Radterrorism Spb Oct04


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Radterrorism Spb Oct04

  1. 1. Mobile Early Warning, Intervention and Response to Nuclear Terrakts October 19, 2004 WashingtonTETRAD i3 Inc. Boca Raton Moscow
  2. 2. Our Starting Points• Terrorism is a network phenomenon, not only a “hydra” but a culture with viral attributes• Technology must be assumed to be completely available to the terrorist and is no longer an issue of “can it come from former WMD centers or supplies” or is it being done in a rogue state camp. US, CA, UK, NL, FR, DE, RU, JP are not “rogue states” but have been basing and staging operations for techno-terrorists.• Radiation terrorism and the “RDD” is a very attractive modality because it is one of the most effective for social-economic-political (SEP) destabilization EVEN IF THE BOMB KILLS NO ONE• The likeliest targets for an RDD are those with the highest SEP disruption value• The likeliest process of assembling an RDD involves multiple trips, parts, components and is absolutely unlikely to be a classic single-source for the radioactive component• The most effective and deployed preventive countermeasures should also provide first-responder value and vice versa Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 2
  3. 3. Nomad Eyes™ and Asymmetric Thinking Applied to Asymmetric Threats• Applying the model and methods of terrorism thinking and principles of action INVERSELY to develop countermeasures that are:• rapidly and easily deployable (today, not after two years of $$ R&D)• robust but very flexible and fault-tolerant• low-cost, low-tech, easy-to-use, disposable technology where it counts - in the street and neighborhoods• engages and uses the victims themselves (the general population, “us”)• extensible and reconfigurable as new sensing capabilities evolve (e.g., chem, rad)• usable today as a testing platform in the real-world to build better countermeasures in the future• disruptive and unpredictable in the eyes of the terrorists - an “enemy in the dark” to which they cannot know where, when, or how to respond Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 3
  4. 4. Examination of Terrorist Methods “inside out” and Means of Employing the Victims and Targets for Defense You can’t take this on a plane or into many buildingsYou can take these almost anywhere.So do they.THIS was the key weapon for 9-11and for АВТОЗАВОДСКАЯIt is also one of the key defenses. When These Turn Into Those. Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 4
  5. 5. Value of Mobile Wireless Portable and Handheld Nets for an Asymmetric, Dynamic Countermeasure SystemFor Rad Terrorism but also for othertypes and necessarily looking for all,not only one Mobile units using both cellular and wireless internet/intranets Freeform but adhering to industry standards Incorporating the General Public Incorporating the commercial sector (advertising and consumer products) Asynchronous, Atypical, Asymmetric Sensor Fusion Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 5
  6. 6. Terrorism and Hunting Elephants1. It is hard to miss hitting an elephant even with apoor weapon2. It is hard to kill one with inadequate technology3. When the son or grandson of some unfortunatehunter grows up, he will seek out the Big One with avengeance, for a trophy-kill born out of revenge for hisfather’s demise4. He will take the time to consider innovativetechnology and tacticsAmerica and Russia are classic examples of“Elephant” Targets for Rad and other Substance-Based TerrorismExtensive Surface, Open Borders despite border-controlcountermeasuresExtensive Commerce that cannot be halted or curtailedDifferent types of open traffic to and withinExtensive non-reducible non-military nuclear industryWell-established in-country operating front-line enemy basesOpen, non-reducible communications infrastructure availablefor the enemy Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 6
  7. 7. But where are the likely targets and means? In the public mind’s-eye and Angst And the less-likely form for many reasons Psycho-Shock is the Aim and Nuclear Radiation is Powerful even in non-lethal doses Mass-dispersion with uncertain contact and degree will create the most widespread fears Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 7
  8. 8. Targets Consider only the two main targets OBJECTIVES similar/different MOTIVES different but complementary TARGETS different/similarHarm an ethnic enemy Disrupt economyHarm largest numbers Create dramatic shocks that diminish confidence in govt’s ability to protectCreate fear in the largest numbers Create logistic/information network havocDisrupt mass transportation Create electorate unrest, instabilityDestabilize government Destabilize governmentFocus on popular (transport)infrastructure Focus on economic infrastructure Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 8
  9. 9. RDD in the context of conventional attacksConsidering SEP Disruption and Destabilization as the “prime-directive” ofterrorist organizations capable/active in planning RDD and chem-bio tactics• Most likely choice is with massive dispersion through conventional+inflammatory attack• Spread the most compounds in the most uncertain paths among the largest number of possible affected victims• Affect the maximum number of structures including transportation routes• Aim for closure and disruption of normal use/traffic - it does not have to be for years, just months or weeks• Multiple small disruptive attacks easier and more effective than one block-buster Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 9
