Increased Vulnerability To Nuclear Terrorist Actions 20july07
Hsis2005 Geospatial Nomadeyes Full
1. Applying Geospatial Representation and Forecasting Models for
Improving Chem-Bio-Rad Defense in Battlefield and Counterterrorism
Field Operations
Martin Dudziak, PhD
TETRAD Technologies Group, Inc.
June 21, 2005
2. Introduction - Objectives
• Smooth transition and integration of methods and systems for CBRNE in both
combat, post-combat, and civilian environments
• Integration of CBRNE prediction, forecasting, detection, countermeasures with
geospatial representation and analysis (more than GIS)
• Incorporation of several maturing technologies and familiar methodologies:
– Mobile, wireless, wearable, portable
– Platform-independence, “plug and play”
– Commercial, conventional, cheap, familiar, cast-away
– Inverse methods, nonlinear methods, hybrid probabilistic reasoning
• Adaptation of CBRNE and GIS to changing models of conflict, warfare and
military-civilian discipline/collaboration
• “Reusable and reconfigurable” is not only about cost-savings
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3. Introduction - Objections
• Too ambitious a goal and too many differences between CBRNE situations in the
combat field and homeland sectors - “apples and oranges”
• Too difficult to attempt assimilation of high-noise sources and low-sensitivity
sensors
• Consumer-grade technology not sufficiently specialized or robust
• Problem of false-positives, esp. in bio and rad domains
• Requires massive deployment and training - too expensive and too long
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4. Foundations
• Nomad Eyes architecture for open-ended deployment of sensor-analyzers
• Use of inverse methods (from wave scattering and subsurface imaging) with
Bayesian and RETE reasoning for analysis of distributed array data
• Focus on a few target problems and technical (sensing) solutions
– radiation sensors
– chemical (organo-phosphate) sensors
• Role of the GS and GIS is threefold:
– Locate sensor reports over time and provide correlation
– Locate both at-risk and risk-potential humans, machines, resources
– Predict likely targets and movements
• High-speed real-time database “ETL” and other VLDB processing is necessary
to keep track of changes in data collection and geospatial object movement
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5. Nomad Eyes - Mobile Wireless Portable/Handheld Nets
for an Asymmetric, Dynamic Countermeasure System
For Rad Terrorism but also for other
types and necessarily looking for all,
not only one
Mobile units using both cellular and
wireless internet/intranets
Freeform but adhering to industry
standards
Incorporating the General Public
Incorporating the commercial sector
(advertising and consumer products)
Asynchronous, Atypical, Asymmetric Sensor Fusion
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6. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (I)
Prevention by Detection of Terrakt Planning Operations
Movement of multiple types of components (CBRNE) or likely source/delivery
Time-matching and space-matching of logically connective, supportive events
“Sensor Fusion” of the Unordinary (Необычный) Kind -
e.g., tracer readings perhaps not individually remarkable
Photos of suspicious individuals and vehicles that have some “matches”
Exceptional shipping orders, out-of-sequence, special-route, handling
Parallel transit/shipment/transaction of non-contraband components useful
in an RDD
Goal toward Inverse Reasoning and Abductive Assimilation with other KBs / Xsys
Fall-Back Value: Emergency public alerts and First-Responder capabilities
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7. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (II)
EVENT !
Class (x) objects received by servers results
in generation of n graphs representing
hypothetical x y… relational maps; the
majority are discarded, but events of interest
trigger feedback to both autonomous and
human-based nodes for additional collection
and reorienting. No node or subset of nodes
is reliant and the whole may be considered as
a dynamic-geometry cellular automata.
EVENT !
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8. Nomad Eyes = Compound Eyes
Multiple TYPES of sensor data
Multiple INSTANCES at multiple TIMES
INVERSE Methods applied “as if” in surface/subsurface imaging:
the task is to find what events and processes may be the modifiers of
known or deducible behaviors
USING
•Abductive rules
•Bayesian probabilistic inference
•Fuzzy inference
•Heuristics and “common sense” rules
For all the value of sophisticated detectors, an “outlier” element or two could make all the difference:
Requests for building or water/sewer line plans Repeat-visits of unusual vehicle or people
“Non-sequitur” orders of shielding-quality materials Unusual change in shipping order or pickup
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9. I3 Foundations
Inverse, Nonlinear, Counter-Intuitive (sometimes)
Source
The Object causes diffusion and scattering of the Beam but the laws governing propagation and movement in
different media are known or can be ascertained. Working backwards from the Result, one computes and
estimates the Object on the basis of how the Beam must have changed in order to produce the Result instead of a
pattern, computable, for what there would have been if no Object had been present. Now, transfer this Inverse
Model ought of imaging and into the world of semiotics and intensions. Now, one can do inverse thinking from
something Sensed and Observed, in actuality, to determine what were some of the intervening steps and processes
out of the usual and ordinary process that would have produced something different, most likely less complex.
