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Features
BIG DATA
Is the property sector
making the most
of big data?.................................2
GAME CHANGER:
THE 2015 INSURANCE ACT
A special feature by guest
contributor John Hurrell,
CEO of AIRMIC.......................4
EXTREME WEATHER
AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Building resilience
around natural hazards
and climate change..................6
Q&A WITH JON LOVELL
OF HILLBREAK
How sustainability cannot
be an after-thought.................11
Plus other articles
and insights
Real Estate
Risk Insights
Winter 2015www.willis.co.uk
Big data refers to computer analysis of
data sets too large for the human mind
to process. Trends and patterns, which
computer algorithms spot, can offer
businesses powerful insight allowing them
to be more efficient, to better understand
their customers or spot trends they may
otherwise have missed. By making better
decisions, companies can reduce costs,
risks and improve their efficiency.
A variety of industries have been tapping into
big data for years. Insurers are able to study data
to model the likelihood of claims arising from
different scenarios, such as extreme weather.
City traders crunch numbers in real time to
buy and sell investments through largely
automated systems.
The world of real estate is clearly less fast-
moving than equities. Yet the sector actually
has a big data machine that was in use decades
before music streaming or online insurance
businesses became popular.
Big data: Is the property sector
making the most of it?
IPD, the benchmarking and analytics firm formerly known as Investment
Property Databank, crunches property rent, value and management
cost data, allowing investors to compare their performance against
a benchmark. While it is routinely used by major investors and fund
managers, it does not cover the entire market. Properties in the mid and
low end – not the kind typically held by the major funds – are excluded,
meaning there is little oversight of many riskier areas of the market.
Unlike equities or commodities, property is a far more complex asset.
The occupier can make a huge impact on returns, so understanding their
business performance versus their sector can also be crucial.
With rules over energy efficiency tightening over the next two years,
better understanding a building’s energy performance when occupied
will also be key for investors and lenders. For those exposed to hundreds
of properties, being able to slice and dice data is a much better way to
properly understand the diversity of risk across their portfolio.
The benefits of big data
By lagging behind in adopting big data, property companies could be
in danger of exposing themselves to potential risks. In a recent survey
of 300 real estate managers, Canadian real estate advisory firm Altus
Group, found that $11 trillion of real estate assets are being managed
by manually inputted spread-sheets.
The errors and risks possibly arising from this state of affairs are
numerous, ranging from simple clerical mistakes to rampant, criminal
abuse by employees. But property firms and investors can harness big
data to give profounder insights into the risks their business may face.
2 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
Generating insights
Investors in real estate, such as fund managers and private equity
houses, will have large portfolios that they may not be tracking
at a granular level.
Big data allows asset managers to see if their portfolio has the
right mix of exposure to different risks and indeed, different assets.
Real estate is a complex asset that can play a variety of roles in a
portfolio, such as adding a defensive element or offering index-linked
income to counterweight more volatile elements of a multi-asset
portfolio. Crucially, rigorous analysis can help ensure investors
are hitting a particular asset class at the optimal opportunity.
The data can also help firms engage with and understand their
regulatory risk. With the minimum energy efficiency standards
(MEES) soon set to be introduced in Europe, property managers will
need to understand exactly how large their risk of being hit by fines is
for not meeting the standards. By using big data they can easily track
what percentage of their portfolio needs to be brought up to the new
standards, and which properties have to be prioritised.
Smart buildings
Big data also enables smart buildings. By using a variety of sensors, smart
buildings can merge a variety of normally independent operating systems
– from heating to lighting – to maximise efficiency and performance.
Data captured across this broad spectrum can also give insights across
the building’s entire lifecycle, from conception and construction,
through tenancy and to demolition.
Insights about whether space is being under utilised can be gleaned from
this, including tracking the parts of an office being occupied via the use
of sensors. This can identify idle space that could be better made use of.
By using big data to shine a light on trends like this, a firm can rationalise
its costs. Fundamentally, this could be as simple as making sure the
building’s main lights are switched off once everyone has left.
Macro vs Micro
Big data can be used at both the macro and
micro level. Particularly for micro applications,
the real benefit is that it can be used in real time,
and so can inform business decisions today,
not tomorrow.
Appraisers would find value in adopting big
data in this way. The insights gleaned from it
can find what price points the market is at -
whether properties are selling above average
or below average. Given that there are so many
data sources for appraisers, using it to condense
them not only saves time, it allows more accurate
thought to be given to the state of the market.
Managing data risk
Properly harnessing big data also involves
having strict rules in place around its use.
Training staff in proper data handling
procedures is vital, as is ensuring that any
IT system has adequate safeguards in place
to prevent either internal or external theft.
While not using big data is a risk, being hacked
and losing that information is also a danger that
is worth protecting against. But with the correct
infrastructure in place, it can give companies
a holistic understanding of their business,
help reduce risk and ensure they’re maximising
their efficiencies.
For more information, please contact:
Paul Turnbull
Head of Client Services, Real Estate Practice
+44 (0)20 3124 6253
turnbullp@willis.com
Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 3
“Training staff in proper data handling
procedures is vital, as is ensuring that any
IT system has adequate safeguards in place
to prevent either internal or external theft.”
A game changer:
The2015InsuranceAct
AspecialfeaturebyourguestcontributorJohnHurrell,CEO,AIRMIC
The 2015 Insurance Act has been years in the making and the
end product is a fantastic result for all in the market. Most
importantly, it creates a new legal framework for commercial
insurance that will give policyholders added protection. But for
all parties – buyer, seller and broker – there is a lot of work still to
be done to ensure a smooth transition when the changes come into
force in August next year.
Why is it so important? Under the current out-of-date legal framework,
many policyholders are frustrated that they do not have reasonable
certainty that policies will pay out if needed. This is largely because
insurers have draconian powers to avoid paying large claims for trivial
or irrelevant reasons.
As many insurance buyers will know from first-hand experience, the use
of basis clauses and warranties can mean that if a company makes an
innocent but trivial mistake, like the misspelling of a name, their insurer
is legally entitled to void the policy. Similarly, claims may be refused
because the buyer has failed to provide all material information at the
time of purchase – even when it had not been requested by the insurer.
It would only be fair to say that the old system works most of the time.
Generally speaking insurers will pay out whenever they think their client
has acted in good faith, but there is no guarantee that this will happen.
And what is the point of insurance if it does not give you total confidence
that it will support you in your moment of need?
SMEs are especially vulnerable to insurers who may choose to exploit
loopholes in the law since they have less buying power and therefore less
clout with insurers and probably do not have the same close relations
with their underwriters as the large multi-national companies.
The Act is therefore a game-changer. When it comes into force next
year it will protect any policyholder who acts in good faith but may have
overlooked some technicality. It will also bring the UK into line with
most other markets.
4 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
SPECIAL FEATURE
By and large, the insurance market has been positive and responsive.
They have recognised that the UK is out of step with the rest of the
world and the provisions of the current regime under the 1906 Act
are indefensible. Certain parts of the London specialty market have
been resistant to some of the changes but now that the Act is law,
I’m expecting the market to embrace it with enthusiasm. Indeed,
although underwriters have until next August, many large insurers
are already underwriting according to the terms of the new law.
