Brokerage 2007 keynote keith baker


Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Brokerage 2007 keynote keith baker

  1. 1. Overview of business models and market analysis of IP-TV Author: Keith Baker Division: Appied Technologies Eindhoven Date: May 2007
  2. 2. Overview Where and how can IP-TV get into the market? Who will pay for it? Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 2
  3. 3. Definition • ADSL : Common form of broadband • Non-Linear TV connection in retail, but asymmetric On-demand video services • BD : Blu-Ray Disc • Peering : Virtual zero costs access • BD-Live : Online BD media with to bandwidth for ISPs and other bulk MHP (java) interactivity users: e.g. BBC only pays 0.1 cents • Bittorrent : Social protocol on per MB/s per year internet used for video files transfer • P2P : File sharing network that uses • DOCIS : Cable Modem standard broadband internet • FTTH : Fibre To The Home • TV without Frontiers e.g. Nuenen Net Legal Framework for European • iMP : a broadband service the BBC broadcasting. gave demos of in 2006, but has • VDSL : Future DSL technology since run into problems. Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 3
  4. 4. IPTV definitions of Philips • IP-TV –Managed Network –Minimal Walled Garden –QOS, DRM and services –Most managed network are propriety technology • ISV Internet Video Services –Open internet protocols –Google Youtube, Pirate Bay,…… –Streaming, P2P progressive down-load, pod-cast Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 4
  5. 5. Media was (and still is) important • Media still has impact –Not 1930/1940 “War of Worlds” radio broadcast: nor the Nazi radio propaganda in WWII –Populations are hardened and very very cynical • Look at major industries such as Sport –Position of the monopoly is most important: • Sky and the English Football Monopoly • Plan used of DVB technology by News Corp • Political influence is still important at EU level –“TV without Frontiers” –Non-linear content : Battle EU v Nations State Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 5
  6. 6. What do people actually pay for: Football “War with 22 men and a ball” Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 6
  7. 7. Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 7
  8. 8. What Media do we pay for ? Wal*Mart = 1/3 Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 8
  9. 9. Content is Not King : Economics confused the Telcos 10000 1000 100 Cable TV 10 Internet $ 1 Phone 0.1 Dial-up Internet Mobile 0.01 SMS 0.001 0.0001 The Evolution of Price Discrimination in Transportation and its Implications Monthly cost Price $ per MB for the Internet. 2004 Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 9
  10. 10. EU-National Communication Authorities Interest in IP-TV Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 10
  11. 11. Television Roadblocks – 1. New media rights issues Power struggle Platforms ask aggregators to organise new media Aggregators see new rights and media as a platform independently act as Distributors by-pass and want aggregators in new Producers place want all media mobile, Internet and media space high value on new rights to protect other new media media rights their traditional rights. value chain. Internet On-demand Mobile Viewer Production content Distribution content Aggregation content Platforms content Producer/studio sales TV channels Cable/DTH IPTV Viewer currently Platforms and broadcasters denied anytime, Content owners juggle anywhere access Library content still hold market power Deal-or-no-deal economics needs new in most content negotiations contracts Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 11
  12. 12. Television Roadblocks – 4. Reluctance to license Unwillingness to damage existing TV LOG JAM! revenue streams holding back Licensing by new media exploitation technology/business DVD Dist. model is increasingly Stakeholders irrelevant expanding into Broadcasters DVD Dist. all areas of stakeholders value chain mobile mobile Internet Internet mobile Internet IPTV IPTV Internet Viewer Theatres DVD Dist. Cable/DTH Cable/DTH Broadcasters Production content content Cinema Video On-demand Pay TV Free TV €€ €€€€ € €€€ €€ Exhibition rental rental subscription Advertising New media windows generate retail retail PPV PPV lowest revenue subscription download Business models Similar expansion of Advertising All media rights for given business models time window seen as one PPV solution, but economic barriers currently too great T1> T2> T3> T4> T5> Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 12
