in	
  video	
  distribution,	
  brought	
  significantly	
  greater	
  capacity,	
  enabling	
  
consumers	
  to	
  access	
  hundreds	
  of	
  channels	
  through	
  a	
  single	
  wire.	
  As	
  wiring	
  a	
  household	
  for	
  cable	
  
required	
  significant	
  investment,	
  cities	
  created	
  natural	
  monopolies	
  by	
  awarding	
  exclusive	
  franchises	
  to	
  
cable	
  companies,	
  giving	
  these	
  firms	
  significant	
  market	
  power.	
  	
  

Unlike	
  broadcast	
  and	
  cable,	
  IPTV	
  provides	
  a	
  relatively	
  open	
  platform	
  for	
  video	
  distribution.	
  Services	
  such	
  
as	
  YouTube	
  and	
  Vimeo	
  enable	
  content	
  creators	
  to	
  reach	
  a	
  global	
  audience	
  with	
  negligible	
  upfront	
  
investment.	
  There	
  are	
  two	
  key	
  properties	
  of	
  IPTV	
  that	
  enable	
  this	
  openness:	
  

                          •                          Packet-­‐switching:	
  With	
  broadcast	
  and	
  analog	
  cable,	
  all	
  channels	
  are	
  continuously	
  piped	
  through	
  
                                                     the	
  transmission	
  medium,	
  regardless	
  of	
  whether	
  any	
  receiver	
  is	
  using	
  that	
  signal.	
  IPTV	
  uses	
  the	
  
                                                     infrastructure	
  underlying	
  the	
  internet	
  for	
  video	
  transmission.	
  Instead	
  of	
  continuous	
  
                                                     transmission,	
  with	
  IPTV,	
  a	
  video	
  stream	
  is	
  broken	
  into	
  discrete	
  packets	
  that	
  are	
  reassembled	
  by	
  
                                                     the	
  receiver.	
  This	
  provides	
  a	
  fertile	
  platform	
  for	
  video-­‐on-­‐demand,	
  as	
  a	
  receiver’s	
  bandwidth	
  
                                                     remains	
  open	
  until	
  a	
  video	
  stream	
  is	
  requested.	
  

                          •                          Network	
  neutrality:	
  The	
  Federal	
  Communications	
  Commission	
  (FCC),	
  the	
  main	
  
                                                     telecommunications	
  regulatory	
  body	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States,	
  ruled	
  in	
  late	
  2010	
  that	
  internet	
  
                                                     service	
  providers	
  (ISPs)	
  can	
  not	
  discriminate	
  between	
  their	
  own	
  services	
  and	
  those	
  provided	
  by	
  
                                                     third-­‐parties.6	
  In	
  recent	
  years,	
  tensions	
  have	
  escalated	
  between	
  ISPs	
  and	
  online	
  video	
  
                                                     distributors,	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix,	
  over	
  high-­‐bandwidth	
  use.	
  Prior	
  to	
  the	
  FCC’s	
  ruling,	
  Comcast,	
  the	
  
                                                     largest	
  cable	
  company	
  in	
  the	
  United	
  States,	
  had	
  demanded	
  that	
  Netflix’s	
  content	
  delivery	
  
                                                     provider,	
  Level	
  3	
  Communications,	
  pay	
  Comcast	
  as	
  compensation	
  for	
  handling	
  Netflix’s	
  incoming	
  
                                                     traffic	
  to	
  Comcast	
  subscribers.7	
  By	
  upholding	
  network	
  neutrality,	
  the	
  FCC	
  maintains	
  the	
  status	
  
                                                     quo	
  whereby	
  consumers	
  can	
  access	
  any	
  video	
  distributor	
  through	
  the	
  connection	
  provided	
  by	
  
                                                     their	
  ISP.	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  significant	
  departure	
  from	
  the	
  business	
  models	
  of	
  cable	
  and	
  broadcast	
  


	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
4
  	
  Viviek	
  Naik,	
  “U.S.	
  IPTV	
  to	
  hit	
  $15	
  Billion	
  in	
  Revenues	
  by	
  2013,	
  Study	
  Says”,	
  TMCNet,	
  Sep	
  2	
  2009,	
  
http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/63554-­‐us-­‐iptv-­‐hit-­‐15-­‐billion-­‐revenues-­‐2013-­‐study.htm,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  5	
  2011	
  
5
  	
  “Global	
  entertainment	
  and	
  media	
  outlook	
  2009	
  –2013”,	
  PwC,	
  Jun	
  2009,	
  p	
  182	
  
6
  	
  Jeffry	
  Bartash,	
  “FCC	
  approves	
  new	
  rules	
  governing	
  Internet”,	
  Marketwatch,	
  Dec	
  21	
  2010,	
  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fcc-­‐backs-­‐new-­‐
rules-­‐governing-­‐internet-­‐2010-­‐12-­‐21,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
7
  	
  Jeffry	
  Bartash,	
  “Comcast	
  in	
  dispute	
  over	
  Netflix	
  downloads”,	
  Marketwatch,	
  Nov	
  30	
  2010,	
  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/comcast-­‐in-­‐
dispute-­‐over-­‐netflix-­‐downloads-­‐2010-­‐11-­‐30,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  4	
  
	
  
	
  
                                                     television,	
  as	
  these	
  structures	
  historically	
  provided	
  telecommunications	
  firms	
  with	
  near	
  total	
  
                                                     control	
  over	
  the	
  video	
  content	
  that	
  subscribers	
  could	
  receive	
  through	
  their	
  services.	
  

Online	
  Content	
  Aggregators	
  Emerging	
  As	
  Disruptor	
  
The	
  openness	
  enabled	
  by	
  IPTV	
  platforms	
  has	
  resulted	
  in	
  two	
  distinct	
  business	
  models	
  within	
  the	
  US	
  
market:	
  

                          •                          IPTV	
  as	
  a	
  product-­‐line	
  extension	
  for	
  telecommunications	
  firms:	
  Prior	
  to	
  IPTV,	
  
                                                     telecommunications	
  firms	
  lacked	
  the	
  capability	
  to	
  directly	
  offer	
  video	
  services	
  to	
  their	
  
                                                     subscribers.	
  In	
  contrast,	
  cable	
  companies’	
  infrastructure	
  provided	
  sufficient	
  bandwidth	
  to	
  offer	
  
                                                     voice,	
  data,	
  and	
  video	
  through	
  a	
  single	
  connection.	
  AT&T,	
  a	
  leading	
  US	
  provider	
  of	
  traditional	
  
                                                     phone	
  and	
  DSL	
  data	
  services,	
  launched	
  an	
  ambitious	
  network	
  upgrade	
  in	
  2006	
  to	
  increase	
  the	
  
                                                     capacity	
  of	
  its	
  infrastructure	
  to	
  support	
  an	
  IPTV	
  service	
  branded	
  as	
  “U-­‐verse”.8	
  Executives	
  at	
  
                                                     AT&T	
  have	
  stated	
  that	
  these	
  upgrades	
  require	
  a	
  “couple	
  billion”	
  in	
  capital	
  expenditures	
  each	
  
                                                     year.	
  9	
  Services	
  such	
  as	
  U-­‐verse	
  compete	
  directly	
  with	
  traditional	
  video	
  services	
  from	
  cable	
  and	
  
                                                     satellite	
  firms.	
  Ongoing	
  subscriptions	
  for	
  access	
  to	
  a	
  basket	
  of	
  channels	
  are	
  the	
  primary	
  source	
  
                                                     of	
  revenue.	
  

                          •                          Online	
  content	
  aggregators:	
  Services	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix,	
  Amazon	
  Instant	
  Video,	
  iTunes,	
  Hulu,	
  and	
  
                                                     YouTube	
  provide	
  consumers	
  with	
  a	
  library	
  of	
  video	
  content,	
  accessible	
  through	
  a	
  high-­‐speed	
  
                                                     internet	
  connection	
  across	
  multiple	
  platforms,	
  such	
  as	
  personal	
  computers,	
  mobile	
  devices,	
  and	
  
                                                     televisions.	
  This	
  category	
  can	
  be	
  further	
  segmented	
  into	
  aggregators	
  that	
  focus	
  on	
  professional	
  
                                                     content,	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix	
  and	
  Hulu,	
  and	
  those	
  that	
  focus	
  on	
  amateur	
  content,	
  such	
  as	
  YouTube	
  
                                                     and	
  Vimeo.	
  	
  

These	
  online	
  content	
  aggregators	
  are	
  disrupting	
  the	
  business	
  model	
  of	
  the	
  traditional	
  subscription	
  video	
  
services	
  offered	
  by	
  telecommunications,	
  cable,	
  and	
  satellite	
  companies,	
  unleashing	
  significant	
  
whitespace	
  for	
  opportunistic	
  firms	
  to	
  capitalize	
  on	
  opportunities	
  within	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem.	
  As	
  such,	
  the	
  
remainder	
  of	
  this	
  report	
  will	
  focus	
  on	
  IPTV	
  as	
  delivered	
  through	
  online	
  content	
  aggregators.	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
8
  	
  Peter	
  Grant,	
  “Business	
  Technology:	
  AT&T	
  Raises	
  TV	
  Stakes	
  With	
  Bigger	
  HD	
  Lineup;	
  Aiming	
  to	
  Trump	
  Cable,	
  Service	
  Adds	
  27	
  Channels;	
  Big	
  Test	
  
of	
  Internet	
  Tools”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Dec	
  19	
  2006,	
  via	
  ProQuest,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
9
  	
  Niraj	
  Sheth,	
  “AT&T	
  Rethinks	
  U-­‐Verse	
  Spending	
  After	
  FCC	
  Move”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Jun	
  15	
  2010,	
  via	
  ProQuest,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  5	
  
	
  
	
  
THE	
  IPTV	
  ECOSYSTEM	
  

Relatively	
  Fragmented,	
  Leading	
  To	
  Multiple	
  Layers	
  Of	
  Intermediaries	
  
	
  

Figure	
  1	
  –	
  Map	
  of	
  IPTV	
  Ecosystem	
  
IPTV%Ecosystem:%RelaAvely%Fragmented,%Leading%to%MulAple%Layers%of%Intermediaries%
   Legend%(note:%size%of%arrows%represents%magnitude%of%flows)%%                                                                                                                                 ILLUSTRATIVE%
        Financial+Flow+       Content+Flow+
                                                                                                                                            AdverAsing%Networks%
       B2B%TransacAons%




                                  Content%Owners%/%                                                      Content%Aggregators%                                                      Content+Delivery+
                                     Publishers%                                                                                                                                      Networks+




                                                                Financial%Intermediaries%
       C2B%TransacAons%




                                                                                                                                                            Internet+Service+
                                         IPTV%Receiver%Pla.orms%                                                                                               Providers+




                                 Electronics+Retailers+                                                                                              Consumers%


Sources:+Team+analysis;+logos+reproduced+under+Fair+Use+excepCon+(17+U.S.C.+§+107)+for+nonLprofit+educaConal+purposes;+icons+obtained+from+iconarchive.com;+tv+image+obtained+from+sxc.hu+(royaltyLfree)+

Note:	
  A	
  larger	
  version	
  of	
  this	
  map	
  has	
  been	
  reproduced	
  in	
  the	
  Appendix	
  as	
  “Exhibit	
  1	
  –	
  Map	
  of	
  IPTV	
  Ecosystem	
  (Landscape	
  
Orientation)”	
  
	
  

Publishers	
  Originate	
  Professionally	
  Sourced	
  Video	
  Content	
  
The	
  path	
  from	
  content	
  owners	
  and	
  publishers	
  to	
  the	
  end	
  consumer	
  crosses	
  multiple	
  boundaries	
  in	
  the	
  
IPTV	
  ecosystem.	
  Media	
  companies,	
  such	
  as	
  ABC,	
  FOX,	
  and	
  NBC,	
  originate	
  the	
  flow	
  of	
  professionally	
  
sourced	
  content.	
  Most	
  publishers	
  then	
  push	
  their	
  content	
  to	
  aggregators,	
  while	
  some	
  also	
  offer	
  
consumers	
  direct	
  access	
  through	
  their	
  website.	
  For	
  those	
  publishers	
  that	
  offer	
  direct	
  access,	
  viewing	
  is	
  
restricted	
  to	
  personal	
  computers.	
  

Aggregators	
  Provide	
  Content	
  Owners	
  With	
  Secure	
  Distribution	
  And	
  Shared	
  Revenue	
  	
  
In	
  contrast,	
  aggregators	
  provide	
  consumers	
  the	
  ability	
  to	
  view	
  content	
  across	
  a	
  wider	
  variety	
  of	
  
receivers,	
  such	
  as	
  smartphones,	
  dedicated	
  IPTV	
  set-­‐top	
  boxes,	
  and	
  newer	
  high-­‐end	
  televisions.	
  Content	
  
owners	
  are	
  the	
  main	
  driver	
  behind	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  aggregators.	
  For	
  example,	
  Hulu,	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  most	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  6	
  
	
  
	
  
successful	
  content	
  aggregators,	
  is	
  jointly	
  owned	
  by	
  Disney	
  (parent	
  of	
  ABC),	
  NBC,	
  and	
  FOX.10	
  Jeff	
  Zucker,	
  
CEO	
  of	
  NBC	
  Universal,	
  explained	
  in	
  an	
  interview	
  with	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  that	
  Hulu	
  came	
  about	
  as	
  a	
  
way	
  to	
  “train	
  people	
  to	
  legally	
  view	
  [content]	
  online”.11	
  As	
  broadband	
  providers	
  increased	
  the	
  speed	
  of	
  
their	
  offerings,	
  video	
  content	
  owners	
  feared	
  that	
  consumers	
  would	
  turn	
  towards	
  unauthorized	
  
distribution	
  channels,	
  a	
  trend	
  that	
  had	
  cannibalized	
  much	
  of	
  the	
  revenue	
  within	
  the	
  music	
  industry.	
  