Although the reform is overwhelmingly good news for policyholders, there
are obligations for insurance buyers as well as underwriters. For example,
the Act makes clear that insurance buyers will have a duty to disclose
“every material circumstances they know or ought to know”, and ensure
the information is presented in a “clear and accessible” manner.
Indeed, it is important to stress that the new legal framework will
still require commercial insurance buyers to behave in a professional,
thorough manner and to provide accurate information. That means
going through the policy line-by-line with your professional advisers
and making sure that it will do what you want. Perhaps not the most
exciting job in the world, but it could save you a lot of disappointment.
To ensure they are in the best position to take advantage of the changes,
Airmic is urging all insurance managers to make careful preparations
well before the law takes effect, and to talk to their brokers and
underwriters as soon as possible.
Ensuring a smooth transition will require market-wide cooperation.
The Act represents huge change and with any change there is
uncertainty and ambiguity. Buyers, brokers and underwriters need
to have open and frank discussions about how they are interpreting
wordings, what their expectations are from the various parties and
how they expect market norms to evolve.
For example, policyholders need to check that their insurers are
comfortable with their interpretation of what constitutes fair
presentation of risk under the new law, while insurers should be asking
what more they can do to share their views on what they consider
acceptable. All sides of the market will need to ask themselves what
is an acceptable process for a policyholder to undertake to satisfy a
“reasonable search”.
We are now less than 12 months away and it’s better to have conversations
with brokers and underwriters now rather than as the deadline
approaches. This will be vital to ensure a successful transition for all.
The 2015 Insurance Act
There are three core changes that will come
into force in August 2016:
Fair presentation of risk
The bill amends the duty on business
policyholders to disclose risk information to
insurers before entering into an insurance
contract, introducing a duty of ‘fair
presentation’ of the risk.
The new law also provides proportionate
remedies in cases where the duty of fair
presentation has been breached. For example,
if the breach was accidental but the insurer
would have entered into the contract in full
anyway, the insurer still has to pay out in
full. However, if the insurer would have still
entered the contract but on different terms,
the insurer may proportionately reduce the
amount to be paid on a claim. If the breach is
deemed reckless or deliberate, the insurer can
avoid the contract and keep the premium.
Warranties
The bill abolishes “basis of the contract”
clauses, which have the effect of converting
pre-contractual information supplied to
insurers into warranties without further
discussion. It also provides that the insurer’s
liability should be suspended, rather than
discharged entirely, in the event of a breach
of warranty.
The new law also prevents an insurer from
relying on non-compliance with a warranty as
grounds for avoiding liability for a loss of an
entirely different kind than that envisaged by
the warranty. For example, it would no longer
be viable to avoid paying a claim for fire damage
simply because the burglar alarm was not
switched on as the two are clearly unrelated.
Fraudulent claims
The bill provides the insurer with clear,
robust remedies when a policyholder submits
a fraudulent claim.
“Generally speaking insurers will pay out
whenever they think their client has acted
in good faith, but there is no guarantee that
this will happen.”
Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 5
i
A changing climate and rapidly growing
exposure to natural catastrophes presents
the world with an unprecedented challenge.
Natural events such as floods and windstorms
have caused widespread damage to properties
across Europe over the last few decades.
Impacted further through the effects of climate
change and globalised economies, these losses
are likely to increase over time. Such trends
can already be seen when we look at economic
and insured losses as a result of natural disasters
over the last 60 years.
From a pre-loss perspective we can consider
the ways in which real estate owners and
occupiers can help identify highly exposed
facilities, estimate likely losses, ensure adequate
insurance cover is in place and derive solutions
to mitigate future risks.
Building Resilience
around Natural Hazards
and Climate Change
Extreme weather events
Real estate values are being increasingly threatened by extreme weather
events, such as storms, hail, flooding, droughts, tropical cyclones, and
landslides. The risk of flooding has always been present for buildings
close to rivers or coastlines. We also see an increase in flood risks for real
estate portfolios caused by a change in governmental planning strategies
and policies. For example, in the UK, land on a flood plain may now be
considered for new real estate developments given the pressure to provide
new living space in a country with a very high population density.
In addition, climate change as a direct consequence of global warming is
anticipated to increase the future frequency and severity of flooding and
storms (Foresight, 2004; Stern, 2006; IPCC 2013). Flooding can result
from a number of different causes – heavy rain, river, and coastal flooding
all having the potential to result in damage to buildings and associated
contents. It has, for example, been reported that the number of extreme
weather events has doubled globally since the 1980s to an average of over
800 events per year during the past decade. It has been reported that
the monetary losses relating to real estate properties and infrastructure
systems impacted from severe weather events have tripled globally during
the past decade, with direct losses reported from the insurance markets as
amounting to USD150 billion (EUR109.5 billion) per year.
6 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 7
This would imply there’s a need to have a greater
awareness and understanding of the broader
impact and consequential effects these events can
have on a real estate portfolio so that corporation-
wide they are treated as a strategic issue.
In this context, we are frequently asked by
real estate clients about whether a severe 1:100
year return period flood or windstorm event
will be more frequent in the not too distant
future and what steps can be taken to make the
property portfolio more resilient against these
severe events.
New analytical tools
Today tools and processes exist to help real
estate owners and occupiers identify climate
related risks such as flooding, to the extent that
they gain a reasonable understanding of the
potential losses to a given portfolio and look
at solutions to help them make more informed
decisions around their risk management
needs, whether that is to set risk retention
and insurance limits or to aid risk mitigation
strategies and improve operational resilience.
This can be achieved through the use of
appropriate geospatial mapping techniques to
visualise the properties that may be in or out of
a specific flood zone, coupled with probabilistic
modelling to determine the expected losses the
portfolio could suffer when considering a wide
range of possible flood events that could occur.
Such models are already widely used and have
been for several years within the insurance
market to assist with risk transfer decisions.
They can also help identify which specific properties within a real estate
portfolio are actually driving the overall portfolio exposure, for example
on an average annual loss (AAL) basis.
Once individual sites have been identified these may further benefit from
a ‘deeper-dive’ site inspection and risk assessment to help uncover local
vulnerabilities, estimate the property damage and business interruption
(loss of rent) losses in more depth and provide recommendations to help
reduce future risks at the site.
The resilience of a facility to respond to a natural catastrophe will also
come down to having appropriate business continuity and emergency
response plans in place to minimise the potential downtime from a
major flood or storm and safeguard the wellbeing of occupiers.
Willis uses all of the above approaches to advise clients and to assist
in the pre-loss evaluation and risk management strategies of major
real estate portfolios in Europe and further afield.
For more information, please contact:
Marc Lehmann
Lead Partner, Strategic Risk Consulting
+44 (0)20 3124 6697
marc.lehmann@willis.com
“It has been reported that the monetary
losses relating to real estate properties and
infrastructure systems impacted from severe
weather events have tripled globally during
the past decade, with direct losses reported
from the insurance markets as amounting to
USD150 billion (EUR109.5 billion) per year.”