  10. 10. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (I)Prevention by Detection of the Planning OperationMovement of multiple types of components, not only RAD substancesTime-matching and space-matching of logically connective, supportive events“Sensor Fusion” of the Unordinary (Необычный) Kind - Tracer RAD readings perhaps not individually remarkable Photos of suspicious individuals and vehicles that have some “matches” Exceptional shipping orders, out-of-sequence, special-route, handling Parallel transit/shipment/transaction of non-contraband components useful in an RDDGoal toward Inverse Reasoning and Abductive Assimilation with other KBs / XsysFall-Back Value: Emergency public alerts and First-Responder capabilities Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 10
  11. 11. Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (II) EVENT ! Class (x) objects received by servers results in generation of n graphs representing hypothetical x y… relational maps; the majority are discarded, but events of interest trigger feedback to both autonomous and human-based nodes for additional collection and reorienting. No node or subset of nodes is reliant and the whole may be considered as a dynamic-geometry cellular automata. EVENT ! Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 11
  12. 12. MIMD, ETL, ADaM, MENE, GamingData collection and sensor communication based upon classic MIMD parallel processing ♦ Fault tolerance, fail-safe ♦ Load balancing ♦ Doesn’t communicate? Go to the next/nearest available Agent-enabled Extract-Transfer-Load processing from classic VLDB technology ♦ Up to 2K rows/sec, 80M rows/day ♦ Graph-theoretic architecture adapts well with semantic maps, topic maps, fuzzy logic ♦ Agents trigger DB queries in DW, others DBs, notifications to authorities, public MENE - Morphic Exploratory Navigational Environments ♦ For authorities and responders - high-res 3D Adobe Atmosphere VR worlds ♦ For the general public - reduced-scale/detail navigation via cell phones ♦ GPS-enabled or not Turning self-protection and communal security into a Game to get People Active ♦ Implicit, subtle educational-value mobile phone games with contests ♦ MIT collaborators - Comparative Media Studies (Klopfer, Jenkins et al) ♦ Get attention, participation, and free pertinent data with Positive Reinforcement Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 12
  13. 13. ADaM is Fast 16000 14000 12000 T yp ica l F a stlo a d T yp ica l T p u m p T yp ica l M ixe d 10000 P e a k F a stlo a dR o w s /S e c P eak T pum p 8000 P e a k F stld & T p u m p T ra n sp a re n t F a stL T ra n sp a re n t T p u m p 6000 S p e cia l F a stL "K itch e n S in k" 4000 P eak E T L 2000 0 " L d p L p d d p nk tL st p e ET a a m um ix as Si um m lo tlo Fa pu pu st ak Tp lM Tp tF as l en lT Fa tT ca ia Pe ak en lF ca h ec & pi en ak ar itc pi Pe ca tld Ty ar Sp Pe pi sp "K Ty Fs sp Ty an ak an Tr Tr Pe Copyrights2004eTETRAD I3 Inc. T e t T yp 13
  14. 14. And This is Why P_graph of ETLS (2) - - + 0 - 0 - - - + 0 0Actor objects - 0 -(nodes) 0 ETLPs (with ETL Set (with actors) ETLPs) - - - - ETL Set (with + + ETLPs) 0 0 - 0 - - 0 - 0 0 P_graph of ETLP (5) - - - - + 0 + - 0 - - - 0 P_graph of Exec - 0 - - (1) - 0 + 0 + 0 0 - 0 - ADaM exec - 0 - (program) 0 0 Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 14
  15. 15. Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (I) Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 15
  16. 16. Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (II) Port Name Tons (1,000s) [2002 stats] Norfolk Harbor 27,901,354 Newport News 11,300,962 7,400 of @ 400K importers account for more than 80% of imports to USA Prior to 9/11/2001, less than 2% of 6,000,000 containers inspectedDual Vulnerability, Dual Terrakt Strategies(1) Ship-in, use elsewhere (e.g., NYC, Washington)(2) Disrupt the Port Suez-class cranes, @ 70m length Forty 50-ton containers per hour - capacity Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 16
  17. 17. Port of Baltimore > 30M tons per year, mainly containers2M+ residents in Baltimore and surrounding urban centerMain East-Coast rail and interstate highways traverse region Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 17
  18. 18. Today’s consumer-class RAD components Our simple conversion with Nomad Eyes™ Existing mobile phoneLi-ion A/D logic Nomadiks logic or other Rad-sensor element mProc Interface logic to wireless internet Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 18
  19. 19. Deployment - Where and How• Static but ad-hoc – Passage locations and nexus points for cargo and transfer vehicles – Likeliest places but not limited to one configuration• Pseudo-random• Personal mobile units – Assigned to staff personnel – Personal cell phones• Unpredictable - a “two-edged sword” that cuts in in favor of the Defenders – Inverse predictive models can be applied better to the data “mass” – Al Qaeda (or “X”) cannot predict where are our eyes and ears• Sun Tzu (“Art of War”) - Always Make Your Enemy Nervous Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 19
  20. 20. More on Compound Eyes Multiple TYPES of sensor data Multiple INSTANCES at multiple TIMES INVERSE Methods applied “as if” in surface/subsurface imaging: the task is to find what events and processes may be the modifiers of known or deducible behaviors USING •Abductive rules •Bayesian probabilistic inference •Fuzzy inference •Heuristics and “common sense” rulesFor all the value of sophisticated detectors, an “outlier” element or two could make all the difference:Requests for building or water/sewer line plans Repeat-visits of unusual vehicle or people“Non-sequitur” orders of shielding-quality materials Unusual change in shipping order or pickup Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 20