Aggregators	
  offer	
  content	
  owners	
  with	
  a	
  secure	
  distribution	
  platform	
  and	
  established	
  business	
  model	
  
for	
  monetizing	
  content.	
  

Three	
  primary	
  business	
  models	
  have	
  emerged	
  from	
  online	
  aggregators:	
  pay-­‐per	
  download,	
  subscription,	
  
and	
  advertising	
  –	
  along	
  with	
  a	
  “freemium”	
  model	
  that	
  blends	
  elements	
  of	
  the	
  latter	
  two	
  business	
  
models.	
  

The	
  iTunes	
  Store	
  is	
  the	
  most	
  recognizable	
  operator	
  of	
  the	
  pay-­‐per	
  download	
  model.	
  Consumers	
  must	
  
pay	
  a	
  set	
  price	
  for	
  each	
  program	
  they	
  choose	
  to	
  view.	
  

Netflix	
  is	
  an	
  example	
  of	
  a	
  subscription-­‐based	
  model.	
  In	
  exchange	
  for	
  a	
  monthly	
  fee,	
  consumers	
  are	
  
provided	
  unlimited	
  access	
  to	
  a	
  library	
  of	
  content.	
  

YouTube	
  uses	
  an	
  advertising	
  supported	
  model,	
  leveraging	
  Google’s	
  strength	
  in	
  text	
  ads	
  as	
  an	
  extension	
  
into	
  video.	
  In	
  an	
  interview	
  with	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  an	
  executive	
  with	
  Neo@Ogilvy,	
  a	
  digital	
  ad	
  
agency,	
  explained	
  that	
  some	
  advertisers	
  are	
  not	
  comfortable	
  with	
  running	
  ads	
  alongside	
  user-­‐generated	
  
content.	
  This	
  has	
  complicated	
  Google’s	
  efforts	
  to	
  increase	
  YouTube’s	
  revenue,	
  resulting	
  in	
  continued	
  
operating	
  losses.	
  12	
  

Hulu	
  is	
  an	
  example	
  of	
  the	
  freemium	
  model.	
  The	
  company	
  offers	
  consumers	
  free	
  access	
  to	
  select	
  video	
  
content	
  on	
  personal	
  computers.	
  For	
  a	
  monthly	
  fee,	
  consumers	
  can	
  upgrade	
  to	
  Hulu	
  Plus,	
  which	
  offers	
  a	
  
wider	
  variety	
  of	
  content	
  across	
  multiple	
  viewing	
  platforms.	
  

IPTV	
  Receiver	
  Platforms	
  Set	
  To	
  Emerge	
  Into	
  Mainstream	
  
In	
  2010,	
  internet-­‐connected	
  televisions	
  emerged,	
  bringing	
  online	
  content	
  aggregators	
  directly	
  into	
  the	
  
living	
  room.	
  One	
  of	
  the	
  most	
  visible	
  illustrations	
  of	
  this	
  trend	
  is	
  Google’s	
  launch	
  of	
  Google	
  TV,	
  an	
  IPTV	
  
receiver	
  platform	
  based	
  on	
  the	
  Android	
  operating	
  system.	
  Through	
  a	
  partnership	
  with	
  Sony,	
  Google’s	
  
software	
  has	
  been	
  embedded	
  within	
  select	
  television	
  models.13	
  Google	
  has	
  also	
  licensed	
  its	
  software	
  to	
  
manufacturers	
  of	
  set-­‐top	
  boxes,	
  such	
  as	
  Logitech.	
  Through	
  these	
  deals,	
  Google	
  aims	
  to	
  enable	
  
consumers	
  to	
  watch	
  video	
  from	
  any	
  website	
  directly	
  through	
  their	
  television,	
  providing	
  direct	
  access	
  to	
  
content	
  owners.	
  The	
  business	
  model	
  for	
  Google	
  TV	
  is	
  similar	
  to	
  that	
  of	
  Android:	
  the	
  Google	
  TV	
  platform	
  
is	
  available	
  to	
  device	
  manufacturers	
  without	
  charge	
  from	
  Google,	
  and	
  in	
  return,	
  Google	
  can	
  reach	
  
consumers	
  in	
  the	
  living	
  room	
  with	
  advertisements.	
  Although	
  some	
  content	
  owners	
  have	
  been	
  
supportive-­‐notably	
  Time	
  Warner,	
  owner	
  of	
  HBO-­‐have	
  reacted	
  negatively.	
  ABC,	
  NBC,	
  CBS,	
  and	
  Hulu	
  are	
  
among	
  the	
  services	
  that	
  block	
  Google	
  TV	
  devices	
  from	
  viewing	
  video	
  content.14	
  By	
  creating	
  a	
  keystone	
  


	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
10
   	
  Paul	
  Thomasch,	
  “UPDATE	
  3-­‐Disney	
  joins	
  Hulu	
  video	
  site,	
  takes	
  ownership	
  stake”,	
  Reuters,	
  Apr	
  30	
  2009,	
  
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/04/30/afx6364646.html,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
11
   	
  Peter	
  Kafka,	
  “NBC	
  CEO	
  Jeff	
  Zucker:	
  Hulu	
  Will	
  Start	
  Breaking	
  Even	
  “Soon””,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  May	
  28	
  2009,	
  
http://d7.allthingsd.com/20090528/d7-­‐interview-­‐nbc-­‐universal-­‐ceo-­‐jeff-­‐zucker/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
12
   	
  Kevin	
  J.	
  Delaney,	
  “Google	
  Push	
  To	
  Sell	
  Ads	
  On	
  YouTube	
  Hits	
  Snags	
  -­‐-­‐-­‐	
  Video	
  Site	
  Is	
  Key	
  To	
  Diversification;	
  The	
  Lawsuit	
  Factor”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  
Journal,	
  Jul	
  9	
  2008,	
  via	
  Factiva,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
13
   	
  Don	
  Clark,	
  “Google	
  Unveils	
  Software	
  to	
  Join	
  TV,	
  Web”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  May	
  21	
  2010,	
  via	
  ProQuest,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
14
   	
  Sam	
  Schechner,	
  Amir	
  Efrati,	
  “Networks,	
  Google	
  Spar	
  Over	
  Web	
  TV”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Oct	
  22	
  2010,	
  via	
  ProQuest,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  7	
  
	
  
	
  
platform,	
  the	
  success	
  of	
  Google	
  TV	
  could	
  ultimately	
  supplant	
  more	
  established	
  players	
  such	
  as	
  Hulu	
  and	
  
its	
  primary	
  owners:	
  ABC,	
  NBC,	
  and	
  FOX.	
  

Other	
  companies	
  offering	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  include	
  Apple	
  (Apple	
  TV),	
  Roku,	
  Microsoft	
  (Xbox	
  360	
  
Mediaroom),	
  and	
  Cisco	
  (Videoscape).	
  While	
  these	
  platforms	
  are	
  increasing	
  availability	
  of	
  IPTV	
  in	
  the	
  
living	
  room,	
  it	
  is	
  unlikely	
  that	
  cable	
  set-­‐top	
  boxes,	
  the	
  most	
  common	
  add-­‐on	
  device,	
  will	
  support	
  content	
  
aggregators.	
  Content	
  aggregators	
  provide	
  an	
  alternative	
  source	
  for	
  video	
  content	
  distinct	
  from	
  the	
  
traditional	
  subscription	
  model	
  offered	
  by	
  cable	
  companies.	
  Therefore,	
  for	
  a	
  cable	
  set-­‐top	
  box	
  to	
  support	
  
a	
  service	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix	
  or	
  Hulu	
  would	
  diminish	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  the	
  cable	
  operator’s	
  core	
  video	
  offerings.	
  
Nevertheless,	
  the	
  continued	
  proliferation	
  of	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  into	
  televisions	
  and	
  other	
  devices	
  
will	
  increase	
  the	
  reach	
  of	
  content	
  aggregators	
  into	
  the	
  living	
  room.	
  

IPTV	
  Receiver	
  Platforms	
  Moving	
  Into	
  Financial	
  Intermediation	
  
Device	
  manufacturers	
  are	
  primarily	
  limited	
  to	
  one-­‐off	
  revenue	
  from	
  a	
  consumer’s	
  initial	
  purchase	
  of	
  that	
  
item.	
  In	
  contrast,	
  consumer	
  payments	
  to	
  publishers	
  and	
  aggregators	
  for	
  content	
  represent	
  an	
  on-­‐going	
  
revenue	
  stream.	
  Developers	
  of	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  have	
  begun	
  to	
  recognize	
  this	
  opportunity	
  by	
  
integrating	
  the	
  capability	
  to	
  purchase	
  content	
  directly	
  from	
  their	
  platform.	
  

Apple’s	
  iTunes	
  Store	
  is	
  an	
  example	
  of	
  dominator	
  strategy	
  that	
  seeks	
  to	
  maximize	
  Apple’s	
  share	
  of	
  the	
  
overall	
  ecosystem.	
  In	
  February	
  2011,	
  Apple	
  announced	
  that	
  companies	
  who	
  sell	
  digital	
  content	
  for	
  
applications	
  on	
  iOS	
  devices	
  must	
  use	
  Apple’s	
  in-­‐app	
  payment	
  mechanism	
  to	
  process	
  transactions.	
  In	
  
exchange	
  for	
  30%	
  of	
  the	
  revenue	
  from	
  each	
  transaction,	
  Apple	
  would	
  provide	
  publishers	
  with	
  seamless	
  
integration	
  into	
  iOS	
  devices.	
  Although	
  Apple	
  has	
  yet	
  to	
  publically	
  state	
  whether	
  online	
  video	
  
aggregators,	
  such	
  as	
  Hulu	
  and	
  Netflix,	
  would	
  be	
  subject	
  to	
  the	
  new	
  rule,	
  other	
  aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  
Rhapsody,	
  a	
  music	
  subscription	
  service,	
  have	
  stated	
  that	
  Apple’s	
  stance	
  is	
  “economically	
  untenable”.15	
  
Apple,	
  as	
  an	
  existing	
  market	
  leader	
  in	
  Content	
  Aggregation	
  /	
  Financial	
  Intermediation	
  (iTunes	
  Music	
  
Store),	
  Electronics	
  Retailers	
  (Apple	
  Store),	
  and	
  IPTV	
  Receiver	
  Platform	
  (iOS,	
  Apple	
  TV),	
  is	
  using	
  its	
  strong	
  
market	
  position	
  to	
  capture	
  a	
  highly	
  attractive	
  space	
  within	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem.	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
15
       	
  Yukari	
  Iwatani	
  Kane,	
  Russell	
  Adams.	
  “Apple	
  Opens	
  a	
  Door,	
  Keeps	
  Keys”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Feb	
  16	
  ‘11,	
  via	
  ProQuest,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  6	
  ‘11	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  8	
  
	
  
	
  
ECOSYSTEM	
  HEALTH	
  ASSESSMENT	
  
The	
  health	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  will	
  be	
  evaluated	
  based	
  on	
  three	
  “critical	
  measures	
  of	
  health”:	
  productivity,	
  
robustness,	
  and	
  niche	
  creation.16	
  

High	
  Productivity,	
  Driven	
  By	
  Increasing	
  Consumer	
  Demand	
  and	
  Advertising	
  Revenue	
  
The	
  primary	
  measure	
  of	
  productivity	
  of	
  an	
  ecosystem	
  is	
  the	
  ability	
  of	
  firms	
  within	
  that	
  ecosystem	
  to	
  
generate	
  revenues.	
  For	
  the	
  evaluation	
  of	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem,	
  we	
  will	
  be	
  looking	
  at	
  value	
  and	
  cash	
  
generation	
  through	
  three	
  primary	
  sources:	
  device	
  unit	
  sales,	
  subscriber/pay-­‐per-­‐view,	
  and	
  advertising.	
  	
  

Unit	
  sales	
  of	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  have	
  been	
  growing	
  steadily	
  over	
  the	
  last	
  few	
  years.	
  In	
  2010,	
  Apple	
  
and	
  Roku	
  both	
  announced	
  that	
  they	
  have	
  sold	
  one	
  million	
  units	
  of	
  the	
  Apple	
  TV	
  and	
  Roku	
  Player	
  
respectively.17	
  Revenues	
  at	
  Roku	
  exceeded	
  $50	
  million	
  in	
  2010,	
  and	
  are	
  expected	
  to	
  reach	
  $100	
  million	
  
in	
  2011.18	
  While	
  this	
  represents	
  just	
  a	
  small	
  proportion	
  of	
  the	
  US	
  television	
  market,	
  hitting	
  the	
  one-­‐
millionth	
  unit	
  sales	
  mark	
  was	
  still	
  a	
  significant	
  milestone.	
  Demand	
  for	
  such	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  sets	
  delivering	
  
niche,	
  non-­‐traditional	
  television	
  content	
  has	
  seen	
  an	
  uptick	
  in	
  recent	
  years.	
  While	
  it	
  took	
  Apple	
  four	
  
years	
  to	
  hit	
  this	
  target	
  when	
  it	
  launched	
  the	
  Apple	
  TV	
  in	
  January	
  2007,	
  Roku	
  achieved	
  this	
  same	
  target	
  in	
  
a	
  little	
  over	
  a	
  year.	
  19,20	
  

Sales	
  of	
  other	
  non-­‐dedicated	
  IPTV	
  devices	
  have	
  seen	
  even	
  faster	
  growth.	
  Game	
  consoles	
  such	
  as	
  the	
  
Xbox	
  360,	
  PlayStation	
  3,	
  and	
  Nintendo	
  Wii	
  all	
  have	
  capabilities	
  to	
  connect	
  via	
  Wi-­‐Fi	
  to	
  IPTV	
  content	
  
aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix.	
  Since	
  its	
  launch,	
  the	
  Nintendo	
  Wii	
  has	
  generated	
  worldwide	
  sales	
  of	
  85	
  
million	
  units	
  (33	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  US),	
  while	
  the	
  Xbox	
  360	
  and	
  PlayStation	
  3	
  has	
  sold	
  over	
  50	
  million	
  units	
  
(19	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  US)	
  and	
  48	
  million	
  units	
  (12	
  million	
  in	
  the	
  US)	
  respectively.21,22,23	
  Furthermore,	
  many	
  
consumer	
  electronic	
  goods	
  such	
  as	
  HD	
  television	
  sets	
  and	
  Blu-­‐ray	
  players	
  by	
  LG,	
  Samsung,	
  Sony,	
  and	
  
Philips	
  come	
  standard	
  with	
  Wi-­‐Fi	
  connectivity,	
  providing	
  connectivity	
  to	
  IPTV	
  content	
  on	
  a	
  limited	
  basis.	
  