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10. I3 Examples:
Problem 1: Radioactive or chemical compounds are passing through a shipping
port or through the public waterworks - how to identify a pattern and link a set of
events and detections into a pattern that shows a natural or deliberate process
which can be detected, localized, and treated with countermeasures?
Problem 2: Small tumors or microscopic probes or nanosized drug delivery agents
are in the liver - how to accurately track, compare, recognize, and localize when
the patient is moving and the body is constantly changing?
The IRM (Inverse Relational Map) approach is one of several using inverse
problem modeling plus other nonlinear dynamic structures and functions in order
to produce not only usable answers but answers in real-time. Many of the
underlying mathematics and algorithms have been known and used before in other
disciplines. Our approach is to try something new, primarily in the short cuts and
speed-ups gained through applying higher-level representations and heuristics that
can significantly reduce the compute-cycle and delays.
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11. Making Sense of the Data (I)
• Basic diffusion equation - usable as starting point for inverse problems
∂ 2u 1 ∂u
Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT
2
= u( x ,0) = f ( x ) u(0, t ) = u(a, t ) = 0
∂x k ∂t
• Time-transition is accomplished in Fourier domain
∞
x 2 a x
f ( x ) = ∑ fn sin πn fn = ∫ f ( x ) sin πn dx
n =1 a a 0 a
∞
n
u( x , t ) = ∑ fne
2
−k ( πn a ) t
sin π
n =1 a
• Transition backwards in time requires amplification of high frequency
components - most likely to be noisy and skewed
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12. Making Sense of the Data (II)
• Heuristic and a priori constraints needed to maintain physical realism and
suppress distortions from inverse process
Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT
• First-pass solution best match or interpolation among a set of acceptable
alternatives
ˆ
x = arg min Ax − y s.t. x∈X
x
• Final solution may minimize the residual error and the regularization term
2 2
ˆ
x = arg min Ax − y 2 + λ L( x − x ) 2
x
Regularization offers fidelity to the observed data and an
a priori determined (e.g., higher-scale-observed) solution model
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13. Making Sense of the Data (III)
• Diffusion _ Attraction
• Modeling situations and schemas
Particular credits - J. P. Thirion, INRIA
as composite “images” in n-D
• Iterative process with
exploration of parallel tree paths
– Speculative track; not required
for Nomad Eyes sensor fusion
to be useful to analysts
– Purpose is to enable automation
of the analysis and forecasting
post-collection process
– Area of active current research
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14. Making Sense of the Data (IV) - I3BAT
• Multiple modalities
Sensor 1 Sensor 2 – Acoustic, EM, Optical, Text,
NLP, SQL, AI-reasoning…
• All looking at the same topic of
interest (aka “region”)
• Each sensitive to different
physical/logical properties
Property 3 – “Trigger” data
– Contiguity (space/time)
– Inference relations
Property 2 – “Hits” with conventional DB
Property 1 queries (immigration, known
associations, other
Background investigations)
• Compare with Terrorist Cadre
Tactic models (schemas, maps)
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15. CONFIG SETUP
(ETLJOB ADB (Initialize)
ADaM - making it real-time ETLSPEC)
System & Meta Data
Agent-Driven Data Mover
ORCHESTRATOR (ORCH)
• If you cannot collate,
coordinate and efficiently MONITO
R ETLP
access the collected data, in Generato
real-time, free-form (with functional
r space
respect to views and users)
and without blocking users Transformer
during backup and archiving Transformer
periods, then you have a very Transformer
inefficient database and it is Extractor Insrtor
not conducive to the open- Extractor Insertor
Extractor Loader
ended purposes of BioScan Control Monitor