  21. 21. Our Technology Focus: Inverse, Nonlinear, Counter-Intuitive (sometimes)Source The Object causes diffusion and scattering of the Beam but the laws governing propagation and movement in different media are known or can be ascertained. Working backwards from the Result, one computes and estimates the Object on the bsais of how the Beam must have changed in order to produce the Result instead of a pattern, computable, for what there would have been if no Object had been present. Now, transfer this Inverse Model ought of imaging and into the world of semiotics and intensions. Now, one can do inverse thinking from something Sensed and Observed, in actuality, to determine what were some of the intervening steps and processes out of the usual and ordinary process that would have produced something different, most likely less complex. Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 21
  22. 22. Making Sense of the Data (I)• Basic diffusion equation - usable as starting point for inverse problems ∂ 2u 1 ∂u Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT = u( x ,0) = f ( x ) u(0, t ) = u(a, t ) = 0 ∂x 2 k ∂t• Time-transition is accomplished in Fourier domain ∞  x 2 a  x f ( x ) = ∑ fn sin πn  fn = ∫ f ( x ) sin πn dx n =1  a a 0  a ∞  n u( x , t ) = ∑ fne −k ( πn a ) t 2 sin π  n =1  a• Transition backwards in time requires amplification of high frequency components - most likely to be noisy and skewed Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 22
  23. 23. Making Sense of the Data (II)• Heuristic and a priori constraints needed to maintain physical realism and suppress distortions from inverse process• First-pass solution best match or interpolation among a set of acceptable Particular credits - Roger Dufour, MIT alternatives ˆ x = arg min Ax − y s.t. x∈X x• Final solution may minimize the residual error and the regularization term 2 2 ˆ x = arg min Ax − y 2 + λ L( x − x ) 2 x Regularization offers fidelity to the observed data and an a priori determined (e.g., higher-scale-observed) solution model Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 23
  24. 24. Making Sense of the Data (III) • Diffusion _ Attraction • Modeling situations and schemas Particular credits - J. P. Thirion, INRIA as composite “images” in n-D • Iterative process with exploration of parallel tree paths – Speculative track; not required for Nomad Eyes sensor fusion to be useful to analysts – Purpose is to enable automation of the analysis and forecasting post-collection process – Area of active current research Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 24
  25. 25. Making Sense of the Data (IV) - I3BAT • Multiple modalities Sensor 1 Sensor 2 – Acoustic, EM, Optical, Text, NLP, SQL, AI-reasoning… • All looking at the same topic of interest (aka “region”) • Each sensitive to different Property 3 physical/logical properties – “Trigger” data – Contiguity (space/time) Property 2 – Inference relations Property 1 – “Hits” with conventional DB queries (immigration, known Background associations, other investigations) • Compare with Terrorist CadreParticular credits - Eric Miller, NEU Tactic models (schemas, maps) Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 25
  26. 26. Public involvement, education, gaming Educational Games Children, adults Individual, teamCitizen Corps concept Volunteer Activists Flexible E-Paper (FOLED) Commerciali$m Public kiosks, signs Contests, ads, prizes related to games Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 26
  27. 27. First Responder Capability as well Notify Maximum Numbers of People ASAP after Terrakt Redirect Survivors Keep Other People Away Assist People Finding Loved Ones Provide Essential Life-Saving Information Real-TimeCoordinate and Inform First-Responder Teams Locations of People Active Sensor Array including useful data from public Coordinate with volunteers Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 27
  28. 28. Current Status Corporate-partnerships IRAD program I3BAT Phase 1 ADaM prototype completed OpenNet prototype completed Collaboratory prototype completed Developments with US federal, state homeland security programsNomad Eyes Global “Peace Proliferation” Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 28
  29. 29. Acknowledgements• J. P. Thirion (INRIA, France)• Roger Dufour (MIT, USA)• Eric Klopfer, Henry Jenkins (MIT, USA)• Eric Miller (NEU, USA)• Center for Surface and Subsurface Imaging and Sensing• ST Microelectronics, SA• Adobe Corporation Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 29
  30. 30. A tetrahedron is the strongest and moststable natural geometrical structure 1+1+1+1 = More ----------------- Homeland The S4 Synergy Security Nomad Eyes I3 Integrative Personal Inverse Health Intelligence BioScan Healthcare Clinical Disease Mgt Therapy HealthNVest I3DIT In business and finance as well as in math and science Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 30
  31. 31. Contacts• Martin J. Dudziak, PhD (Technology) – (954) 545-4500 – +7-926-530-1211 or +7-095-172-6369 Moscow (GMT +3) – martin@forteplan.com (also mjdudziak@yahoo.com)• Brent A. Kish (Contracts) – (954) 545-4500 – (954) 614-4172 – brent@forteplan.com• Tamara F. Koval, MD (Project Mgr; Int’l Relations) – (804) 647-0374 – tamara@forteplan.comTETRAD I3 Inc., 1206 NW 45 St., Pompano Beach FL 33064 Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 31