In	
  late	
  2010,	
  Roku	
  announced	
  that	
  it	
  would	
  begin	
  licensing	
  its	
  platform	
  to	
  third-­‐party	
  hardware	
  
manufacturers.24	
  In	
  a	
  move	
  seen	
  as	
  a	
  direct	
  challenge	
  to	
  the	
  much	
  delayed	
  Google	
  TV	
  platform,	
  this	
  is	
  
predicted	
  to	
  greatly	
  increase	
  market	
  penetration	
  for	
  Roku,	
  and	
  allow	
  many	
  more	
  consumers	
  access	
  to	
  
IPTV	
  content	
  available	
  only	
  through	
  the	
  Roku	
  Channel	
  Store.	
  

On	
  the	
  content	
  subscription	
  front,	
  content	
  aggregator	
  Netflix	
  announced	
  revenue	
  increases	
  of	
  34%,	
  with	
  
a	
  52%	
  surge	
  in	
  profits	
  during	
  their	
  forth	
  quarter	
  earnings	
  call.25	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal	
  reported	
  that	
  
Netflix’s	
  “movie-­‐streaming	
  service	
  fueled	
  the	
  addition	
  of	
  3.1	
  million	
  subscribers	
  over	
  the	
  holidays”,	
  


	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
16
   	
  Marco	
  Iansiti,	
  Roy	
  Levien.	
  “Strategy	
  as	
  Ecology”,	
  Harvard	
  Business	
  Review.	
  Mar	
  2004,	
  p.	
  72	
  	
  
17
   	
  Tracey	
  Schelmetic,	
  “Apple	
  TV	
  and	
  Roku	
  to	
  Announce	
  Million-­‐Sales	
  Milestone;	
  Google	
  TV	
  Lags”,	
  TMCNet,	
  
http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/128696-­‐apple-­‐tv-­‐roku-­‐announce-­‐million-­‐sales-­‐milestones-­‐google.htm,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  05	
  2011	
  
18
   	
  Ibid.	
  
19
   	
  Wolfgang	
  Gruener,	
  “Apple’s	
  History	
  Lesson:	
  The	
  iPhone	
  and	
  AppleTV”,	
  TGDaily,	
  http://www.tgdaily.com/mobility-­‐features/30712-­‐apples-­‐
history-­‐lesson-­‐the-­‐iphone-­‐and-­‐appletv,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
20
   	
  Press	
  Release,	
  “Roku	
  Launches	
  Open	
  Platform	
  for	
  Delivery	
  of	
  Content	
  to	
  the	
  TV”,	
  
http://www.roku.com/Libraries/Press_Releases/Roku_Channel_Store_Release.sflb.ashx,	
  Nov	
  2009,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  	
  
21
   	
  Nintendo	
  Co.	
  Ltd.	
  Consolidated	
  Financial	
  Highlights,	
  http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2011/110127e.pdf,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
22
   	
  Tor	
  Thorsen,	
  “Xbox	
  Sells	
  50	
  million;	
  Kinect	
  ships	
  8	
  million”,	
  Gamespot,	
  http://ces.gamespot.com/story/6285921/xbox-­‐360-­‐sells-­‐50-­‐million-­‐
kinect-­‐8-­‐million,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
23
   	
  “PlayStation®3	
  Worldwide	
  Hardware	
  Unit	
  Sales	
  |	
  CORPORATE	
  INFORMATION|	
  Sony	
  Computer	
  Entertainment	
  Inc:”,	
  
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
24
   	
  Mark	
  Hachman,	
  “Roku	
  Says	
  It	
  Will	
  License	
  Platform”,	
  PCMag,	
  http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2371611,00.asp,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  ‘11	
  
25
   	
  Nick	
  Wingfield,	
  “Netflix	
  Sees	
  Surge	
  in	
  Subscribers”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Jan	
  27	
  2011,	
  via	
  Factiva,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  9	
  
	
  
	
  
bringing	
  its	
  total	
  subscriber	
  base	
  to	
  over	
  20	
  million.26	
  Other	
  IPTV	
  subscription	
  based	
  content	
  aggregators	
  
are	
  also	
  slowly	
  gaining	
  traction.	
  One	
  Touch	
  Intelligence	
  recently	
  estimated	
  that	
  Hulu	
  Plus,	
  a	
  relatively	
  
new	
  entrant	
  into	
  the	
  subscription-­‐based	
  IPTV	
  model,	
  has	
  achieved	
  4%	
  conversion	
  across	
  Hulu’s	
  total	
  
user	
  base	
  of	
  30	
  million.27	
  Another	
  report	
  by	
  Screen	
  Digest	
  puts	
  Apple’s	
  iTunes	
  Store	
  at	
  the	
  forefront	
  of	
  
on-­‐demand	
  video	
  sales	
  and	
  rentals,	
  noting	
  that	
  overall	
  sales	
  increased	
  60%	
  in	
  2010	
  compared	
  to	
  2009.28	
  	
  

Online	
  video	
  advertising	
  has	
  experienced	
  a	
  resurgence	
  in	
  recent	
  years	
  as	
  “rising	
  broadband	
  penetration	
  
and	
  increased	
  broadband	
  speeds”	
  has	
  increased	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  streaming	
  video,	
  and	
  made	
  online	
  video	
  
advertising	
  feasible.29	
  PwC	
  predicts	
  that	
  online	
  “video	
  advertising	
  spend	
  in	
  North	
  America	
  will	
  grow	
  at	
  
an	
  8.4%	
  compound	
  annual	
  rate	
  to	
  $3.5	
  billion	
  in	
  2012	
  from	
  $2.4	
  billion	
  in	
  2008.”30	
  Several	
  factors	
  are	
  
driving	
  this	
  trend.	
  Multiple	
  studies	
  show	
  that	
  more	
  and	
  more	
  consumers	
  are	
  watching	
  television	
  
programs	
  on	
  the	
  web,	
  climbing	
  to	
  22%	
  in	
  2010	
  from	
  8%	
  in	
  2006.31	
  In	
  addition,	
  research	
  from	
  comScore	
  
indicates	
  “people	
  who	
  watch	
  TV	
  shows	
  online	
  will	
  tolerate	
  about	
  twice	
  the	
  amount	
  of	
  ads	
  the	
  medium	
  
now	
  averages”.32	
  All	
  these	
  factors	
  working	
  together	
  are	
  predicted	
  to	
  drive	
  online	
  video	
  advertising	
  
revenues	
  for	
  both	
  content	
  owners/creators	
  and	
  aggregators	
  in	
  the	
  years	
  ahead.	
  	
  

Figure	
  2	
  –	
  North	
  America	
  Market	
  Size	
  for	
  Online	
  Video	
  Advertising	
  (ex	
  Mobile;	
  2004-­‐2013p)	
  
       Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market† (US$ millions)

       North America                                                                                          2004                           2005                      2006      2007         2008p           2009           2010          2011      2012        2013
       United States                                                                                             960                       1,000                      1,010      2,120         2,350          2,450          2,575         2,765     3,070      3,500
       Canada                                                                                                       NA                             NA                   NA            8           16            18             20            24        32          45
       Total                                                                                                     960                       1,000                      1,010      2,128         2,366          2,468          2,595         2,789     3,102      3,545

       †At average 2008 exchange rates.
       Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates



       Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market growth (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2009–13
       North America                                                                                         2004                        2005                        2006     2007        2008p        2009       2010          2011         2012     2013      CAGR
       United States                                                                                           46.6                           4.2                     1.0     109.9        10.8         4.3            5.1           7.4      11.0     14.0       8.3
       Canada                                                                                                       —                          —                      —         —         100.0        12.5           11.1       20.0         33.3     40.6      23.0
       Total                                                                                                   46.6                           4.2                     1.0     110.7        11.2         4.3            5.1           7.5      11.2     14.3       8.4

       Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates

Source:	
  “Global	
  entertainment	
  and	
  media	
  outlook	
  2009	
  –2013”,	
  PwC,	
  Jun	
  2009	
  
            We expect declines in display and classified to offset                                                                                                                         Including e-mail, sponsorships, lead generation, and
Robustness	
  Highly	
  Dependent	
  Upon	
  Cthat
  gains in search and video in 2009, with the result        other categories, wired online advertising for the overall
  overall wired Internet advertising will decrease. ooperation	
  From	
  Content	
  Owners	
   percent compound
                                                            forecast period will advance at a 5.8
                                                                                                                                                                                          annual rate to $32.9 billion in 2013 from $24.8 billion in
Robustness	
  oa 3.9 ecosystem	
  may	
  2009, easured	
  several	
  w2008.One	
  method	
  is	
  to	
  analyze	
  the	
  antensity	
  of	
  
   We expect
                    f	
  an	
  percent decline in be	
  mwith the
   US falling by 4 percent and Canada by 3.5 percent.
                                                                                 ays.	
   The United States will increase at i 5.7 percent
                                                                                rate compounded annually to $30.9 billion, and Canada
partnerships	
  w
   Spending will ithin	
  the	
  e2010 as gains ith	
  content	
  aggregators	
  as	
  a	
  measure	
  of	
  the	
  quality	
  of	
  content	
  
                          edge up in cosystem	
  w in search and
                                                                                will grow by 7.7 percent on a compound annual basis
   video offset declines in display and classified. In both
available	
  for	
  consumers.	
  Content	
  that	
  consumers	
  are	
  willing	
  tbillion. for	
  creates	
  value	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  divided	
  
   countries we expect mid-single-digit increases in 2011
                                                                                to $2 o	
  pay	
  
   and double-digit growth in 2012–13.
and	
  shared	
  for	
  the	
  benefit	
  of	
  the	
  entire	
  ecosystem.	
  

	
  	
  Wired	
  	
  Internet	
  advertising	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  (US$ millions)
        	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
   market 	
  	
  	
  	
  
                                                                                                                †

26
   	
  Ibid.	
  America
 North                                                     2004              2005           2006          2007         2008p          2009       2010       2011       2012           2013
27
   	
  Will	
  Richmond,	
  “Report:	
  Hulu	
  Plus	
  Starting	
  to	
  Get	
  Some	
  Traction”,	
  Seeking	
  Alpha,	
  http://seekingalpha.com/article/237232-­‐report-­‐hulu-­‐plus-­‐
 United States                                            9,626           12,542          16,879         21,206        23,448        22,520    22,750     24,330      27,230        30,935
starting-­‐to-­‐get-­‐some-­‐traction,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
28
   	
  “Apple’s	
  iTunes	
  Store	
  Dominates	
  Online	
  DVD	
  Sales,	
  VOD”,	
  Studio	
  Briefing,	
  http://www.studiobriefing.net/2011/02/apples-­‐itunes-­‐store-­‐ 1,970
 Canada                                                     341                527           844          1,164         1,360         1,313      1,336     1,407       1,641
dominates-­‐online-­‐dvd-­‐sales-­‐vod/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
   17,723
 Total                                                    9,967           13,069                         22,370        24,808        23,833    24,086     25,737      28,871        32,905
29
   	
  “Global	
  entertainment	
  and	
  media	
  outlook	
  2009	
  –2013”,	
  PwC,	
  Jun	
  2009,	
  p.	
  155	
  
 †At average 2008 exchange rates.
30
   	
  Ibid.	
  
 Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates
31
   	
  Wayne	
  Friedman,	
  “TV	
  Trends:	
  More	
  Internet	
  TV	
  Viewers	
  Erode	
  Trad	
  Media”,	
  MediaDailyNews,	
  
http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=124522,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
32
   	
  “Online	
  TV	
  Viewers	
  will	
  Tolerate	
  Twice	
  As	
  Many	
  Ads”,	
  Television	
  Broadcast,	
  http://www.televisionbroadcast.com/article/106518,	
  accessed	
  
Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  10	
  
	
  
	
  
Firms	
  in	
  the	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platform	
  niche	
  such	
  as	
  Roku	
  have	
  been	
  actively	
  seeking	
  new	
  channels	
  and	
  
content	
  for	
  inclusion	
  into	
  their	
  channel	
  lineup.	
  With	
  over	
  100	
  channels	
  to	
  choose	
  from,	
  both	
  free	
  and	
  
subscription	
  based,	
  Roku	
  is	
  a	
  leader	
  as	
  a	
  provider	
  of	
  non-­‐traditional	
  television	
  content.	
  Roku	
  provides	
  a	
  
broadcast	
  platform	
  for	
  niche	
  and	
  international	
  channels	
  to	
  deliver	
  their	
  content,	
  often	
  with	
  too	
  narrow	
  
of	
  a	
  focus	
  to	
  appeal	
  to	
  traditional	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  television	
  broadcasters.	
  

