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Similar to Speech To Beijing Foreign Investors Club 93
Similar to Speech To Beijing Foreign Investors Club 93 (7)
Speech To Beijing Foreign Investors Club 93
- 1. 马克 中国日报财经执行主编 北京 外国语 大学名誉教授
- 28. 贫困人口 占农村人口百分比 1978 年 2.5 亿 30.7 ％ 2000 年 3000 万 3 ％
- 39. ★ ★ ★
- 46. 谢谢
Editor's Notes
- Nimen hao. 你们好 Thank you, Steven, for inviting me and my esteemed translator Ma Yi to this auspicious occasion. 感谢 Steven ，邀请我们来参加这个活动。
- I propose to speak to you today on what I perceive to be the challenges facing China’s economy in the months and years ahead and why I believe that if there is not a glittering future, there is indeed a glowing one. 我今天想要跟大家分享的是我对近来中国经济面临的挑战的理解，以及为什么我相信即使未来不是辉煌的，未来也将是光彩夺目的。 I am grateful to my colleagues at China Daily, some of whose research and reporting I have drawn upon while compiling this address. 在此我也要感谢我在中国日报的同事，我今天讲的一些内容也有他们的研究成果在其中。 First I would like to make a general observation based on the three years I have lived in Beijing and my time in Hong Kong in the early to mid-90s that make me optimistic about the future. 首先，我想先基于我在北京居住的这三年以及我 90 年代中期在香港读过的时间做一个简单的回顾，这些日子让我对未来充满了信心。
- One thing that distinguishes the East from the West is a radically different work ethic. 完全不同的工作方式，是区别东方和西方的因素之一。 Many ordinary employees here work a five-and-a-half or six-day week. That is not common in the West, where there are limits to time that can be spent working. 通常这里的员工每周工作五天半或者六天。而在西方，用于工作的时间是有限制的，这和东方国家非常不同。 You have just 10 days of vacation here as opposed to an average of 25 in the West. 你们一般只有 10 天年假，但是西方的平均年假是 25 天。 Even when you allow for the public holidays here, staff work the weekends before in order to make up for the time off. 即使在有公共假期的时候，也需要提前用周末加班以抢出休假时的工作。
- In other words, China is a country committed to hard work. It is ingrained in the culture, a culture that is by its very nature competitive. 换句话说，中国是一个致力于勤劳工作的国家。这在中国的文化中根深蒂固，这本身就是中国天然的竞争力。 Economics is ultimately it’s a human science. That means it’s psychological. Humans all too often act stupidly through greed. The West got greedy. There is still not enough in the East so people here still chasing necessities. 经济归根到底是人文科学，也就是心理学。人类因为贪欲经常会做出愚蠢的事情。西方社会就很贪心。在东方，贪欲还没有彻底蔓延，所以人们仍然追求的是必需品。 Sitting and receiving versus running and chasing make for two very different economics and politics. The hungry always snap at the heels of the well fed until they grab a slice and drain their blood. Then they in turn get fat. 一个坐享其成，一个跑步前进追求成功，行程了两个完全不同的经济政治体。饥饿者紧跟富裕者的脚步，直到他们也分到一杯羹并且榨干富裕者的血液。然后他们变成了富裕的那个。 People here are ashamed of not working hard whereas their European counterparts are shielded in a EU-wide equivalent of the iron rice bowl. 东方人因为不努力工作而感到羞耻，然而欧洲人在欧盟的庇护下享用着铁饭碗。
- This was remarked on by the chairman of the China Investment Corporation quoted in the Western media : 这样的状况，西方媒体引用了中国投资有限公司董事长的话： “ The chairman of the supervisory board of China Investment Corporation, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, put further distance between China and the eurozone bail-out, saying that Europe’s bloated welfare state meant that people did not work hard enough. 中投的监事长，国家主权财富基金，把中国和欧元区救市的距离拉得更远，他说，欧洲高福利的国家意味着人们没有足够努力工作。 “ I think if you look at the troubles which happened in European countries, this is purely because of the accumulated troubles of their worn out welfare societies,” Jin Liqun said in an interview with Al Jazeera television. “I think the labour laws are outdated – the labour laws induce sloth, indolence rather than hard working. The incentive system is totally out of whack.” 我想如果你看看在欧洲国家发生的问题，纯粹是因为他们挥度财富社会而积累的麻烦。 金立群在接受半岛电视台采访的时候如是说。我认为劳动法已经过时了，劳动法导致懒惰、散漫而不是勤劳。这样的激励系统已经在错误的边缘了。 Europe by contrast is largely socialist. although the British moves to reduce their structural deficit including reducing their welfare expenditure means they can borrow at good rates on World Capital Markets - lower than France’s and about ONE THIRD of Italy’s. 与东方相反的是，欧洲是相当社会化的。虽然英国已经开始减少福利开支等结构性赤字的行动，以在世界资本市场以好的利率借款－比法国低，只有意大利的三分之一。