THE RISK OF SANCTIONS
Sanctions are punitive measures imposed on a country by foreign
governments. They can entail trading embargoes as well as freezing
the assets of certain individuals or companies. Any business that
has dealings with a sanctioned country risks being affected.
International sanctions have the ability to take even the most risk aware
by surprise.
For example, at the start of 2014, no one would have foreseen sanctions
being imposed against Russia. But, after unrest in the Russia-Ukrainian
area began in late February, the US, Canada and the European Union
decided to impose sanctions in March against Russia. Anybody with
investment in, or from, Russia would have then had to very quickly judge
how much risk the sanctions exposed them to. This would involve checking
whether any assets are connected to the sanctions, which could include
Russian investors named under the sanctions with links to investments.
Real estate risks
Real estate focused businesses should still ensure adequate provisions
as the unpredictability of sanctions make it vital to be prepared. For
developers and investors, financial sanctions are the most likely sanction
that will affect them, as property deals are unlikely to be affected by
trade sanctions concerned with the flow of commodities.
Financial sanctions generally entail asset-freeze measures affecting the
provision of funds and economic resources to and from political regimes
or certain individuals.
The risk property firms face is that they have either received investment
from, or have invested in, the country under sanctions. This could involve
a sanctioned investor trying to buy up expensive flats in Knightsbridge,
or receiving funds from an off-shore trust fund that has links to a company
or individual named under sanctions.
How much a real estate investor or developer is affected by these
measures is largely dependent on which jurisdiction they are doing
business in.
Broad sanctions have been imposed against certain countries such as
Iran, Sudan and Syria. Broad sanctions effectively target entire countries
and industries therefore making it very difficult to conduct business
within these areas.
However, the risks are lowered once these types of countries are
removed from the equation. With the introduction of smart sanctions
in the early 1990s, it has been possible to target specific individuals or
companies. From a policy perspective, this is an attempt by the West to
reduce any collateral damage sanctions may have outside the country.
8 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 9
Smart sanctions
In Egypt for example, where smart sanctions
are imposed, only around 20 people are subject
to asset freeze sanctions. Therefore unless a
property investor is actively doing business with
or dealing with funds or economic resources
which belong to, or which are owned, held or
controlled by one of these individuals, their
risk of exposure is low.
Despite smart sanctions looking to reduce any
unwarranted damages, the risk of being affected
still remains if any ties to countries under them
are present. In September 2014, one of Turkey’s
best known and largest banks, Denizbank SA, had
its routine transactions suddenly stopped due
to the Russian sanctions because its owner is a
Russian company. After intensive lobbying, the
US Treasury granted an exemption for the bank.
This example reinforces the fact that due
diligence should be carried out on any
transaction or investment. It is crucial to carry
out extensive background checks into any joint
venture partners before concluding any deal
or investment to calibrate whether they pose
a sanctions related risk to your business.
An example of this could be that a property
firm receives investment from a Russian backer
to invest in prime property in west London.
A thorough scouring of the prospective investor
should be carried out to ensure that the investor
is not one of or has links to the individuals or
companies targeted under financial sanctions.
Knowing who your clients are is vital to ensure
that sanctions do not affect your business.
“For investors or developers, a sudden
imposition of sanctions could mean that
they have to postpone plans for investment
or development in a jurisdiction. In this way,
sanctions can represent an opportunity cost
for businesses.”
New business
Sanctions can also come into play where businesses are able to start new
ventures, investments or developments. For example, it would be very
unlikely that Willis would be able to offer any type of insurance cover
for a new investment, including acquisition or extension of ownership
of real estate and entities located in Crimea and Sevastopol.
For investors or developers, a sudden imposition of sanctions could
mean that they have to postpone plans for investment or development in
a jurisdiction. In this way, sanctions can represent an opportunity cost
for businesses.
DIRECTORS AND ULTIMATE BENEFICIAL OWNERS
It is also important to conduct ‘know your client’ checks on the directors
of the company you are intending to do business with, along with their
ultimate beneficial owners. This is because a company that is owned
50 percent or more by a sanctioned person or entity, even if the company
itself is not sanctioned, results in sanctions status of the designate
party passing indirectly to the non-sanctioned company. Another risk
is if a sanctioned director exercises de facto control over the company
in question. If this threshold is met the sanctions status of the director
can pass indirectly to the company rendering it designated as well.
Whilst the threat of sanctions may not be immediate for property firms
and investors, especially compared to other industries, it is important
to ensure that due diligence is carried out prior to any deal to avert
any potential risk. Businesses should also be aware of the macro
political environment, and define the limits of their risk appetite
before embarking on any new line of business.
For more information, please contact:
Mark Noble
Head of Sales, Real Estate Practice
+44 (0)20 3124 8509
mark.noble@willis.com
10 Real Estate Risk Insights Spring 2015
It is easy perhaps to consider political risk only in the context of
far-flung, less economically developed nations. Mining giant Rio Tinto
experienced multiple delays waiting to receive approval from the
Mongolian government for a roughly USD4 billion expansion of the
Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. These delays meant postponing agreed
financing, which led to the risk that the project would never complete.
But political risk is also a threat here in the UK. The recent shifts in the
political landscape have understandably made many businesses nervous
about increased political risk in the country.
Jeremy Corbyn’s unlikely ascent to the Labour leadership, the rise of the
SNP in Scotland and the threat of Britain leaving the European Union,
all make the UK’s political future more uncertain and unclear than it has
ever been. For build to rent developers and their institutional investors,
UK political risk boils down to two distinct arenas: central government
policy and local politics.
Central and local government
Decisions made at a central level set the tone for decisions made further
down the line, and can lead to significant reforms. For build to rent
developers and investors, there are several crucial policy areas that
central government can affect.
Changes to tax legislation, such as the stamp duty reforms on the bulk
purchase of rented units have encouraged large investors. A reversal of
this policy could see investor appetite reduce for build to rent schemes.
The same applies to recent subsidies, such as the Housing and
Communities Agency’s build to rent fund, where the government shares
the risk and bridges finance for these schemes. This has been popular
with large institutions looking to enter the sector. Just as ‘help to buy’
is a mortgage subsidy scheme for people with a small deposit, such
schemes are created to spike up demand from buyers and investors and
can be scrapped at short notice.
Left-wing politicians also tend to push for higher land taxes, which would
deter investment as developments can become less fiscally feasible. At the
local level, it is the councils that have the control. However, they are often
influenced by central government policy. With Corbyn calling for more
affordable housing, the risk is that sympathetic councils will follow suit,
making schemes unviable, with development eventually grinding to a halt.
Mayors and their powers
Directly elected mayors, such as in London, have
devolved powers that include setting budgets,
overseeing major projects and directing policy.
For London, and as will be the case for
Manchester when the Mayor is elected in 2017,
those powers extend to dictating the pace and
types of housing development. Other cities, such
as Sheffield, are looking to go down a similar
path of devolution of power. The motivation
for Sheffield is the potential control of roughly
GBP900 million in central government money
over the next 30 years.