Content	
  aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  Netflix	
  and	
  Hulu	
  are	
  also	
  adding	
  partners	
  to	
  continuously	
  boost	
  their	
  
content	
  library.	
  Hulu,	
  as	
  a	
  joint	
  venture	
  of	
  Disney,	
  Fox,	
  and	
  NBC,	
  has	
  access	
  to	
  a	
  rich	
  library	
  of	
  content	
  to	
  
draw	
  upon	
  from	
  its	
  equity	
  partners.	
  Most	
  notably	
  absent	
  from	
  the	
  Hulu	
  lineup	
  is	
  CBS	
  and	
  Warner	
  
Brother’s	
  CW	
  network.	
  However,	
  what	
  has	
  been	
  regarded	
  as	
  Hulu’s	
  loss	
  is	
  Netflix’s	
  gain.	
  Netflix	
  recently	
  
signed	
  a	
  deal	
  with	
  CBS	
  to	
  begin	
  distributing	
  CBS’s	
  content	
  to	
  its	
  subscribers.33	
  

The	
  licensing	
  of	
  the	
  Roku	
  platform	
  and	
  Google	
  TV	
  platform	
  to	
  third-­‐party	
  hardware	
  manufacturers	
  
indicates	
  the	
  beginnings	
  of	
  a	
  convergence	
  between	
  standard	
  home-­‐theater	
  equipment,	
  such	
  as	
  HDTVs	
  
and	
  Blu-­‐ray	
  players,	
  with	
  IPTV	
  hardware.	
  Until	
  recently,	
  IPTV	
  receivers	
  have	
  been	
  considered	
  a	
  niche	
  
supplemental	
  device.	
  As	
  these	
  platforms	
  become	
  standard	
  equipment	
  in	
  consumer	
  electronic	
  goods,	
  
they	
  become	
  more	
  accessible	
  to	
  the	
  mass	
  consumer,	
  increasing	
  the	
  robustness	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem.	
  

However,	
  the	
  continued	
  robustness	
  of	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem	
  hinges	
  on	
  content	
  owners	
  continuing	
  to	
  
provide	
  aggregators	
  with	
  quality	
  content.	
  A	
  large	
  draw	
  for	
  consumers	
  towards	
  IPTV	
  today	
  is	
  the	
  result	
  of	
  
the	
  rich	
  content	
  available	
  through	
  aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  Hulu	
  and	
  Netflix.	
  If	
  content	
  owners	
  shift	
  towards	
  
a	
  dominator	
  strategy	
  by	
  withdrawing	
  content	
  from	
  aggregators	
  and	
  limiting	
  consumer	
  access	
  to	
  direct	
  
distribution	
  channels,	
  a	
  reduced	
  consumer	
  value	
  proposition	
  could	
  lead	
  to	
  the	
  failure	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem.	
  	
  

Niches	
  Emerging	
  In	
  Amateur	
  Content,	
  Gaming	
  
The	
  growth	
  of	
  IPTV	
  has	
  spun	
  off	
  a	
  flurry	
  of	
  niche	
  creation	
  in	
  the	
  ecosystem.	
  Television	
  content	
  
production	
  in	
  the	
  past	
  was	
  limited	
  to	
  large	
  studios	
  with	
  big	
  budgets,	
  and	
  supported	
  by	
  heavy	
  subscriber	
  
fees	
  and	
  advertising	
  revenue.	
  With	
  IPTV,	
  independent	
  producers,	
  some	
  with	
  just	
  a	
  cell	
  phone	
  camera,	
  
can	
  create	
  content	
  and	
  deliver	
  it	
  to	
  millions	
  of	
  viewers	
  through	
  content	
  aggregators	
  such	
  as	
  YouTube	
  
and	
  Vimeo.	
  While	
  advertisers	
  have	
  hesitated	
  to	
  fully	
  embrace	
  amateur	
  content,	
  Google’s	
  acquisition	
  of	
  
YouTube	
  illustrates	
  the	
  potential	
  for	
  monetizing	
  independent	
  and	
  amateur	
  video.	
  

Gaming	
  through	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  may	
  be	
  the	
  next	
  emerging	
  market	
  opportunity,	
  and	
  already,	
  
this	
  is	
  generating	
  niche	
  creation	
  within	
  the	
  space.	
  With	
  the	
  integration	
  of	
  the	
  iPad	
  and	
  Apple	
  TV,	
  several	
  
app	
  creators	
  have	
  designed	
  multiplayer	
  games	
  that	
  utilize	
  the	
  iPad	
  as	
  a	
  game	
  controller,	
  with	
  graphics	
  
projected	
  onto	
  a	
  television	
  display	
  through	
  the	
  Apple	
  TV	
  set-­‐top	
  box.	
  Furthermore,	
  rumors	
  in	
  the	
  
blogosphere	
  hint	
  that	
  “new	
  code	
  in	
  the	
  iOS	
  4.3	
  beta	
  3	
  firmware	
  may	
  soon	
  support	
  online	
  gaming”.34	
  
Roku	
  also	
  currently	
  offers	
  several	
  basic	
  games	
  through	
  its	
  Roku	
  Channel	
  Store.	
  As	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  gaming	
  
emerges	
  within	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem,	
  niche	
  creation	
  is	
  sure	
  to	
  follow	
  as	
  entrepreneurs	
  seek	
  to	
  capture	
  
value	
  from	
  this	
  market	
  segment.	
  	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
33
   	
  “CBS	
  and	
  Netflix	
  announce	
  2-­‐year	
  Licensing	
  Agreement	
  for	
  Library	
  Content”,	
  Daily	
  News,	
  http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_17453787,	
  
accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
34
   	
  Ross	
  Miller,	
  “Apple	
  TV	
  Gaming	
  Hinted	
  Strongly	
  in	
  iOS	
  4.3	
  beta	
  code”,	
  Engadget,	
  http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/09/apple-­‐tv-­‐gaming-­‐
hinted-­‐strongly-­‐in-­‐ios-­‐4-­‐3-­‐beta-­‐code/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  11	
  
	
  
	
  
Overall,	
  Ecosystem	
  Healthy	
  With	
  Strong	
  Growth	
  Prospects	
  
As	
  the	
  ecology	
  of	
  IPTV	
  evolves,	
  forward-­‐looking	
  statements	
  of	
  revenues	
  generated	
  by	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  
seem	
  healthy;	
  robustness	
  of	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  is	
  strong,	
  but	
  not	
  without	
  the	
  absence	
  of	
  risks	
  that	
  could	
  
destroy	
  the	
  ecosystem;	
  and	
  niche	
  creation	
  continues	
  to	
  advance	
  in	
  this	
  relatively	
  young	
  ecosystem.	
  All	
  
this	
  points	
  to	
  a	
  cautiously	
  healthy	
  ecosystem.	
  Allowed	
  to	
  develop	
  fairly	
  and	
  unrestrictedly,	
  IPTV	
  is	
  
expected	
  to	
  radically	
  alter	
  the	
  market	
  for	
  consumer	
  television.	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  12	
  
	
  
	
  
GAME	
  CHANGERS	
  

AllVid	
  Could	
  Dramatically	
  Increase	
  Consumer	
  Access	
  To	
  IPTV	
  Content	
  
AllVid	
  is	
  an	
  IP	
  gateway	
  adaptor	
  proposed	
  by	
  the	
  Federal	
  Communications	
  Commission	
  (FCC)	
  as	
  a	
  
replacement	
  for	
  the	
  failed	
  CableCARD	
  initiative.35	
  In	
  its	
  current	
  form,	
  the	
  AllVid	
  requirement	
  will	
  
“require	
  U.S.	
  cable,	
  satellite	
  and	
  telecommunication	
  TV	
  operators	
  to	
  supply	
  all	
  their	
  customers	
  a	
  device	
  
or	
  gateway	
  –	
  capable	
  of	
  delivering	
  as	
  many	
  as	
  six	
  different	
  IP	
  video	
  streams	
  to	
  TVs,	
  DVRs	
  or	
  other	
  
equipment	
  in	
  the	
  home	
  –	
  beginning	
  no	
  later	
  than	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  2012.”36	
  

The	
  implementation	
  of	
  AllVid	
  will	
  significantly	
  impact	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem,	
  as	
  it	
  places	
  IPTV	
  content	
  on	
  
an	
  equal	
  playing	
  field	
  as	
  traditional	
  cable	
  television	
  content.	
  Viewers	
  will	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  search	
  for	
  content	
  
across	
  the	
  entire	
  spectrum	
  of	
  IPTV	
  niche	
  channels,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  traditional	
  channels	
  offered	
  by	
  cable,	
  
satellite,	
  and	
  telecommunications	
  providers.	
  The	
  effect	
  of	
  this	
  is	
  two	
  fold.	
  

First,	
  niche,	
  independent,	
  or	
  amateur	
  content	
  currently	
  only	
  available	
  on	
  an	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platform	
  such	
  
as	
  Roku,	
  can	
  directly	
  compete	
  for	
  viewers,	
  subscribership,	
  and	
  advertising	
  dollars	
  against	
  the	
  much	
  
larger	
  broadcast	
  and	
  cable	
  channels.	
  This	
  will	
  lead	
  to	
  an	
  expansion	
  of	
  such	
  niche	
  channels,	
  and	
  possible	
  
migration	
  of	
  some	
  smaller	
  channels	
  from	
  a	
  broadcast	
  to	
  an	
  IP	
  platform.	
  

Secondly,	
  content	
  owners	
  will	
  view	
  aggregators	
  like	
  Hulu	
  as	
  a	
  substitute	
  to	
  their	
  broadcast	
  channels,	
  
causing	
  tension	
  in	
  the	
  relationship	
  between	
  the	
  content	
  owners	
  and	
  aggregators.	
  Furthermore,	
  
fragmentation	
  of	
  the	
  channel	
  lineups	
  of	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  operators	
  may	
  occur,	
  as	
  more	
  and	
  more	
  
niche	
  channels	
  migrate	
  towards	
  the	
  IP	
  platform,	
  in	
  an	
  attempt	
  to	
  capture	
  value	
  through	
  direct	
  
subscription.	
  As	
  a	
  result,	
  the	
  traditional	
  bundled	
  pricing	
  models	
  of	
  the	
  incumbent	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  
broadcasters	
  could	
  shift	
  towards	
  a	
  la	
  carte	
  pricing,	
  ending	
  the	
  current	
  common	
  industry	
  practice	
  of	
  
cross-­‐subsidizing	
  channels	
  within	
  a	
  content	
  owner’s	
  portfolio.	
  

Rollout	
  Of	
  4G	
  Networks	
  Enables	
  Wireless	
  IPTV	
  Content	
  Delivery	
  
4G,	
  the	
  forth	
  generation	
  cellular	
  wireless	
  standard,	
  promises	
  to	
  deliver	
  download	
  speeds	
  of	
  up	
  to	
  100	
  
Mbps	
  over	
  a	
  wireless	
  cellular	
  network.37	
  This	
  will	
  enable	
  mobile	
  users	
  to	
  stream	
  multiple	
  channels	
  of	
  HD	
  
video	
  content	
  on	
  their	
  mobile	
  devices,	
  and	
  more	
  importantly,	
  allow	
  users	
  to	
  unplug	
  from	
  fixed-­‐line	
  
broadband	
  connections.	
  

The	
  biggest	
  limiting	
  factor	
  for	
  IPTV	
  growth	
  today	
  is	
  its	
  reliance	
  on	
  broadband	
  internet	
  connections.	
  
While	
  broadband	
  penetration	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  reached	
  94.5%	
  in	
  2009,	
  broadband	
  speeds	
  still	
  lag	
  against	
  the	
  
EU,	
  with	
  US	
  connections	
  averaging	
  9.54	
  Mbps.38,39	
  4G	
  connectivity,	
  without	
  the	
  need	
  to	
  improve	
  any	
  
physical	
  wired	
  infrastructure,	
  while	
  providing	
  uninterrupted	
  mobile	
  coverage,	
  is	
  projected	
  to	
  solve	
  these	
  
issues	
  and	
  impact	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem	
  in	
  several	
  ways.	
  


	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
35
   	
  Clint	
  Boulton,	
  “Google	
  Touts	
  AllVid	
  to	
  FCC	
  for	
  Google	
  TV”,	
  eWeek,	
  http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Web-­‐Services-­‐Web-­‐20-­‐and-­‐SOA/Google-­‐
Touts-­‐AllVid-­‐to-­‐FCC-­‐for-­‐Google-­‐TV-­‐743680/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
36
   	
  Todd	
  Spangler,	
  “FCC	
  AllVid	
  Rule	
  Would	
  Ban	
  The	
  Set-­‐Top	
  As	
  We	
  Know	
  It”,	
  MultiChannel	
  News,	
  http://www.multichannel.com/article/451984-­‐
FCC_AllVid_Rule_Would_Ban_The_Set_Top_As_We_Know_It_Analyst.php,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
37
   	
  “ITU	
  global	
  standard	
  for	
  international	
  mobile	
  telecommunications”,	
  http://www.itu.int/ITU-­‐R/index.asp,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
38
   	
  “Study:	
  Americans	
  Lead	
  World	
  in	
  Broadband	
  Use	
  -­‐	
  US	
  Broadband	
  Penetration	
  Jumps	
  to	
  94.5%	
  -­‐	
  December	
  2009	
  Bandwidth	
  Report”,	
  	
  
http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0912/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
39
   	
  Tim	
  Conneally,	
  “US	
  Broadband	
  Speeds	
  Improve	
  in	
  2010,	
  Still	
  Second	
  Rate	
  Against	
  EU”,	
  Betanews,	
  http://www.betanews.com/article/US-­‐
broadband-­‐speeds-­‐improved-­‐in-­‐2010-­‐still-­‐second-­‐rate-­‐against-­‐EU/1297805705,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
 IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  13	
  
	
  
	
  
First,	
  IPTV	
  receiver	
  platforms	
  will	
  integrate	
  support	
  for	
  embedded	
  wireless	
  chips	
  to	
  tap	
  into	
  4G	
  wireless	
  
networks.	
  Wireless	
  chipmakers	
  such	
  as	
  Qualcomm	
  will	
  realize	
  an	
  uptick	
  in	
  demand	
  as	
  the	
  “internet	
  of	
  
things”	
  concept	
  takes	
  hold	
  in	
  IPTV	
  consumer	
  electronic	
  products.	
  Furthermore,	
  fixed-­‐line	
  broadband	
  
providers,	
  such	
  as	
  Comcast	
  and	
  Time	
  Warner,	
  will	
  face	
  renewed	
  competition	
  from	
  wireless	
  broadband	
  
providers,	
  such	
  as	
  AT&T	
  and	
  T-­‐Mobile.	
  