- Bond Yields on UK, Italian and German Debt 在英国，意大利和德国债务的债券收益率
- Over the years Europe has increased pensions, reduced retirement ages, lengthened holiday entitlements and cut working hours. 多年来，欧洲增加了养老金，降低退休年龄，延长假期的权利和削减工时。 Its hospitals are free so there is no incentive to save for a rainy day on the health front. 欧洲的医疗是免费的，因此也就不会激励人们在健康方面储蓄以备不时之需。
- In the United States there is an ongoing debate about subsidizing healthcare with the Republicans firmly against the idea. 在美国，人们在针对共和党坚决反对的补贴医疗的想法上激烈地争论着。 It is avowedly a capitalist system – nature red in tooth and claw, every man for himself, and the market rules. 这是一个公然地资本主义制度－每个人都是自私的，这就是市场规则。
- However, that has not been the case in practice. 然而现实中不是这样的。 We saw at the height of the financial crisis in 2008 that in order to save the market system the US government had to abandon the market system, bailing out banks. 我们在 2008 年金融危机的时候看到，为了拯救市场体系，美国政府不得不放弃市场体系来拯救银行。 Banks were also bailed out in Europe. 在欧洲，银行也是被拯救的。
- Now the chickens are coming home to roost. 现在，他们要自食其果了。 The money governments borrowed both in the US and Europe has to be repaid. 政府在美国或欧洲借的钱是必须偿还的。 The so-called PIIGS nations – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain – are in danger of going bankrupt. 所谓 piigs 国家，葡萄牙、意大利、爱尔兰、希腊、西班牙都面临破产的危险。
- So where does that leave China? 那么中国又如何？ There are several critical factors that China either already faces or soon will have to. 以下是一些中国已经面临或即将面临的重要问题：
- They are: How does an export-led country such as China cope with declining overseas demand when its biggest customers, Europe and the US, are in recession? 像中国这种以出口为主导的国家，如何应对经济衰退时，其最大的客户欧洲和美国等国海外需求的下降 ？ What will be the effect of rising labour and material costs? 劳动力和材料成本上升将影响那些因素？ And what does the future hold for the yuan in terms of its value and becoming freely tradable? 日后人民币是否会升值和自由交易？ How does China react to an increasingly insecure and protectionist US and Europe? With Elections looming politicians both sides of the Atlantic are “grandstanding” and China is an easy target for their protectionist rhetoric. 中国会如何应对越来越不安全、越来越保护主义的欧美？ 大西洋两岸的政客被迫在眉睫的选举逼得“哗众取宠”而中国是他们保护主义论调容易攻击的一个目标。 How does China regulate its financial institutions and protect against a re-run of the US and European banking crisis? 中国如何规范其金融机构并且保护其不会重蹈欧美银行的覆辙？ How does China improve agricultural efficiency? How does the US still produce cheaper pigs, for example, than China? 中国如何提高农业的产出效率？美国如何生产比中国和其它国家更便宜的猪肉？
- I shall answer those questions in the order in which I put them. 我会一一解释这些问题 During the first 10 months of this year, China’s trade surplus with the US fell to less than 1.4 percent of its gross domestic product, from under 3 percent in 2010. 在今年的前十个月，中国的贸易顺差从 2010 年的 3 ％下降到 1.4% 。 In other words, it is importing less in percentage terms. 换句话说，中国的进口百分比在减少。 I a recent speech Wen Jibao said the government was improving policies so companies could import more goods. 温家宝总理近期一个讲话里提到，政府在改进政策以求企业能够进口更多的商品。
