2. WEATHER
state of the atmosphere at a particular time and
place
elements: temperature, humidity, cloudiness,
precipitation, wind, and pressure
elements are organized into various weather
systems: monsoons, areas of high and low
pressure, thunderstorms, and tornadoes
4. LPA HPA
Tropical cyclone occurrence/passage
within the Philippine Area of
Responsibility during the 1948-2010
period.
Decadal changes in intense tropical cyclone occurrence in the three main islands in
the Philippines(1951-2000).
5. thunderstorms
rain cloud or clouds that
produce thunder and lightning
Formation:
warm/humid ground air rises
becomes cooler
water vapor in air
condenses
if warmer than surrounding
conditions, continue to rise
lightning = large charge difference
exists between the bottom of the
cloud and the ground
7. Climate (from Greek klimat, inclination or latitude)
long-term effect of the sun's radiation on earth's surface
and atmosphere
influenced by the atmosphere; by the ways in which it
and the ocean transport heat
for any given area on earth, not only the latitude must be
considered but also: elevation, terrain, distance from the
ocean, relation to mountain systems and lakes, and other
such influences
9. • long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather
patterns over periods of time (decades-millions of years)
• may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the
whole Earth
• global climate change: global warming or global cooling
• affects the limiting capacity of species: shown in the great
die-off 65 million years ago(late Cretaceous period) where
dinosaurs, large numbers of animals and plant species became
extinct due to sudden cooling
10. DRIVING FORCES AND PATTERNS IN CLIMATIC CHANGES
MILANKOVITCH ASTRONOMICAL THEORY
Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovitch
regular climatic fluctuations based on three variations:
1. Earth’s elliptical orbit (100,000-year cycle)
2. axis of rotation (40,000-year cycle)
3. axis wobbles (26,000-year period)
variability in sunlight distribution
Arctic Circle low amounts of summer radiation about once every
100,000 years glaciation
responsible for glaciers and ice sheets during the Pleistocene Epoch (1.8
million to 11,500 years before present) glacial and interglacial period
historical precedent : “little ice age”, Europe, 1440s = temperature
drops, fishes migrated away and settlers died in some settlements
11.
12. SOLAR ACTIVITY ATTRIBUTED TO SUNSPOTS
Sunspots - huge magnetic storms in darker regions on the
sun’s surface ; 11-year cycles
maximum sunspots: sun emits more energy
sunspot cycles indicator of overall brightness of the
sun; changes on cycles of a century ; have an influence
on climate
10% of the total effect that increasing levels of that
greenhouse gases have had on warming the atmosphere
to date
evidence : scientists pointed to periods in the 17th
century when hardly any sunspots had been observed
presumably reflecting spells of drought
sunspots reflected some kind of storminess on the Sun's
surface — violent activity that strongly affected the
Earth's magnetic field
might explain the ice ages
correlations between the sunspot cycle and rings in trees
showed the extreme sensitivity of the climate system to
small perturbations
13. • 1610 till around 1900 – 1950 , ave. terrestrial ground temps.
depend solely on solar magnetic field variations
• sun’s polar magnetic fields fluctuates = opposite polarity (known
as “heliosphere” extends billions of kms.beyond Pluto)
• solar field reversals referred to “current sheet” sprawling
surface jutting outward from the sun’s equator where the sun’s
slowly-rotating magnetic field induces an electrical current (small
but lots of it): the amperage flows through a region 10,000 km
thick and billions of kilometers wide
• entire heliosphere organized around this enormous sheet:
current sheet becomes very wavy; Earth dip in and out of the
current sheet=transitions from one side to another can stir up
stormy space weather around our planet
• increased ultraviolet radiation during higher solar activity might
affect climate by altering stratospheric ozone
Solar Magnetic Cycles
14.
15. • Moon moves 70% of the matter on the Earth’s
surface every day suggest that maybe, it affects
air, wind, and causes atmospheric tides
• climate models assume the effect is zero or close
to it
• atmospheric tides swirl around Earth standing
waves of abnormal air-pressure that slowly circle
the planet, once every 18 years
• if proven then key to understand the mysterious
Pacific ENSO pattern affecting the global climate
Shifting Angles of Moon Orbits
16. • eject dust, aerosols and gas into the atmosphere
= cool climate; the larger the volcano means
greater effects
• volcanic gas: sulfur dioxide = global cooling;
volcanic carbon dioxide = global warming
• Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991 cooled the climate
by at least 1°C
Volcanic Eruptions (tectonic climate change)
17.
18. EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATIONS ( ENSO)
EL NIÑO
•Spanish for “the child,” refers to the infant Jesus Christ; current
usually begins during the Christmas season
•increased of drier conditions
•climate disturbances:
sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Pacific are high :low
pressure in warmer waters, rising moisture
in the eastern Pacific, water is cold and air pressure is high : creating arid
conditions along coastal South America, but
trade winds blow from east to west, pushing sun-warmed waters westward
and exposing cold water in the east
droughts to the east, heavy rains to the west
• counterpart is La NiÑa = The Little Girl, sometimes El Viejo= anti-El NiÑo
19. When a high
pressure cell in the
standing wave lies
over the high
pressure summer
semi-stationary high,
the anticlockwise
circulation is
strengthened. This
increases the
prevailing trade
winds (which run
East to West across
that part of the
Pacific). This sets up
La Nina type
conditions.
20. Fact : Without natural
greenhouse effect, Earth’s
climate is about 33°C
cooler—too cold for most
living organisms to survive.
THE GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
certain gases in atmosphere
trap heat emitted from Earth’s
surface = insulating and
warming the planet
warmed Earth for over 4
billion years
Industrial Revolution:1700s
humans burn fossil fuels
(coal, oil, and natural gas),
clearing land for agriculture /
settlements, releases same
gases that trap heat in the
atmosphere: carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide
(risen higher than at any time
in at least the last 650,000
year)
0.74 °C increase in
global mean
temperature during
the last 150 years
- IPCC REPORT, 2011
21. prolonged drought / increased
flooding in some world’s leading
agricultural regions
affect weather patterns
global warming( an increase in Earth’s
surface temperature of about
0.6°C over the last 100 years)
Earth’s climate warmer than it would naturally
trap more heat near Earth’s surface
gases build up
Observed mean annual minimum
temperature anomalies in the Philippines
during the 1951-2010 period (compared
with 1971-2000 mean values).
22. interaction between
sunlight and the layer of
greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere
sunlight includes visible
light, infrared light, gamma
rays, X rays, and ultraviolet
light
some 25 % of the radiant
energy is reflected back
into space by clouds and
other atmospheric particles
about 20 % absorbed in the
atmosphere: Sun’s
ultraviolet radiation is
23. Greenhouse Gases
refers to gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect
by absorbing infrared radiation (heat)
occur naturally or manufactured
most abundant naturally occurring is water vapor
carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide
human-made chemicals as greenhouse gases :
chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons
(HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and
perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
1700s: human activities have increased the levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
24. WATER VAPOR
most common greenhouse gas in the
atmosphere
60-70 % of natural greenhouse effect
human activities increase greenhouse
gases: evaporation of oceans, lakes, and
rivers, evapotranspiration increase
and raise the amount of water vapor in
the atmosphere
25. CARBON DIOXIDE
circulates in environment thru natural processes: carbon cycle
volcanic eruptions ,decay of plant/animal matter release CO2
into the atmosphere.
in respiration: animals digest to release the energy required to
build and maintain cellular activity
byproduct of respiration: formation ofCO2
oceans, lakes, rivers absorb CO2 from atmosphere
photosynthesis: plants collect CO2 use it to make their own
food incorporating carbon into new plant tissue releasing
oxygen to the environment as a byproduct
26. METHANE
natural processes produce methane:
natural gas
released thru:
decomposition of carbon-containing
substances found in oxygen-free
environments, such as wastes in
landfills
ruminating animals: cattle , sheep
belch methane as a byproduct of
digestion
microorganisms in damp soils: rice
fields, break down organic matter
emitted: coal mining,
production/transport of other fossil
fuels
others: wetlands, termites, oceans
27. NITROUS OXIDE
released by burning of fossil fuels,
automobile exhaust
farmers use nitrogen-containing fertilizers to
provide nutrients to their crops
when these fertilizers break down in the soil,
they emit nitrous oxide into the air
plowing fields also releases nitrous oxide
28. OZONE
natural and human-made
ozone in upper atmosphere :ozone
layer shields life on Earth from
the harmful ultraviolet radiation
ozone in lower atmosphere : smog
severe type of air pollution
ozone in the lower atmosphere
tends to be limited to industrialized
regions
29. FLUORINATED COMPOUNDS
most potent GHGs emitted produced by human activities
main categories: CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
used in a variety of manufacturing processes
one molecule =thousand times effective trapping heat than a
single molecule CO2
long atmospheric lifetime, high global warming potential,
depletes O3
affect the climate for many decades or centuries
UVB radiation can cause skin cancer, linked to cataracts of
the eye, suppression of immune system
at risk from UVB : shellfishes, fishes, amphibians,
phytoplankton, microscopic organisms (foundation of aquatic
food webs)
30. drift up to the stratosphere
break down by ultraviolet radiation
release components
depletes ozone layer
ozone layer thins
more UVB reaches Earth’s
surface
31. CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS (CFCs)
stable, nonflammable, noncorrosive, nontoxic, inexpensive
developed in 1920s
refrigerants: refrigerators, freezers, air conditioners, heat pumps,
propellants: aerosols and medical inhalers
insulating foams: packaging materials, furniture, bedding, and car seats
cleaning agents: electronic circuit boards, metal parts, and dry cleaning
processes
1 Cl atom destroy 100,000 ozone molecules
Since 1992, there has been a steady decline in the total consumption of
ODS. Serious efforts have led to the total phaseout of CFC 113, 114 and 115
as of 1999. The POD, through the NCPP Project, has aimed to phase out the
remaining consumption of CFCs available locally. Importation of CFC-11 has
been banned in 2005. The importation of CFC-12 is likewise set to be totally
phasedout by 2010 (zero importation of CFCs).