Second,	
  4G	
  connectivity	
  will	
  enable	
  real-­‐time	
  interactivity	
  with	
  video	
  content,	
  and	
  new	
  niches	
  will	
  form	
  
within	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  to	
  develop	
  interactive	
  content	
  and	
  ways	
  of	
  monetizing	
  such	
  activity.	
  Content	
  
owners	
  and	
  producers	
  must	
  rethink	
  how	
  they	
  produce	
  television	
  content,	
  and	
  how	
  best	
  to	
  leverage	
  this	
  
interactivity	
  for	
  maximum	
  profit	
  generation.	
  In	
  addition,	
  the	
  shift	
  toward	
  4G	
  will	
  reduce	
  bandwidth	
  unit	
  
costs	
  for	
  operators,	
  whose	
  savings	
  can	
  then	
  be	
  passed	
  on	
  to	
  consumers.	
  Broadband	
  penetration	
  in	
  rural	
  
areas	
  still	
  lags	
  that	
  of	
  urban	
  areas,	
  in	
  large	
  part	
  due	
  to	
  the	
  lower	
  potential	
  return	
  on	
  investment	
  fixed-­‐
line	
  operators	
  face	
  in	
  rural	
  communities.	
  MatrixStream,	
  a	
  start-­‐up	
  within	
  the	
  IPTV	
  ecosystem,	
  believes	
  
that	
  mobile	
  operators	
  could	
  deploy	
  IPTV	
  networks	
  over	
  4G	
  networks	
  at	
  just	
  20%	
  of	
  the	
  cost	
  for	
  a	
  similar	
  
deployment	
  over	
  a	
  fixed-­‐line	
  network.40	
  

Dynamic	
  Ad	
  Placement	
  Brings	
  Targeted	
  Advertising	
  To	
  Television	
  
Cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  companies	
  are	
  experimenting	
  with	
  technologies	
  that	
  allow	
  them	
  to	
  provide	
  highly	
  
targeted	
  ads	
  to	
  individual	
  households,	
  based	
  on	
  that	
  household’s	
  viewing	
  behavior	
  and	
  other	
  personal	
  
and	
  demographic	
  data.41	
  

The	
  concept	
  of	
  dynamic	
  ad	
  placement	
  is	
  not	
  new.	
  Internet	
  users	
  have	
  been	
  exposed	
  to	
  online	
  ads	
  that	
  
aggregate	
  user	
  information	
  from	
  a	
  variety	
  sources	
  to	
  deliver	
  targeted	
  messaging.	
  With	
  dynamic	
  ad	
  
placement	
  on	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite,	
  data	
  mining	
  companies	
  can	
  combine	
  viewing	
  data	
  with	
  frequent	
  
shopper	
  cards	
  for	
  a	
  specific	
  address,	
  and	
  “turn	
  up	
  surprising	
  associations	
  such	
  as:	
  “Jersey	
  Shore”	
  viewers	
  
are	
  frequent	
  buyers	
  of	
  yogurt.”42	
  The	
  fundamental	
  limitation	
  that	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  companies	
  face	
  is	
  
that	
  the	
  data	
  collected	
  is	
  aggregated	
  by	
  household,	
  meaning	
  that	
  a	
  teenager’s	
  constant	
  viewing	
  of	
  the	
  
MTV	
  channel,	
  and	
  her	
  parent’s	
  shopping	
  behavior	
  may	
  combine	
  to	
  result	
  in	
  ads	
  being	
  shown	
  that	
  appeal	
  
and	
  relate	
  to	
  neither.	
  

With	
  IPTV,	
  and	
  especially	
  with	
  the	
  growth	
  in	
  IPTV	
  being	
  viewed	
  over	
  mobile	
  platforms,	
  user	
  data	
  
collected	
  for	
  dynamic	
  ad	
  placement	
  can	
  be	
  far	
  more	
  individualized	
  than	
  what	
  traditional	
  cable	
  and	
  
satellite	
  companies	
  can	
  obtain.	
  By	
  integrating	
  IPTV	
  viewing	
  data	
  with	
  online	
  behavior	
  and	
  transaction	
  
history,	
  IPTV	
  providers	
  are	
  positioned	
  to	
  build	
  far	
  more	
  robust	
  user	
  profiles,	
  providing	
  advertisers	
  with	
  a	
  
significantly	
  greater	
  value	
  proposition	
  than	
  that	
  offered	
  by	
  cable	
  and	
  satellite	
  providers.	
  




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
40
   	
  “New	
  4G	
  IPTV	
  Platform	
  Includes	
  3D,	
  1080p,	
  HD	
  and	
  7.1	
  Surround	
  Sound”,	
  http://www.worldtvpc.com/blog/4g-­‐iptv-­‐platform-­‐includes-­‐3d-­‐
1080p-­‐hd-­‐71-­‐surround-­‐sound/,	
  accessed	
  Mar	
  06	
  2011	
  
41
   	
  Jessica	
  Vascellaro,	
  “TV’s	
  Next	
  Wave:	
  Tuning	
  Into	
  You”,	
  The	
  Wall	
  Street	
  Journal,	
  Mar	
  07	
  2011	
  	
  
42
   	
  Ibid.	
  
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         	
  

 IPTV%Ecosystem:%RelaAvely%Fragmented,%Leading%to%MulAple%Layers%of%Intermediaries%
 Legend%(note:%size%of%arrows%represents%magnitude%of%flows)%%                                                                                                                                   ILLUSTRATIVE%
      Financial+Flow+       Content+Flow+
                                                                                                                                            AdverAsing%Networks%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          APPENDIX	
  




                                  Content%Owners%/%                                                      Content%Aggregators%                                                      Content+Delivery+
                                     Publishers%                                                                                                                                      Networks+




      B2B%TransacAons%
                                                                Financial%Intermediaries%


                                                                                                                                                            Internet+Service+
                                         IPTV%Receiver%Pla.orms%                                                                                               Providers+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit	
  1	
  –	
  Map	
  of	
  IPTV	
  Ecosystem	
  (Landscape	
  Orientation)	
  




      C2B%TransacAons%
                                 Electronics+Retailers+                                                                                              Consumers%


Sources:+Team+analysis;+logos+reproduced+under+Fair+Use+excepCon+(17+U.S.C.+§+107)+for+nonLprofit+educaConal+purposes;+icons+obtained+from+iconarchive.com;+tv+image+obtained+from+sxc.hu+(royaltyLfree)+
                                                                                                                                                                                                           	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            	
  IPTV:	
  Disrupting	
  the	
  Balance	
  of	
  Power	
  in	
  the	
  US	
  Media	
  Industry	
  |	
  14	
  

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IPTV: Disrupting the Balance of Power in the US Media Industry