In London, the policies of Labour mayoral
nominee Sadiq Khan, MP for Tooting, show
little appreciation of the reality of the London
housing market. One of Khan’s policy aims is
to introduce a London living rent, which would
link rents to a third of average incomes. He also
wants the mayor to have the power to freeze
private sector rents. With London a prime target
for professionally developed and managed
rental schemes, the risk of a Khan victory must
be taken into any business case assumptions.
Given that developers of the private rented
sector (PRS) and their financial backers will
have made certain financial assumptions based
on rents, any potential rent cap – which Corbyn
is also in favour of – is a risk that they cannot
ignore. Thankfully, most economists across the
political spectrum consider rent controls to be
misguided for the simple fact that they end up
reducing available housing stock.
Largely speaking, the main political risk factors
for developers are local planning and potentially
punitive taxes on land, which the left often
threaten. For the institutional funded rental
sector, the major threat is of a Khan and Corbyn
rent control regime, or punitive affordable housing
requirements which take no notice of the fact that
building for rent is not like building for sale.
But with the UK having 9 million renters –
a figure that continues to rise – there is hope
that the arguments for a better rental sector
will be listened to by those in power.
Edward Brown is an Account Director
within Willis’ Real Estate Practice.
The risk of
the unexpected
byEdwardBrown
10 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
OPINION
QAwith
Jon Lovell, Co-Founder,
Hillbreak
Hillbreak was founded in 2015 to advise
and train businesses and their people, as
well as policy-makers, on the risks and
value creation opportunities to be found
in effectively addressing environmental,
social and governance issues. Before
launching Hillbreak, founders Jon Lovell
and Miles Keeping led professional
service firm Deloitte’s global and UK
real estate sustainability practice
What risks does sustainability pose
to real estate?
Environmental, Social  Governance (ESG)
issues introduce a multitude of risks throughout
the entire real estate cycle. The performance
of real estate assets, in both investment and
occupational terms, is threatened by issues
ranging from climate change to resource
scarcity, and from technology disruption to
urban demographic shifts.
Are investors demanding more from
real estate investment managers?
There’s no question that investors are turning the
screws on their fund and investment managers,
especially those with a long-term view. There is
a clear expectation now that fund managers, and
indeed corporate owners, are more transparent
about their non-financial performance.
A good number of investors are also probing
for reassurances that relevant risks are being
systematically identified and addressed.
How aware should investors and
developers be about climate change?
The financial costs already arising from extreme
weather events, which are increasing materially
as a result of climate change, are quite staggering.
Recent Urban Land Institute research has found
that over the last 10 years, direct monies lost on
real estate and infrastructure has tripled, with
losses now standing at about USD150 billion a year.
Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 11
That’s saying nothing for the indirect costs to business and communities,
which dwarf those that are measured. Of course, the effects of climate
change extend far beyond damage and disruption from extreme events.
As climates change, the function of many buildings, including the cost
of running them and the comfort and well-being of people using them,
will become undermined. Rates of depreciation and obsolescence will
almost certainly accelerate. Make up your own mind on whether that’s
something to be aware of!
How much of the risk generated by sustainability
is linked to regulation?
Despite retraction in some areas, regulations are tightening and will
continue to do so. As stricter new standards come in, the gap in performance
between newer stock and older stock should widen. In my view though,
regulation per se is not the real risk. It’s the uncertainty, volatility and
inadequate enforcement of regulation which causes problems for the
market. There is, without question, a need for governments to better
manage policy succession and delivery.
But Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES),
in particular, is a concern for many?
Certainly, MEES, which kicks in from 2018, is a really important one to
get ready for; as things stand, nearly a fifth of buildings with an Energy
Performance Certificate rating fall below the minimum threshold.
The fundamentals of the regulation are pretty clear, but how it will be
implemented and interface with certain property dynamics is less so.
Guidance is needed from the government urgently as MEES is impacting
on fund strategies, transactions and asset plans now. Without much time
to plan that leaves businesses facing avoidable opportunity costs.
What steps should a company be taking to reduce
its sustainability risks?
That’s a big question, and will depend on the circumstances of each
and every organisation. There are some key ‘base’ ingredients though:
executive leadership, internal education, stakeholder engagement,
systematic risk assessment etc. We’ve helped many organisations to reduce
risks, create value and optimise the opex and capex balance, ensuring that
they and their stakeholders are more resilient and profitable.
We have noticed that some of our real estate clients might have research
teams looking at global mega-trends to inform their investment
strategies, whilst sustainability teams are looking at the performance
and resilience of their standing portfolios. These are not always joined
up as effectively as they could be, and that would be something to look at.
This Real Estate Risk Insights publication offers a general
overview of its subject matter. It does not necessarily address
every aspect of its subject or every product available in the
market. It is not intended to be, and should not be, used to replace
specific advice relating to individual situations and we do not
offer, and this should not be seen as, legal, accounting or tax
advice. If you intend to take any action or make any decision
on the basis of the content of this publication you should first
seek specific advice from an appropriate professional. Some of
the information in this publication may be compiled from third
party sources we consider to be reliable, however we do not
guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such.
The information given in this publication is believed to be
accurate at the time of publication shown at the front of this
document. This information may have subsequently changed
or have been superseded, and should not be relied upon to be
accurate or suitable after this date. The views expressed are not
necessarily those of the Willis Group. Copyright Willis Limited
2015. All rights reserved.
Willis Real Estate Practice is a trading name of Willis Limited,
Registered number: 181116 England and Wales. Registered
address: 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ. A Lloyd’s Broker.
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
for its general insurance mediation activities only.
FP1964 14845/10/15
ABOUT US
Willis is one of the UK’s leading insurance
and risk advisers. We have offices throughout
the UK and over 400 offices worldwide, with
regional teams located close to our clients.
Our Real Estate Practice retains one of
the largest teams dedicated to serving the
insurance and risk management needs of
the property sector in the UK. We arrange
insurance for property values exceeding
ÂŁ100 billion and place ÂŁ100 million of
premium into the market.
Our depth of understanding and insight into how
organisations in the property sector create and
maintain value allows us to provide innovative
solutions in the following specialist areas:
construction, legal indemnities, environmental
liabilities, transactional liabilities and the
delivery of service across Europe.
CONTACT US
We would love to hear what you think about
Real Estate Risk Insights. If you have any
colleagues who would like to subscribe to
future editions of the newsletter, please get
in touch.
	 +44 (0)20 3124 6330
	rep@willis.com
	www.willis.co.uk
The past few years has seen a resurgence of activity in the real
estate sector. With equity markets continuing to come under
pressure, UK property is still seen as a safe haven for investors.
The stability of the legal, economic and political environment
provides a welcoming marketplace for investment and this
continues to push the market forward.
It was only seven to eight years ago, however, that we saw the property
market fall following the credit crunch; boom and bust was said to
have been driven out of the economy yet the amount of litigation that
followed the property fall was considerable. Claims against surveyors,
property managers and lawyers were frequent and although the number
of claims has reduced in the past couple of years, it will only take another
fall in the property market for this to increase again. While everyone
seems to be looking forward it is important to keep one eye on the risks
involved in any business venture involving property.
