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Essencia 18 juni 2014 presentatie preview construct
1.
“Preview op de
bouwsector 18 juni 2014
2.
PREVIEW CONSTRUCT Bieke Gepts Essencia
3.
Woningbouw nieuwbouw Vergunningen 2,9 -11,7 -2,4 -13,7 9,6 -11,0 5,5 4,7 40,2 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 06
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wijziging - van jaren (%) -100 tot -50 -50 tot -20 -20 tot -10 -10 tot 0 0 tot 10 10 tot 20 20 tot 50 50 tot 100 +13% % t.o.v. zelfde periode vorige jaar (Σ mrt-feb) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Maand Maandgemiddelde 12 maanden Conjuncturele evolutie in 1.000 woningen
4.
Woningbouw nieuwbouw Vergunningen Eengezinswoningen Meergezinswoningen +9% +16% 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 06
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Maand Maandgemiddelde 12 maanden Conjuncturele evolutie in 1.000 woningen -4,2 -10,4 2,0 -10,8 11,4 -13,2 4,8 -4,2 59,3 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wijziging - van jaren (%) 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Maand Maandgemiddelde 12 maanden Conjuncturele evolutie in 1.000 woningen 9,1 -12,8 -5,8 -16,1 8,0 -9,0 6,2 12,5 22,9 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wijziging - van jaren (%)
5.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1/12/2002 1/04/2003 1/08/2003 1/12/2003 1/04/2004 1/08/2004 1/12/2004 1/04/2005 1/08/2005 1/12/2005 1/04/2006 1/08/2006 1/12/2006 1/04/2007 1/08/2007 1/12/2007 1/04/2008 1/08/2008 1/12/2008 1/04/2009 1/08/2009 1/12/2009 1/04/2010 1/08/2010 1/12/2010 1/04/2011 1/08/2011 1/12/2011 1/04/2012 1/08/2012 1/12/2012 1/04/2013 1/08/2013 1/12/2013 Open Halfopen Gesloten
Appartement Verhouding tussen de woningtypes 50% 5% 9% 24%36% 57% 6% 55% 10% 28% 6% 13% 51% 7% 12% 30%
6.
Woningbouw renovatie Vergunningen < -50 -50
tot -20 -20 tot -10 -10 tot 0 0 tot 10 10 tot 20 20 tot 50 > 50 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Maand Maandgemiddelde 12 maanden Conjuncturele evolutie in 1.000 woningen 4,4 -6,0 2,0 -4,3 5,0 -6,4 -0,4 3,4 26,5 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wijziging - van jaren (%) +7% % t.o.v. zelfde periode vorige jaar (Σ mrt-feb)
7.
Woningbouw renovatie Reconversie naar
residentiële gebouwen 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Appartementen Eengezinswoningen
8.
Utiliteitsbouw nieuwbouw Vergunningen 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 06 07
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Maand Maandgemiddelde 12 maanden Conjuncturele evolutie in 1.000.000 m³ 3,4 28,8 -7,1 -7,2 -2,2 -3,6 2,2 -9,6 -8,3 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Wijziging - van jaren (%) < -50 -50 tot -20 -20 tot -10 -10 tot 0 0 tot 10 10 tot 20 20 tot 50 > 50 % t.o.v. zelfde periode vorige jaar (Σ mrt-feb)
9.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1/12/2000 1/05/2001 1/10/2001 1/03/2002 1/08/2002 1/01/2003 1/06/2003 1/11/2003 1/04/2004 1/09/2004 1/02/2005 1/07/2005 1/12/2005 1/05/2006 1/10/2006 1/03/2007 1/08/2007 1/01/2008 1/06/2008 1/11/2008 1/04/2009 1/09/2009 1/02/2010 1/07/2010 1/12/2010 1/05/2011 1/10/2011 1/03/2012 1/08/2012 1/01/2013 1/06/2013 1/11/2013 Land- en tuinbouw,
veeteelt Kantoren Industrie Handel en horeca Andere Verhouding tussen de gebouwtypes 7% 64% 8% 26% 15% 13% 61% 8% 6% 19% 48% 6% 6% 5% 8%
10.
Hoe vertaalt dit
zich naar bouwproductie ?
11.
Bouwproductie - Prognose Bouwproductie Woningbehoefte Woningstock Hypotheekrente OLO Besteedbaar inkomen Particuliere bestedingen BBP Belgische Conjunctuur Inflatie Consumenten- vertrouwen Fiscale parameters Internationale Conjunctuur Werkgelegenheid Bouwkosten Quotiteit Spaargedrag Investeringen
in woningen Overheids- investeringen Bedrijfs- investeringen Uitval Gezinsgrootte Spaargedrag Aandelenmarkt …
12.
Woningbouw nieuwbouw Opgeleverde 13,9% 12,2%
7,4% -9,3% -6,2% -9,7% 6,5% -16,8% 13,7% 2,9% -11,7% -2,4% -13,7% 9,6% -11,0% 5,5% 4,7% -3,1% -0,9% 4,6% -3,2% -1,3% 0,7% 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 45 000 50 000 55 000 60 000 65 000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Opgeleverd Opgeleverd voorspeld Vergund Nieuwbouw - Vergunde en opgeleverde woningen Aantal, %-wijziging t.o.v. vorig jaar Bron: ADSEI, Essencia
13.
Woningbouw renovatie Opgeleverde -2,4% 6,3%
-2,4% -0,9% -1,6% 0,9% -3,0% -5,4% 1,5% 4,4% -6,0% 2,1% 4,3% 5,0% -6,4% -0,4% 4,3% 0,1% 5,2% 5,9% 1,3% 3,0% 1,2% 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Opgeleverd Opgeleverd voorspeld Vergund Renovatie - Vergunde en opgeleverde woningen Aantal, %-wijziging t.o.v. vorig jaar Bron: ADSEI, Essencia
14.
Utiliteitsbouw nieuwbouw Opgeleverde 4,5% 13,8%
1,2% 14,2% 2,8% -14,5% -15,5% 9,2% 8,3% -4,5% 28,7% -7,1% -7,1% -2,2% -3,6% 2,2% -9,1% 2,1% -6,0% 4,2% 2,2% 2,7% 2,8% 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Opgeleverd Opgeleverd voorspeld Vergund Nieuwbouw - Vergunde en opgeleverde utiliteitsgebouwen 1.000 m³, %-wijziging t.o.v. vorig jaar Bron: ADSEI, Essencia
15.
BEDANKT VOOR UW
AANWEZIGHEID EN INTERESSE !
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