  13. 13. Television Roadblocks – 3. Regulation of new media TV distribution New and ‘old’ media platforms New entrants to offered aggregated content on platform market different terms (eg. ‘must carry’) operate under more IPTV liberal telecoms regimes Internet On-demand Mobile Viewer Aggregation content Platforms content TV channels Cable/DTH Viewer protection in Traditional players subject to mobile and Internet broadcast, cable & satellite space and lack of level directives with relevant advertising playing-field content and advertising are concerns restrictions Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 13
  14. 14. Can’t Pay Won’t Pay for IPTV managed networks • What is the way forward • Who will pay? • Short-cut to the answer! • Not an Economic issue anymore: but a Social issue. Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 14
  15. 15. Social Issues • Openness to Media : Participation (Another slide) –Youtube –Blindness to “unlawful” use of Copyrighted media • Multi-Task –Multi-screened room • PVR and Advertising –Needs creativity and market influence • Viewing information –IPTV specific problem –Turn very nasty if distributors think they own customer information: see RFID! Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 15
  16. 16. Generation Gap : < 20 year old : broadband hit the families Couch Potatoes Net-aware and Live Open Cohort - Young < 20 years Gagetteers -$ >30 years Passives >20 years +$$$ Involved Limited Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 16 Passive
  17. 17. If IP-TV can’t make it alone then Team-up • Game platforms –XBOX360 –PS3 • PC : ISV Google and Yahoo –Maybe unavoidable • Disaggregation by Retailers : Wal*mart – E-Bay : Skype and Joost or Zattoo • Traditional Media : Hollywood – DVD download or BD-Live Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 17
  18. 18. Can’t Pay Won’t Pay for VOD : P2P • P2P network use Internet friendly protocols for the virtual zero cost distribution of large files. • Disputed P2P networks popular since 2004 –such as Bittorrent are already by over 600,000 users Europe to receive US HDTV content: e.g. 24, Battlestar- Galactica, Enterprise, Desperate Housewives. etc. • Bittorrent protocol in inherently scalable: –could be used any infinite number of users; provide they are social minded, and have internet bandwidth to share • P2P video streaming is effective for “Flash Crowds” –New canalizing trick for broadcasters –Hunt for the crowd not hang on the channel number Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 18
  19. 19. : P2P : Bittorrent Technology Capture and upload Download and burn : DIVX P2P Distribution Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 19
  20. 20. P2P Killer Broadband Applications Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 20
  21. 21. BBC iMP player : Mis-fired P2P network Based on Kontiki’s OMN Killed by Flag-ship Channel owners Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 21
  22. 22. Taming of P2P happening fast in 2006/7 • Bittorrent accepted by some Studios • E-bay Skype launch : The Venice Project • Fastweb Owner move to BabelGum • Many of the P2P technology vendors doing deals Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 22
  23. 23. Wal*Mart ? • Walton’s one of most influential families in the World –Influence the Clinton’s • Wal*Mart has power and influence –Changed the DVD content market in 2004 –Even Apple fears Wal*Mart for iTV product • Wal*Mart sent mail to Apple in Oct. after iTV • Where is the gain to Wal-Mart? –Loyalty lock on the customer: coupons e.g. Sam’s Club, own TV channel –Disaggregation of advertising costs –Cornering of traditional broadcast network to “Senior market” Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 23
  24. 24. BD Eco-system + IP-TV Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 24
  25. 25. Create a HDTV P2P Network for Wal-Mart Retailer Driven :Wal-Mart Invest more 4-6 Mb/s for faster download Peering Network Massive network bandwidth paid by retailers P2P Distribution Media Player Option Media PC Option Blu-Ray Option Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 25
  26. 26. IP-TV Future • If you can’t beat them join them : i.e. another network • There are many options? –EU Media Policy : Subsidy income for friendly pan European channel –Wal*mart : Disaggregation process • Loyality cards • Marketing information : Product • Focussed + Controlled advertising –E-Bay with Skype + Paypal : Micropayment –Zattoo : • But forget the simple Triple play to the customer Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 26
  27. 27. Vision of Future • Packaging of Content for Multi-Display Home Viewing • Move away from Linear content: Channels and EPG • Scenario : Maxima Report –From film Minority Report plus BD Technology : BD-Live MHP like for interactivity Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 27
  28. 28. Empathic Internet: a New “Soccer” monopoly An Empathic automotive product “Theory of Mind” Philips Applied Technologies, Keith Baker, <2005-07-22>, <DSE-050002I> 28