Two of the key areas of protection are professional indemnity insurance
and directors’ and officers’ (DO) liability insurance. For professional
service providers, the professional indemnity insurance is vital in the
event of allegations of negligence; for those representing investors, the
pressure directors are under is considerable and ensuring the right DO
cover is in place is equally important. Whenever a venture goes wrong
and a deal does not go the way it is expect to, the blame culture is alive
and thriving. It is during the boom times that professionals need to
remain vigilant and ensure the economic momentum does not lead
them to make many of the same mistakes made less than a decade ago.
Our expertise in this area helps people to realise their ambitions by
analysing the potential downside and making sure this is either managed
or transferred to insurers. History has a habit of repeating itself all too
often and it will be interesting to see when the next economic cycle begins.
For more information, please contact:
Colin Taylor
Executive Director, FINEX Global
+44 (0)20 3193 9418
colin.s.taylor@willis.com
MAINTAINING Professional
vigilance
12 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015

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Big data and proper data handling procedures

  • 1. Features BIG DATA Is the property sector making the most of big data?.................................2 GAME CHANGER: THE 2015 INSURANCE ACT A special feature by guest contributor John Hurrell, CEO of AIRMIC.......................4 EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE CHANGE Building resilience around natural hazards and climate change..................6 Q&A WITH JON LOVELL OF HILLBREAK How sustainability cannot be an after-thought.................11 Plus other articles and insights Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015www.willis.co.uk
  • 2. Big data refers to computer analysis of data sets too large for the human mind to process. Trends and patterns, which computer algorithms spot, can offer businesses powerful insight allowing them to be more efficient, to better understand their customers or spot trends they may otherwise have missed. By making better decisions, companies can reduce costs, risks and improve their efficiency. A variety of industries have been tapping into big data for years. Insurers are able to study data to model the likelihood of claims arising from different scenarios, such as extreme weather. City traders crunch numbers in real time to buy and sell investments through largely automated systems. The world of real estate is clearly less fast- moving than equities. Yet the sector actually has a big data machine that was in use decades before music streaming or online insurance businesses became popular. Big data: Is the property sector making the most of it? IPD, the benchmarking and analytics firm formerly known as Investment Property Databank, crunches property rent, value and management cost data, allowing investors to compare their performance against a benchmark. While it is routinely used by major investors and fund managers, it does not cover the entire market. Properties in the mid and low end – not the kind typically held by the major funds – are excluded, meaning there is little oversight of many riskier areas of the market. Unlike equities or commodities, property is a far more complex asset. The occupier can make a huge impact on returns, so understanding their business performance versus their sector can also be crucial. With rules over energy efficiency tightening over the next two years, better understanding a building’s energy performance when occupied will also be key for investors and lenders. For those exposed to hundreds of properties, being able to slice and dice data is a much better way to properly understand the diversity of risk across their portfolio. The benefits of big data By lagging behind in adopting big data, property companies could be in danger of exposing themselves to potential risks. In a recent survey of 300 real estate managers, Canadian real estate advisory firm Altus Group, found that $11 trillion of real estate assets are being managed by manually inputted spread-sheets. The errors and risks possibly arising from this state of affairs are numerous, ranging from simple clerical mistakes to rampant, criminal abuse by employees. But property firms and investors can harness big data to give profounder insights into the risks their business may face. 2 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
  • 3. Generating insights Investors in real estate, such as fund managers and private equity houses, will have large portfolios that they may not be tracking at a granular level. Big data allows asset managers to see if their portfolio has the right mix of exposure to different risks and indeed, different assets. Real estate is a complex asset that can play a variety of roles in a portfolio, such as adding a defensive element or offering index-linked income to counterweight more volatile elements of a multi-asset portfolio. Crucially, rigorous analysis can help ensure investors are hitting a particular asset class at the optimal opportunity. The data can also help firms engage with and understand their regulatory risk. With the minimum energy efficiency standards (MEES) soon set to be introduced in Europe, property managers will need to understand exactly how large their risk of being hit by fines is for not meeting the standards. By using big data they can easily track what percentage of their portfolio needs to be brought up to the new standards, and which properties have to be prioritised. Smart buildings Big data also enables smart buildings. By using a variety of sensors, smart buildings can merge a variety of normally independent operating systems – from heating to lighting – to maximise efficiency and performance. Data captured across this broad spectrum can also give insights across the building’s entire lifecycle, from conception and construction, through tenancy and to demolition. Insights about whether space is being under utilised can be gleaned from this, including tracking the parts of an office being occupied via the use of sensors. This can identify idle space that could be better made use of. By using big data to shine a light on trends like this, a firm can rationalise its costs. Fundamentally, this could be as simple as making sure the building’s main lights are switched off once everyone has left. Macro vs Micro Big data can be used at both the macro and micro level. Particularly for micro applications, the real benefit is that it can be used in real time, and so can inform business decisions today, not tomorrow. Appraisers would find value in adopting big data in this way. The insights gleaned from it can find what price points the market is at - whether properties are selling above average or below average. Given that there are so many data sources for appraisers, using it to condense them not only saves time, it allows more accurate thought to be given to the state of the market. Managing data risk Properly harnessing big data also involves having strict rules in place around its use. Training staff in proper data handling procedures is vital, as is ensuring that any IT system has adequate safeguards in place to prevent either internal or external theft. While not using big data is a risk, being hacked and losing that information is also a danger that is worth protecting against. But with the correct infrastructure in place, it can give companies a holistic understanding of their business, help reduce risk and ensure they’re maximising their efficiencies. For more information, please contact: Paul Turnbull Head of Client Services, Real Estate Practice +44 (0)20 3124 6253 turnbullp@willis.com Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 3 “Training staff in proper data handling procedures is vital, as is ensuring that any IT system has adequate safeguards in place to prevent either internal or external theft.”
