presentazione (inglese) di un intervento tenuto presso l'università di Heidelberg sull'economia del falso nel mercato dell'arte. presentation (English) of a speech at the University of Heidelberg on the economy of the fake art market.

1. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
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for an economy
of art forgery
A preliminary study
Heidelberg, september 2014

2. the original idea
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there are many ways to discover forgery in the art world.
several of these, however, are incredibly expensive.
it’s possible to find some alternatives, which help us in this conflict?
This study proposes an economic approach to the problem, trying to
understand if there are different models of market among genuine art
works and counterfeits.
mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com

3. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
the proposal
normally every person or institution attempts to maximize utility as a consumer and
economic profit as a producer. and and this is also valid in the art market. the project
presented is to study ownership transfers in the art world, to understand if those who
intentionally sells fakes assume different economic behauvior or strategies from those who
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do not.
a limitation: many fakes have never been discovered or have never been reported to the
public; then market analysis, extremely complicated, is also far from satisfactory in its
results. a possible solution, in these cases, is to try to use a series of simulations

4. Simulations - data
● groups: 8
● players: 36 for each group
● simulated actors: rightful owners, forgers, private collectors, museums, auction houses,
brokers, investors, experts
● properties: 256
● mechanisms: auction, individually negotiated, private offering
each group has played for five days. the goal of each player was to maximize their own gain
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both in economic terms and in reputation.
mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com

5. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
Simulations - groups
two groups from university of California Berkeley, human sciences and economics area
(master degree level – graduates);
one from Københavns Universitet, human sciences and economic / law area (master degree
level - students);
two from Latvijas Universitāte, human sciences and economics area (master degree level -
students);
two from Università di Ferrara, economic and law area (master degree level – students);
one from Smithsonian Institute, - all the research area (internist – students and graduates);
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6. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
Simulations - rules
● each work has a market value and a reputation. players know only a generic estimate (from 500.000 $ to 12.000.000 $; from 1 to
10 points ); at the end of the game, two or more works by the same author are valued 20% more;
● anyone can freely contact and be contacted by museums, brokers and auction houses; experts can only be contacted by anyone
and cannot buy-sell anything; other participants start with a list of contacts and can increase it by paying a fee for each
contact added;
● any transaction performed successfully enhances personal reputation (+1);
● buy or trying to sell a fake decreases reputation when and if the fake is made public; the decrease is even greater for museums
and experts;
● if a museum or a collector checks an art work and discover that it is a fake, can publicly denounce it and not lose reputation;
● discover a fake before buying it increases reputation;
● anyone can request an analysis by an expert. control is not free of charge (price is fixed by the expert and can be fixed or based
on the artwork value) and take some time (standard 12 hours, accurate 18 hours);
● experts receive a response on the authenticity of the painting accurate to 75% (90% in case of accurate analysis); experts can
lie;
● each work can be bought and sold without limits; in each transaction, 5% is paid as tax.
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7. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
Simulations - prize
● for each group were selected the four best players who then played the final: to win we
consider the improvement over the initial conditions of each player, based on three
criteria: money left (20%), gained reputation (40%) and value of the works possessed (40%).
● the ultimate prize, amounting to € 5,000, was divided proportionately among the players
according to the result of the last game.
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8. mario andrea valori
www.andreavalori.com
Preliminary results
● all simulations were tended homogeneous (differences within 5-8%);
● checks are carried out almost exclusively on the basis of the price of the item;
● controls decreased based on the alleged reputation of the seller;
● false eliminated from the game were less to 10%;
● private negotiations are more rapid in case of false;
● normally the false is not offered alone, unless it has a value very high or very low.;
● false tend to move much more quickly than the original;
● experts prefer not to declare the work as fake;
● often born alliances to sell falsified works; however, these chains differ in offering and
selling speed from normal transactions.
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