32. HYDROFLUOROCARBONS (HFCs)
alternative to ozone damaging CFCs in
refrigeration systems
three main HFCs are HFC-23, HFC-134a
and HFC152a, with HFC-134a being the
most widely used refrigerant.
HFC-134a have risen massively; an
atmospheric lifetime of about 14 years
33. HYDROCHLOROFLUOROCARBON
s (HCFCs)
close to CFCs, but including 1 or more H atoms
gases/liquids, very volatile, fairly stable,
unreactive, nonpolar liquids
similar properties to HBFCs, Halons HCFCs
volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
replaced CFCs, now used in refrigerators, freezers and
air conditioning systems, insulative foams
phased out in developed countries
amounts emitted relatively small but powerful warming
effect
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) – “Hydrocarbon compounds that
have low boiling points, usually less than 100ºC, and therefore evaporate
readily. Some are gases at room temperature. Propane, benzene, and
other components of gasoline are all volatile organic compounds.” - Art,
1993
34. PERFLUORINATED COMPOUNDS (PFCs)
make products stain, grease, and water resistant, non-stick , stain-
repellant
uses: paper food containers like microwave popcorn bags, fast food
wrappers
considered persistent organic pollutants (POPs)
resist chemical, biological, and photolytic degradation in the environment
biomagnify in the food chain; bioaccumulate in animal and human
tissues
linked to: Thyroid dysfunction, Preeclampsia, Risk of high cholesterol,
Risk of cancer, Liver dysfunction, Immunotoxicity, Endocrine disruption,
Developmental delays, Fertility issues
present in: Teflon, Scotchguard, carpets, clothing, car interiors,
furnitures, drinking water thru leaching
35. SULFUR HEXAFLUORIDE (SF6)
24,000 times the warming effect as an equal amount of
carbon dioxide
inorganic, colorless, odorless, non-flammable gas
use : electrical industry as a gaseous dielectric medium
for various voltage circuit breakers, switchgear and
other electrical equipment, often replacing oil filled
circuit breakers (OCBs) that can contain harmful PCBs
36. Other factors in Greenhouse Effect
Aerosols
airborne particles,absorb, scatter, reflect radiation back
into space
examples: clouds, windblown dust, and particles traced
to erupting volcanoes
not considered heat-trapping GHGs but affect heat
transfer radiated from Earth to space
light-colored aerosols = cooling effect, dark aerosols =
soot contribute to warming
37. INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Increase in:
Tropospheric temperature
Humidity
Temperature over oceans
Sea surface temperature
Sea level
Ocean heat content
Temperature over land
Decrease in:
Sea ice
Glaciers
Snow cover
39. ARMM- temperature = (27.6 °C +1.0 °C) = 28.6 °C;
rainfall = (225.3+14.2)mm or 239.5mm;
number of days with Tmax > 35 °C 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) = 3,382;
number of dry days in Cotabato City during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020)
= 5,471
increase in annual mean temperature by 0.57 °C;
trends of tropical cyclone occurrence/passage within the so-
called Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) show that an
average of 20 tropical cyclones form and/or cross the PAR
per year with strong multi-decadal variability
trends of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily
rainfall indicate increase in number of hot days but decrease
of cool nights, and those of rainfall are not clear, both in
magnitude and direction with very little spatial coherence
40. Current and projected
number of dry days in
the Philippines in 2020
and 2050 under mid-
range scenario.
Current and projected
extreme rainfall in the
Philippines in 2020 and 2050
under mid-range scenario.