  • 4. A game changer: The2015InsuranceAct AspecialfeaturebyourguestcontributorJohnHurrell,CEO,AIRMIC The 2015 Insurance Act has been years in the making and the end product is a fantastic result for all in the market. Most importantly, it creates a new legal framework for commercial insurance that will give policyholders added protection. But for all parties – buyer, seller and broker – there is a lot of work still to be done to ensure a smooth transition when the changes come into force in August next year. Why is it so important? Under the current out-of-date legal framework, many policyholders are frustrated that they do not have reasonable certainty that policies will pay out if needed. This is largely because insurers have draconian powers to avoid paying large claims for trivial or irrelevant reasons. As many insurance buyers will know from first-hand experience, the use of basis clauses and warranties can mean that if a company makes an innocent but trivial mistake, like the misspelling of a name, their insurer is legally entitled to void the policy. Similarly, claims may be refused because the buyer has failed to provide all material information at the time of purchase – even when it had not been requested by the insurer. It would only be fair to say that the old system works most of the time. Generally speaking insurers will pay out whenever they think their client has acted in good faith, but there is no guarantee that this will happen. And what is the point of insurance if it does not give you total confidence that it will support you in your moment of need? SMEs are especially vulnerable to insurers who may choose to exploit loopholes in the law since they have less buying power and therefore less clout with insurers and probably do not have the same close relations with their underwriters as the large multi-national companies. The Act is therefore a game-changer. When it comes into force next year it will protect any policyholder who acts in good faith but may have overlooked some technicality. It will also bring the UK into line with most other markets. 4 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015 SPECIAL FEATURE
  • 5. By and large, the insurance market has been positive and responsive. They have recognised that the UK is out of step with the rest of the world and the provisions of the current regime under the 1906 Act are indefensible. Certain parts of the London specialty market have been resistant to some of the changes but now that the Act is law, I’m expecting the market to embrace it with enthusiasm. Indeed, although underwriters have until next August, many large insurers are already underwriting according to the terms of the new law. Although the reform is overwhelmingly good news for policyholders, there are obligations for insurance buyers as well as underwriters. For example, the Act makes clear that insurance buyers will have a duty to disclose “every material circumstances they know or ought to know”, and ensure the information is presented in a “clear and accessible” manner. Indeed, it is important to stress that the new legal framework will still require commercial insurance buyers to behave in a professional, thorough manner and to provide accurate information. That means going through the policy line-by-line with your professional advisers and making sure that it will do what you want. Perhaps not the most exciting job in the world, but it could save you a lot of disappointment. To ensure they are in the best position to take advantage of the changes, Airmic is urging all insurance managers to make careful preparations well before the law takes effect, and to talk to their brokers and underwriters as soon as possible. Ensuring a smooth transition will require market-wide cooperation. The Act represents huge change and with any change there is uncertainty and ambiguity. Buyers, brokers and underwriters need to have open and frank discussions about how they are interpreting wordings, what their expectations are from the various parties and how they expect market norms to evolve. For example, policyholders need to check that their insurers are comfortable with their interpretation of what constitutes fair presentation of risk under the new law, while insurers should be asking what more they can do to share their views on what they consider acceptable. All sides of the market will need to ask themselves what is an acceptable process for a policyholder to undertake to satisfy a “reasonable search”. We are now less than 12 months away and it’s better to have conversations with brokers and underwriters now rather than as the deadline approaches. This will be vital to ensure a successful transition for all. The 2015 Insurance Act There are three core changes that will come into force in August 2016: Fair presentation of risk The bill amends the duty on business policyholders to disclose risk information to insurers before entering into an insurance contract, introducing a duty of ‘fair presentation’ of the risk. The new law also provides proportionate remedies in cases where the duty of fair presentation has been breached. For example, if the breach was accidental but the insurer would have entered into the contract in full anyway, the insurer still has to pay out in full. However, if the insurer would have still entered the contract but on different terms, the insurer may proportionately reduce the amount to be paid on a claim. If the breach is deemed reckless or deliberate, the insurer can avoid the contract and keep the premium. Warranties The bill abolishes “basis of the contract” clauses, which have the effect of converting pre-contractual information supplied to insurers into warranties without further discussion. It also provides that the insurer’s liability should be suspended, rather than discharged entirely, in the event of a breach of warranty. The new law also prevents an insurer from relying on non-compliance with a warranty as grounds for avoiding liability for a loss of an entirely different kind than that envisaged by the warranty. For example, it would no longer be viable to avoid paying a claim for fire damage simply because the burglar alarm was not switched on as the two are clearly unrelated. Fraudulent claims The bill provides the insurer with clear, robust remedies when a policyholder submits a fraudulent claim. “Generally speaking insurers will pay out whenever they think their client has acted in good faith, but there is no guarantee that this will happen.” Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 5 i
  • 6. A changing climate and rapidly growing exposure to natural catastrophes presents the world with an unprecedented challenge. Natural events such as floods and windstorms have caused widespread damage to properties across Europe over the last few decades. Impacted further through the effects of climate change and globalised economies, these losses are likely to increase over time. Such trends can already be seen when we look at economic and insured losses as a result of natural disasters over the last 60 years. From a pre-loss perspective we can consider the ways in which real estate owners and occupiers can help identify highly exposed facilities, estimate likely losses, ensure adequate insurance cover is in place and derive solutions to mitigate future risks. Building Resilience around Natural Hazards and Climate Change Extreme weather events Real estate values are being increasingly threatened by extreme weather events, such as storms, hail, flooding, droughts, tropical cyclones, and landslides. The risk of flooding has always been present for buildings close to rivers or coastlines. We also see an increase in flood risks for real estate portfolios caused by a change in governmental planning strategies and policies. For example, in the UK, land on a flood plain may now be considered for new real estate developments given the pressure to provide new living space in a country with a very high population density. In addition, climate change as a direct consequence of global warming is anticipated to increase the future frequency and severity of flooding and storms (Foresight, 2004; Stern, 2006; IPCC 2013). Flooding can result from a number of different causes – heavy rain, river, and coastal flooding all having the potential to result in damage to buildings and associated contents. It has, for example, been reported that the number of extreme weather events has doubled globally since the 1980s to an average of over 800 events per year during the past decade. It has been reported that the monetary losses relating to real estate properties and infrastructure systems impacted from severe weather events have tripled globally during the past decade, with direct losses reported from the insurance markets as amounting to USD150 billion (EUR109.5 billion) per year. 6 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
  • 7. Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 7 This would imply there’s a need to have a greater awareness and understanding of the broader impact and consequential effects these events can have on a real estate portfolio so that corporation- wide they are treated as a strategic issue. In this context, we are frequently asked by real estate clients about whether a severe 1:100 year return period flood or windstorm event will be more frequent in the not too distant future and what steps can be taken to make the property portfolio more resilient against these severe events. New analytical tools Today tools and processes exist to help real estate owners and occupiers identify climate related risks such as flooding, to the extent that they gain a reasonable understanding of the potential losses to a given portfolio and look at solutions to help them make more informed decisions around their risk management needs, whether that is to set risk retention and insurance limits or to aid risk mitigation strategies and improve operational resilience. This can be achieved through the use of appropriate geospatial mapping techniques to visualise the properties that may be in or out of a specific flood zone, coupled with probabilistic modelling to determine the expected losses the portfolio could suffer when considering a wide range of possible flood events that could occur. Such models are already widely used and have been for several years within the insurance market to assist with risk transfer decisions. They can also help identify which specific properties within a real estate portfolio are actually driving the overall portfolio exposure, for example on an average annual loss (AAL) basis. Once individual sites have been identified these may further benefit from a ‘deeper-dive’ site inspection and risk assessment to help uncover local vulnerabilities, estimate the property damage and business interruption (loss of rent) losses in more depth and provide recommendations to help reduce future risks at the site. The resilience of a facility to respond to a natural catastrophe will also come down to having appropriate business continuity and emergency response plans in place to minimise the potential downtime from a major flood or storm and safeguard the wellbeing of occupiers. Willis uses all of the above approaches to advise clients and to assist in the pre-loss evaluation and risk management strategies of major real estate portfolios in Europe and further afield. For more information, please contact: Marc Lehmann Lead Partner, Strategic Risk Consulting +44 (0)20 3124 6697 marc.lehmann@willis.com “It has been reported that the monetary losses relating to real estate properties and infrastructure systems impacted from severe weather events have tripled globally during the past decade, with direct losses reported from the insurance markets as amounting to USD150 billion (EUR109.5 billion) per year.”