  • 1. Michael Tang Kenneth Ying MBA  Candidate  |  Class  of  2012   MBA  Candidate  |  Class  of  2012   Marshall  School  of  Business   Marshall  School  of  Business   University  of  Southern  California   University  of  Southern  California   Popovich  Hall  310   Popovich  Hall  310   Los  Angeles,  CA  90089-­‐2632   Los  Angeles,  CA  90089-­‐2632           IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of   Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry   Prepared  by  Michael  Tang  and  Kenneth  Ying  for  Professor  Omar  El  Sawy  (GSBA  556)   March  8,  2011       Image  source:  http://www.sxc.hu/photo/496914  
  • 2.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  1       Table  of  Contents   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................ 2 OVERVIEW OF IPTV WITHIN THE US MARKET ................................................ 3 IPTV  Reducing  Barriers  To  Entry  For  Video  Distribution  ..............................................................................  3 Online  Content  Aggregators  Emerging  As  Disruptor  ...................................................................................  4 THE IPTV ECOSYSTEM ............................................................................ 5 Relatively  Fragmented,  Leading  To  Multiple  Layers  Of  Intermediaries  .......................................................  5 Figure  1  –  Map  of  IPTV  Ecosystem  ...........................................................................................................  5 Publishers  Originate  Professionally  Sourced  Video  Content  .....................................................................  5 Aggregators  Provide  Content  Owners  With  Secure  Distribution  And  Shared  Revenue  ............................  5 IPTV  Receiver  Platforms  Set  To  Emerge  Into  Mainstream  ...........................................................................  6 IPTV  Receiver  Platforms  Moving  Into  Financial  Intermediation  ...............................................................  7 ECOSYSTEM HEALTH ASSESSMENT ............................................................. 8 High  Productivity,  Driven  By  Increasing  Consumer  Demand  and  Advertising  Revenue  ..............................  8 Figure  2  –  North  America  Market  Size  for  Online  Video  Advertising  (ex  Mobile;  2004-­‐2013p)   ...............  9 Robustness  Highly  Dependent  Upon  Cooperation  From  Content  Owners  ..................................................  9 Niches  Emerging  In  Amateur  Content,  Gaming  .........................................................................................  10 Overall,  Ecosystem  Healthy  With  Strong  Growth  Prospects  .....................................................................  11 GAME CHANGERS ................................................................................. 12 AllVid  Could  Dramatically  Increase  Consumer  Access  To  IPTV  Content  ....................................................  12 Rollout  Of  4G  Networks  Enables  Wireless  IPTV  Content  Delivery  .............................................................  12 Dynamic  Ad  Placement  Brings  Targeted  Advertising  To  Television  ...........................................................  13 APPENDIX .......................................................................................... 14 Exhibit  1  –  Map  of  IPTV  Ecosystem  (Landscape  Orientation)  ....................................................................  14  
  • 3.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  2       EXECUTIVE  SUMMARY   The  Internet  Protocol  Television  (IPTV)  ecosystem  in  the  United  States  is  poised  to  move  into  the   mainstream,  driven  by  growing  consumer  demand  and  advertising  revenues.  High  productivity,  with   niches  emerging  in  amateur  content  and  online  gaming,  points  to  a  cautiously  healthy  ecosystem,  that  if   allowed  to  develop  fairly  and  unrestrictedly,  may  radically  alter  the  market  for  consumer  television.   Market  research  firm  Strategy  Analytics  predicts  revenue  from  the  US  IPTV  ecosystem  will  reach  $15   billion  by  2013,  while  PricewaterhouseCoopers  (PwC),  a  consultancy,  estimates  that  17  million   households  in  the  US  will  subscribe  to  IPTV  services  by  2013.  This  increase  represents  a  50%  compound   annual  growth  rate  over  the  period  from  2009  to  2013.1,2  The  majority  of  players  in  the  ecosystem— from  IPTV  receiver  platform  manufacturers  to  content  owners  and  aggregators—exceeded  sales  and   revenue  targets  in  2010.  PwC  also  predicts  that  advertising  spend  for  online  video  will  reach  $3.5  billion   in  2012,  an  8.4%  compound  growth  annual  rate.3   The  health  of  the  ecosystem  faces  risks  from  content  owners  withdrawing  content  from  aggregators,   restricting  consumer  access  to  direct  distribution  channels.  In  the  absence  of  rich  premium  content   available  through  aggregators  such  as  Hulu  and  Netflix,  the  consumer  value  proposition  would  be   greatly  reduced,  significantly  hindering  the  further  development  of  the  ecosystem.   Several  game  changers  are  set  to  dramatically  alter  the  environment  of  the  IPTV  ecosystem:   • AllVid  could  significantly  increase  consumer  access  to  IPTV  content:  The  Federal   Communications  Commission  is  pushing  the  home  entertainment  industry  to  adopt  AllVid,  a   proposed  technology  that  aims  to  provide  consumers  with  a  universal  interface  to  paid  video   content.  In  theory,  this  technology  would  enable  IPTV  content  to  be  seamlessly  distributed   throughout  a  home  without  the  aid  of  set-­‐top  boxes,  greatly  increasing  the  accessibility  of  IPTV   services.  As  such,  IPTV  content  would  be  placed  on  a  level  playing  field  with  cable  and  satellite   content,  greatly  increasing  IPTV’s  share  of  subscriber  and  advertising  revenues.  Furthermore,   AllVid  could  place  significant  pressure  upon  the  current  bundled  pricing  model  for  subscription   television,  leading  a  shift  towards  a  la  carte  pricing.   • Rollout  of  4G  networks  will  enable  wireless  IPTV  content  delivery:  Unlike  3G  networks,  4G   networks  provide  sufficient  bandwidth  for  IPTV  transmission,  resulting  in  increased  penetration   of  IPTV  services  to  mobile  devices  and  rural  markets.  Further  shifts  balance  of  power  from  cable   and  satellite  operators  to  wireless  providers,  with  increases  in  market  share  due  to  lower   deployment  costs.   • Dynamic  ad  placements  will  bring  targeted  advertising  to  television:  Integrating  viewing  data   with  online  behavior  and  transaction  history,  dynamic  ad  placement  allows  IPTV  providers  to   build  far  more  robust  user  profiles,  providing  advertisers  with  a  significantly  greater  value   proposition  than  that  offered  by  cable  and  satellite  providers.                                                                                                                 1  “Global  entertainment  and  media  outlook  2009  –2013”,  PwC,  Jun  2009,  p  182   2  Viviek  Naik,  “U.S.  IPTV  to  hit  $15  Billion  in  Revenues  by  2013,  Study  Says”,  TMCNet,  Sep  2  2009,   http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/63554-­‐us-­‐iptv-­‐hit-­‐15-­‐billion-­‐revenues-­‐2013-­‐study.htm,  accessed  Mar  5  2011   3  Ibid.  
  • 4.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  3       OVERVIEW  OF  IPTV  WITHIN  THE  US  MARKET   IPTV  Reducing  Barriers  To  Entry  For  Video  Distribution   Internet  Protocol  Television  (IPTV)  is  a  system  for  delivering  video  that  leverages  the  networks  and   protocols  of  the  internet,  replacing  traditional  broadcasting  technologies.  IPTV  is  a  rapidly  growing   market.  According  to  Strategy  Analytics,  a  market  research  firm,  revenue  from  the  US  IPTV  ecosystem   will  reach  ~$15  billion  by  2013.4  PricewaterhouseCoopers  (PwC),  a  consultancy,  estimates  that  17  million   households  in  the  US  will  subscribe  to  IPTV  services  by  2013,  representing  ~50%  compound  annual   growth  over  the  period  from  2009  to  2013.5   Broadly  speaking,  IPTV  dramatically  reduces  the  barriers  to  entry  for  video  distribution.     Broadcast  television,  the  first  technology  that  enabled  widespread  transmission  of  video,  requires  costly   licenses  for  access  to  spectrum,  a  finite  resource,  limiting  video  distribution  to  well-­‐capitalized  entities.   Cable  television,  the  next  evolution  in  video  distribution,  brought  significantly  greater  capacity,  enabling   consumers  to  access  hundreds  of  channels  through  a  single  wire.  As  wiring  a  household  for  cable   required  significant  investment,  cities  created  natural  monopolies  by  awarding  exclusive  franchises  to   cable  companies,  giving  these  firms  significant  market  power.     Unlike  broadcast  and  cable,  IPTV  provides  a  relatively  open  platform  for  video  distribution.  Services  such   as  YouTube  and  Vimeo  enable  content  creators  to  reach  a  global  audience  with  negligible  upfront   investment.  There  are  two  key  properties  of  IPTV  that  enable  this  openness:   • Packet-­‐switching:  With  broadcast  and  analog  cable,  all  channels  are  continuously  piped  through   the  transmission  medium,  regardless  of  whether  any  receiver  is  using  that  signal.  IPTV  uses  the   infrastructure  underlying  the  internet  for  video  transmission.  Instead  of  continuous   transmission,  with  IPTV,  a  video  stream  is  broken  into  discrete  packets  that  are  reassembled  by   the  receiver.  This  provides  a  fertile  platform  for  video-­‐on-­‐demand,  as  a  receiver’s  bandwidth   remains  open  until  a  video  stream  is  requested.   • Network  neutrality:  The  Federal  Communications  Commission  (FCC),  the  main   telecommunications  regulatory  body  in  the  United  States,  ruled  in  late  2010  that  internet   service  providers  (ISPs)  can  not  discriminate  between  their  own  services  and  those  provided  by   third-­‐parties.6  In  recent  years,  tensions  have  escalated  between  ISPs  and  online  video   distributors,  such  as  Netflix,  over  high-­‐bandwidth  use.  Prior  to  the  FCC’s  ruling,  Comcast,  the   largest  cable  company  in  the  United  States,  had  demanded  that  Netflix’s  content  delivery   provider,  Level  3  Communications,  pay  Comcast  as  compensation  for  handling  Netflix’s  incoming   traffic  to  Comcast  subscribers.7  By  upholding  network  neutrality,  the  FCC  maintains  the  status   quo  whereby  consumers  can  access  any  video  distributor  through  the  connection  provided  by   their  ISP.  This  is  a  significant  departure  from  the  business  models  of  cable  and  broadcast                                                                                                               4  Viviek  Naik,  “U.S.  IPTV  to  hit  $15  Billion  in  Revenues  by  2013,  Study  Says”,  TMCNet,  Sep  2  2009,   http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/63554-­‐us-­‐iptv-­‐hit-­‐15-­‐billion-­‐revenues-­‐2013-­‐study.htm,  accessed  Mar  5  2011   5  “Global  entertainment  and  media  outlook  2009  –2013”,  PwC,  Jun  2009,  p  182   6  Jeffry  Bartash,  “FCC  approves  new  rules  governing  Internet”,  Marketwatch,  Dec  21  2010,  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fcc-­‐backs-­‐new-­‐ rules-­‐governing-­‐internet-­‐2010-­‐12-­‐21,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   7  Jeffry  Bartash,  “Comcast  in  dispute  over  Netflix  downloads”,  Marketwatch,  Nov  30  2010,  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/comcast-­‐in-­‐ dispute-­‐over-­‐netflix-­‐downloads-­‐2010-­‐11-­‐30,  accessed  Mar  6  2011  
  • 5.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  4       television,  as  these  structures  historically  provided  telecommunications  firms  with  near  total   control  over  the  video  content  that  subscribers  could  receive  through  their  services.   Online  Content  Aggregators  Emerging  As  Disruptor   The  openness  enabled  by  IPTV  platforms  has  resulted  in  two  distinct  business  models  within  the  US   market:   • IPTV  as  a  product-­‐line  extension  for  telecommunications  firms:  Prior  to  IPTV,   telecommunications  firms  lacked  the  capability  to  directly  offer  video  services  to  their   subscribers.  In  contrast,  cable  companies’  infrastructure  provided  sufficient  bandwidth  to  offer   voice,  data,  and  video  through  a  single  connection.  AT&T,  a  leading  US  provider  of  traditional   phone  and  DSL  data  services,  launched  an  ambitious  network  upgrade  in  2006  to  increase  the   capacity  of  its  infrastructure  to  support  an  IPTV  service  branded  as  “U-­‐verse”.8  Executives  at   AT&T  have  stated  that  these  upgrades  require  a  “couple  billion”  in  capital  expenditures  each   year.  9  Services  such  as  U-­‐verse  compete  directly  with  traditional  video  services  from  cable  and   satellite  firms.  Ongoing  subscriptions  for  access  to  a  basket  of  channels  are  the  primary  source   of  revenue.   • Online  content  aggregators:  Services  such  as  Netflix,  Amazon  Instant  Video,  iTunes,  Hulu,  and   YouTube  provide  consumers  with  a  library  of  video  content,  accessible  through  a  high-­‐speed   internet  connection  across  multiple  platforms,  such  as  personal  computers,  mobile  devices,  and   televisions.  This  category  can  be  further  segmented  into  aggregators  that  focus  on  professional   content,  such  as  Netflix  and  Hulu,  and  those  that  focus  on  amateur  content,  such  as  YouTube   and  Vimeo.     These  online  content  aggregators  are  disrupting  the  business  model  of  the  traditional  subscription  video   services  offered  by  telecommunications,  cable,  and  satellite  companies,  unleashing  significant   whitespace  for  opportunistic  firms  to  capitalize  on  opportunities  within  the  IPTV  ecosystem.  As  such,  the   remainder  of  this  report  will  focus  on  IPTV  as  delivered  through  online  content  aggregators.                                                                                                               8  Peter  Grant,  “Business  Technology:  AT&T  Raises  TV  Stakes  With  Bigger  HD  Lineup;  Aiming  to  Trump  Cable,  Service  Adds  27  Channels;  Big  Test   of  Internet  Tools”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Dec  19  2006,  via  ProQuest,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   9  Niraj  Sheth,  “AT&T  Rethinks  U-­‐Verse  Spending  After  FCC  Move”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Jun  15  2010,  via  ProQuest,  accessed  Mar  6  2011  
  • 6.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  5       THE  IPTV  ECOSYSTEM   Relatively  Fragmented,  Leading  To  Multiple  Layers  Of  Intermediaries     Figure  1  –  Map  of  IPTV  Ecosystem   IPTV%Ecosystem:%RelaAvely%Fragmented,%Leading%to%MulAple%Layers%of%Intermediaries% Legend%(note:%size%of%arrows%represents%magnitude%of%flows)%% ILLUSTRATIVE% Financial+Flow+ Content+Flow+ AdverAsing%Networks% B2B%TransacAons% Content%Owners%/% Content%Aggregators% Content+Delivery+ Publishers% Networks+ Financial%Intermediaries% C2B%TransacAons% Internet+Service+ IPTV%Receiver%Pla.orms% Providers+ Electronics+Retailers+ Consumers% Sources:+Team+analysis;+logos+reproduced+under+Fair+Use+excepCon+(17+U.S.C.+§+107)+for+nonLprofit+educaConal+purposes;+icons+obtained+from+iconarchive.com;+tv+image+obtained+from+sxc.hu+(royaltyLfree)+ Note:  A  larger  version  of  this  map  has  been  reproduced  in  the  Appendix  as  “Exhibit  1  –  Map  of  IPTV  Ecosystem  (Landscape   Orientation)”     Publishers  Originate  Professionally  Sourced  Video  Content   The  path  from  content  owners  and  publishers  to  the  end  consumer  crosses  multiple  boundaries  in  the   IPTV  ecosystem.  Media  companies,  such  as  ABC,  FOX,  and  NBC,  originate  the  flow  of  professionally   sourced  content.  Most  publishers  then  push  their  content  to  aggregators,  while  some  also  offer   consumers  direct  access  through  their  website.  For  those  publishers  that  offer  direct  access,  viewing  is   restricted  to  personal  computers.   Aggregators  Provide  Content  Owners  With  Secure  Distribution  And  Shared  Revenue     In  contrast,  aggregators  provide  consumers  the  ability  to  view  content  across  a  wider  variety  of   receivers,  such  as  smartphones,  dedicated  IPTV  set-­‐top  boxes,  and  newer  high-­‐end  televisions.  Content   owners  are  the  main  driver  behind  the  success  of  aggregators.  For  example,  Hulu,  one  of  the  most  