or Nomad Eyes. Memory Memory
• The ADaM software
Docs
outperformed that from NCR- Data Thread Docs
and and
Teradata with their own Files
Memory Pool
product as a data Files Databas
Databas
warehouse. It outperformed es
Machine es
ab Initio, a leader in the field space
of Extract-Transfer-Load for
Fortune 100 VLDB ADaM runtime modules Setup and configuration
modules
applications. ADaM runtime components Internal elements
External data flow
sources/destinations
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17. Sensor Device Family
• 1. OPA ™ Organo-Phosphate Analyzer
– Nitrates, Organophosphates (e.g., Sarin, VX) (OPA ™)
– OPA in beta development with matching-fund opps
• 2. MagnetEyes ™
– Thin-film based magneto-optic sensing and imaging devices for desktop, industrial, and
micro-scale applications in security, anti-counterfeiting, structural engineering, and
biomedicine. Deployment-Ready
• 3. BioScan ™
– Handheld wireless base for plug-compatible interface-standardized sensors and imaging
• 4. Radiation sensors
– Gamma and neutron detection
– Compatible for GPS-locatable mobile wireless (telephony and wi-fi) devices
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18. OPA ™ Portable Version
The assay of OPs and other BChE
inhibitors is achieved due to the use
of nanostructured films based on
polyelectrolytes and the bi-enzyme
system cholineoxidase /
butyrylcholinesterase (ChO/BChE).
Conventional nerve agent organo-
phosphates (Sarin, VX. GB) and
carbamate type ChE-inhibitors can
be detected at extremely low levels.
Sensitivity for organophosphates
(DFP, paraoxon, trichlorfon) is
achievable @ 10 pM/L.
• Automated version
processes up to 24 samples For classical nerve agents the
in sequence detection limits will be an order of
• Portable unit can be adapted magnitude better; for instance,
with air sampling and carbamates (carbofuran, carbetamid,
condenser carbaryl) at @ 0.1 -1.0 nM/L.
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19. OPA Comparative Sensitivity (1)
Parameters Gas chromatograph GC with mass- PolyEnergetics
spectrometer portable handheld
Sensitivity (SN – 1.0 0.5 0.1
sanitary norm)
System price (USD) 10K – 20K 150K – 400K 400
Test cost (USD) 12 15 4
Microchip sensor n/a n/a 1
element cost (USD)
Time to perform test hours hours 30-70 min.
Sample preparation hours hours 10-20 min.
Field analysis Not possible Not possible Yes
Organic solvents Necessary Necessary No
Reagent consumption High High Low
Sample volume No No Yes
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21. Radiation sensor specs (targets)
Parameter Range
-25 -1 -80 -1
Gamma sensitivity 200 +80 s (µSv/h) 2cps(µR/h) to 100 -25 s (µSv/h) 1cps(µR/h)
+300 -1 +200 -1
Neutron sensitivity 200 -25 s (µSv/h) 2cps(µR/h) to 100 -25 s (µSv/h) 1cps(µR/h)
Gamma energy range 0.04 – 3.0 MeV
Neutron energy range 0.03 – 3.0 MeV
Dose equiv. rate 1 – 5000 µR/h
Dose equiv. error +/- 30%
False alarms < 1 per hour
Response time (gamma) < 2.5 s
U detection 15g at 0.5m, velocity <= 0.5 m/s, background rad < 25 µR/h
Pu detection 0.5g at 0.5m, velocity <= 0.5 m/s, background rad < 25 µR/h
Isotopes and materials U-235, U-238, Np-237, Puy-239, Pu-241, Cr-51, Ga-67, Pd-103, In-
detectable 111, I-131, Tl-201, Xe-133, Co-57, Co-60, Ba-133, Cs-137, Ir-192,
Se-75, Ra-226, Am-241 and others
Battery lifetime > 20 hrs. with average cell-phone usage (i.e., reduction of cell phone
battery life to not less than one typical day)
Weight < 100g
Dimensions smaller than 150mm x 50mm x 20mm
Cost per unit feasible to manufacture for under $50.00 in quantities > 10,000
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22. Today’s consumer-class RAD components
Our simple conversion with Nomad Eyes™
Existing mobile phone
Li-ion A/D logic Nomadiks logic
or
other
Rad-sensor element mProc Interface logic to
wireless internet
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23. 23
CerviScan HEAD
NT1004
Video
Chip (*)
TLWA1100
(*) NT1004 or LED
NT1003 options (Array)
TETRADTechnologies Group, Inc.