  • 8. THE RISK OF SANCTIONS Sanctions are punitive measures imposed on a country by foreign governments. They can entail trading embargoes as well as freezing the assets of certain individuals or companies. Any business that has dealings with a sanctioned country risks being affected. International sanctions have the ability to take even the most risk aware by surprise. For example, at the start of 2014, no one would have foreseen sanctions being imposed against Russia. But, after unrest in the Russia-Ukrainian area began in late February, the US, Canada and the European Union decided to impose sanctions in March against Russia. Anybody with investment in, or from, Russia would have then had to very quickly judge how much risk the sanctions exposed them to. This would involve checking whether any assets are connected to the sanctions, which could include Russian investors named under the sanctions with links to investments. Real estate risks Real estate focused businesses should still ensure adequate provisions as the unpredictability of sanctions make it vital to be prepared. For developers and investors, financial sanctions are the most likely sanction that will affect them, as property deals are unlikely to be affected by trade sanctions concerned with the flow of commodities. Financial sanctions generally entail asset-freeze measures affecting the provision of funds and economic resources to and from political regimes or certain individuals. The risk property firms face is that they have either received investment from, or have invested in, the country under sanctions. This could involve a sanctioned investor trying to buy up expensive flats in Knightsbridge, or receiving funds from an off-shore trust fund that has links to a company or individual named under sanctions. How much a real estate investor or developer is affected by these measures is largely dependent on which jurisdiction they are doing business in. Broad sanctions have been imposed against certain countries such as Iran, Sudan and Syria. Broad sanctions effectively target entire countries and industries therefore making it very difficult to conduct business within these areas. However, the risks are lowered once these types of countries are removed from the equation. With the introduction of smart sanctions in the early 1990s, it has been possible to target specific individuals or companies. From a policy perspective, this is an attempt by the West to reduce any collateral damage sanctions may have outside the country. 8 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015
  • 9. Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 9 Smart sanctions In Egypt for example, where smart sanctions are imposed, only around 20 people are subject to asset freeze sanctions. Therefore unless a property investor is actively doing business with or dealing with funds or economic resources which belong to, or which are owned, held or controlled by one of these individuals, their risk of exposure is low. Despite smart sanctions looking to reduce any unwarranted damages, the risk of being affected still remains if any ties to countries under them are present. In September 2014, one of Turkey’s best known and largest banks, Denizbank SA, had its routine transactions suddenly stopped due to the Russian sanctions because its owner is a Russian company. After intensive lobbying, the US Treasury granted an exemption for the bank. This example reinforces the fact that due diligence should be carried out on any transaction or investment. It is crucial to carry out extensive background checks into any joint venture partners before concluding any deal or investment to calibrate whether they pose a sanctions related risk to your business. An example of this could be that a property firm receives investment from a Russian backer to invest in prime property in west London. A thorough scouring of the prospective investor should be carried out to ensure that the investor is not one of or has links to the individuals or companies targeted under financial sanctions. Knowing who your clients are is vital to ensure that sanctions do not affect your business. “For investors or developers, a sudden imposition of sanctions could mean that they have to postpone plans for investment or development in a jurisdiction. In this way, sanctions can represent an opportunity cost for businesses.” New business Sanctions can also come into play where businesses are able to start new ventures, investments or developments. For example, it would be very unlikely that Willis would be able to offer any type of insurance cover for a new investment, including acquisition or extension of ownership of real estate and entities located in Crimea and Sevastopol. For investors or developers, a sudden imposition of sanctions could mean that they have to postpone plans for investment or development in a jurisdiction. In this way, sanctions can represent an opportunity cost for businesses. DIRECTORS AND ULTIMATE BENEFICIAL OWNERS It is also important to conduct ‘know your client’ checks on the directors of the company you are intending to do business with, along with their ultimate beneficial owners. This is because a company that is owned 50 percent or more by a sanctioned person or entity, even if the company itself is not sanctioned, results in sanctions status of the designate party passing indirectly to the non-sanctioned company. Another risk is if a sanctioned director exercises de facto control over the company in question. If this threshold is met the sanctions status of the director can pass indirectly to the company rendering it designated as well. Whilst the threat of sanctions may not be immediate for property firms and investors, especially compared to other industries, it is important to ensure that due diligence is carried out prior to any deal to avert any potential risk. Businesses should also be aware of the macro political environment, and define the limits of their risk appetite before embarking on any new line of business. For more information, please contact: Mark Noble Head of Sales, Real Estate Practice +44 (0)20 3124 8509 mark.noble@willis.com
  • 10. 10 Real Estate Risk Insights Spring 2015 It is easy perhaps to consider political risk only in the context of far-flung, less economically developed nations. Mining giant Rio Tinto experienced multiple delays waiting to receive approval from the Mongolian government for a roughly USD4 billion expansion of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. These delays meant postponing agreed financing, which led to the risk that the project would never complete. But political risk is also a threat here in the UK. The recent shifts in the political landscape have understandably made many businesses nervous about increased political risk in the country. Jeremy Corbyn’s unlikely ascent to the Labour leadership, the rise of the SNP in Scotland and the threat of Britain leaving the European Union, all make the UK’s political future more uncertain and unclear than it has ever been. For build to rent developers and their institutional investors, UK political risk boils down to two distinct arenas: central government policy and local politics. Central and local government Decisions made at a central level set the tone for decisions made further down the line, and can lead to significant reforms. For build to rent developers and investors, there are several crucial policy areas that central government can affect. Changes to tax legislation, such as the stamp duty reforms on the bulk purchase of rented units have encouraged large investors. A reversal of this policy could see investor appetite reduce for build to rent schemes. The same applies to recent subsidies, such as the Housing and Communities Agency’s build to rent fund, where the government shares the risk and bridges finance for these schemes. This has been popular with large institutions looking to enter the sector. Just as ‘help to buy’ is a mortgage subsidy scheme for people with a small deposit, such schemes are created to spike up demand from buyers and investors and can be scrapped at short notice. Left-wing politicians also tend to push for higher land taxes, which would deter investment as developments can become less fiscally feasible. At the local level, it is the councils that have the control. However, they are often influenced by central government policy. With Corbyn calling for more affordable housing, the risk is that sympathetic councils will follow suit, making schemes unviable, with development eventually grinding to a halt. Mayors and their powers Directly elected mayors, such as in London, have devolved powers that include setting budgets, overseeing major projects and directing policy. For London, and as will be the case for Manchester when the Mayor is elected in 2017, those powers extend to dictating the pace and types of housing development. Other cities, such as Sheffield, are looking to go down a similar path of devolution of power. The motivation for Sheffield is the potential control of roughly GBP900 million in central government money over the next 30 years. In London, the policies of Labour mayoral nominee Sadiq Khan, MP for Tooting, show little appreciation of the reality of the London housing market. One of Khan’s policy aims is to introduce a London living rent, which would link rents to a third of average incomes. He also wants the mayor to have the power to freeze private sector rents. With London a prime target for professionally developed and managed rental schemes, the risk of a Khan victory must be taken into any business case assumptions. Given that developers of the private rented sector (PRS) and their financial backers will have made certain financial assumptions based on rents, any potential rent cap – which Corbyn is also in favour of – is a risk that they cannot ignore. Thankfully, most economists across the political spectrum consider rent controls to be misguided for the simple fact that they end up reducing available housing stock. Largely speaking, the main political risk factors for developers are local planning and potentially punitive taxes on land, which the left often threaten. For the institutional funded rental sector, the major threat is of a Khan and Corbyn rent control regime, or punitive affordable housing requirements which take no notice of the fact that building for rent is not like building for sale. But with the UK having 9 million renters – a figure that continues to rise – there is hope that the arguments for a better rental sector will be listened to by those in power. Edward Brown is an Account Director within Willis’ Real Estate Practice. The risk of the unexpected byEdwardBrown 10 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015 OPINION