  • 7.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  6       successful  content  aggregators,  is  jointly  owned  by  Disney  (parent  of  ABC),  NBC,  and  FOX.10  Jeff  Zucker,   CEO  of  NBC  Universal,  explained  in  an  interview  with  The  Wall  Street  Journal  that  Hulu  came  about  as  a   way  to  “train  people  to  legally  view  [content]  online”.11  As  broadband  providers  increased  the  speed  of   their  offerings,  video  content  owners  feared  that  consumers  would  turn  towards  unauthorized   distribution  channels,  a  trend  that  had  cannibalized  much  of  the  revenue  within  the  music  industry.   Aggregators  offer  content  owners  with  a  secure  distribution  platform  and  established  business  model   for  monetizing  content.   Three  primary  business  models  have  emerged  from  online  aggregators:  pay-­‐per  download,  subscription,   and  advertising  –  along  with  a  “freemium”  model  that  blends  elements  of  the  latter  two  business   models.   The  iTunes  Store  is  the  most  recognizable  operator  of  the  pay-­‐per  download  model.  Consumers  must   pay  a  set  price  for  each  program  they  choose  to  view.   Netflix  is  an  example  of  a  subscription-­‐based  model.  In  exchange  for  a  monthly  fee,  consumers  are   provided  unlimited  access  to  a  library  of  content.   YouTube  uses  an  advertising  supported  model,  leveraging  Google’s  strength  in  text  ads  as  an  extension   into  video.  In  an  interview  with  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  an  executive  with  Neo@Ogilvy,  a  digital  ad   agency,  explained  that  some  advertisers  are  not  comfortable  with  running  ads  alongside  user-­‐generated   content.  This  has  complicated  Google’s  efforts  to  increase  YouTube’s  revenue,  resulting  in  continued   operating  losses.  12   Hulu  is  an  example  of  the  freemium  model.  The  company  offers  consumers  free  access  to  select  video   content  on  personal  computers.  For  a  monthly  fee,  consumers  can  upgrade  to  Hulu  Plus,  which  offers  a   wider  variety  of  content  across  multiple  viewing  platforms.   IPTV  Receiver  Platforms  Set  To  Emerge  Into  Mainstream   In  2010,  internet-­‐connected  televisions  emerged,  bringing  online  content  aggregators  directly  into  the   living  room.  One  of  the  most  visible  illustrations  of  this  trend  is  Google’s  launch  of  Google  TV,  an  IPTV   receiver  platform  based  on  the  Android  operating  system.  Through  a  partnership  with  Sony,  Google’s   software  has  been  embedded  within  select  television  models.13  Google  has  also  licensed  its  software  to   manufacturers  of  set-­‐top  boxes,  such  as  Logitech.  Through  these  deals,  Google  aims  to  enable   consumers  to  watch  video  from  any  website  directly  through  their  television,  providing  direct  access  to   content  owners.  The  business  model  for  Google  TV  is  similar  to  that  of  Android:  the  Google  TV  platform   is  available  to  device  manufacturers  without  charge  from  Google,  and  in  return,  Google  can  reach   consumers  in  the  living  room  with  advertisements.  Although  some  content  owners  have  been   supportive-­‐notably  Time  Warner,  owner  of  HBO-­‐have  reacted  negatively.  ABC,  NBC,  CBS,  and  Hulu  are   among  the  services  that  block  Google  TV  devices  from  viewing  video  content.14  By  creating  a  keystone                                                                                                               10  Paul  Thomasch,  “UPDATE  3-­‐Disney  joins  Hulu  video  site,  takes  ownership  stake”,  Reuters,  Apr  30  2009,   http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/04/30/afx6364646.html,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   11  Peter  Kafka,  “NBC  CEO  Jeff  Zucker:  Hulu  Will  Start  Breaking  Even  “Soon””,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  May  28  2009,   http://d7.allthingsd.com/20090528/d7-­‐interview-­‐nbc-­‐universal-­‐ceo-­‐jeff-­‐zucker/,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   12  Kevin  J.  Delaney,  “Google  Push  To  Sell  Ads  On  YouTube  Hits  Snags  -­‐-­‐-­‐  Video  Site  Is  Key  To  Diversification;  The  Lawsuit  Factor”,  The  Wall  Street   Journal,  Jul  9  2008,  via  Factiva,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   13  Don  Clark,  “Google  Unveils  Software  to  Join  TV,  Web”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  May  21  2010,  via  ProQuest,  accessed  Mar  6  2011   14  Sam  Schechner,  Amir  Efrati,  “Networks,  Google  Spar  Over  Web  TV”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Oct  22  2010,  via  ProQuest,  accessed  Mar  6  2011  
  • 8.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  7       platform,  the  success  of  Google  TV  could  ultimately  supplant  more  established  players  such  as  Hulu  and   its  primary  owners:  ABC,  NBC,  and  FOX.   Other  companies  offering  IPTV  receiver  platforms  include  Apple  (Apple  TV),  Roku,  Microsoft  (Xbox  360   Mediaroom),  and  Cisco  (Videoscape).  While  these  platforms  are  increasing  availability  of  IPTV  in  the   living  room,  it  is  unlikely  that  cable  set-­‐top  boxes,  the  most  common  add-­‐on  device,  will  support  content   aggregators.  Content  aggregators  provide  an  alternative  source  for  video  content  distinct  from  the   traditional  subscription  model  offered  by  cable  companies.  Therefore,  for  a  cable  set-­‐top  box  to  support   a  service  such  as  Netflix  or  Hulu  would  diminish  the  value  of  the  cable  operator’s  core  video  offerings.   Nevertheless,  the  continued  proliferation  of  IPTV  receiver  platforms  into  televisions  and  other  devices   will  increase  the  reach  of  content  aggregators  into  the  living  room.   IPTV  Receiver  Platforms  Moving  Into  Financial  Intermediation   Device  manufacturers  are  primarily  limited  to  one-­‐off  revenue  from  a  consumer’s  initial  purchase  of  that   item.  In  contrast,  consumer  payments  to  publishers  and  aggregators  for  content  represent  an  on-­‐going   revenue  stream.  Developers  of  IPTV  receiver  platforms  have  begun  to  recognize  this  opportunity  by   integrating  the  capability  to  purchase  content  directly  from  their  platform.   Apple’s  iTunes  Store  is  an  example  of  dominator  strategy  that  seeks  to  maximize  Apple’s  share  of  the   overall  ecosystem.  In  February  2011,  Apple  announced  that  companies  who  sell  digital  content  for   applications  on  iOS  devices  must  use  Apple’s  in-­‐app  payment  mechanism  to  process  transactions.  In   exchange  for  30%  of  the  revenue  from  each  transaction,  Apple  would  provide  publishers  with  seamless   integration  into  iOS  devices.  Although  Apple  has  yet  to  publically  state  whether  online  video   aggregators,  such  as  Hulu  and  Netflix,  would  be  subject  to  the  new  rule,  other  aggregators  such  as   Rhapsody,  a  music  subscription  service,  have  stated  that  Apple’s  stance  is  “economically  untenable”.15   Apple,  as  an  existing  market  leader  in  Content  Aggregation  /  Financial  Intermediation  (iTunes  Music   Store),  Electronics  Retailers  (Apple  Store),  and  IPTV  Receiver  Platform  (iOS,  Apple  TV),  is  using  its  strong   market  position  to  capture  a  highly  attractive  space  within  the  IPTV  ecosystem.                                                                                                               15  Yukari  Iwatani  Kane,  Russell  Adams.  “Apple  Opens  a  Door,  Keeps  Keys”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Feb  16  ‘11,  via  ProQuest,  accessed  Mar  6  ‘11  
  • 9.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  8       ECOSYSTEM  HEALTH  ASSESSMENT   The  health  of  the  ecosystem  will  be  evaluated  based  on  three  “critical  measures  of  health”:  productivity,   robustness,  and  niche  creation.16   High  Productivity,  Driven  By  Increasing  Consumer  Demand  and  Advertising  Revenue   The  primary  measure  of  productivity  of  an  ecosystem  is  the  ability  of  firms  within  that  ecosystem  to   generate  revenues.  For  the  evaluation  of  the  IPTV  ecosystem,  we  will  be  looking  at  value  and  cash   generation  through  three  primary  sources:  device  unit  sales,  subscriber/pay-­‐per-­‐view,  and  advertising.     Unit  sales  of  IPTV  receiver  platforms  have  been  growing  steadily  over  the  last  few  years.  In  2010,  Apple   and  Roku  both  announced  that  they  have  sold  one  million  units  of  the  Apple  TV  and  Roku  Player   respectively.17  Revenues  at  Roku  exceeded  $50  million  in  2010,  and  are  expected  to  reach  $100  million   in  2011.18  While  this  represents  just  a  small  proportion  of  the  US  television  market,  hitting  the  one-­‐ millionth  unit  sales  mark  was  still  a  significant  milestone.  Demand  for  such  IPTV  receiver  sets  delivering   niche,  non-­‐traditional  television  content  has  seen  an  uptick  in  recent  years.  While  it  took  Apple  four   years  to  hit  this  target  when  it  launched  the  Apple  TV  in  January  2007,  Roku  achieved  this  same  target  in   a  little  over  a  year.  19,20   Sales  of  other  non-­‐dedicated  IPTV  devices  have  seen  even  faster  growth.  Game  consoles  such  as  the   Xbox  360,  PlayStation  3,  and  Nintendo  Wii  all  have  capabilities  to  connect  via  Wi-­‐Fi  to  IPTV  content   aggregators  such  as  Netflix.  Since  its  launch,  the  Nintendo  Wii  has  generated  worldwide  sales  of  85   million  units  (33  million  in  the  US),  while  the  Xbox  360  and  PlayStation  3  has  sold  over  50  million  units   (19  million  in  the  US)  and  48  million  units  (12  million  in  the  US)  respectively.21,22,23  Furthermore,  many   consumer  electronic  goods  such  as  HD  television  sets  and  Blu-­‐ray  players  by  LG,  Samsung,  Sony,  and   Philips  come  standard  with  Wi-­‐Fi  connectivity,  providing  connectivity  to  IPTV  content  on  a  limited  basis.   In  late  2010,  Roku  announced  that  it  would  begin  licensing  its  platform  to  third-­‐party  hardware   manufacturers.24  In  a  move  seen  as  a  direct  challenge  to  the  much  delayed  Google  TV  platform,  this  is   predicted  to  greatly  increase  market  penetration  for  Roku,  and  allow  many  more  consumers  access  to   IPTV  content  available  only  through  the  Roku  Channel  Store.   On  the  content  subscription  front,  content  aggregator  Netflix  announced  revenue  increases  of  34%,  with   a  52%  surge  in  profits  during  their  forth  quarter  earnings  call.25  The  Wall  Street  Journal  reported  that   Netflix’s  “movie-­‐streaming  service  fueled  the  addition  of  3.1  million  subscribers  over  the  holidays”,                                                                                                               16  Marco  Iansiti,  Roy  Levien.  “Strategy  as  Ecology”,  Harvard  Business  Review.  Mar  2004,  p.  72     17  Tracey  Schelmetic,  “Apple  TV  and  Roku  to  Announce  Million-­‐Sales  Milestone;  Google  TV  Lags”,  TMCNet,   http://iptv.tmcnet.com/topics/iptv/articles/128696-­‐apple-­‐tv-­‐roku-­‐announce-­‐million-­‐sales-­‐milestones-­‐google.htm,  accessed  Mar  05  2011   18  Ibid.   19  Wolfgang  Gruener,  “Apple’s  History  Lesson:  The  iPhone  and  AppleTV”,  TGDaily,  http://www.tgdaily.com/mobility-­‐features/30712-­‐apples-­‐ history-­‐lesson-­‐the-­‐iphone-­‐and-­‐appletv,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   20  Press  Release,  “Roku  Launches  Open  Platform  for  Delivery  of  Content  to  the  TV”,   http://www.roku.com/Libraries/Press_Releases/Roku_Channel_Store_Release.sflb.ashx,  Nov  2009,  accessed  Mar  06  2011     21  Nintendo  Co.  Ltd.  Consolidated  Financial  Highlights,  http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2011/110127e.pdf,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   22  Tor  Thorsen,  “Xbox  Sells  50  million;  Kinect  ships  8  million”,  Gamespot,  http://ces.gamespot.com/story/6285921/xbox-­‐360-­‐sells-­‐50-­‐million-­‐ kinect-­‐8-­‐million,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   23  “PlayStation®3  Worldwide  Hardware  Unit  Sales  |  CORPORATE  INFORMATION|  Sony  Computer  Entertainment  Inc:”,   http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps3_sale_e.html,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   24  Mark  Hachman,  “Roku  Says  It  Will  License  Platform”,  PCMag,  http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2371611,00.asp,  accessed  Mar  06  ‘11   25  Nick  Wingfield,  “Netflix  Sees  Surge  in  Subscribers”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Jan  27  2011,  via  Factiva,  accessed  Mar  06  2011  
  • 10.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  9       bringing  its  total  subscriber  base  to  over  20  million.26  Other  IPTV  subscription  based  content  aggregators   are  also  slowly  gaining  traction.  One  Touch  Intelligence  recently  estimated  that  Hulu  Plus,  a  relatively   new  entrant  into  the  subscription-­‐based  IPTV  model,  has  achieved  4%  conversion  across  Hulu’s  total   user  base  of  30  million.27  Another  report  by  Screen  Digest  puts  Apple’s  iTunes  Store  at  the  forefront  of   on-­‐demand  video  sales  and  rentals,  noting  that  overall  sales  increased  60%  in  2010  compared  to  2009.28     Online  video  advertising  has  experienced  a  resurgence  in  recent  years  as  “rising  broadband  penetration   and  increased  broadband  speeds”  has  increased  the  market  for  streaming  video,  and  made  online  video   advertising  feasible.29  PwC  predicts  that  online  “video  advertising  spend  in  North  America  will  grow  at   an  8.4%  compound  annual  rate  to  $3.5  billion  in  2012  from  $2.4  billion  in  2008.”30  Several  factors  are   driving  this  trend.  Multiple  studies  show  that  more  and  more  consumers  are  watching  television   programs  on  the  web,  climbing  to  22%  in  2010  from  8%  in  2006.31  In  addition,  research  from  comScore   indicates  “people  who  watch  TV  shows  online  will  tolerate  about  twice  the  amount  of  ads  the  medium   now  averages”.32  All  these  factors  working  together  are  predicted  to  drive  online  video  advertising   revenues  for  both  content  owners/creators  and  aggregators  in  the  years  ahead.     Figure  2  –  North  America  Market  Size  for  Online  Video  Advertising  (ex  Mobile;  2004-­‐2013p)   Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market† (US$ millions) North America 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 United States 960 1,000 1,010 2,120 2,350 2,450 2,575 2,765 3,070 3,500 Canada NA NA NA 8 16 18 20 24 32 45 Total 960 1,000 1,010 2,128 2,366 2,468 2,595 2,789 3,102 3,545 †At average 2008 exchange rates. Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Wired Internet rich media/video advertising market growth (%) 2009–13 North America 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR United States 46.6 4.2 1.0 109.9 10.8 4.3 5.1 7.4 11.0 14.0 8.3 Canada — — — — 100.0 12.5 11.1 20.0 33.3 40.6 23.0 Total 46.6 4.2 1.0 110.7 11.2 4.3 5.1 7.5 11.2 14.3 8.4 Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Source:  “Global  entertainment  and  media  outlook  2009  –2013”,  PwC,  Jun  2009   We expect declines in display and classified to offset Including e-mail, sponsorships, lead generation, and Robustness  Highly  Dependent  Upon  Cthat gains in search and video in 2009, with the result other categories, wired online advertising for the overall overall wired Internet advertising will decrease. ooperation  From  Content  Owners   percent compound forecast period will advance at a 5.8 annual rate to $32.9 billion in 2013 from $24.8 billion in Robustness  oa 3.9 ecosystem  may  2009, easured  several  w2008.One  method  is  to  analyze  the  antensity  of   We expect f  an  percent decline in be  mwith the US falling by 4 percent and Canada by 3.5 percent. ays.   The United States will increase at i 5.7 percent rate compounded annually to $30.9 billion, and Canada partnerships  w Spending will ithin  the  e2010 as gains ith  content  aggregators  as  a  measure  of  the  quality  of  content   edge up in cosystem  w in search and will grow by 7.7 percent on a compound annual basis video offset declines in display and classified. In both available  for  consumers.  Content  that  consumers  are  willing  tbillion. for  creates  value  that  can  be  divided   countries we expect mid-single-digit increases in 2011 to $2 o  pay   and double-digit growth in 2012–13. and  shared  for  the  benefit  of  the  entire  ecosystem.      Wired    Internet  advertising                          (US$ millions)                                                                 market         † 26  Ibid.  America North 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27  Will  Richmond,  “Report:  Hulu  Plus  Starting  to  Get  Some  Traction”,  Seeking  Alpha,  http://seekingalpha.com/article/237232-­‐report-­‐hulu-­‐plus-­‐ United States 9,626 12,542 16,879 21,206 23,448 22,520 22,750 24,330 27,230 30,935 starting-­‐to-­‐get-­‐some-­‐traction,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   28  “Apple’s  iTunes  Store  Dominates  Online  DVD  Sales,  VOD”,  Studio  Briefing,  http://www.studiobriefing.net/2011/02/apples-­‐itunes-­‐store-­‐ 1,970 Canada 341 527 844 1,164 1,360 1,313 1,336 1,407 1,641 dominates-­‐online-­‐dvd-­‐sales-­‐vod/,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   17,723 Total 9,967 13,069 22,370 24,808 23,833 24,086 25,737 28,871 32,905 29  “Global  entertainment  and  media  outlook  2009  –2013”,  PwC,  Jun  2009,  p.  155   †At average 2008 exchange rates. 30  Ibid.   Sources: Interactive Advertising Bureau, Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, Wilkofsky Gruen Associates 31  Wayne  Friedman,  “TV  Trends:  More  Internet  TV  Viewers  Erode  Trad  Media”,  MediaDailyNews,   http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=124522,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   32  “Online  TV  Viewers  will  Tolerate  Twice  As  Many  Ads”,  Television  Broadcast,  http://www.televisionbroadcast.com/article/106518,  accessed   Mar  06  2011  