CerviScan STEM
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Image Cam/LED
Cam/LED Data
Recognitio Control Collection
Version 1 BioScan Architecture
n / Processor
Processor Processor
Classifier Module (*) Module (*)
Processor
Module (*)
(*) ST-20/40. ST FIVE, ARM7, StrongARM
20/40. ST FIVE, ARM7, StrongARM
(Dragonball), CY8C2xxxx, xX256, TE502 (SoC or
16/32 micro + Flash + SRAM chipset solutions for
16/32 micro + Flash + SRAM chipset solutions for
each logical module function
each logical module function
CerviScan BASE
Belkin
USB
USB Cable Interface VideoBus
II Logic
Charger Li ion
Lucent/
Interface Battery
Proxim
Wireless
Logic
24. Conclusions
• GSR / GIS databases can adapt to handling data produced by a Nomad Eyes
type network
• In each C-B-R-N-E category there exist today sensors with capability for
inclusion in a distributed network of mobile wi-fi devices
• Inverse methods can be successfully for accuracy and computational
performance) be applied to the problem of analyzing massive amounts of low-
accuracy, high-noise data from reporting sources
• Interpretation of sensor-analyzer data will benefit from adjunct and meta data
about the environment, such as provided by today’s GSR / GIS products
• Universality and reusability of network collection and transmission devices
simplifies human interface, training, time-lag and reduces errors.
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25. Current Project Status
Corporate-partnerships established and underway
IRAD program (internally funded 1999 – 2004)
I3BAT Phase 1
Sensors, phones, wi-fi networks ready
ADaM prototype completed
OpenNet prototype completed
Collaboratory prototype completed
Nomad Eyes Global “Peace Proliferation”
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26. Current Technology Development Status
• The electronics hardware for the mobile wireless image capture and
collection has been radically simplified.
• Pre-contract agreements with suppliers and partners in the electronics
hardware domain have been established.
• Matching fund agreements for phase-1 work have been obtained.
• The software development has proceeded extensively during 2001-2004
and includes work using SOAR, GeNie, BNJ, JESS, and PNL, plus
extensive work in the application of inverse method models.
• Project work can be resumed and a substantial team of technical personnel
can be activated within 1 to 3 months.
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27. References
• Early Nomad Eyes prototype including online co-development
experiment
http://tetradgroup.com/nomad/
• Early overview document (product oriented, high-level)
http://tetradgroup.com/library/bioscan.doc
• Technical documents and notes available, on archived CDs
• Early published paper on the neural net component
http://tetradgroup.com/library/bistablecam_ijcnn99.doc
• ADaM extract-transfer-load system, critical for the super-fast
movement of image data, triggering of agents, and coordination of
images within patient-specific and feature-specific database views
http://tetradgroup.com/library/ADaM_Design_Description1-1.doc
• ADaM performance optimization, a key part of the system enabling
massive throughput and parallelism for high-density imaging (not
only for BioScan but more for MRI, CT, PET, 3d-ultrasound, digital
x-ray) http://tetradgroup.com/ADaM_PerfOpt.doc
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28. Acknowledgements
By no means do we claim that those from whom we learn or collaborate will agree
with all of this, but thanks is due to more than a few…
• J. P. Thirion, INRIA
• Eric Klopfer, Henry Jenkins, MIT
• Eric Miller, David Castanon, Clem Karl, CENSSIS
• Tamara Koval, Forte Horizons LLC
• Peter Sharfman, MITRE
• ST Microelectronics SA
• T-Mobile (Deutsche Telekom)
• Attometrix
• Lee Arzt
• Jack Singer
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29. Contacts
• Martin Dudziak, PhD
– (804) 740-0342
– (202) 415-7295
– martin@forteplan.com (also mjdudziak@yahoo.com)
TETRAD Technologies Group, Inc.
28 Chase Gayton Circle, Suite 736
Richmond, VA 23238-6533
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30. BACKUP Material
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32. Basic Principles of OPA Operation (1)
Amperometric analysis of organophosphates (OPs), carbamates and other specific
and nonspecific inhibitors of butyrylcholinesterase (BChE).
BChE activity) is inversely related to inhibitor concentrations.