  • 11. QAwith Jon Lovell, Co-Founder, Hillbreak Hillbreak was founded in 2015 to advise and train businesses and their people, as well as policy-makers, on the risks and value creation opportunities to be found in effectively addressing environmental, social and governance issues. Before launching Hillbreak, founders Jon Lovell and Miles Keeping led professional service firm Deloitte’s global and UK real estate sustainability practice What risks does sustainability pose to real estate? Environmental, Social Governance (ESG) issues introduce a multitude of risks throughout the entire real estate cycle. The performance of real estate assets, in both investment and occupational terms, is threatened by issues ranging from climate change to resource scarcity, and from technology disruption to urban demographic shifts. Are investors demanding more from real estate investment managers? There’s no question that investors are turning the screws on their fund and investment managers, especially those with a long-term view. There is a clear expectation now that fund managers, and indeed corporate owners, are more transparent about their non-financial performance. A good number of investors are also probing for reassurances that relevant risks are being systematically identified and addressed. How aware should investors and developers be about climate change? The financial costs already arising from extreme weather events, which are increasing materially as a result of climate change, are quite staggering. Recent Urban Land Institute research has found that over the last 10 years, direct monies lost on real estate and infrastructure has tripled, with losses now standing at about USD150 billion a year. Winter 2015 Real Estate Risk Insights 11 That’s saying nothing for the indirect costs to business and communities, which dwarf those that are measured. Of course, the effects of climate change extend far beyond damage and disruption from extreme events. As climates change, the function of many buildings, including the cost of running them and the comfort and well-being of people using them, will become undermined. Rates of depreciation and obsolescence will almost certainly accelerate. Make up your own mind on whether that’s something to be aware of! How much of the risk generated by sustainability is linked to regulation? Despite retraction in some areas, regulations are tightening and will continue to do so. As stricter new standards come in, the gap in performance between newer stock and older stock should widen. In my view though, regulation per se is not the real risk. It’s the uncertainty, volatility and inadequate enforcement of regulation which causes problems for the market. There is, without question, a need for governments to better manage policy succession and delivery. But Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards (MEES), in particular, is a concern for many? Certainly, MEES, which kicks in from 2018, is a really important one to get ready for; as things stand, nearly a fifth of buildings with an Energy Performance Certificate rating fall below the minimum threshold. The fundamentals of the regulation are pretty clear, but how it will be implemented and interface with certain property dynamics is less so. Guidance is needed from the government urgently as MEES is impacting on fund strategies, transactions and asset plans now. Without much time to plan that leaves businesses facing avoidable opportunity costs. What steps should a company be taking to reduce its sustainability risks? That’s a big question, and will depend on the circumstances of each and every organisation. There are some key ‘base’ ingredients though: executive leadership, internal education, stakeholder engagement, systematic risk assessment etc. We’ve helped many organisations to reduce risks, create value and optimise the opex and capex balance, ensuring that they and their stakeholders are more resilient and profitable. We have noticed that some of our real estate clients might have research teams looking at global mega-trends to inform their investment strategies, whilst sustainability teams are looking at the performance and resilience of their standing portfolios. These are not always joined up as effectively as they could be, and that would be something to look at.
  • 12. This Real Estate Risk Insights publication offers a general overview of its subject matter. It does not necessarily address every aspect of its subject or every product available in the market. It is not intended to be, and should not be, used to replace specific advice relating to individual situations and we do not offer, and this should not be seen as, legal, accounting or tax advice. If you intend to take any action or make any decision on the basis of the content of this publication you should first seek specific advice from an appropriate professional. Some of the information in this publication may be compiled from third party sources we consider to be reliable, however we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. The information given in this publication is believed to be accurate at the time of publication shown at the front of this document. This information may have subsequently changed or have been superseded, and should not be relied upon to be accurate or suitable after this date. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the Willis Group. Copyright Willis Limited 2015. All rights reserved. Willis Real Estate Practice is a trading name of Willis Limited, Registered number: 181116 England and Wales. Registered address: 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ. A Lloyd’s Broker. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority for its general insurance mediation activities only. FP1964 14845/10/15 ABOUT US Willis is one of the UK’s leading insurance and risk advisers. We have offices throughout the UK and over 400 offices worldwide, with regional teams located close to our clients. Our Real Estate Practice retains one of the largest teams dedicated to serving the insurance and risk management needs of the property sector in the UK. We arrange insurance for property values exceeding ÂŁ100 billion and place ÂŁ100 million of premium into the market. Our depth of understanding and insight into how organisations in the property sector create and maintain value allows us to provide innovative solutions in the following specialist areas: construction, legal indemnities, environmental liabilities, transactional liabilities and the delivery of service across Europe. CONTACT US We would love to hear what you think about Real Estate Risk Insights. If you have any colleagues who would like to subscribe to future editions of the newsletter, please get in touch. +44 (0)20 3124 6330 rep@willis.com www.willis.co.uk The past few years has seen a resurgence of activity in the real estate sector. With equity markets continuing to come under pressure, UK property is still seen as a safe haven for investors. The stability of the legal, economic and political environment provides a welcoming marketplace for investment and this continues to push the market forward. It was only seven to eight years ago, however, that we saw the property market fall following the credit crunch; boom and bust was said to have been driven out of the economy yet the amount of litigation that followed the property fall was considerable. Claims against surveyors, property managers and lawyers were frequent and although the number of claims has reduced in the past couple of years, it will only take another fall in the property market for this to increase again. While everyone seems to be looking forward it is important to keep one eye on the risks involved in any business venture involving property. Two of the key areas of protection are professional indemnity insurance and directors’ and officers’ (DO) liability insurance. For professional service providers, the professional indemnity insurance is vital in the event of allegations of negligence; for those representing investors, the pressure directors are under is considerable and ensuring the right DO cover is in place is equally important. Whenever a venture goes wrong and a deal does not go the way it is expect to, the blame culture is alive and thriving. It is during the boom times that professionals need to remain vigilant and ensure the economic momentum does not lead them to make many of the same mistakes made less than a decade ago. Our expertise in this area helps people to realise their ambitions by analysing the potential downside and making sure this is either managed or transferred to insurers. History has a habit of repeating itself all too often and it will be interesting to see when the next economic cycle begins. For more information, please contact: Colin Taylor Executive Director, FINEX Global +44 (0)20 3193 9418 colin.s.taylor@willis.com MAINTAINING Professional vigilance 12 Real Estate Risk Insights Winter 2015