- China is now the largest export market for Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Brazil and South Africa. 中国现在是日本、韩国、东南亚、巴西和南非的最大出口市场。 It is the second largest export market for the European Union and the third largest for the United States. 是欧盟国家的第二大出口市场，也是美国的第三大出口市场。
- What’s been happening? The Chinese government has initiated a programme of increased domestic consumption. 发生了什么？中国政府启动了一个增加内需的方案。 The world’s biggest factory is now the world’s second biggest importer. 世界最大的工厂现在是世界第二大进口商。 That has not been as hard as some might imagine. 这不象有些人想像的那么难。 China’s middle class is growing and consuming more, and it’s not just exports they want. 中国的中产阶级在增多，他们的消费也在增加，他们要的不只是出口。
- The McKinsey Global Institute projected in 2008 that China’s middle class would increase from 43 percent of the population to 76 percent by 2025. 麦肯锡全球研究所 2008 年一项研究预测，中国的中产阶级到 2025 年，将从当时的 43 ％提高到 76 ％。 That is more than one billion people. The Chinese market will be the third or possibly higher consumer market at that time depending on what happens elsewhere. 那就是增加 10 亿人。那时中国就将成为第三甚至更大的消费市场，就看到时候世界其它地方怎么发展了。
- Small and medium businesses hit by credit controls imposed to control inflation this year (remember it was as high as 6.5 percent in July) suffered. Many in the Pearl River Delta went out of business. They were also hit by rising labour and material costs and the unregulated business of loan sharks. 中小企业由于控制通涨导致的信贷缩紧而遭受寒冬。很多珠三角地区企业倒闭。其原因还在于持续增长的劳动力和原材料价格的上涨，以及不规范的企业高利贷。 So what is happening to cope with that? 那么要怎么应对呢？
- Earlier this month, China Development Bank Securities Ltd said it is negotiating with regulators to launch asset-backed bonds to make it easier for small and medium businesses to borrow money. 本月初， 中国国家开发银行证券有限公司表示，它正在与监管机构进行谈判，推出资产抵押债券，以使中小型企业借钱更容易。 Talks have already been held with Shenzhen Stock Exchange and it is hoped the securities will be issued next year. 与深圳证券交易所的谈判已经在进行，并且希望明年可以发行。 The bonds will be based on a pool of assets injected by SMEs, with investors to be repaid by cash flows generated from the asset pool. 债券将基于中小企业注入资产池的资金，并用投资者从资产池产生的现金流量偿还。
- Small companies have been struggling with tough credit conditions resulting from the central bank’s move to battle inflation and property bubbles via tight monetary policy. 小企业在与中央银行控制通货膨胀和地产泡沫的从紧货币政策导致的严格信贷条件做斗争。 Left with less capital to lend, banks have shied away from lending to SMEs and charged them higher interest rates. SMEs, for their part, have few fixed assets and poor credit records, so they lack bargaining power with banks. 缺少用于放贷的资金，银行避开了对中小企业的放贷，并且收取更高的利率。而中小企业从他们的角度看，固定资产少，信用记录不够好，因此缺少与银行的议价能力。
- A government-backed special fund should also be set up to guarantee the SME asset-backed bonds. Financial derivatives, such as credit default swaps, could also be used to boost the bonds’ credit ratings. 政府支持的专项资金也应成立，以保证中小企业的资产抵押债券。金融衍生工具，如信贷违约掉期，也可以用来提高债券的信用评级。 Compared with bank loans, SMEs are less likely to default on bonds, as issuing bonds requires issuers to publish annual reports and stipulate clear obligations. Those conditions bring them under closer investor and regulatory scrutiny. 与银行贷款相比，中小企业不太可能违约债券，因为发行债券，要求发行人发布年度报告，并规定明确的义务。这些条件使他们更密切地被投资者和监管审查。 This is a positive move towards boosting local demand and safeguarding jobs. 这是发展内需控制就业地积极措施 It’s not the first time asset-backed securities have been issued in China but it is part of a trend toward a market economy. 这不是中国第一次颁布基于资产支持的证券，但是这是走向市场经济的趋势。
- A market economy that is more open. The government has already signaled its intention to open up China to more overseas foreign direct investment. 市场经济是更加开放的。政府已经表明中国将开放给更多海外直接投资。 It is keen to see money from overseas being invested in the shares of mainland companies. 它渴望看到海外的资金投入给大陆股份企业。