  • 11.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  10       Firms  in  the  IPTV  receiver  platform  niche  such  as  Roku  have  been  actively  seeking  new  channels  and   content  for  inclusion  into  their  channel  lineup.  With  over  100  channels  to  choose  from,  both  free  and   subscription  based,  Roku  is  a  leader  as  a  provider  of  non-­‐traditional  television  content.  Roku  provides  a   broadcast  platform  for  niche  and  international  channels  to  deliver  their  content,  often  with  too  narrow   of  a  focus  to  appeal  to  traditional  cable  and  satellite  television  broadcasters.   Content  aggregators  such  as  Netflix  and  Hulu  are  also  adding  partners  to  continuously  boost  their   content  library.  Hulu,  as  a  joint  venture  of  Disney,  Fox,  and  NBC,  has  access  to  a  rich  library  of  content  to   draw  upon  from  its  equity  partners.  Most  notably  absent  from  the  Hulu  lineup  is  CBS  and  Warner   Brother’s  CW  network.  However,  what  has  been  regarded  as  Hulu’s  loss  is  Netflix’s  gain.  Netflix  recently   signed  a  deal  with  CBS  to  begin  distributing  CBS’s  content  to  its  subscribers.33   The  licensing  of  the  Roku  platform  and  Google  TV  platform  to  third-­‐party  hardware  manufacturers   indicates  the  beginnings  of  a  convergence  between  standard  home-­‐theater  equipment,  such  as  HDTVs   and  Blu-­‐ray  players,  with  IPTV  hardware.  Until  recently,  IPTV  receivers  have  been  considered  a  niche   supplemental  device.  As  these  platforms  become  standard  equipment  in  consumer  electronic  goods,   they  become  more  accessible  to  the  mass  consumer,  increasing  the  robustness  of  the  ecosystem.   However,  the  continued  robustness  of  the  IPTV  ecosystem  hinges  on  content  owners  continuing  to   provide  aggregators  with  quality  content.  A  large  draw  for  consumers  towards  IPTV  today  is  the  result  of   the  rich  content  available  through  aggregators  such  as  Hulu  and  Netflix.  If  content  owners  shift  towards   a  dominator  strategy  by  withdrawing  content  from  aggregators  and  limiting  consumer  access  to  direct   distribution  channels,  a  reduced  consumer  value  proposition  could  lead  to  the  failure  of  the  ecosystem.     Niches  Emerging  In  Amateur  Content,  Gaming   The  growth  of  IPTV  has  spun  off  a  flurry  of  niche  creation  in  the  ecosystem.  Television  content   production  in  the  past  was  limited  to  large  studios  with  big  budgets,  and  supported  by  heavy  subscriber   fees  and  advertising  revenue.  With  IPTV,  independent  producers,  some  with  just  a  cell  phone  camera,   can  create  content  and  deliver  it  to  millions  of  viewers  through  content  aggregators  such  as  YouTube   and  Vimeo.  While  advertisers  have  hesitated  to  fully  embrace  amateur  content,  Google’s  acquisition  of   YouTube  illustrates  the  potential  for  monetizing  independent  and  amateur  video.   Gaming  through  IPTV  receiver  platforms  may  be  the  next  emerging  market  opportunity,  and  already,   this  is  generating  niche  creation  within  the  space.  With  the  integration  of  the  iPad  and  Apple  TV,  several   app  creators  have  designed  multiplayer  games  that  utilize  the  iPad  as  a  game  controller,  with  graphics   projected  onto  a  television  display  through  the  Apple  TV  set-­‐top  box.  Furthermore,  rumors  in  the   blogosphere  hint  that  “new  code  in  the  iOS  4.3  beta  3  firmware  may  soon  support  online  gaming”.34   Roku  also  currently  offers  several  basic  games  through  its  Roku  Channel  Store.  As  the  market  for  gaming   emerges  within  the  IPTV  ecosystem,  niche  creation  is  sure  to  follow  as  entrepreneurs  seek  to  capture   value  from  this  market  segment.                                                                                                                 33  “CBS  and  Netflix  announce  2-­‐year  Licensing  Agreement  for  Library  Content”,  Daily  News,  http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_17453787,   accessed  Mar  06  2011   34  Ross  Miller,  “Apple  TV  Gaming  Hinted  Strongly  in  iOS  4.3  beta  code”,  Engadget,  http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/09/apple-­‐tv-­‐gaming-­‐ hinted-­‐strongly-­‐in-­‐ios-­‐4-­‐3-­‐beta-­‐code/,  accessed  Mar  06  2011  
  • 12.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  11       Overall,  Ecosystem  Healthy  With  Strong  Growth  Prospects   As  the  ecology  of  IPTV  evolves,  forward-­‐looking  statements  of  revenues  generated  by  the  ecosystem   seem  healthy;  robustness  of  the  ecosystem  is  strong,  but  not  without  the  absence  of  risks  that  could   destroy  the  ecosystem;  and  niche  creation  continues  to  advance  in  this  relatively  young  ecosystem.  All   this  points  to  a  cautiously  healthy  ecosystem.  Allowed  to  develop  fairly  and  unrestrictedly,  IPTV  is   expected  to  radically  alter  the  market  for  consumer  television.  
  • 13.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  12       GAME  CHANGERS   AllVid  Could  Dramatically  Increase  Consumer  Access  To  IPTV  Content   AllVid  is  an  IP  gateway  adaptor  proposed  by  the  Federal  Communications  Commission  (FCC)  as  a   replacement  for  the  failed  CableCARD  initiative.35  In  its  current  form,  the  AllVid  requirement  will   “require  U.S.  cable,  satellite  and  telecommunication  TV  operators  to  supply  all  their  customers  a  device   or  gateway  –  capable  of  delivering  as  many  as  six  different  IP  video  streams  to  TVs,  DVRs  or  other   equipment  in  the  home  –  beginning  no  later  than  the  end  of  2012.”36   The  implementation  of  AllVid  will  significantly  impact  the  IPTV  ecosystem,  as  it  places  IPTV  content  on   an  equal  playing  field  as  traditional  cable  television  content.  Viewers  will  be  able  to  search  for  content   across  the  entire  spectrum  of  IPTV  niche  channels,  as  well  as  traditional  channels  offered  by  cable,   satellite,  and  telecommunications  providers.  The  effect  of  this  is  two  fold.   First,  niche,  independent,  or  amateur  content  currently  only  available  on  an  IPTV  receiver  platform  such   as  Roku,  can  directly  compete  for  viewers,  subscribership,  and  advertising  dollars  against  the  much   larger  broadcast  and  cable  channels.  This  will  lead  to  an  expansion  of  such  niche  channels,  and  possible   migration  of  some  smaller  channels  from  a  broadcast  to  an  IP  platform.   Secondly,  content  owners  will  view  aggregators  like  Hulu  as  a  substitute  to  their  broadcast  channels,   causing  tension  in  the  relationship  between  the  content  owners  and  aggregators.  Furthermore,   fragmentation  of  the  channel  lineups  of  cable  and  satellite  operators  may  occur,  as  more  and  more   niche  channels  migrate  towards  the  IP  platform,  in  an  attempt  to  capture  value  through  direct   subscription.  As  a  result,  the  traditional  bundled  pricing  models  of  the  incumbent  cable  and  satellite   broadcasters  could  shift  towards  a  la  carte  pricing,  ending  the  current  common  industry  practice  of   cross-­‐subsidizing  channels  within  a  content  owner’s  portfolio.   Rollout  Of  4G  Networks  Enables  Wireless  IPTV  Content  Delivery   4G,  the  forth  generation  cellular  wireless  standard,  promises  to  deliver  download  speeds  of  up  to  100   Mbps  over  a  wireless  cellular  network.37  This  will  enable  mobile  users  to  stream  multiple  channels  of  HD   video  content  on  their  mobile  devices,  and  more  importantly,  allow  users  to  unplug  from  fixed-­‐line   broadband  connections.   The  biggest  limiting  factor  for  IPTV  growth  today  is  its  reliance  on  broadband  internet  connections.   While  broadband  penetration  in  the  US  reached  94.5%  in  2009,  broadband  speeds  still  lag  against  the   EU,  with  US  connections  averaging  9.54  Mbps.38,39  4G  connectivity,  without  the  need  to  improve  any   physical  wired  infrastructure,  while  providing  uninterrupted  mobile  coverage,  is  projected  to  solve  these   issues  and  impact  the  IPTV  ecosystem  in  several  ways.                                                                                                               35  Clint  Boulton,  “Google  Touts  AllVid  to  FCC  for  Google  TV”,  eWeek,  http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Web-­‐Services-­‐Web-­‐20-­‐and-­‐SOA/Google-­‐ Touts-­‐AllVid-­‐to-­‐FCC-­‐for-­‐Google-­‐TV-­‐743680/,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   36  Todd  Spangler,  “FCC  AllVid  Rule  Would  Ban  The  Set-­‐Top  As  We  Know  It”,  MultiChannel  News,  http://www.multichannel.com/article/451984-­‐ FCC_AllVid_Rule_Would_Ban_The_Set_Top_As_We_Know_It_Analyst.php,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   37  “ITU  global  standard  for  international  mobile  telecommunications”,  http://www.itu.int/ITU-­‐R/index.asp,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   38  “Study:  Americans  Lead  World  in  Broadband  Use  -­‐  US  Broadband  Penetration  Jumps  to  94.5%  -­‐  December  2009  Bandwidth  Report”,     http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0912/,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   39  Tim  Conneally,  “US  Broadband  Speeds  Improve  in  2010,  Still  Second  Rate  Against  EU”,  Betanews,  http://www.betanews.com/article/US-­‐ broadband-­‐speeds-­‐improved-­‐in-­‐2010-­‐still-­‐second-­‐rate-­‐against-­‐EU/1297805705,  accessed  Mar  06  2011  
  • 14.  IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  13       First,  IPTV  receiver  platforms  will  integrate  support  for  embedded  wireless  chips  to  tap  into  4G  wireless   networks.  Wireless  chipmakers  such  as  Qualcomm  will  realize  an  uptick  in  demand  as  the  “internet  of   things”  concept  takes  hold  in  IPTV  consumer  electronic  products.  Furthermore,  fixed-­‐line  broadband   providers,  such  as  Comcast  and  Time  Warner,  will  face  renewed  competition  from  wireless  broadband   providers,  such  as  AT&T  and  T-­‐Mobile.   Second,  4G  connectivity  will  enable  real-­‐time  interactivity  with  video  content,  and  new  niches  will  form   within  the  ecosystem  to  develop  interactive  content  and  ways  of  monetizing  such  activity.  Content   owners  and  producers  must  rethink  how  they  produce  television  content,  and  how  best  to  leverage  this   interactivity  for  maximum  profit  generation.  In  addition,  the  shift  toward  4G  will  reduce  bandwidth  unit   costs  for  operators,  whose  savings  can  then  be  passed  on  to  consumers.  Broadband  penetration  in  rural   areas  still  lags  that  of  urban  areas,  in  large  part  due  to  the  lower  potential  return  on  investment  fixed-­‐ line  operators  face  in  rural  communities.  MatrixStream,  a  start-­‐up  within  the  IPTV  ecosystem,  believes   that  mobile  operators  could  deploy  IPTV  networks  over  4G  networks  at  just  20%  of  the  cost  for  a  similar   deployment  over  a  fixed-­‐line  network.40   Dynamic  Ad  Placement  Brings  Targeted  Advertising  To  Television   Cable  and  satellite  companies  are  experimenting  with  technologies  that  allow  them  to  provide  highly   targeted  ads  to  individual  households,  based  on  that  household’s  viewing  behavior  and  other  personal   and  demographic  data.41   The  concept  of  dynamic  ad  placement  is  not  new.  Internet  users  have  been  exposed  to  online  ads  that   aggregate  user  information  from  a  variety  sources  to  deliver  targeted  messaging.  With  dynamic  ad   placement  on  cable  and  satellite,  data  mining  companies  can  combine  viewing  data  with  frequent   shopper  cards  for  a  specific  address,  and  “turn  up  surprising  associations  such  as:  “Jersey  Shore”  viewers   are  frequent  buyers  of  yogurt.”42  The  fundamental  limitation  that  cable  and  satellite  companies  face  is   that  the  data  collected  is  aggregated  by  household,  meaning  that  a  teenager’s  constant  viewing  of  the   MTV  channel,  and  her  parent’s  shopping  behavior  may  combine  to  result  in  ads  being  shown  that  appeal   and  relate  to  neither.   With  IPTV,  and  especially  with  the  growth  in  IPTV  being  viewed  over  mobile  platforms,  user  data   collected  for  dynamic  ad  placement  can  be  far  more  individualized  than  what  traditional  cable  and   satellite  companies  can  obtain.  By  integrating  IPTV  viewing  data  with  online  behavior  and  transaction   history,  IPTV  providers  are  positioned  to  build  far  more  robust  user  profiles,  providing  advertisers  with  a   significantly  greater  value  proposition  than  that  offered  by  cable  and  satellite  providers.                                                                                                               40  “New  4G  IPTV  Platform  Includes  3D,  1080p,  HD  and  7.1  Surround  Sound”,  http://www.worldtvpc.com/blog/4g-­‐iptv-­‐platform-­‐includes-­‐3d-­‐ 1080p-­‐hd-­‐71-­‐surround-­‐sound/,  accessed  Mar  06  2011   41  Jessica  Vascellaro,  “TV’s  Next  Wave:  Tuning  Into  You”,  The  Wall  Street  Journal,  Mar  07  2011     42  Ibid.  
  • 15.     IPTV%Ecosystem:%RelaAvely%Fragmented,%Leading%to%MulAple%Layers%of%Intermediaries% Legend%(note:%size%of%arrows%represents%magnitude%of%flows)%% ILLUSTRATIVE% Financial+Flow+ Content+Flow+ AdverAsing%Networks% APPENDIX   Content%Owners%/% Content%Aggregators% Content+Delivery+ Publishers% Networks+ B2B%TransacAons% Financial%Intermediaries% Internet+Service+ IPTV%Receiver%Pla.orms% Providers+ Exhibit  1  –  Map  of  IPTV  Ecosystem  (Landscape  Orientation)   C2B%TransacAons% Electronics+Retailers+ Consumers% Sources:+Team+analysis;+logos+reproduced+under+Fair+Use+excepCon+(17+U.S.C.+§+107)+for+nonLprofit+educaConal+purposes;+icons+obtained+from+iconarchive.com;+tv+image+obtained+from+sxc.hu+(royaltyLfree)+    IPTV:  Disrupting  the  Balance  of  Power  in  the  US  Media  Industry  |  14