17. 3 Successful Fixed Income Platforms – Focus on both strategy + execution Strategy Asset class and risk / return profiles Inflationary risk Credit analysis Systematic market anomalies Tax efficiency Yield curve strategy = 80% Asset Allocation Execution Implied forward rates New issue bias Two sided pricing For secondary = 20% Asset Acquisition
18. 4 Fixed Income Risk – Strategic View Today’s fixed income market currently under prices inflationary risk and over prices credit spreads and legislative tax risk Overweight TIPS Overweight Munis Underweight Nominal Government Bonds
19. 5 Sample Fixed Income Portfolio – Conservative Allocation
20. Muni Bonds – Credit Ratings vs. Corporate Bonds Ratings agencies use a double standard in rating municipal bond debt The rating agencies own studies show governmental, or municipal, issuers default much less than corporate issuers. Municipal bonds rated Baa by Moody’s have experienced a default rate of only 0.13 percent, while corporate bonds rated Aaa by Moody’s have defaulted at four times that rate, or 0.52 percent. Corporate bonds rated AAA by S&P have defaulted at almost twice the rate of municipal bonds rated BBB (0.60 percent and 0.32 percent, respectively). Of all general obligation municipal bonds rated by Moody’s between 1970 and 2006, only one issuer defaulted. For a tax-backed bond rated BBB or better by S&P, the likelihood of default over a 20-year period is only 0.03 percent.
21. The steepness of the municipal curve implies a 70bps increase in 1 year municipal rates per year over the next 5 years Muni Bonds – Term Structure
24. Breakevens on Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds (TIPS) show market under pricing inflation risk 10 TIPS tend to be less volatile than nominal bonds due to their adjustment to inflation expectations Breakeven rates today imply a average of 2% inflation rate over the next 10 years
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26. ETFs don’t participate in new issue market (-20bps)
27. Bond ‘indexing’ not applicable to efficient markets in same way as equities+ETFs have better liquidly on exit from position (+.5%)
28. 12 Fixed Income Platform Execution – The wire house v. Atlas model Wire House Model Atlas Model Syndicate Desk New Issue Dealer Inventory Client Account $100 $100 Management Fee $101 Atlas Bond Trader “Sales credit” $103 Broker $103 + commission Client
34. Atlas manages its portfolios in a passive, index based manner Portfolios are constructed using a market capitalization based index methodology Portfolio turnover is low Atlas adds value beyond index returns by capturing persistent market anomalies Value over Growth Momentum Atlas believes that transactions costs have a large impact on performance over time Commissions are a relatively small portion of costs Market impact is a larger portion Tax impacts are the highest cost and almost completely ignored by most equity managers because performance is reported pre tax Atlas Capital Core Equity Strategy 18 Source: Standard and Poor’s SPIVA study