- The Shanghai Stock Exchange said this month its basically ready to let foreign issuers sell stock, paving the way for companies from HSBC Holdings PLC to Coca-Cola Co to list in the world’s second-biggest equity market. 上海证券交易所说，这个月他们基本做好了准备，允许如汇丰 , 可口可乐等外国发行人卖股票，为上海成为世界第二大股票市场做铺垫。 Trading should start “as soon as possible when the time is ripe”, said Xu Ming, executive vice-president in charge of the international stocks board. While there's no timetable, the exchange has finished work on technological and regulatory requirements, he added. “ 时机成熟时应尽快启动交易”徐明，负责国际股票交易的执行副总经理说，不过这没有时间表，技术和监管上的要求已经转换完成。 The trading of foreign equities will mark the biggest change for China’s stock market in more than five years and add impetus to Shanghai’s drive to become a global financial center by 2020. 外国证券的交易将是中国股票市场未来五年最大的转变，并且加快上海到 2020 年成为全球金融中心的步伐。 It will broaden options for the nation’s 85 million individual investors who are restricted from buying shares abroad by China’s capital controls, with HSBC, Coca-Cola and NYSE Euronext Inc among companies expressing interest in selling stock in Shanghai. 这会扩宽中国 8500 万个人投资者的选择 ，他们被中国的资本管制所限制，不能从国外购买股票，而如汇丰、可口可乐和纽约泛欧交易所表示有意愿在上海出售股份。
- The internationalization of the securities market will benefit the whole nation and overseas companies are highly motivated. 证券市场的国际化有利于整个国家，而海外公司的积极性被高度调动。 Listing in China would let foreign companies benefit from higher valuations and give them access to Chinese currency to fund their expansion in the world’s second-biggest economy. 在中国上市，让外国公司受益于更高的估值，允许他们可以使用中国货币，有助于他们在世界第二大经济体中的扩张。
- As an adjunct to this, house prices are now reported to have fallen in 10 cities across China. 作为附加，中国 10 个城市的放假已经开始下降。 Although that hurts those who bought at the height of the boom, it means tomorrow’s mortgagees will be less saddled with debt and able to spend more. 虽然会打击那些高点买房人，这意味着日后的抵押人将背负更少的债务，有更多能力消费。
- Now on to increased wages. 现在说说增加的工资。 They have partly been caused because there are fewer migrant workers willing to travel from western China because their own communities are receiving huge investments and therefore offering job opportunities. 一部分原因是愿意从中国西部出来的外来工越来越少，因为他们的家乡得到了大额投资，因此提供了就业机会。 Why head east if you can earn the same at home and be near your family? 如果你可以在家附近挣到同样的工资，为什么还要到东部来打工呢？ That means more money in their back pockets and an increased ability to spend it.’ 这意味着他们兜里有更多的钱，也有更多的能力消费。 Dow Chemical Co is an example of one business expanding westwards. It plans to add another 1,000 employees over the next five years. 陶氏化学就是一个向西部发展的例子。它计划下一个五年再招聘一千名员工。
- As China invests more in health and education there is less incentive to save. 中国在医疗和教育上的投资也导致百姓较少的储蓄。
- Since the start of far-reaching economic reforms in the late 1970s, growth has fueled a remarkable increase in per capita income and a decline in the poverty rate from 85 percent in 1981 to 16 percent in 2005 (poverty being defined as the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day. 深远的经济改革在 20 世纪 70 年代末开始以来，经济增长对个人均收入显着增加起到积极作用，贫困率从 1981 年的 85 ％下降到 2005 年的 16 ％（贫困人数定义生活在每天不到 1.25 美元。） This is a trend that is continuing. 这个趋势还在继续。 With common prosperity as the goal of socialism with Chinese characteristics, poverty alleviation has always been at the top of the agenda for the Chinese government. 共同富裕是具有中国特色的社会主义目标，扶贫一直是中国政府议事日程中的重要一项。 “ What the government has achieved in the past three decades since the country started its reform and opening-up in the late 1970s, testifies to the effectiveness of the policies it has implemented in this regard. 70 年代末改革开放以来，中国政府过去三十年的成就，验证了在这方面政策实施的有效性。