The analytical principle is based on the detection of hydrogen peroxide, released
as a result of two consequent enzymatic processes:
BChE
Butyrylcholine + H2O → Choline + Butyryc acid (1)
ChO
Choline + 2O2 + H2O → Betain + 2H2O2 (2)
Hydrogen peroxide is released at the final step and is detected through the
electrode.
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33. Basic Principles of OPA Operation (2)
Enzymes are fixed on a graphite support in the microelectrodes using layer-by-
layer self-assembling nanofilm technology. At present, single-enzyme electrodes
modified by oxidoreductases (cholineoidase of tyrosinase) are available for
sensitive chemical analysis of choline and phenol.
The first prototype of the hand-portable measuring unit was developed and tested
for simple analyte detection: hydrogen peroxide, glucose, choline.
This system is based upon the prior and currently available automated desktop
system capable of processing up to 24 liquid samples per removable tray. This
system can be adapted to an air condenser system for processing upwards of 450
L volumes into 10ml samples within approx. 10 minutes.
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34. OPA Sensitivity (2)
Numerous analytical approaches describing anticholinesterase detection are
published every year in the scientific literature, but they remain distant from
practical commercial application that can meet the demands of widespread
deployment, transit and movement, operations within intolerant physical
environments and conditions, and operation by personnel who are not expert
technicians. These are but a few of the problems that other systems face and that
our solution overcomes.
A possible reason for the difficulties with other technical approaches and
architectures is that primary attention is paid to the development of the sensitive
element but not both the sensitive element and the measuring device. Because at
present, water quality assays are based mainly on gas chromatography/gas
chromatography with mass-spectrometry techniques. A brief comparison of
performance characteristics with those that can be realized uniformly from the
handheld analyzer follows:
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35. Rad Sensor BACKUP Material
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37. Resources
• The following images and charts give a snapshot introduction to a few of the tool
components that were developed and applied in the BioScan R&D process. Not all
of these images reflect BioScan directly, cervical cancer, or skin-related imaging.
• These images are provided to show some of what was produced and can be deployed
now to either a new Bioscan initiative or to other projects, unrelated to BioScan, for
which the same expertise (including mathematical modeling, image analysis,
electronics design and testing, database and knowledgebase implementation) can be
very easily applied.
Wireless Telemed Interface
Macromolecular
Networks Simulation Verite interactive pattern
detection/classification
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38. Resources (More)
e-Presents conferencing and
Another Verite application, with EKG muilti-channel video streaming
ADaM’s exceptional performance
16000
14000
12000 Typical Fastload
Typical Tpump
Typical Mixed
10000
Peak Fastload
Rows/Sec
Peak Tpump
8000 Peak Fstld & Tpump
Transparent FastL
Transparent Tpump
6000
Special FastL
"Kitchen Sink"
4000 Peak ETL
2000
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39. Resources (Still More) Screenshots of SOAR-based production-rule system
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40. Nomad Eyes BACKUP Material
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41. Where are the likely targets and means?
In the public mind’s-eye and Angst
And the less-likely form for many reasons
Psycho-Shock is the Aim and
Nuclear Radiation is Powerful
even in non-lethal doses
Mass-dispersion with
uncertain contact and
degree will create the
most widespread fears
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43. Port of Baltimore
> 30M tons per year, mainly containers
2M+ residents in Baltimore and surrounding urban center
Main East-Coast rail and interstate highways traverse region
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44. Deployment - Where and How
• Static but ad-hoc
– Passage locations and nexus points for cargo and transfer vehicles
– Likeliest places but not limited to one configuration
• Pseudo-random
• Personal mobile units
– Assigned to staff personnel
– Personal cell phones
• Unpredictable - a “two-edged sword” that cuts in in favor of the Defenders
– Inverse predictive models can be applied better to the data “mass”
– Al Qaeda (or “X”) cannot predict where are our eyes and ears
• Sun Tzu (“Art of War”) - Always Make Your Enemy Nervous
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45. First Responder Capability as well
Notify Maximum Numbers of People ASAP after Terrakt
Redirect Survivors
Keep Other People Away
Assist People Finding Loved Ones
Provide Essential Life-Saving Information Real-Time
Coordinate and Inform First-Responder Teams
Locations of People
Active Sensor Array including useful data from public
Coordinate with volunteers
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