- “ In 1978, the total number of rural residents living in poverty was 250 million, 30.7 percent of the total rural population. By the year 2000, the percentage had been reduced to just 3 percent of the total rural population at that time, 30 million people. 在 1978 年，农村居民生活在贫困中的总人数是 2.5 亿，占农村总人口的 30.7 ％。到 2000 年，这一比例已减少到当时农村总人口的 3 ％，约 3 千万人。
- “ That the central government’s outlay on agriculture, rural areas and villagers increased from 214.42 billion yuan in 2003 to 857.79 billion in 2010, testifies to the importance the government has attached to poverty alleviation and rural development. 中央政府对农业、农村地区以及农村人口的支出，从 2003 年的 2144.2 亿元人民币，增加到 2010 年的 8577.9 亿元，证明政府重视扶贫和农村发展的重要性。
- “ The subsidies the central government paid to the rural cooperative medical care scheme totaled 1.4 billion yuan in 2010 alone, which benefited about 46.15 million villagers. Quite a number of local governments have started to offer aged rural villagers pensions in their attempt to make life easier for them. 中央政府支付给农村合作医疗计划的补贴，仅在 2010 年一年就达到 14 亿元人民币，使约 4615 万村民受益。不少地方政府已经开始给年纪大的村民发放养老金，使他们的生活更轻松。
- “ Various other policies have been implemented in recent years to relieve the financial burden on rural residents. The agriculture tax was abolished from 2006, and rural students have been exempted from tuition and miscellaneous fees from 2007. From October this year, the State Council launched a project to provide free lunch to 26 million rural students in 680 counties on a trial basis. 近年来，减轻农村居民的经济负担的其他各种政策也开始实施。从 2006 年的农业税被取消，并从 2007 年农村学生已免交学杂费。从今年 10 月，国务院发起了一个项目，为 680 个县的 2600 万农村学生试行提供免费的午餐。
- “ Central and local governments are also trying their best to help poverty-stricken villagers migrate from places where the harsh conditions make life a constant challenge to locations where conditions are more favorable. 中央和地方政府也尽力帮助贫困村民从条件苛刻的地方地方迁移到生活条件较好的地区。 “ However, despite these initiatives, improving the life of rural residents in the country’s less-developed or underdeveloped areas will continue to be an important task for the governments at all levels in the years to come.” “ 不过，尽管有这些举措，提高在全国的欠发达或发展中地区农村居民的生活，还将是今后几年中各级政府的重要任务。”
- The other elephant in the room is the yuan and its future. 另一个重要问题就是人民币以及它的未来。 Much has been written about certain sections of the US political establishment blaming an undervalued RMB as the cause of their own economic woes. 美国政体的某些部门将自己经济困境的原因归咎于被低估的人民币，已经不是新闻。 Much has been written rubbishing that. Indeed, I have submitted my own thoughts to the debate, central to which was: “Remember what happened to Japan when it succumbed in 1985 to US pressure to revalue the yen.” 那些说法都是垃圾。事实上，我已经表达了自己的想法，其核心是：“记住 1985 年迫于美国的压力，日元升值致使日本发生的情况。” The result was a bubble that burst and an economy that has yet to recover. 当时的结果是市场泡沫破灭，经济到现在还没有完全恢复。
- No, the US’s woes are that as a nation it saves too little, borrows too much, has exported much of its manufacturing to countries where labour is cheaper, refuses to export certain high-tech products to China and resorts to what it euphemistically calls “quantitative easing” – printing more paper money without the proportionate increase in GDP to match it. 美国的困境是，作为一个国家，它的积蓄太少，借用太多，出口其工业生产的大部分地区，是劳动力便宜的国家，拒绝对中国向出口某些高科技产品，救助与美名其曰为“量化宽松”的政策， 印刷更多的纸币却没有在国内生产总值的比例上相应增加。
- My first point on this is that the exchange rate of the yuan is a sovereign issue. It is for China alone to decide. 我的第一个观点是，人民币汇率是个主权问题，应该由中国独立确定。 Secondly, since it was revalued in July 2005, the yuan has gained by 30 percent against the dollar and appreciated by about 10 percent since the government ended a two-year peg in June 2010. 其次，因为是在 2005 年 7 月重估，人民币兑美元的汇率增加了约 30 ％，在 2010 年 6 月政府结束为期两年的 PEG 后又获得约 10 ％的升值。 With the crises in Europe and the US, it is a good thing for overseas investors to diversify away from the euro and the dollar. 在欧洲和美国发生经济危机的时候，人民币升值对海外投资者的好事，为他们提供了欧元和美元以外的多元化选择。
- What better than to buy the yuan? 比买入人民币更好的是什么？ To back up this view, let me call on the views of Permal Group, one of the world’s oldest and largest hedge funds. 为了支持我这个观点，请允许我引用全球历史最悠久最大的对冲基金 PERMAL 集团的观点。 Its chief executive, Isaac Souede, predicts the yuan will appreciate another 30 percent in the next five to six years. 它的执行官，艾萨克 Souede ，预测人民币将在未来五至六年另有 30 ％的升值。
- China is working on an agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to settle trade in yuan. 中国正在和东盟国家协商用人民币进行交易。 The framework agreement between China and ASEAN, which is likely to be signed late this year or early next year, will pave the way for banks in China and ASEAN countries to start exchanging yuan for ASEAN currencies. 中国与东盟的框架协议可能在今年年底或明年年初签署，将为中国和东盟国家的银行用人民币交易东盟货币铺好道路。
- The Chinese government first allowed trials of cross-border trade settlement in yuan in some cities in July 2009. Hong Kong, Macao and ASEAN were the first overseas pilot regions. 2009 年 7 月中国政府首次允许人民币跨境贸易结算在一些城市试点。香港，澳门和东盟是第一批大陆以外的试点地区。 The trial scheme has now been extended to all parts of China and all countries and regions overseas. 现在试点计划已经扩大到中国所有地区，以及海外所有国家和地区。
- China’s yuan settlement in cross-border trade surged to 957.57 billion yuan in the first half of 2011, 13.3 times more than that for the same period of last year, according to statistics from the central bank. 根据央行的统计数据，中国的人民币跨境贸易结算在 2011 年上半年猛增至 9575.7 亿元人民币，比去年同期增长 13.3 倍。 Plenty of groundwork has to be undertaken before the yuan can fully float internationally. 人民币可以全球范围内自由兑换之前，要进行充足的铺垫。
- This should be viewed against the historical backdrop of the development of the eurobond market at a time when the US was racking up big trade surpluses and rather like the yuan now there were lots of dollars taking a “vacation” outside their home country. 对照 当年 美国持续增加贸易顺差时，欧 元 债券市场发展的历史背景来看， 人民币目前的发展情况与此类似。 现在 仍 有大量美元到本国以外“休假” 的现象应该引起我们注意。 This pool of money was tapped through sophisticated financial markets like the City of London so triple-A borrowers could borrow money at prime rates. 资金池通过伦敦金融城之类复杂的金融市场，借款人可以用最优惠的利率借款。？？
- The dim sum bond market as it is now called is developing fast and major Multinationals like Unilever who sell Walls Ice Cream in China have issued dim sum bonds denominated in yuan. Hong Kong, Singapore and London markets are all keen to get into the lucrative dim sum bond market. 所谓的点心债券市场在快速发展，大的跨国企业如在中国销售和路雪冰淇淋的联合利华，发行点心债券是以人民币计价。 香港，新加坡和伦敦市场都渴望进入利润丰厚的点心债券市场。
- However, it is not inconceivable that with the dollar so shaky and China’s economy relatively stable and growing at more than 8 percent in the foreseeable future, the yuan could become the next reserve currency. 然而，美元如此不稳定，中国经济相对稳定，并且以超过 8 ％的速度增长，人民币在可预见的将来成为储备货币不是不可想象的。 Certainly, investors will regard the Chinese currency as a long-term, less risky and stable way than volatile equities and bonds to invest in China. 当然，投资者将把 投资 人民币作为长期、低风险的稳定的方法，而不是用不稳定的股权或债券来投资中国。
- The dire economic situations in Europe and the US mean there will be rich pickings for Chinese businesses already in overseas markets and those wishing to enter them. 在欧洲和美国严峻的经济形势意味着已经进入或者希望进入海外市场的中国企业将会来摘取果实。 There will be bargains galore. 会有很多便宜可占的 。